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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 10:10:11 GMT -8
OK. So the last chart I posted turned out to be garbage, as I suspected. This one looks a bit more convincing. The close below the 50 DMA on Friday really messed things up, but this one seems to fit far better. Is that your target - 614? I don't like it.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 11, 2012 10:17:59 GMT -8
OK. So the last chart I posted turned out to be garbage, as I suspected. This one looks a bit more convincing. The close below the 50 DMA on Friday really messed things up, but this one seems to fit far better. Is that your target - 614? I don't like it. No, not a target. The arrow was supposed to indicate a trend line that fit the action a bit better than my previous chart. If that line is correct, then we got a retest of the back side of it and are in good shape to start climbing once more.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 11, 2012 10:27:05 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 10:29:24 GMT -8
Thanks for clarifying big bird. I am pretty disgusted with what has transpired with the S&P today. Up 10 points then went red. Seems to be clawing back some. I really do not want to see the overall market collapse under us at these levels.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 10:34:05 GMT -8
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Post by lance on Oct 11, 2012 10:36:05 GMT -8
AAPL based on the last 6 months of trading has traded worse than the NASDAQ. That is crazy haha. I mean during the last 6 months the have dramatically increased EPS and revenues, successfully released New iPad, iPhone 5, new macbook retina, and soon will be releasing iPad Mini and new iPods. I think it is safe to say aapl is due for a big run. AAPL over the last 6 months is up only 0.95% (ie flat) haha.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 11, 2012 10:36:51 GMT -8
Thanks for clarifying big bird. I am pretty disgusted with what has transpired with the S&P today. Up 10 points then went red. Seems to be clawing back some. I really do not want to see the overall market collapse under us at these levels. I often find that the fastest moves of any size are retests and they seemingly come out of nowhere and retrace the majority of a move. In wave speak these retraces tend to be waves 2 and 5, with 2 retracing 1, and 5 retracing 4. If, as I suspect, that was a wave 2, what comes next is a 3 and they are usually the longest wave of all. Of course, I'm only guessing right now, but that's what I am thinking at present.
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Post by lance on Oct 11, 2012 10:37:53 GMT -8
Also they also had there first dividend in over a decade haha
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 11, 2012 10:39:39 GMT -8
That is what I meant Lstream. Apple needs to provide some good numbers at earnings or the carnage will continue. I do not expect Apple to answer all the hit-whore pieces by SA and the like. Zaky put the qualifier in his posting to CYA if the bottom was not in, I don't think anyone feels comfortable (near term) about where we are going. Ya - we are on the same page. Then we must me approaching a bottom, since even the most "street-wise" and savvy folks on this board are very nervous. We all know the tricks of the EO, but even with that, we are still not sure. They have succeeded. Time to go up.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 11, 2012 10:46:23 GMT -8
Thanks for clarifying big bird. I am pretty disgusted with what has transpired with the S&P today. Up 10 points then went red. Seems to be clawing back some. I really do not want to see the overall market collapse under us at these levels. I often find that the fastest moves of any size are retests and they seemingly come out of nowhere and retrace the majority of a move. In wave speak these retraces tend to be waves 2 and 5, with 2 retracing 1, and 5 retracing 4. If, as I suspect, that was a wave 2, what comes next is a 3 and they are usually the longest wave of all. Of course, I'm only guessing right now, but that's what I am thinking at present. Wheeles, just to follow: wave 1 was the bounce off 625 on Tuesday; wave 2 was what happened today (down to 630), a retrace of the run from 625 to 647; and, wave 3 is yet to come, but is up? Is this correct? Thx.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 11, 2012 10:51:08 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Oct 11, 2012 10:54:31 GMT -8
Wheeles, just to follow: wave 1 was the bounce off 625 on Tuesday; wave 2 was what happened today (down to 630), a retrace of the run from 625 to 647; and, wave 3 is yet to come, but is up? Is this correct? Thx. Yes, it would be up. That's assuming that I am reading this right. No idea about targets as I swore off Fibonacci a while back. Of course, I am sure some Elliott Wave guru would find some wave structure to say that we are going down, but I still maintain that the weekly middle Bollinger was the low of this move down, and a good run higher is ahead.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 10:55:34 GMT -8
Thanks for clarifying big bird. I am pretty disgusted with what has transpired with the S&P today. Up 10 points then went red. Seems to be clawing back some. I really do not want to see the overall market collapse under us at these levels. I often find that the fastest moves of any size are retests and they seemingly come out of nowhere and retrace the majority of a move. In wave speak these retraces tend to be waves 2 and 5, with 2 retracing 1, and 5 retracing 4. If, as I suspect, that was a wave 2, what comes next is a 3 and they are usually the longest wave of all. Of course, I'm only guessing right now, but that's what I am thinking at present. Not an EW guy, but have always read the old topic. That darn bottom, always hard to find. Lovey, keep it clean.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 10:57:10 GMT -8
Was not trying to hurt.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 11, 2012 10:59:54 GMT -8
Not an EW guy, but have always read the old topic. That darn bottom, always hard to find. Lovey, keep it clean. I took an interest a few years back, but it soon became apparent that it could be twisted to predict or explain pretty much everything. Now I just think in terms of moves consisting of either 5 waves or 3 waves, and pretty much leave it at that.
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Post by mjuarez on Oct 11, 2012 11:11:07 GMT -8
Well, I'm glad I'm out of OCT12s... damn... 629?!?
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 11, 2012 11:20:00 GMT -8
On yesterday's P/E discussion with the great point of recalculating them with the restated earnings, the problem with that is that it only affects one of the 2 numbers in the ratio. I remember on TMF and theAAPLinvestor of many of us being disappointed with the stock price staying so low at the time, because while they were making money a lot of it was being banked and not counted as earnings yet. Most investors likely didn't even know of these stealth earnings, though it was finally getting reported a little more right before they switched their accounting standards. So if the stock price was depressed because the stated earnings were depressed from the actual earnings, IMO you really can't just go back and use the restated earnings to figure out a different P/E. I mean you can, but IMO it's not accurate. There's not really a good way to go about doing it, but the best case would be to use a factor to make a virtual P/E somewhere between the 2 numbers. And if you really want to get fancy, maybe you vary that variable based on how much you think the market used those stealth earnings in coming up with the current pricing, thus maybe you start off with a P/E of actual + 40% of the delta, but just before the change when more people are taking it into account, maybe you use actual + 70% of the delta. I understand your point, but I think it's too hard to know how many investors understood the earnings or how that would have affected price. I know the members of AFB understood the earnings very well, and it sounds like the forums you were part of understood them too. But it seemed like the professional analysts didn't get it. So the picture is mixed on how well earnings were understood. But I think the smart money got it. Nevertheless, I prefer to keep the comparison simple. It makes apples-to-apples P/E comparisons easier. Plus, I think the imploding economy was the dominant factor, not the accounting. Share price would have been arguably as low given the market. Sure, price might have been higher if there never was deferred accounting for iPhone earnings, but by how much? Remember that the other major factor affecting price back then was the overall market had tanked, with AAPL dropping over 60%. The imploding economy and market were the high order bit, IMO.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 11, 2012 11:35:31 GMT -8
Travis just tweeted: "$AAPL will have ~$145 cash per share reported in January (actually have in Dec'12) So Feb-Apr stock price will be $652-$870 (4.5x-5.75x$)"
followed by: "This is why P/E will creep up. ttm earnings can stay put, yet cash will not. It will keep rising. $AAPL"
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Oct 11, 2012 11:39:31 GMT -8
At this rate, only 63 more days before AAPL is down to $0/share
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Post by terps530 on Oct 11, 2012 11:46:05 GMT -8
At this rate, only 63 more days before AAPL is down to $0/share The sun is slowly going down outside. At this rate, it will be gone forever after a few more hours...
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 11, 2012 11:46:09 GMT -8
At this rate, only 63 more days before AAPL is down to $0/share down 1-3 percent a day. Wtf is going on here.
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Post by doublerainbow on Oct 11, 2012 11:46:54 GMT -8
At this rate, only 63 more days before AAPL is down to $0/share Can't wait until this is over and we're on our way up... Been through a few of these cycles to be super nervous anymore. It's annoying but it's only temporary. Stay strong!
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Post by david on Oct 11, 2012 11:47:04 GMT -8
Look at AAPL price movements in Oct 11, Nov 11, and April 12. They all look similar to AAPL in Sept 2012. What they have in common is the fact that each hit ATH's or local highs and then declined. In each case AAPL bounced off the lower Bollinger Band at least twice before beginning a new uptrend. Unless news changes everything, I expect AAPL to hit the lower Bollinger one more time and with the RSI down to around 30 (or worse) at that time. Just MHO.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 11, 2012 11:47:07 GMT -8
At this rate, only 63 more days before AAPL is down to $0/share Is that calendar days or trading days? Just need to figure out how much time I have to save up enough to buy the whole company. Wait... I think I have it right here in my pocket!
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 11, 2012 11:50:08 GMT -8
At this rate, only 63 more days before AAPL is down to $0/share Is that calendar days or trading days? Just need to figure out how much time I have to save up enough to buy the whole company. Wait... I think I have it right here in my pocket! Apple is selling off as if they just announced they wouldnt be selling phones anymore. WTF
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 11, 2012 11:52:20 GMT -8
I understand your point, but I think it's too hard to know how many investors understood the earnings or how that would have affected price. Yep, so it's hard to know how many took into consideration all of the money pouring in, and thus would have raised the price anywhere close to equivalent to make up for the extra stealth earnings. I mean, most investors, both individual and much bigger, just don't have the time to dig into every earnings report to look for special things that aren't being factored, positive or negative. Most just pull open their stock view, whether in yahoo finance or on a bloomberg, and go with the numbers they give. No matter. It's in the past now, though I remember on [esrever] we were trying to get a handle on it, or rather trying to get one step ahead of when the money would actually show, either when the large 1/8ths were going to show up additively in earnings, or when an accounting change was going to be made to help wake everyone up to the fact that money was just pouring in that many to most didn't know about. We made some good money back then, percentage wise. But took a few too many big risks, too.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 11, 2012 11:53:33 GMT -8
If earnings arnt up to expetations I think apple stock will be a world of hurt.
I did a calculation.. I will actually lose money for the year at 585.00
I dont know about anyone else but everyday its getting harder and harder to be an apple bull. Im not sure we see 700 again this year and Im very upset that I even have to say that but I need to start facing reality.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 11, 2012 11:56:26 GMT -8
Bought another chunk of '14's, this time 670-750 bull call spreads for 27.2, though you might be able to get them for 27 right this instant after another 2 point drop.
Seems like a good choice, 194% maximum return, plus the safety of a breakeven point below 700. Annualized, that's around 135%
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Post by mjuarez on Oct 11, 2012 11:56:42 GMT -8
If earnings arnt up to expetations I think apple stock will be a world of hurt. I did a calculation.. I will actually lose money for the year at 585.00 If you think it's going to go under 585, and you don't want to lose money, the only sensible thing would be to sell right now. That would still net you ~$50 gains per share, right?
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 11, 2012 11:57:33 GMT -8
The price action sucks, but what can you do.
Hang in there everybody.
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