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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 2, 2020 13:56:51 GMT -8
There you go, trying to time the market again Yeah, every 5 years or so, I forget I have no investing skills to speak of other than buy AAPL and don't sell. For me, I've realized it's really hard to time both a drop and a rise. Instead, if I just focus on one side of it, and don't care about the absolute bottom or top, I can do ok. For AAPL or the market, that means being able to feel that a overcorrection on the low side, and then a 20% recovery of the total drop, was the bottom. That doesn't mean it's the very bottom or the last bottom, but on a strong company like Apple, or even a big index, that has worked out ok. You seem to really enjoy trying to do well in the market so it's an excellent reason to want to get good at it. Fortunately, I don't have the interest because I seem to suck at it when I occasionally try to do so. We're slowly getting into your shoes, of having more than we need and more than I think we would want to pass along to our family, maybe not at this point for us but when compounding into the future. Sure, we have friends and people in town with much more, so whether that's a "ohhh, a wakeboard board looks fun ($150k)", or "wow, the fastest personal prop plane, that flight time is amazing (clueless, but add in flight instruction as an expensive hobby)", that still would only put a dent in things. At the same time, there's always someone who has more, and always some things you can't (really) afford, nor really want to. I remember when we first started seriously investing in AAPL in 2000 and hoped to eventually have 4-6 million for our retirement. Now it's become ridiculous in a sense. If I were 30 instead of 77, I'd have more chances to make a dent. My wife and I were both raised to be frugal and I find myself having to push her to buy things with what she refers to as "Monopoly money". I guess that's better than the opposite attitude. Her favorite store is Sur la Table, which sells kitchenware products and more than once, I've actually heard her say, "I love this pan", while cleaning it after making dinner. Wait, a wakeboard for $150K? That would have to be some wakeboard. 😂 Instead of attempting to find ways to spend the excess influx, I suggest for your penance of doubting the speed of AAPL's rebound, you make a large donation to one or more organizations that you enjoy or value. While my list is the NV Food Bank for their amazing value of claiming 3 meals per $1, and the Tahoe Rim Trail Association (Crew Leader) and Tahoe Area Mountain Bike Association (Crew Leader and Board member) for the great multiuse trails that they build and maintain, we each have our own local groups that help support things we see or use. We do Second Harvest Food Bank and a few others on a regular basis. And no penance required, IMO, since I didn't doubt AAPL at all; not after seeing AAPL lose 30+% over the years for not much reason at all. I just felt, and still feel, that this country is acting like the pandemic is a thing of the past, and, judging from the increased death rates in far too many states, it's definitely not. On that front, look at a Charitable Donor Advised Fund. I need to talk with Schwab about it, since I don't think TD, even with their merger/buyout, has them yet. In general, they seem like a good way make donations, while also giving you a little extra tax incentive. And in CA, that's especially important. I'll take a look.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 2, 2020 16:32:46 GMT -8
"ohhh, a wakeboard board looks fun ($150k)", Wait, a wakeboard for $150K? That would have to be some wakeboard. 😂 See, we all make mistakes. Some are just more costly than others. Yep, that was a wakeboard boat. I don't really have an itch for one, and just get a bit bugged by the waves put out by them when out paddle boarding. But if I was convinced that buying expensive toys would make me happier, that would be one way to attempt it. Instead I'll look to some new Apple products, maybe a watch or two in addition to a new iPhone for my wife this fall. That's a good start. We're very familiar with Sur La Table, having lived near the Santana Row one, though we bought most of our All Clad collection from the all-clad seconds store. But I have a great picture of my wife filling the baby bath tub using an All-Clad pot. Now 13 years later, I need to go pour the Kombacha tea out of it. Stainless still gets stained by tea. BTW, congrats! You're right, having to combat frugal natures when you have plenty is better than the opposite. Like I mentioned elsewhere, this bump is helping remind us that yes we can go ahead and upgrade the windows, while we finalize a small kitchen bump-out. And while we could upgrade to a more expensive house, we don't really have a need for such things even if looking at expensive real-estate is interesting at times. OTOH, there's a much bigger range of lakefront properties on the CA side, and we could pick up something that was a little more modest. Anyways, good to have flexibility, while having the background and even desire to keep things in check.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 3, 2020 22:12:15 GMT -8
On that front, look at a Charitable Donor Advised Fund. I need to talk with Schwab about it, since I don't think TD, even with their merger/buyout, has them yet. In general, they seem like a good way make donations, while also giving you a little extra tax incentive. And in CA, that's especially important. I'll take a look. Here's some info from MorningStar on Donor advised funds (DAF). www.morningstar.com/articles/825629/is-a-donor-advised-fund-right-for-youIt says Fidelity/Schwab/Vanguard all have 0.6% annual fees (so $100 on 16.6k, $300 on $50k). Unless going with $250k+, you pick from their funds to invest in. But, it lets you put in appreciated stock, and their example even uses AAPL. For appreciated stock, your deduction is limited to 30% of your AGI. But since that includes dividends, along with capital gains and more normal income, there are choices. The example shows that you end up with more to donate, and much more to deduct. A friend recommended it to me, and while I knew there were ways to donate appreciated stock, like they say there are many smaller charities that aren't set up for that, directly. Using a DAF makes it so you can use appreciated stock, and yet they just get a check. It even lets you pass on a DAF to your heirs, if you don't donate it all. I figure it would let me maximize both my deductions and donations, while also letting me time the donation (important as you have to itemize) and yet make the donations as I see fit. Sounds good to me, even if I would prefer even lower costs, and being able to keep part of it in AAPL. (EDIT: With potentially rising tax rates, and yet potential limits on deduction rates, it's hard to know if it will be better to wait to contribute to a DAF. This article talks about some important parts of DAFs, though in general it says the 3 from above are all good: www.morningstar.com/articles/837668/5-questions-to-ask-when-choosing-a-donor-advised-fund ) (Addition December 28th 2020: I opened one, at Schwab. It was pretty straightforward, only taking 30 minutes to open, plus time for my spouse to add herself. Transferring stock in from a non-schwab account took around 4 business days. I split my transfers up since it is time delayed and so you don't know exactly when (and thus at what price) things will move in. But, since it's the end of 2020, it looks like I have missed transferring in a second batch. Luckily now that funds are in, the timing on making donations doesn't matter much. We'll make most of ours this time around in January or February, giving funds to organizations that need them, but having it next year in case the bump in donations in 2020 doesn't carry through)
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Post by cathysan on Aug 16, 2020 7:03:10 GMT -8
Thank you so much for your reply. I actually sold my few AAPL last March 2020. I recently purchased a few again. I will post this message of yours on my wall as a gentle reminder to stay focused when the going gets tough...knowing that AAPL's fundamental is sound.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 28, 2020 14:37:10 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 9, 2021 14:20:46 GMT -8
These 9 lessons are excellent advice, 4aapl! Thanks so much for posting it...I'll be sending the article to our grandchildren. I'm also going to repost it in the thread, "A Modest Proposal for AAPL Longs (apologies to J. Swift)" because I'd like others to be sure to see it if they're looking into establishing accounts for their children or grandchildren.
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 24, 2022 14:27:28 GMT -8
======================================= Thanks, Dave for making this post last week. The part that really got to me was Gordon Reid's statement, " We continue to like Apple but, from a portfolio management standpoint, it was becoming a higher weight because of its success.” This is the same guy who was described as preferring "to stay fully invested in stocks he believes will do well over time”. Huh? So…AAPL was becoming “a higher weight because of its success”…even though they’ve trimmed it seven times since 2006? OK, I get it. The only way to keep that from happening again was to sell the stock. Crazy, IMO. However, I was pleased to read that several commenters on PED’s site are also 100% invested in AAPL. In the very first post I made when I started this thread back in 2015, I gave an accounting of how my wife and I came to be 100% invested in AAPL, and while I've never encouraged anyone else to do that, I can’t say I’m an advocate of diversification for diversifications-sake, either. I’m still amazed to read accountings of investors who sell *any* stock which has grown enough to exceed a certain percentage of their portfolio. Typically, it’s 5% of the portfolio...but I could never understand why folks thought it made sense to sell *any* stock from one’s portfolio just because the stock was out performing the others. Concern about the stock or company’s future performance, sure…but not for out-performance. Lately I’ve gotten more grief from other commenters on Seeking Alpha who consider investing success, while invested in only one stock, lucky. Is luck involved? Of course! Where would we be in investing without luck or good fortune? But my wife and I never totally invested in AAPL with the idea that we would hold the stock forever, regardless of Apple's management team, product success, etc. We could have, and would have, sold all our shares if the 2-5 year future didn’t look promising. I’ve also never considered AAPL to be the only stock in which one could invest 100% of one’s portfolio and do well over the long term...and I finally got around to constructing a spreadsheet which, I think, shows this quite clearly. I compared AAPL, AMZN, TSLA and, a stock with which I was unfamiliar…MNST...Monster Beverage Corporation. Even though I could have used any value for the amount invested, I used $10,000 as an amount that wouldn’t be outrageous for a one-time investment, even thought I believe many, if not most, people invest in a company several times over months or years, rather than all at once...but this is just an illustration. So, $10,000 invested in AAPL amounted to about $5.6M over 20+ years and the same amount invested in TSLA got almost half way there in 12. AMZN did well with the $10,000 but not as good as AAPL. MNST, however, returned twice what AAPL did over almost the same time interval. Apologies for any math errors I’ve made but, even with math errors, this indicates to me that 100% investment in other stocks may have done as well or better than investing in AAPL. That being said, I'm still pleased that the stock we picked so long ago was AAPL. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!! 😎
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 25, 2022 6:28:03 GMT -8
Guessing you mean MSFT, and not Monster beverage
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 25, 2022 7:38:22 GMT -8
Guessing you mean MSFT, and not Monster beverage No...I meant Monster Beverage Corporation.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Sept 25, 2022 9:58:24 GMT -8
Thanks for this thread. I just shared it with a young friend that is just getting started in investing and I though that it would be a great example of what is truly possible. Few people have as detailed of an example in front of them as you have provided.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 29, 2023 20:24:02 GMT -8
Last year, 2022, was a tough year for investors. But as painful as it’s been for AAPL investors, it’s important to remember that shareholders of other companies were also experiencing similar fluctuations(mostly downward) in their investments. As can be seen from the table below, the most impacted stock among the 6 I’ve listed was TSLA, down a whopping 69.2% in 2022. The least affected, although it didn’t seem so given the way the share price was battered, was AAPL, down 28.6% for 2022. At the end of last week, after TSLA had jumped just a little over 23% in two days in response to its earnings report, I was curious to see how they’re doing with regard to recovering from last years losses. As you can see from the table below, even with the recent surge in share price, TSLA has only recovered to being 44.5% of the $399.93 share price it had at the beginning of 2022. In fact, they’re last of the 6 stocks which have been recovering, even though the 64.6% change in share price from the first market day of 2023 is far ahead of 2nd place in 2023 gains…NFLX with a 22.3% gain. And then, there’s AAPL…thanks to it having the lowest percentage loss of the six in 2022, it’s recovered to 80.2% of the $182.01 share price from the first market day of 2022. Given the production supply problems Apple experienced in 2022, I’m sure most of the AFB members are hoping for at least a decent report after market close this coming Thursday. I hope we get a solid bump up after Thursday because it would be nice to permanently leave the $140's and start climbing towards a new ATH sometime in the near future. Cheers to the *very* patient AAPL Longs!
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 13, 2023 13:04:10 GMT -8
Last year, 2022, was a tough year for investors. But as painful as it’s been for AAPL investors, it’s important to remember that shareholders of other companies were also experiencing similar fluctuations(mostly downward) in their investments. As can be seen from the table below, the most impacted stock among the 6 I’ve listed was TSLA, down a whopping 69.2% in 2022. The least affected, although it didn’t seem so given the way the share price was battered, was AAPL, down 28.6% for 2022. View AttachmentAt the end of last week, after TSLA had jumped just a little over 23% in two days in response to its earnings report, I was curious to see how they’re doing with regard to recovering from last years losses. As you can see from the table below, even with the recent surge in share price, TSLA has only recovered to being 44.5% of the $399.93 share price it had at the beginning of 2022. In fact, they’re last of the 6 stocks which have been recovering, even though the 64.6% change in share price from the first market day of 2023 is far ahead of 2nd place in 2023 gains…NFLX with a 22.3% gain. And then, there’s AAPL…thanks to it having the lowest percentage loss of the six in 2022, it’s recovered to 80.2% of the $182.01 share price from the first market day of 2022. Given the production supply problems Apple experienced in 2022, I’m sure most of the AFB members are hoping for at least a decent report after market close this coming Thursday. I hope we get a solid bump up after Thursday because it would be nice to permanently leave the $140's and start climbing towards a new ATH sometime in the near future. Cheers to the *very* patient AAPL Longs! View AttachmentMy previous post contained a table showing the 2022 losses of 6 stocks, highlighting the stock with the least loss(AAPL) as well as a table showing which of those 6 stocks had recovered the most in 2023(TSLA). I updated those two tables as shown below...the first shows the ranking of the 6 stocks when comparing each of their share price last Friday, to their share price on the first market day of 2022. AAPL was the closest, at 83% of its share price on 01/03/22. The second table below shows which of the 6 is increasing the fastest in 2023...and, not surprisingly, that's TSLA which by last Friday, had increased 82.1% from its share price on 01/03/23. The stock with the least gain in 2023, as of last Friday, was GOOG at 5.8% gain for 2023. As much as I like to see easily interpreted data, I had no enthusiasm for frequently updating two tables...or even combining them into one table. So I decided to occasionally update a W/E chart will allow me to see the ongoing data as to how quickly these stocks are recovering and with the linear trendline a guess as to when the stock may regain the share price it had on 01/03/22. More days like today will certainly hasten that day for AAPL. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!! Note: Updated chart to extend timeline out to 06/08/23. This may give more accurate approximations from the linear trendlines.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 14, 2023 16:38:13 GMT -8
Thanks for the charts and tables. The stock a friend is in, TEAM, is up about 70% from it's low around October. And Nvidia is up just over 100% from its low.
There's plenty of room for huge profits for those that can time those right, or happen to guess well. As compared to the start of 2022, your tables show AAPL has done well, even if down. While I expect it's possible for one of these other companies to do better, once we're further out of this area, AAPL should do fairly well too.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 31, 2024 13:17:22 GMT -8
It's been almost a year since I've commented on this thread...but what's going on with AAPL and long-term AAPL investors made me want to do so now. There are many AAPL Longs on AFB and my wife and I have been firmly in that category for a very long time. Unfortunately, the fact that AAPL has already given so much to its long-term investors doesn't prevent me from focusing on the current AAPL share price every single day...and, in a way, that's ridiculous. At the moment, many of us are focused on the sales and share price impact of the AVP, the earnings report after market close tomorrow and the recent slow drifting down of the AAPL share price. The impact of the AVP will not be evident for 6 months to a year, IMO, and we obviously can't do anything about how the market treats AAPL on a daily basis with regards to share price...that's up to the market and to the analysts who love to provide negative Apple commentary, especially right before earrings. For those of us who strongly believe in Apple's continued success, it's a given that pullbacks in share price are excellent times to add new AAPL shares to one's portfolio...but the same holds true for those of us who auto-reinvest our AAPL dividends. As I said in the beginning of my comment, focusing so much on share price is shortsighted. It's *extremely* important for stock traders, but not so much for those invested long-term in stocks like AAPL. Since AAPL restarted its dividend program in August of 2012, my wife and I have auto-reinvested the AAPL dividends from the 60% of our AAPL shares that are in our IRA's...and it's been an incredible financial benefit to our portfolio. But, obviously, as the share price has increased, the number of new AAPL shares *purchased* each quarter with those dividends has decreased. Will the AAPL share price rise or fall after tomorrow's earnings report? The answer is yes...it will do one or the other. To help me stop focusing on the fluctuating AAPL share price so much, I put together a very small chart of how the number of new shares added by auto-reinvesting dividends *fell* last year as the share price increased. I don't know the exact date AAPL dividends will be paid this February, so I used last February's date. The whole point of the graph is to remind me, and other long-term AAPL investors who auto-reinvest their AAPL dividends that whether the AAPL share price rises or falls after tomorrow's earnings is unimportant in the short term. If it rises, fewer new AAPL shares from February's dividends...but increased worth of current AAPL shares. If it falls, increased number of new AAPL shares(meaning more *future* AAPL dividends) and *temporarily* decreased worth of current AAPL shares.
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coma
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Post by coma on Jan 31, 2024 13:31:42 GMT -8
Apple dividend payment date is February 16, 2024, for those of you interested.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 31, 2024 22:00:27 GMT -8
Unfortunately, the fact that AAPL has already given so much to its long-term investors doesn't prevent me from focusing on the current AAPL share price every single day...and, in a way, that's ridiculous. Thank you for saying that! When asked "what do you do?" these days I normally say that I am an investor. I tend to spend 40 hours or more, reading investing articles, watching the market, writing, being here on this site, or reading general articles. But to what end? Even if I have a feeling that the price is going to go up, or down, it is very rare that I do anything about it. Truthfully, it's more of a hobby. I have the ability to do other things instead. But too often I am "focusing on the current AAPL share price every single day...and, in a way, that's ridiculous". It's been fun to get out on the snow this week, especially since AAPL had bad days. If I was superstitious about it, I'd see a negative correlation there. Instead I just see the day to day erratic movements of AAPL and the market, and make peace with remembering that I am a very long term investor.
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Post by eastbaybob on Feb 3, 2024 12:13:45 GMT -8
I was just talking to my wife last night about how obsessed I am with Apple. When I met her sometime in the early ninety's she had a MacPlus which started my obsession. It was the first computer that I had used and I loved it. I quickly found newsgroup sites about Apple and read all I could find. My first computer was a 7500 Mac which I loved and was amazed how easy it was to add external hard drives, more memory and what was for me the killer add on, a negative film scanner. It was mind blowing to me to scan my negatives and see my photos at full screen on my Apple monitor and to be able to edit. After all these years, my obsession has stayed the same, I still voraciously read everything I can find on Apple. I am obsessed but I don't get agitated at all with the ups and downs of the stock price. It's almost like I am following one of my favorite sport teams. I am happy on a big up day, take a down day in stride. I retired in 2008 when I was 57. I made a large investment in Apple when the stock crashed in 2000 after bad earnings caused by the lack of sales of the Cube. I knew with the new OS X great things would be coming to Apple. With dividends I have good money coming in each quarter so my family and I have had a nice life without having to sell shares. In two years when RMD kicks in it will be the first time that I will be selling shares I do believe that as good as Apple has been for us since 2000, that even better days are ahead with all the new technology that is coming
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