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Post by artman1033 on Oct 16, 2012 16:14:17 GMT -8
Please forgive me if this was already posted. The important tidbits are highlighted in BOLD. Apple (AAPL) could have a better outlook than expected when it forecasts fiscal Q1/calendar Q4 results a week from Thursday, October 25th, according to a note this morning from Jefferies & Co.’s Peter Misek. Misek cites lead times of 3 to 4 weeks in the 31 countries where the iPhone is available, and estimates Apple is producing 500,000 units of the iPhone 5 a day. Writes Misek, “We believe CQ4 iPhone builds have been raised for the first time since the iPhone 5 launch from 55-60M to 60-65M.” He’s sticking with a projection for 55 million units to be shipped last quarter.The October earnings call (which reports on 4Q12 for Apple, July thru Sept. '12) should see about 25-30MM IPhones sold. It is the Jan '13 earnings call (which reports the 1Q13 for Apple, or Oct. thru Dec. '12) that should see the 55MM number. My point: Peter usually sandbags the guidance. With an extra 2 days of "actual" results on the books, and a "possible" larger number of iPhone5s in production, Peter MAY give a higher Guidance for the current quarter (which is the quarter Peter will be giving guidance on.) (DARN! Mark is correct in his post below mine. I have corrected my post.)
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 16, 2012 16:31:38 GMT -8
Artman, Apple is only two days late on when they would have normally reported. They had to introduce the mini before the CC to be able to include it in their guidance I believe.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 16, 2012 16:50:57 GMT -8
Artman, Apple is only two days late on when they would have normally reported. They had to introduce the mini before the CC to be able to include it in their guidance I believe. I don't think ANY sales of the mini iPad for the current quarter will be significant in Peter's guidance.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 16, 2012 16:54:41 GMT -8
I'm modelling 7 M iPad Mini's at ASP of 350. A number of extra dimes in the EPS.
Peter Oppenheimer's guidance may be dependent on pre-orders. If pre-orders open before the guidance call, then he has a clue worth reporting on.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 16, 2012 16:56:09 GMT -8
I think this week/month just has too much open interest to allow that much of a shuffle. Next week's OI, however, should rise considerably. M-Th should be interesting. I think I will sell some February puts on Thursday before close. Right now I think the most likely thing is that huge swell at $650 will hold and we'll pin there. But given today's surge, I'll certainly be interested to see what happens tomorrow. If we gap up and run to $660 or higher, will it hold, or will there be frantic shuffling up? From you I've learned what to expect from OI late-week vs Fri close. Now I'm interested in watching how things change mid-week. (Realizing of course that this is not a normal Fri close coming up...) I dunno, a big call wall this week, and lots of news to compete with, lots of earnings releases, etc (Jesus, the C in CNBC today stood for Citi). I think/hope the news cycle next week will be more Apple-centric with the actual Mini event plus earnings. Plus, less and higher calls = get on the train before it leaves the station.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 16, 2012 17:56:35 GMT -8
Quite frankly - I was glad to see Citi in the news all day today. Once in a blue moon it's nice not to have these idiots bringing up every damn tiny negative piece of news on AAPL. I needed a break, thanks for resigning today Vikram.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 16, 2012 18:10:14 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 16, 2012 18:20:56 GMT -8
I don't think the Nikkei, Hang Seng, etc. generally move the markets as much as react to what happened, at least mid-week.
Futures are neutralish right now, which is fine.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 16, 2012 18:41:31 GMT -8
I'm modelling 7 M iPad Mini's at ASP of 350. A number of extra dimes in the EPS. Peter Oppenheimer's guidance may be dependent on pre-orders. If pre-orders open before the guidance call, then he has a clue worth reporting on. CL4, only 7, hmmmmm. I think they sell 2 million in the first weekend. I am going with 8-9 mil for the qtr. Average ASP a little higher because I believe the higher end models will impact the numbers at first. (The early adopters thing.) I am going with $400 ASP x 8.5 mil = 3.4 bil. Not even a full qtr and it will outdo the entire ipod line. All depends, but could range from .50c-70c EPS to Q1. Nothing ground breaking, but I will take all I can get.
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Post by ccs on Oct 16, 2012 18:55:00 GMT -8
A little Apple in the debate tonight..... interesting
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 16, 2012 18:55:47 GMT -8
I just clicked an x on a pop up block and it opened a page, that is so wrong.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 16, 2012 19:04:25 GMT -8
A little Apple in the debate tonight..... interesting CROWLEY: Mr. President, we have a really short time for a quick discussion here.
iPad, the Macs, the iPhones, they are all manufactured in China. One of the major reasons is labor is so much cheaper here. How do you convince a great American company to bring that manufacturing back here?It is politics. The answers don't need to be posted. The question is WHAT was important.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 16, 2012 19:35:36 GMT -8
A little Apple in the debate tonight..... interesting CROWLEY: Mr. President, we have a really short time for a quick discussion here.
iPad, the Macs, the iPhones, they are all manufactured in China. One of the major reasons is labor is so much cheaper here. How do you convince a great American company to bring that manufacturing back here?It is politics. The answers don't need to be posted. The question is WHAT was important. I didn't like the question. It repeats this meme that corporations' purpose is to create jobs, and made buying Apple products look unpatriotic. No, jobs are a byproduct of corporations. Corporations chief purpose is to (hopefully) create profits to enrich American shareholders, most of whom are happy for some good economic news during these difficult times. I won't discuss the answers unless someone else opens that can of worms.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 16, 2012 19:40:51 GMT -8
I'm modelling 7 M iPad Mini's at ASP of 350. A number of extra dimes in the EPS. Peter Oppenheimer's guidance may be dependent on pre-orders. If pre-orders open before the guidance call, then he has a clue worth reporting on. I disagree that preorders matter. If apple is producing 10M, they will guide to sell 10M. Even if they chose to be conservative and guide for 8M it won't have a huge impact anyhow. The Mini just doesn't have much effect....yet. And by guide, I don't mean they'll guide unit sales, I mean guide EPS that reflects x number of Minis sold.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 16, 2012 19:54:26 GMT -8
JD, the first rule of business is to make a profit. Adding jobs means that a corporation has the need to expand its business. The point was bring the jobs to the US, not whether there should be jobs created. I know you and I will never agree on this topic. I believe corporations have a responsibility to take care of all their employees (provide healthcare, fair and reasonable wages, and decent working conditions). I have owned shares in different companies for 25 years, at no time have I ever felt like I was part owner. That is a joke if there ever was one. I get disgusted when I see a company like AT&T pay out a big dividend every quarter while increasing their debt to incredibly high levels. A company goes public to raise capital for expansion. I feel it should be a requirement that a company can not dilute its share count through compensation. This is just stealing.
Again, you and I will never see eye to eye on this, I don't care. My last job was in manufacturing turning wrenches. I have worked for a living. Thankfully I do not have to do it anymore because I do not think I would have a good quality of life the older I get.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 16, 2012 19:55:50 GMT -8
I'm modelling 7 M iPad Mini's at ASP of 350. A number of extra dimes in the EPS. Peter Oppenheimer's guidance may be dependent on pre-orders. If pre-orders open before the guidance call, then he has a clue worth reporting on. I disagree that preorders matter. If apple is producing 10M, they will guide to sell 10M. Even if they chose to be conservative and guide for 8M it won't have a huge impact anyhow. The Mini just doesn't have much effect....yet. And by guide, I don't mean they'll guide unit sales, I mean guide EPS that reflects x number of Minis sold. The number is small enough that we won't really know if it is included or not.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 16, 2012 20:16:14 GMT -8
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 16, 2012 20:48:49 GMT -8
I disagree that preorders matter. If apple is producing 10M, they will guide to sell 10M. Even if they chose to be conservative and guide for 8M it won't have a huge impact anyhow. The Mini just doesn't have much effect....yet. And by guide, I don't mean they'll guide unit sales, I mean guide EPS that reflects x number of Minis sold. The number is small enough that we won't really know if it is included or not. You're right, we won't know. But it'll be in there, along with everything else Apple sells. I remember someone (I think DT at the old board) tossing out the idea that Apple doesn't include unannounced products in its guidance and he (or whomever) suggested the upcoming (at the time) new iPhone wasn't included in guidance because it hadn't been announced yet. He (or whomever) then went on to produce an EPS estimate for the quarter that was so insanely ridiculously high that everyone on Earth scoffed. And what do you know, the new iPhone was apparently in the guidance even though it hadn't been announced so his (or whomever's) estimate ended up being laughably high. This isn't to pick on DT (or whomever), though, but it is to point out that there's no reason on Earth to provide guidance that doesn't include a particular product. When Apple provides revenue and EPS guidance, I think it's pretty darn safe to assume every product it sells (or will sell) is in the guidance. Someone please slap some sense into me if I'm missing some historical precedent on this. I realize it's almost impossible to prove one way or the other but the one example I recall is detailed above and the outcome was very clear.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 16, 2012 20:52:51 GMT -8
Apple does not give guidance, they insult people.
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Post by chasmac on Oct 16, 2012 21:38:11 GMT -8
I'm modelling 7 M iPad Mini's at ASP of 350. A number of extra dimes in the EPS. Peter Oppenheimer's guidance may be dependent on pre-orders. If pre-orders open before the guidance call, then he has a clue worth reporting on. CL4, only 7, hmmmmm. I think they sell 2 million in the first weekend. I am going with 8-9 mil for the qtr. Average ASP a little higher because I believe the higher end models will impact the numbers at first. (The early adopters thing.) I am going with $400 ASP x 8.5 mil = 3.4 bil. Not even a full qtr and it will outdo the entire ipod line. All depends, but could range from .50c-70c EPS to Q1. Nothing ground breaking, but I will take all I can get. If you can't buy the low end (all sold out), you'll go to the higher priced models at the onset, plus people will be hot to sell them on EBay (new product). They will sell every one they can make and ASPs might not be too bad.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2012 21:48:44 GMT -8
I thought so Monday night, but didn't appreciate what the strength of the break out might be. I missed my entry when AAPL didn't go below $630 in early trading. Then tried to judiciously chase when the strength became apparent. Gave up when AAPL went above $645. Something interesting in Put/Call ratios of the past 2 weeks. On Oct 8, the day before AAPL bottomed at $623.25, Put/Call ratio peaked at 0.98:1. Since then Put/Call ratio has dropped to 0.92:1, the lowest level since before this last WTF sale. A 6 basis point drop is significant. It'll be interesting to see what the ratio is come Monday.
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Post by Zeke on Oct 16, 2012 21:49:35 GMT -8
This may sound naive .... but how in the hell could that invite have "surprised" anyone ? I really don't understand the mentality of the investor who buys in just because of this invite .... to those that did: 1) The earth is round 2) The tooth-fairy does not exist 3) AAPL will be trading above $900 by years end ... ok that one might be a stretch but it's got a pretty good shot ! This is absolute proof of how brain dead the average investor is. When I've made mistakes over the last few years with Apple investments it's been because I mis-timed my moves due to underestimating the cluelessness of the average investor. There will be a huge number of people who won't find out about this event until tomorrow. We've known it was coming for at least several days. It's mind boggling.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2012 21:56:03 GMT -8
I'm actually a little frustrated by Futures. Nearly everything is UP, creating a whole lot of green, EXCEPT US Indexes, which are the laggards tonight. Hopefully, the DOW, NAZ and S&P can redeem themselves before the Open in the morning.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 17, 2012 6:30:01 GMT -8
CROWLEY: Mr. President, we have a really short time for a quick discussion here.
iPad, the Macs, the iPhones, they are all manufactured in China. One of the major reasons is labor is so much cheaper here. How do you convince a great American company to bring that manufacturing back here?It is politics. The answers don't need to be posted. The question is WHAT was important. I didn't like the question. It repeats this meme that corporations' purpose is to create jobs, and made buying Apple products look unpatriotic. No, jobs are a byproduct of corporations. Corporations chief purpose is to (hopefully) create profits to enrich American shareholders, most of whom are happy for some good economic news during these difficult times. I won't discuss the answers unless someone else opens that can of worms. I didn't like the question either. Horace's tweet is spot on: "Chinese manufacturing jobs for the iPhone can't "come back". They were never in the US and could have never been."
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 17, 2012 6:48:25 GMT -8
... I have owned shares in different companies for 25 years, at no time have I ever felt like I was part owner. That is a joke if there ever was one. I get disgusted when I see a company like AT&T pay out a big dividend every quarter while increasing their debt to incredibly high levels. A company goes public to raise capital for expansion.... I agree with the initial purpose of going public--to raise capital. Once a company is public, of what value is the stock to the company? I don't mean this as a rhetorical question. I can see a couple answers. 1. It can be used in M&A deals, so it acts like a currency. 2. It can be used as part of employee compensation, so again it acts like a currency. 3. It can be used to raise additional capital through secondary offerings. Anything else? In the case of Apple, they have so much cash, that I can't see any reason why Apple should care much about the share price. They can accomplish all purposes without relying on the value of the stock appreciating greatly. If anything, employee compensation is the one area we see some use of the stock by the company. A stable, low P/E, slowly rising AAPL share price seems to me to be an efficient use of stock for employee compensation.
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