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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 26, 2012 15:26:36 GMT -8
While I liked the reversal off the LOD, I was not entirely thrilled with today's close. It's hard to separate the OE-effects. We'll see what happens Monday... You mean "EO", Miss IPad. But how bad are the technicals, and what do we need to put a bottom in? I know Scott Redler like to see price hold to show commitment - as you allude to above - so maybe that's the sign that we are on the way back. I read Helene Meisler on The New Real Money, who thinks similarly: "I will stick with my view on Apple that it had its target from the head-and-shoulders top met in this $600-610 area, so it makes sense that this is where it should make a stand, at least for now. For now it is in a channel and any move out of the channel will catch my attention. For bulls, that means a move over $640 that sticks." But we have to be close to a relief rally, a nice 25-30 point pop. Also, what's the deal with the weekly chart, and putting in a smaller column on MACD?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 26, 2012 16:30:45 GMT -8
Lstream, agree that the uncertainty has abated, and it certainly feels like bulls capitulated yesterday and today.
RG, concur with Scott and HM. Weekly chart still doesn't show any signs of weakening momentum. Three more days, and this downtrend will have the same duration as the Spring correction.
Rupert, thanks so much for that chart. Interesting visual of FA.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 27, 2012 20:14:15 GMT -8
Can't remember if someone(s) already said this:
At 591.00, we've retraced 61.8% of the move from 522-ish to 705.
In a perfect Fib world, that would be the end of that.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 28, 2012 6:08:12 GMT -8
Can't remember if someone(s) already said this: At 591.00, we've retraced 61.8% of the move from 522-ish to 705. In a perfect Fib world, that would be the end of that. And perhaps that was the reason for that number being so round: "591.00".
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 28, 2012 17:02:22 GMT -8
Well, there is that "ish" isn't there. You can trade this AAPL lull just fine I think - just do it carefully and buy some time. I'm bullish enough to go as short term as Mar 13 or so (though with breakeven under 609). The bottoming may not be fully over but it sure looks like it's coming to an end. May '12, I think - most of the pain has already been suffered. Obviously, it would help if macro "cooperates" enough.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 28, 2012 18:32:56 GMT -8
Obviously, it would help if macro "cooperates" enough. Well, we do have the Santa Claus rally coming up. Maybe the market EOs can follow the lead of the APPL EO crowd, and start this early.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 28, 2012 20:59:00 GMT -8
Hurricane Sandy is gonna complicate matters for a while. Technicals-wise, trading-wise, broader-market-wise, the works.
Stay safe, everyone on the East Coast.
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Post by Big Al on Oct 29, 2012 4:57:30 GMT -8
Can't remember if someone(s) already said this: At 591.00, we've retraced 61.8% of the move from 522-ish to 705. In a perfect Fib world, that would be the end of that. That would be nice, and I actually thought that this would occur in tandem with the 200day hitting the 61.8% retracement. Well, some days too early. I look at three price levels where we might head within the next days/weeks: 1. Valuation: Applying the cash ratio that Travis uses to our price we would have to go all the way down to $540 to hit the low of Nov. 2011 (at 4.2). I think this is very unlikely. Therefore, I rather apply the low PE from May (12.9) and get to $570 ($560 if you apply the low of last January, at 12.7). 2. Technicals: Technically $570 seems like a strong support. It was the lower bound of our range in June ($570-$590), and it was our support in July after earnings. 3. Psychology ("parabolic" decline): In May AAPL fell 17.7% from the ATH before recovering. Applying this to today would lead to $580. So my support levels are: $590ish = 200day and 61.8% Fib (should hold, but might not) , scale in some more $580ish = Just a weak support. Maybe scale in more, but might wait until next support. $570ish = Strong support, where I would go "almost" all-in
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 29, 2012 5:05:35 GMT -8
Hurricane Sandy is gonna complicate matters for a while. Technicals-wise, trading-wise, broader-market-wise, the works. Stay safe, everyone on the East Coast. Thanks, Mav. EOs can't get to their offices to do their deeds, even if markets were open. Not sure if they have the same capabilities from home.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 29, 2012 5:26:14 GMT -8
I look at three price levels where we might head within the next days/weeks: 1. Valuation: Applying the cash ratio that Travis uses to our price we would have to go all the way down to $540 to hit the low of Nov. 2011 (at 4.2). I think this is very unlikely. Therefore, I rather apply the low PE from May (12.9) and get to $570 ($560 if you apply the low of last January, at 12.7). I'm applying a P/C of 4.5, which we've closed under only 9 days since 1Q12 earnings. All of those were immediately after that earnings announcement. I'm also using a P/E of 13, which we've closed under just 8 days since 1Q12 earnings. P/C 4.5 = 575.44 P/E 13 = 574.08 SMA200 = 587.85 I think all three of these levels should provide a tremendous amount of support unless all hell breaks lose in the global economy.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 29, 2012 15:37:37 GMT -8
Does this look like a bear market? SPY MONTHLY CHART: It could be viewed as running into resistance and folk getting out in anticipation of a move down. As to it being a bear market, what exactly is the definition of a bear market, and how useful is it knowing whether it's a bear or bull market? One of the simple ways I view a chart as being bullish or bearish is whether the price is above or below the 200 EMA. Most of my intraday AAPL charts are bearish, while the daily and above ones are still bullish. So, by that logic your chart is bullish even if the intraday action feels anything but bullish. Birdie, yes, right now, I view the intraday action as counter-trend to the bigger picture -- ditto what you said. I think of a bear market starting with a price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month period, then subsequent counter-trend rallies (sucker's rallies) failing to reclaim more than half of that lost ground before the prevailing (downward) trend continues. With the severity of the Summer 2011 haircut, I did suspect we were in a bear market, and therefore I didn't trust the 2012 rally as being more than a sucker's rally...until it went on and on and on, reclaiming all lost ground and making new highs. Now, I don't think the central banks will "allow" a bear market; so I'm more inclined to view 5-20% declines as mere corrections in a bull market.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 29, 2012 16:18:42 GMT -8
AMZN Jan '14 puts. Set it and forget it. So far? I agree on bullish. Bigger picture, SPY/SPX look fine. Uptrends end sometime, and then come retracements. Next three levels: Around 1390ish, 1370ish, and 1350ish.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 30, 2012 15:24:30 GMT -8
Note to self: next time Elder shorts the fruit, pay attention.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 30, 2012 15:47:21 GMT -8
Note to self: next time Elder shorts the fruit, pay attention. Lovey, you have done an incredible job managing this implosion. The one thing I have taken from this is to not have so many different positions. The real pain came from the naked calls that were just sitting there. WOW were they ever decimated. Went most of the year at a 50% position and was doing well legging in, then I became complacent. I knew 683 was the line in the sand, said it, believed it, still did not act. To many support areas below, yes I am a reformed option holder. I will do better.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 30, 2012 17:03:16 GMT -8
I didn't know that hyperbiased Elder shorted anything.
Self-education at day's end has to see the individual investor or trader through. I am accountable for my own, uh, account. There's a "strange" sense of pride in making my own mistakes, and it drives me to improve my rate of success.
We'll all learn from this crap and come back stronger.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 30, 2012 17:29:09 GMT -8
Mav, right now I don't care about coming back stronger, I just want to come back to Sept 21st.
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Post by rob_london on Oct 31, 2012 5:48:25 GMT -8
AAPL briefly broke the 200 SMA.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 31, 2012 6:46:34 GMT -8
AAPL briefly broke the 200 SMA. I show the LOD as 587.70 and the 200 DMA as 586.99. What do you show as the 200 DMA. I know on stock charts they have dividend adjusted prices so maybe that would explain the difference.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 31, 2012 13:50:28 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Oct 31, 2012 14:55:08 GMT -8
At the risk of sounding like the big bad bear, I don't believe that the move down is over. We still have not had a "WTF!" capitulatory move down with several million shares changing hands in under 5 minutes. As soon as we get that then I will be happy to get fully long. For now, I'm just not convinced we've hit bottom.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 31, 2012 15:14:40 GMT -8
Hmm...
Getting very, very, very oversold.
OTOH, I think I've scaled in more than enough for now and that knife just keeps falling. Let's see if iPad mini can help the chart a bit in the next few weeks.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 31, 2012 15:46:50 GMT -8
Yep, that was barely a bounce off the daily SMA-200... If that wasn't the bottom and we're going to put in a lower low (on positive divergence), I'd like to see 585 so I can stop thinking about it. Let's see what the new month brings with institutions getting a fresh influx of cash over the next few days. Somehow, I think after such a prolonged downwave, the bottom won't come quietly and escape notice.
I bought my last dip today. Now, I need to see a breakout before I add any more.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 31, 2012 19:00:40 GMT -8
I use different overbought/sold indicators than you do iPad (not like I know the difference anyway ) but is AAPL at that blue circle or the red circle on that RSI or stochastics thingy?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 31, 2012 19:17:15 GMT -8
I use different overbought/sold indicators than you do iPad (not like I know the difference anyway ) but is AAPL at that blue circle or the red circle on that RSI or stochastics thingy? Mav, red. On the weekly Fast STO.
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Post by Mav on Oct 31, 2012 19:19:37 GMT -8
That's a "resolution is on the way" kind of maybe-sign, right? Versus the less oversold blue circle?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 31, 2012 19:31:20 GMT -8
Yes. It's close. We (still) just don't know how close. Keep taking it level by level.
Last red circle before this....361. Before that, 309. (crap, those are div adjusted numbers -- dividend is messing with my TA! -- the 11/11 bottom and the 6/11 bottom)
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 31, 2012 20:20:13 GMT -8
I have noticed the different prices. The 570 is not really 570. Kind of messes with me. Lovey, today's red candle starts a sixth week of red candles. Surely we will have a week soon where we actually go up some.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 1, 2012 10:11:30 GMT -8
Weak, weak, weak.
But at least a kind of point of reference for now. $595.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 2, 2012 4:30:29 GMT -8
Ms. IPad,
What is your WAG for the next few days?
TIA.
RG
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 2, 2012 9:29:37 GMT -8
I have a WAG: this crap ends in a week. AAPL will get its resolution.
iPad mini is poised to catch on throughout the world.
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