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Post by rob_london on Oct 11, 2012 12:01:57 GMT -8
Lowest closing price for a couple of months.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 11, 2012 12:04:15 GMT -8
If apple reports in line would the p/e go up and by how much?
If apple misses their guidence the stock will suffer big time in my opinion. We are now at a p/e of 14.8. I think 12 is the lowest they can take it, but of course that would be terrible.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Oct 11, 2012 12:07:21 GMT -8
Post-lunch "deep" thought after reading iPad's comment: Apple stock is like a tremendous accordion with the big boys playing the instrument. When they pull on the handles and prime the pump, money gets sucked in at a furious rate and fills it up fast (stock hits 705). Then the EOs squeeze that baby hard (sell!), and all that money goes shooting out into their pockets. The little guys get "played" in A minor.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 11, 2012 12:09:49 GMT -8
From a pure psychology point of view, our current situation feels like June 2011 when we were all incredulous that the stock had dropped to 315 or so. It was a good thing that many posters could not access a handy razor blade back then. We all know what happened shortly afterwards.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Oct 11, 2012 12:10:16 GMT -8
Q4 results are less important than guidance this quarter. Also iPad numbers will be closely watched. Unless Apple splits out iPhone 5 sales, that could have a dramatic impact one way pr another.
Barring an iPhone 5 unit declaration, it's mostly all about the Q1 guidance.
One wildcard to watch for - Apple has a growing cash "problem". We could possibly hear news on extended buyback or dividend increase.
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Post by podboy on Oct 11, 2012 12:11:54 GMT -8
If apple reports in line would the p/e go up and by how much? If apple misses their guidence the stock will suffer big time in my opinion. We are now at a p/e of 14.8. I think 12 is the lowest they can take it, but of course that would be terrible. Am I the only one that would love some PE compression after a great earnings? If we hit a PE of around 12 I'd sell all my common and place ITM leaps and BCS's. a low PE ratio is a great time to buy, don't be afraid of it Nate.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 11, 2012 12:15:25 GMT -8
647.20 - 627.80 What a f*&^ing intra-day swing....it really is exhausting.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 11, 2012 12:15:59 GMT -8
If apple reports in line would the p/e go up and by how much? If apple misses their guidence the stock will suffer big time in my opinion. We are now at a p/e of 14.8. I think 12 is the lowest they can take it, but of course that would be terrible. Am I the only one that would love some PE compression after a great earnings? If we hit a PE of around 12 I'd sell all my common and place ITM leaps and BCS's. a low PE ratio is a great time to buy, don't be afraid of it Nate. Im fully loaded at the moment so yes I am very afraid of a p/e of 12 at the moment. I will not sell here and take a loss like this. I will wait months if I have to, to get back to my break even price of 690.00. I hardly believe that within less then a month apple is worth 50 billion dollars less. They didnt suddendly stop selling products this month. If I can get back to break even I dont think I will ever use margin again. This has been a disaster. But in prospective Im still up around 50 dollars a share for year but its still not fun to ride a drop down like this. Good luck everyone
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Post by bernard on Oct 11, 2012 12:17:25 GMT -8
If apple reports in line would the p/e go up and by how much? If apple misses their guidence the stock will suffer big time in my opinion. We are now at a p/e of 14.8. I think 12 is the lowest they can take it, but of course that would be terrible. From your posts you clearly should not own Apple stock - much less options of which I think you have none. There are some nice 3% 10 year returns in Treasuries - of course the country might default by then - and some nice government insured CDs paying 2 to 3% for longer maturities.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 11, 2012 12:18:44 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 12:21:06 GMT -8
Am I the only one that would love some PE compression after a great earnings? If we hit a PE of around 12 I'd sell all my common and place ITM leaps and BCS's. a low PE ratio is a great time to buy, don't be afraid of it Nate. This will get you on many bad sides.
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Post by podboy on Oct 11, 2012 12:23:29 GMT -8
What do you mean? Isn't a low PE A good time to buy?
Are you saying many people would be mad at me? I'm the devil remember?
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 11, 2012 12:23:47 GMT -8
Don't like the action but it's times like these when we have a chance to make big bucks.
Doubled down on my Nov 680s @ $9.10 and Jan 13 750s @ $7.10. Also added to my Oct 650 position which should (hopefully) make some money next week.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 11, 2012 12:30:33 GMT -8
If I can get back to break even I dont think I will ever use margin again. This has been a disaster. But in prospective Im still up around 50 dollars a share for year but its still not fun to ride a drop down like this. Scared straight! Good for you Margin can be a beast, and I've had to sell out near the bottom a couple times too many. But now, instead of getting close to my limit, I only go at most around 20% onto margin. It's still a lot, but a little safer. In the future (after '13's expire) I plan to stay from 10% cash to 10% on margin. They're giving me margin for less than AAPL's dividend, so it's hard to not use it especially when I have other assets to cover part of it. Be careful with margin! And be very very careful if you ever combine margin with options. Multiple levels of leverage can bite very quickly.
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Post by Grover on Oct 11, 2012 12:31:43 GMT -8
Q4 results are less important than guidance this quarter. Also iPad numbers will be closely watched. Unless Apple splits out iPhone 5 sales, that could have a dramatic impact one way pr another. Barring an iPhone 5 unit declaration, it's mostly all about the Q1 guidance. One wildcard to watch for - Apple has a growing cash "problem". We could possibly hear news on extended buyback or dividend increase. My thought exactly about the Q 1 guidance. TC will have to address the concern about the component supply bottleneck for the IPhone 5 and whether they can bring supply and demand into harmony. These factors will be huge. Same concerns existed relative to IPad 3 and they executed. Hang in! Nothing wrong with the fundamentals at this point.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 12:49:48 GMT -8
What do you mean? Isn't a low PE A good time to buy? Are you saying many people would be mad at me? I'm the devil remember? What you said is you would love some P/E compression, this is not what most here want to hear. You are asking for most of us to endure a whole lot of hurt so you can get a bargain. Just remember, be careful of what you wish for, you just might get it. There are no guarantees in the market. If it goes to 12, it does not mean that it will go back up.
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Post by traitorjoe on Oct 11, 2012 12:52:48 GMT -8
Post-lunch "deep" thought after reading iPad's comment: Apple stock is like a tremendous accordion with the big boys playing the instrument. When they pull on the handles and prime the pump, money gets sucked in at a furious rate and fills it up fast (stock hits 705). Then the EOs squeeze that baby hard (sell!), and all that money goes shooting out into their pockets. The little guys get "played" in A minor. Question- so if we all agree that this seems to be the case and also that as Nansen says, we no longer have run ups prior to earnings and that there is also risk of run down after this report due to perception of earnings and/or guidance.... well then maybe shouldnt we all consider sitting things out or trading something else until after this earnings report ?? Just seems like Risk/Reward next few weeks is pretty poor
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Post by terps530 on Oct 11, 2012 12:52:50 GMT -8
Im fully loaded at the moment so yes I am very afraid of a p/e of 12 at the moment. I will not sell here and take a loss like this. I will wait months if I have to, to get back to my break even price of 690.00. ... ...If I can get back to break even I dont think I will ever use margin again. This has been a disaster. But in prospective Im still up around 50 dollars a share for year but its still not fun to ride a drop down like this. Good luck everyone I'm pretty sure you said this same exact thing 6 months ago after it fell from 644 to the 520s. Yet your average now somehow is 690... I mean you literally experienced the exact thing and then it ran from 530 to 700. why not learn from that? I am throwing up inside my mouth looking at the loss in my account over the last few days, but surprisingly i'm pretty calm, and I have near-expiration options! With just stock, i'd be 99% relaxed, because like others have said and articles from above, in 3-6months this will be a distant memory.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 12:59:12 GMT -8
My thought exactly about the Q 1 guidance. TC will have to address the concern about the component supply bottleneck for the IPhone 5 and whether they can bring supply and demand into harmony. These factors will be huge. Same concerns existed relative to IPad 3 and they executed. Hang in! Nothing wrong with the fundamentals at this point. This is what bugs me, TC has to answer questions that people on the outside do not know exist. Apple uses so many different suppliers that there is no way any analyst can know about shortages. Apple always has a lag from launch to balance. As an investor I want this to be a "problem" for an extended time. If demand was low, then it would be a problem. With the projected launch schedule, ramping should take a while.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2012 13:01:01 GMT -8
Wheeles, just to follow: wave 1 was the bounce off 625 on Tuesday; wave 2 was what happened today (down to 630), a retrace of the run from 625 to 647; and, wave 3 is yet to come, but is up? Is this correct? Thx. Yes, it would be up. That's assuming that I am reading this right. No idea about targets as I swore off Fibonacci a while back. Of course, I am sure some Elliott Wave guru would find some wave structure to say that we are going down, but I still maintain that the weekly middle Bollinger was the low of this move down, and a good run higher is ahead. I'm just a grasshopper, but here's my best guess (both bull and bear): AAPL INTRADAY ONE-HOUR CHART:
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 13:02:23 GMT -8
Terps, you nailed it. If someone holds shares this is just a 10% haircut. Hell, in the last 2 weeks I remember a couple of days where I lost 10% in a day. Big difference.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2012 13:13:04 GMT -8
The sun is slowly going down outside. At this rate, it will be gone forever after a few more hours... Love, Love, LOVE this -- thank you!!!!!!
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Post by Lstream on Oct 11, 2012 13:15:02 GMT -8
The sun is slowly going down outside. At this rate, it will be gone forever after a few more hours... Love, Love, LOVE this -- thank you!!!!!! You DO realize that this is going to make it damn cold outside, right?
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 11, 2012 13:17:27 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 13:22:41 GMT -8
Lovey, I see a 600.25 and a 620.25, is there a typo there?
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Post by rob_london on Oct 11, 2012 13:26:43 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2012 13:28:59 GMT -8
Look at AAPL price movements in Oct 11, Nov 11, and April 12. They all look similar to AAPL in Sept 2012. What they have in common is the fact that each hit ATH's or local highs and then declined. In each case AAPL bounced off the lower Bollinger Band at least twice before beginning a new uptrend. Unless news changes everything, I expect AAPL to hit the lower Bollinger one more time and with the RSI down to around 30 (or worse) at that time. Just MHO. +1
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2012 13:29:39 GMT -8
Lovey, I see a 600.25 and a 620.25, is there a typo there? Yes -- thank you!! Fixing...
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 11, 2012 13:32:09 GMT -8
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Post by fas550 on Oct 11, 2012 13:35:41 GMT -8
If you are longer term like myself (90% in 2014 LEAPS) and a few Apr 2013s remember this: The fundamentals have not changed. The product line is refreshed (really fresh). We are going into the holiday buying seasons for the west and followed by the east. Also 1. Options TRADERS need volatility to make money. 2. Near term traders need a lot of volatility to make a lot of money. Given 1 & 2 any news good and bad is viewed as an opportunity to leverage volatility. This is the same game played all the time and while I don't subscribe to the theory of direct manipulation, I do believe the volatility is created by the herd mentality. For example an analogy: I don't subscribe that there is an owner of a theater forcing everyone out claiming a fire but I do believe someone in the theater starts running slowly at first then quickening their pace and finally yelling fire as they exit the door therefore compelling the herd to get up and do the same. Just my .02 and keeping in perspective.
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