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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 12, 2012 13:34:43 GMT -8
The bar is open! Who could use a drink?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 12, 2012 13:39:06 GMT -8
Sure, why not. Fully prepared to see AMZN skyrocket and AAPL tank on Monday. (Which would be the exact opposite of what I'd want to happen.)
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coma
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Post by coma on Oct 12, 2012 14:50:40 GMT -8
I beat ya and started at 5:00.
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Post by cambrose on Oct 12, 2012 15:22:12 GMT -8
If Apple wanted to increase the dividend, how much advance notice does it have to give? Are there rules for that? Could it announce an increase at the next earnings call for the Nov payout or is that most definitely fixed at $2.65?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 12, 2012 15:45:22 GMT -8
If I am not mistaken I believe they only would require Board approval and can do it any time they wished. (Dividend)
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 12, 2012 15:46:35 GMT -8
After the price action this week, the root canal I had done this morning was a piece of cake....and actually RELAXING. Go figure!
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Post by cambrose on Oct 12, 2012 15:50:17 GMT -8
If I am not mistaken I believe they only would require Board approval and can do it any time they wished. (Dividend) Thanks! Just wonder how long before Apple gets the dividend up to a yield that really entices the masses. Looking forward to more than one data point.
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Post by sponge on Oct 12, 2012 16:13:35 GMT -8
Terrible week. And if history repeats itself next month can get even uglier.
Last year we corrected 15% from the high of $426 pre earning to $363 post earnings.
So if we get to about 680 by earnings and the numbers post earnings come in softer then everyone expected, get ready for more pain. That would take us to about $570.
One needs to be ready for that scenario just in case. Only because we speculate on the number of 4 and 4S that we sold last quarter regardless of great 5 sales. The iPad growth is a little hard to figure out and latest PC sales show a drastic slow down which may limit Mac growth
I am still modeling for a strong quarter 10.63 and strong guidance from Apple. If that plays out and with a positive Romney win and dividend following that we could even see $800 by Christmas.
So our stock in the next 3 months move somewhere between $570 and $800. Bet the wrong way and you will lose your shirt fast.
Buy and Hold and only get into long LEAPS. Everything else is pure gambling.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 12, 2012 16:21:54 GMT -8
After completely underwhelming earnings last quarter, I think analysts' expectations will be much, much closer to guidance. I don't think we blow out expectations or guidance. Which is why I think Q1 guidance will be the most important part of the earnings call. Assuming the low ball ways of the past are gone, it will be good insight into how healthy the production line is for the iPhone 5 and mini iPad.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 12, 2012 16:22:05 GMT -8
Hey, you tell me how LEAPS feel if AAPL hits 570. Personally, I'll be in small for AAPL earnings, or just plain staying the heck out of the way. Also, if your $10.63 prediction is even 50 cents over? Well that's a buck over the current analyst consensus - which I don't think is inclined to move higher after last quarter. I think WS would cheer a $10+ number. I'll miss the post-earnings run-up but I'll live somehow. I'll keep politely asking you to go easy on the broad brush. Many of us traders also buy and hold and use LEAP-type strategies. Many of us traders have also been at this for many years (I went through three downwaves myself) and somehow survived. It's not fair to call it gambling if some of us who trade are still standing after all this time.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 12, 2012 16:22:54 GMT -8
I check out American Bull for comedic value, but they currently have a "buy if", based on the Bullish Harami Cross Pattern formed between yesterday and today:
"The Bullish Harami Cross Pattern is a major upside reversal pattern. Short traders will not be wise to ignore the significance of a harami cross just after a long black candlestick. Harami crosses point out to the bottoms.
A third day confirmation of the reversal is recommended (though not required) to judge that the downtrend has reversed. The confirmation may be in the form of a white candlestick, a large gap up or a higher close on the next trading day."
We'll see what happens on Monday.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 12, 2012 16:26:47 GMT -8
American Bulls***. Always good for some entertainment, eh RG? By pure coincidence that only partly has to do with my eighth-baked grasp of Technicals for Dummies, 1970 Edition, I happen to think AAPL may have found its footing again. *** = I just felt like adding some asterisks. *looks in other direction, whistles random notes*
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Post by roni on Oct 12, 2012 16:41:06 GMT -8
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 12, 2012 16:47:05 GMT -8
... my eighth-baked grasp of Technicals for Dummies, 1970 Edition... eighth-baked... hmmm.... Does that mean you smoked the whole eighth? In 1970, I mean.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 12, 2012 16:50:50 GMT -8
I knew I shoulda used a different decade...
mannn.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 12, 2012 16:57:02 GMT -8
American Bulls***. Always good for some entertainment, eh RG? By pure coincidence that only partly has to do with my eighth-baked grasp of Technicals for Dummies, 1970 Edition, I happen to think AAPL may have found its footing again. *** = I just felt like adding some asterisks. *looks in other direction, whistles random notes* I thought that would rattle your cage, Mav.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 12, 2012 17:01:13 GMT -8
Where's my triple-Smite button... Ah, we've been cool on that for a while now. The way _I_ remember it, I laughed it off and your cage was rattled. (Kidding, kidding.)
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icam
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Post by icam on Oct 12, 2012 17:19:58 GMT -8
I anticipate iPad mini to be a great addition to Apples product portfolio and to AAPL's fundamentals over the medium to long term. They are going to sell a lot of them. The halo will get bigger.
I also anticipate that the FUD's will use it to somehow make it a negative development for AAPL in an effort to try to drive the stock price lower. They'll talk about how it's going to have narrower margins than current products, or that it will cannibalize the regular iPad, or pick your FUD propaganda to somehow spin this as bad for AAPL. Call me jaded, but I'm used to the MF'ing Anchors, and the so called professional Money Managers, parading across CNBC (I hear about their appearances on that channel), or writing some opinion article, bashing Apple, and oh, that also benefits their short AAPL position.
Further adding fuel to the shorts negative sentiment stories will be if Apple should "miss" earnings. Short term they are going to try as hard as they can to drive it lower, and they might succeed, but by January earnings the rebound will have happened in a major way.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 12, 2012 22:23:29 GMT -8
and with a positive Romney win Actually, if you look at history, it doesn't matter who wins, either way the removal of uncertainty is good for the market. Right now there are two camps of people, those who believe an Obama win will be disastrous, and those who believe a Romney win will be disastrous. After Nov 6th, one group's fears will be allayed, and the other's fears will be proved wrong & irrelevant ;-) Really, one or the other might be better (and I'm not going to broach that discussion here), but either one will be much better than neither ;-)
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 12, 2012 22:24:42 GMT -8
Personally, I'll be in small for AAPL earnings, or just plain staying the heck out of the way. Or strangle...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 12, 2012 23:49:10 GMT -8
That depends on AAPL being in a position to make a major directional move in either direction. IV will be no joke around then and it'll deflate unbelievably fast after earnings.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 13, 2012 2:16:58 GMT -8
I'm absolutely staying out for earnings. Lost count of the times I've ended up on the wrong side of a big earnings move, both up and down. Apple earnings used to be a slam dunk, now they are a total coin toss.
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Post by flyonthewall on Oct 13, 2012 5:31:15 GMT -8
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Post by nocturno on Oct 13, 2012 6:45:32 GMT -8
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Post by sleepygeek on Oct 13, 2012 7:12:07 GMT -8
My version of the story remains: Apple supports an open internet and open standards, licensable by anyone, within which Apple or anyone else can offer either open or proprietary products. Google now wants to destroy any proprietary platform except their own, be it from Apple, from Microsoft, from RIM, or anyone else. The reason is that they can't install their search spy cams inside other proprietary platforms. Hence they can't preserve their monopoly. While trumpeting open, Google actually fixes Android to be proprietary. Large parts of the platform and the linked services are fully proprietary, and the "open" part is proprietary right up to the moment when a release ships on some smartphone. And before any fork of the platform can get going, there's a new release just emerging from behind the scenes. Any OEM "partner" who doesn't treat Android as fully proprietary is locked out of the release cycle, and is going to be 9 months to a year behind competitors. That imeans out of business in the smartphone world. Google has done many wonderful things. But its motto "don't be evil" isn't one of them. Apple's product is proprietary. But so is Google's, and it's heavily protected by patents that are the core of its business and that make it a near monopoly. Google's product is spying on web users and selling the data to the highest bidder. Google is the one with antitrust problems these days, not Apple or Microsoft. Apple is still a minority player in its markets. (tablets aren't a separate market from PC's). Google trumpets "open" and "don't bother us with patents - they simply slow innovation". It's a big lie. Unlike Apple, their entire business and its ensuing monopoly is based on a patent. If Google really supported "open", they would donate Android to the world, and develop it going forward as a global collaboration of volunteers, just like Linux, and they would license their search patents to anyone who wanted to use them.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 13, 2012 7:32:17 GMT -8
FWIW: I believe AAPL is the largest component of QQQ and SPY. Posted by Ivanhoff on October 13th, 2012 The major market indexes $QQQ and $SPY closed below their 50dma for the first time since July. Their long-term trend is still intact, but one has to be blind not to notice the piling up of distribution days over the past month. What is the essence of distribution? It is basically a transfer of ownership from strong hands to weak hands and on the charts is recognized as high volume, big range one-day declines. By “strong hands” I refer to people that bought breakouts from proper bases. As long as they are in the game, corrections are likely to be shallow, because they operate from a position of profit. By weak hands, I refer to people that missed the initial breakouts from proper bases and now are anxious to jump on any pullback. By buying stocks in a correction mode, they put themselves in a vulnerable position from a psychological perspective and even the slightest further weakness is likely to scare them and therefore exacerbate the downtrend. How serious is the current market correction? Judge for yourself. Here are the six symptoms of deeper market corrections: 1) Momentum stocks lead to the downside. Lists like St50 and IBD50 underperform the market averages. 2) There are less and less good long setups to be found, which is usually a normal result of a previous rally that sent a lot of stocks to the stratosphere 3) Breakouts are scarce and don’t find follow-through 4) There is poor reaction to good news like positive earnings surprises and upgrades 5) There are huge 25-40% one-day drops in some liquid stocks 6) Longer-term moving averages like 100dma and 200dma come into play. In healthy market environments, the real momentum leaders rarely drop below their 10, 20 and 50dma. Anything below that is a sign of worsening risk appetite. Last week, we pointed out the underperformance in momentum stocks. As it is often the case, they turned out to be a good leading indicator for the overall market. During shallow market corrections or as I like to call them – sector rotations – most market leaders remain unscathed. During real pullbacks, they get hit first, which is a good sign of diminishing risk appetite. For the week, the St50 momentum index declined 2.82% – a little better than $QQQ, but behind the $SPY. Two groups of stocks shined last week – biotechs, which are usually not correlated with the general market and often live in their own world; and coal stocks, which have made their N-th attempt to rally from the bottom. The recent rise in natural gas prices and rumors of impending bigger stimulus in China are the catalysts behind the recent move in coal. When all is said and done, they remain in longer-term downtrends and they have a lot more work to do before they entice any momentum investor to put money there. Of course, when it comes to momentum, everything depends on your time frame of operation. Corrections are a normal stage of the market cycle. The silver lining is that they allow extended stocks to form new bases and make the spotting of potential future leaders easier. Pay attention to relative strength. Which stocks are making new 52-week highs or are holding near 52-week highs while the general market is falling? The correction in May, earlier this year, highlighted for us stocks like $PCYC $ELLI $DDD $MLNX, which outperformed substantially after the market started to recover. Earnings season is here. The good news is that both analysts’ and the market’s expectations are not too high, which is usually a predisposition for real market surprises. Genuine surprises start new trends or accelerate existing ones. As with any other news, market reaction is more important than the news itself. $JPM and $WFC beat the estimates on Friday, but sold off. It is true that financials have rallied in expectations of good earnings, but nevertheless it is never a positive sign when stocks decline on good news. From the St50 list, next week are scheduled to report: $LNN, $SYNT, $EBAY and $XXIA I am not going to finish the weekly review with a highlight of good setups this time. The market is in a correction mode, meaning that the few proper setups we have left have a low probability of following through. As always, any major developments on the list will be mentioned on my StockTwits stream. stocktwits50.com/2012/10/13/stocktwits-50-october15/
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Post by roni on Oct 13, 2012 8:33:58 GMT -8
The state of our accounts is still good
Dividend positions have grown to a little over 31% of our IRAs - there are 14 positions and Apple shares are an equal weight position.
We we get overweight AAPL is in Jan 2014, Jan 2015 and April 2013 options - all unhedged calls. 61% of the IRA's are there, weighted heavily to Jan 2014 $600's
Add in small Jan 2014 QCOM $62.50 position and a smidgen of cash and there you have it.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 13, 2012 8:43:26 GMT -8
artman, excellent article -- thank you for posting it!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 13, 2012 8:46:28 GMT -8
I'm absolutely staying out for earnings. Lost count of the times I've ended up on the wrong side of a big earnings move, both up and down. Apple earnings used to be a slam dunk, now they are a total coin toss. +1 Since JAN'11, my best earnings play was the one time I didn't play. I'm going to try that one again. I may -- just may, haven't decided yet -- play the after-earnings fade play. That one, at least, seems consistent. Whatever the initial reaction: the next move goes the other way.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 13, 2012 10:02:59 GMT -8
I anticipate iPad mini to be a great addition to Apples product portfolio and to AAPL's fundamentals over the medium to long term. They are going to sell a lot of them. The halo will get bigger. I also anticipate that the FUD's will use it to somehow make it a negative development for AAPL in an effort to try to drive the stock price lower. They'll talk about how it's going to have narrower margins than current products, or that it will cannibalize the regular iPad, or pick your FUD propaganda to somehow spin this as bad for AAPL. Call me jaded, but I'm used to the MF'ing Anchors, and the so called professional Money Managers, parading across CNBC (I hear about their appearances on that channel), or writing some opinion article, bashing Apple, and oh, that also benefits their short AAPL position. Further adding fuel to the shorts negative sentiment stories will be if Apple should "miss" earnings. Short term they are going to try as hard as they can to drive it lower, and they might succeed, but by January earnings the rebound will have happened in a major way. Short interest in AAPL is minuscule.
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