Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 18:07:13 GMT -8
For reasons I can't explain, I really, really like that first 2-day trendline up there... As for the revised? Expanded? Whatever? 2-day trendline in your last chart, that would qualify as a "break" but if it _does_ bounce and not look back, it would be as consequential as the trendline violation from Nov 11-Feb 12. Which...might not actually be a sarcastic remark if it's possible to see the Nov 11-Feb 12 consolidation period as having cup and handle-like properties.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 18:13:10 GMT -8
Conjecture here, but one way I could see this playing out... If lowest line is #5 and highest line is #1... Tomorrow, we go down to #4, then bounce hard to #3... Then, if there's another leg (which right now, weekly MACD-h does imply), down to #5. Then up to #1 by Spring. That would be a quick resolution of the downwave much like May 2012. One more week of pain (maybe two at the most?), and then many, many weeks of net gain with weekly MACD-h sloping up. I could deal with that.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 18:13:17 GMT -8
Mav, those 2-day charts BOTH have your name on them! That's your original awesome trendline, with parallel lines for channels.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 18:14:29 GMT -8
I'd just like to think I helped a little bit. IF these trendlines end up having some kind of value. Otherwise...it's iPad's fault.
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Post by h2oskier on Oct 8, 2012 18:15:59 GMT -8
Everyone put the charts down, head outside away from city lights and look at the northern sky. The northern lights are dancing. Apparently they are being viewed down in London and Fergus Ontario. Plus there is a meteor shower going on!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 18:16:08 GMT -8
LOL!!!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 18:17:30 GMT -8
Everyone put the charts down, head outside away from city lights and look at the northern sky. The northern lights are dancing. Apparently they are being viewed down in London and Fergus Ontario. Plus there is a meteor shower going on! W!!! Too many city lights here!!! Enjoy for me!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 18:19:53 GMT -8
Pics or it Didn't Happenâ„¢ Gotta see the Northern Lights one of these years...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 18:22:08 GMT -8
Speaking of cups and handles... Hmm...how does Apr-Oct 12 look to you? A bit nonstandard, almost more like a soup bowl, but...?
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Post by h2oskier on Oct 8, 2012 18:25:36 GMT -8
Pics or it Didn't Happen™ Gotta see the Northern Lights one of these years... I'm not going back to get my tripod and camera. I'm sure iPad will vouch for my honesty... Plus you can look up this stuff on the Internet...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 18:30:33 GMT -8
No iPhone or camera-equipped iPad? Just kidding around with that POIDH meme.
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Post by h2oskier on Oct 8, 2012 18:40:25 GMT -8
Too dim for the iPhone to pick it up. Plus the display was not breath taking as it was in some areas... Photo from Fergus Ontario... /photo/1 No iPhone or camera-equipped iPad? Just kidding around with that POIDH meme.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 19:02:55 GMT -8
Still very nice, at least to someone who hasn't seen it in person. Thanks.
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Post by rickag on Oct 8, 2012 19:06:35 GMT -8
So from everyone's posts and looking at graphs it seems several indicators are pointing to about $620. If you connect a trend line from the low of May 18th and June 26th they extend out to almost exactly match the 100 day SMA at about $620. The Fibs from about $573 to $701 show a 38% retracement to about $622. The Bollinger Bands are widening on the 6 month chart and the bottom Bollinger is at $628 and rapidly approaching $620. The RSI is at 26 and approaching previous lows in the last 6 months at July 26th/27th at 23.7 and 15.6 / 16.1 on May 17th / May 18th both of which occurred before runs up from the $570s and $530s, respectively. The MADC and Fast Stochastics have not crossed over so maybe indicating further downside. That said, I wish I had taken some cash out at $705 and not been so confident AAPL would reach $710, I was sooooo sure. Now I am holding about 20% cash just in case AAPL goes down further and not expecting it to drop much further than the low $620s. Good Luck to all, I sure could use some.
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Post by prazan on Oct 8, 2012 19:09:25 GMT -8
Everyone put the charts down, head outside away from city lights and look at the northern sky. The northern lights are dancing. Apparently they are being viewed down in London and Fergus Ontario. Plus there is a meteor shower going on! I'm too far south for the northern lights, so Mav's awesome parallel trend lines will have to suffice.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 19:22:46 GMT -8
I just suggested a trendline. iPad is responsible for everything else.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 3:36:28 GMT -8
rickag: GOLD STAR!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 3:38:15 GMT -8
Re: cup and handle... Mark mentioned this last week. I really don't know enough about this pattern to comment. I have to do some homework...
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 4:34:03 GMT -8
Conjecture here, but one way I could see this playing out... If lowest line is #5 and highest line is #1... Tomorrow, we go down to #4, then bounce hard to #3... Then, if there's another leg (which right now, weekly MACD-h does imply), down to #5. Then up to #1 by Spring. AAPL 2-DAY CHART: So that's the reason for your giddiness on the other board? I think also that 631 gets us to the lower Bollinger Band, RSI is dragging along the "30" line (when there is usually an upward pop), and MACD could be coerced to turn upward. Thanks, Ms. IPad.
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Post by rickag on Oct 9, 2012 4:34:27 GMT -8
rickag: GOLD STAR!!! Thank you, always nice to have positive reinforcement. ;D
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Post by h2oskier on Oct 9, 2012 4:38:30 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 4:40:16 GMT -8
RG, I'm not giddy yet. The irrational exuberance comment I made was piggy-backing off a comment Prazan made about not giving in to irrational exbuberence during yesterday's 30-minute late afternoon bounce (which went on to be undone in subsequent 30 minutes). I was saying the time will come soon when we can give in...and celebrate a reversal, not just retrace...but it's not here yet.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 4:48:01 GMT -8
Sometime very soon, we will have a strong bounce and go up and retest the daily SMA-50, wherever it happens to be at the time. We need to watch to see if we stay over it -- that will give a clue as to whether it's retrace or reversal. If we lose it a second time, chances heightened for yet another leg down.
At the moment, weekly MACD-h implies a second round of down similar to April...but that is only a heads-up, as the technical landscape is ever-changing.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 5:03:02 GMT -8
RG, I'm not giddy yet. The irrational exuberance comment I made was piggy-backing off a comment Prazan made about not giving in to irrational exbuberence during yesterday's 30-minute late afternoon bounce (which went on to be undone in subsequent 30 minutes). I was saying the time will come soon when we can give in...and celebrate a reversal, not just retrace...but it's not here yet. Alright, potential giddiness. And let's hope everyone gets the memo about bouncing at the 100-day.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 5:08:01 GMT -8
Sometime very soon, we will have a strong bounce and go up and retest the daily SMA-50, wherever it happens to be at the time. We need to watch to see if we stay over it -- that will give a clue as to whether it's retrace or reversal. If we lose it a second time, chances heightened for yet another leg down. At the moment, weekly MACD-h implies a second round of down similar to April...but that is only a heads-up, as the technical landscape is ever-changing. "weekly MACD-h implies a second round of down similar to April": Are you referring to the down we had after the April 17 reversal, which got us to about 615-620 area? Also, I hate to ask "down to where", since we presumably will be hitting the 100-day here, and what other support is there beyond that, which doesn't have a "5" at the beginning?
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Post by Big Al on Oct 9, 2012 5:16:24 GMT -8
Sometime very soon, we will have a strong bounce and go up and retest the daily SMA-50, wherever it happens to be at the time. We need to watch to see if we stay over it -- that will give a clue as to whether it's retrace or reversal. If we lose it a second time, chances heightened for yet another leg down. At the moment, weekly MACD-h implies a second round of down similar to April...but that is only a heads-up, as the technical landscape is ever-changing. "weekly MACD-h implies a second round of down similar to April": Are you referring to the down we had after the April 17 reversal, which got us to about 615-620 area? Also, I hate to ask "down to where", since we presumably will be hitting the 100-day here, and what other support is there beyond that, which doesn't have a "5" at the beginning? I would say if the 100-day does not hold the next level is the 50% retracement level from the May 18th move (at 613). After that I have no idea and would probably start looking at the 200-day.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 5:42:24 GMT -8
Thanks, Al.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 5:42:40 GMT -8
Was that the Red Dog Reversal?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 6:01:52 GMT -8
Was that the Red Dog Reversal? He's saying it breached 636 so we may see 620 (Redler)
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 6:38:48 GMT -8
Was that the Red Dog Reversal? He's saying it breached 636 so we may see 620 (Redler) Thanks, Phoebes. I just didn't know how much of a breach is acceptable. With a pivot of 636.10, would a drop to 656.3 be considered OK? It's academic now, since we are at 628.
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