Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 3:50:24 GMT -8
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platon
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"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
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Post by platon on Feb 5, 2015 4:09:25 GMT -8
I believe you do not get the dividend if you buy today. This is always confusing but I think you had to buy yesterday to get the dividend. Correct me if I am wrong because I have been before on this subject. From the SEC. " The ex-dividend date is usually set for stocks two business days before the record date. If you purchase a stock on its ex-dividend date or after, you will not receive the next dividend payment. Instead, the seller gets the dividend. If you purchase before the ex-dividend date, you get the dividend."
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Post by rob_london on Feb 5, 2015 4:15:15 GMT -8
Interesting graph, courtesy of Ben Evans, which shows that Apple's share of Baidu usage was 30% last month. Yesterday was the ex-dividend date.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 4:24:04 GMT -8
Last night there was a great discussion on the thread about Apple's next pull back.
Some of the discussion centered around whether the release of Watch may provide a catalyst -- as yet another opportunity for BI et al to judge out of context much like was done when the iPhone was initially released. [Feel free to elaborate if my summarization doesn't do justice.]
The Watch is different than the iPhone. While there are smart watches out there, there is not really a smart watch market. What smart watches are sold are a niche product at best. Contrast that with the pre-iPhone cell phone market (smart or otherwise). It was a huge thriving industry with many players who thought they were 1. technologically advanced and 2. knew 'their' market better than anyone else. The talking heads called these titans in and they laughed and said it wasn't a smartphone because it didn't have a keyboard (Steve Balmer). They said no computer guys is going to just waltz in here (Palm CEO Ed Colligan).
Watches are different. It is not a thriving market. It is a market that is passe for many of us, a hobby for some (collecting) and conspicuous consumption. Apple is entering a moribund industry from last century and turning it on its head. They know what's coming. They've seen what happened in the smartphone market. I don't think we'll see anyone on CNBC laughing. Indeed, we've already seen 180's with people touting their coming smart watches.
No doubt, BI et al will find a way to rain on the Watch parade. That's what they do. Apple knows this. They have already taken steps to mute the criticism by pre-establishing its credentials. How? Well, there is this morning's Reuters report of Watch being tested/piloted in half of the 'leading' hospitals. Then there was the Watch introduction in the center of the fashion industry, who have already seemingly blessed it as 'fashionable'. Then they hired Angela. What a move. Apple Stores, already outselling Tiffany, are about to move upscale. It is fascinating to 'watch' it progress.
Of course, a future pull back is inevitable. Stocks don't move in straight lines. There may even be a hiccup around Watch, after all sell the news. But I am not anticipating a 40-50% pull back on Watch. Why? Because it's release coincides with Q2 Earnings which will again set records. This gives Apple time to tweak and ramp.
Tim Cook planned well.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 4:25:51 GMT -8
I believe you do not get the dividend if you buy today. This is always confusing but I think you had to buy yesterday to get the dividend. Correct me if I am wrong because I have been before on this subject. From the SEC. " The ex-dividend date is usually set for stocks two business days before the record date. If you purchase a stock on its ex-dividend date or after, you will not receive the next dividend payment. Instead, the seller gets the dividend. If you purchase before the ex-dividend date, you get the dividend." You are correct. I messed this up two days in a row. Original post edited to avoid confusion. Thanks.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 5, 2015 4:57:42 GMT -8
To be clear: YOU BUY STOCK TODAY AND YOU DO NOT RECEIVE THE DIVIDEND. That's why today is called "EX-DIV DAY" -- no more confusion.
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Post by chasmac on Feb 5, 2015 5:21:24 GMT -8
Since people like to make predictions around here... Apple will sell every watch they make. They will be difficult to buy. They will be aspirational like the iPhone was when it came out (before Samsung copied and it was hard tell what phone people had). Black market purchases will thrive. It will roll out to 1000s more points of sale far quicker than the iPhone could. No carrier issues. Foot traffic into stores will increase, people are going to want to come in and play with them. That really hasn't been the case for most products in the last few years. The watch solves a major problem for women - digging a phone out of their purse (call, text, shop). Men will be happy.
Yes, we'll get the negative reports. "Botched" rollout because they didn't manufacture enough of them. Apple does that on purpose I believe. It limits risk on the possibility of design flaws and creates demand - people love products that they can't get. And of course we'll get the typical tech spec ninnies but that will be just noise. I can't wait to use one for golf. Distances, scoring, tracking my walking and notifications on my wrist, perfect. No more taking the damn phone out of my pocket. That's only ONE user case.
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Post by chasmac on Feb 5, 2015 5:21:58 GMT -8
To be clear: YOU BUY STOCK TODAY AND YOU DO NOT RECEIVE THE DIVIDEND. That's why today is called "EX-DIV DAY" -- no more confusion. Thanks Mom!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 5, 2015 6:24:23 GMT -8
Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha reiterated an Outperform rating and boosted his price target on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to $140.00 (from $130.00) citing a larger base and a longer cycle.
“Following a detailed analysis based on recent commentary from Apple’s management, we conclude that Apple likely has over 400mn iPhone users,” Garcha said. “Based on this analysis and taking into account a superior ecosystem, compute advantage, and quickening replacement rate, we conclude that our already above consensus EPS projections of $9.25/$10.04 for CY15/CY16 may be conservative.”
The analyst notes the installed base of 400 million suggests iPhone units could head to 240 million. “By factoring in iPhone 6/6 Plus sell through and low teens penetration of the installed iPhone user base, we conclude that the installed base of iPhone users at the end of 2014 was at least 400mn. Given high retention rates and a quickening replacement cycle (only for 2015), this suggests iPhone volumes could grow from 193mn in 2014 to 234mn/240mn in 2015/2016, some 9%/13% above our estimates. Additionally, we believe this could show a prolonged product cycle driving multiple years of iPhone growth, whi ch in turn could drive EPS of $11.50 (23% above street estimates).”
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2015 6:43:51 GMT -8
Ameritrade shows AAPL up 50 cents and here (& CNBC) up a buck.
It's the Dividend. Weird. Same PPS.
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Post by macwire on Feb 5, 2015 6:48:01 GMT -8
Ameritrade shows AAPL up 50 cents and here (& CNBC) up a buck. It's the Dividend. Weird. Same PPS. TD is wrong. It hasn't adjusted for ex div. It's up a buck
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 5, 2015 7:02:01 GMT -8
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Post by chasmac on Feb 5, 2015 7:11:27 GMT -8
We pay all bills electronically, banking, trading, retirement, and health data -same. So what do you do, hide in a cave?
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Post by chasmac on Feb 5, 2015 7:17:55 GMT -8
Mercel, you should give the former Mrs. Jobs a call. She made $1,000,000,000 on DIS the last two days
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Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 5, 2015 7:24:22 GMT -8
I just came across something kinda scary about Samsung Smart TVs on Reddit. It turns out that Samsung Smart TVs listen in on your conversations and may record and share that information. Not related to AAPL at the moment, but any secure push Apple has on the TV front would be good.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 5, 2015 7:38:59 GMT -8
We pay all bills electronically, banking, trading, retirement, and health data -same. So what do you do, hide in a cave? Send me your account info and pins and I'll do a personal evaluation of your security risk....
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 8:34:45 GMT -8
We pay all bills electronically, banking, trading, retirement, and health data -same. So what do you do, hide in a cave? Send me your account info and pins and I'll do a personal evaluation of your security risk.... You want the security codes to the Earth's defense perimeter?
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 8:43:57 GMT -8
From TheStreet Google Faces 'Significant' Blow if Apple Uses Different Search Engine. Love this quote: "The Safari platform is basically one of the premiere search engines in the world, if not the premiere search engine in the world. We are definitely in the search distribution business ... and anyone who is in that business needs to be interested in the Safari deal," Mayer said during Yahoo!'s December quarter earnings conference call with investors. "The Safari users are among the most engaged and lucrative users in the world and it's something that we would really like to be able to provide."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2015 8:46:25 GMT -8
Mercel, you should give the former Mrs. Jobs a call. She made $1,000,000,000 on DIS the last two days Is she looking for a 10 bragger on this? Next time she sails north, I'll turn on my beacon light...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2015 8:49:06 GMT -8
From TheStreet Google Faces 'Significant' Blow if Apple Uses Different Search Engine. Love this quote: "The Safari platform is basically one of the premiere search engines in the world, if not the premiere search engine in the world. We are definitely in the search distribution business ... and anyone who is in that business needs to be interested in the Safari deal," Mayer said during Yahoo!'s December quarter earnings conference call with investors. "The Safari users are among the most engaged and lucrative users in the world and it's something that we would really like to be able to provide." There was a story yesterday connecting the dots from Apple's HR hires over the past two years. A search engine may in fact be in Apple's crosshairs. That would be delicious.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 5, 2015 9:25:06 GMT -8
I need a bigger brain - are you fellas suggesting that they drop GOOG (which I agree with) and just stick with Safari? Or are you saying they add YHOO? I'm confused.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 5, 2015 9:40:42 GMT -8
Phoebe - right now when you search in Safari (on your iPhone, for example) the results you get are delivered by Google. Google decides what to show you and also puts in ads. Advertisers pay google and Google pays Apple for letting them be the default search engine. Google makes a ton of money from this.
Now Google's contract with Apple has expired, and they are renegotiating.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2015 9:53:47 GMT -8
Don't forget Duck Duck Go Phoebe. It is my default. I only use the others if I can't find what I'm looking for in DDG and I only use Google if I'm searching for a specific item to buy.
Shopping searches have gotten much worse lately. Paid prioritization has ruined shopping searches on all of them. If I only wanted Amazon results, I'd go to Amazon. Are you listening Marissa?
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Post by tuffett on Feb 5, 2015 10:21:44 GMT -8
On the topic of search engines - when do Google's search patents expire, and what is stopping competitors from simply copying all their algorithms once they do? Or are they proprietary?
As much as I hate Google, their search engine is the best. I've tried DuckDuckGo, Bing, Yahoo and many others and nothing compares. I'm wondering if this can change.
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Post by jeff99 on Feb 5, 2015 10:36:08 GMT -8
Sorry, but semi-absolutely not (unless they only make a dozen watches). 1) There is no "killer" app / use case for the watch currently (that isn't already available in a less expensive wearable or on the phone on a bigger screen). This may change over time, no pun intended (Apple Pay, etc). But initially people will not be buying. 2) More importantly - and I haven't seen anyone else say this - initially, at least, the watch will be the first Apple product in recent memory that will not be seen as cool. The opposite, in fact. It's going to be like: "You own an iPhone and Macbook Air and iPad and and iMac and Apple TV? That's cool. Wait, you own the Apple Watch, too? You're a ridiculous fanboy (even if the person has never heard the word "fanboy") who has more money than you know what to do with." It's not going to be cool to wear an Apple Watch (initially, at least), it's going to be lame and embarrassing, like no matter what Apple puts their logo on, you'll blindly buy it. A few notes before the shells start flying: 1) I'm currently heavily invested in Apple and have been, mainly, since 2007. 2) I own all of the products above and am very pro-Apple. 3) Im not anti-wearables at all; in fact, I've owned just about every Fitbit model. But the Apple Watch? That dog ain't hunting, at least with respect to the initial rollout, barring something unforeseen. I should also note that when I posted previously about the need for a bigger screen iPhone to bring back aapl, I wasn't just throwing darts, I was 1000% certain I was correct about that - it was that obvious to me and I didn't even see how it was arguable or how others couldn't see it. This isn't that level of certainty and my mind can be changed (or I could be wrong). But, as of today, I'm 90% certain the initial rollout is going to be disastrous unless expectations are somehow really minimized like the Apple TV "hobby", which is doubtful. Since people like to make predictions around here... Apple will sell every watch they make. They will be difficult to buy. They will be aspirational like the iPhone was when it came out (before Samsung copied and it was hard tell what phone people had). Black market purchases will thrive. It will roll out to 1000s more points of sale far quicker than the iPhone could. No carrier issues. Foot traffic into stores will increase, people are going to want to come in and play with them. That really hasn't been the case for most products in the last few years. The watch solves a major problem for women - digging a phone out of their purse (call, text, shop). Men will be happy.
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Feb 5, 2015 10:42:53 GMT -8
"I was 1000 percent certain that I was correct about that - it was that obvious to me and I didn't even see how it was arguable or how others couldn't see it"
You are channeling my wife
After years of being wrong, like a blind pig finding an acorn, I was finally right about something. I was so astounded to hear her admit it that I said, "I want you to write on a piece of paper...On March 15, 2007, You were right and I was wrong". I may have had visions of having it framed. She looked at me and smiled sweetly and said, "Honey, It is 2008"
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Post by jeff99 on Feb 5, 2015 11:06:34 GMT -8
You are channeling my wife If I had a dollar for every time I've been falsely accused of that ... I should have also added that, to my eyes, the watch is far too boxy-looking. I understand famous watchmakers have oohed and aahed about the design, but I don't think consumers will share their delight. It looks very un-Apple-esque to me.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 5, 2015 11:11:33 GMT -8
Jeff, I think you're wrong about Apple Watch. Amongst my friends a handful intend to purchase and the majority of the others are at least intrigued. Only a couple think it's silly. These are not Apple zealots either - just regular people most of whom own iPhones.
Apple has earned the respect of the general public. They are given the benefit of the doubt, is what I'm seeing. Not in the media, of course, but that's a different story.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 5, 2015 11:11:52 GMT -8
I've watched Apple's Watch video many times. There's a good business case for it, offering both convenience, functionality (i.e. sensors), and in time, some individualized style. The initial reception will be very interesting, to say the least.
Recall that few were using tablets (except crappy Kindles) at the time iPad launched. The initial reaction by the media was mixed (negative by the usual trolls) but the lines were there for it at the stores.
No one is going to be peppered with questions on how many Apple products one owns if an Apple watch is on one's wrist -- that's a silly thing to be concerned about or fear.
I DO think the Watch is a higher risk product, however, for Apple. The reactions by those who've seen and handled it are quite positive. Tim Cook says he can't live without it, which shouldn't be too surprising. Polls taken suggest a lukewarm reception, which is a concern.
Let's wait for the real event (unless you're in short term options) to learn more about its functionality. I think it will be a success, with interest ramping perhaps slower than the iPhone and iPad. Remember too that the iPod did not set the world on fire at its launch in November 2001.
Finally, if one likes a Fitbit or Fuelband, the Apple Watch is in a different league and should easily subsume that market.
And don't read anything David Goldman of CNN writes -- he's a moron.
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Post by rickag on Feb 5, 2015 11:11:56 GMT -8
Sorry, but absolutely not (unless they only make a dozen watches). 1) There is no "killer" app / use case for the watch currently (that isn't already available in a less expensive wearable or on the phone on a bigger screen). This may change over time, no pun intended (Apple Pay, etc). But initially people will not be buying. 2) More importantly - and I haven't seen anyone else say this - initially, at least, the watch will be the first Apple product in recent memory that will not be seen as cool. The opposite, in fact. It's going to be like: "You own an iPhone and Macbook Air and iPad and and iMac and Apple TV? That's cool. Wait, you own the Apple Watch, too? You're a ridiculous fanboy (even if the person has never heard the word "fanboy") who has more money than you know what to do with." It's not going to be cool to wear an Apple Watch (initially, at least), it's going to be lame and embarrassing. A few notes before the shells start flying: 1) I'm currently heavily invested in Apple and have been, mainly, since 2007. 2) I own all of the products above and am very pro-Apple. 3) Im not anti-wearables at all; in fact, I've owned just about every Fitbit model. But the Apple Watch? That dog ain't hunting, at least with respect to the initial rollout, barring something unforeseen. I should also note that when I posted previously about the need for a bigger screen iPhone to bring back aapl, I wasn't just throwing darts, I was 1000% certain I was correct about that - it was that obvious to me and I didn't even see how it was arguable or how others couldn't see it. This isn't that level of certainty and my mind can be changed. But, as of today, I'm 90% certain the initial rollout is going to be disastrous unless expectations are somehow really minimized like the Apple TV "hobby", which is doubtful. You could be right. Some expectations for the Apple Watch are very high indeed. My expectations are modest and aren't that high, yet. The target market only includes iPhone owners, a mere 400 - 500 million people. We do not currently know the capabilities of the watch. There may be features which might surprise, only a few people have this knowledge. So I will withhold judgement and not make a blanket statement such as Actually, on further consideration, when was any new product Apple introduced considered cool. The iPod, iPhone and iPads were all panned on the internet. The FUD was absolutely deafening, still is. As far as your being correct on a larger iPhone, congratulations. But, as far as launch timing I believe it worked wonderfully. The 4" iPhones still grew sales, but also challenged Apple's supply chain to the maximum. The introduction of the larger iPhones dramatically increased sales, allowed Apple time to get it right and increased the addressable market. I look at it as "so what", it took a litter longer to get to $840 split adjusted.
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