benoir
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Post by benoir on Jun 3, 2018 22:19:51 GMT -8
Ten Years Retired given the username I chose when I joined the board which emphasized the fact I’ve never claimed to be a *savvy* investor, just a lucky one. not lucky, astute. having read your posts for a number of years, you're no fool
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 4, 2018 13:55:02 GMT -8
Dividends and new shares - We’ve also received $2,015,055,000 in dividends since Apple re-started their dividend program in August of 2012 and, since approximately 62% of our AAPL shares reside in our IRA’s, and our IRA dividends are set to auto-reinvest, those IRA dividends have been used to purchase a total of 11,638.17 shares over that period. With the recent dividend increase, our yearly AAPL dividends (trust and IRA's) are a little over 5 times (my pension[after 23 years] + my wife's pension[after 29 years] + my Social Security). Obviously, when I retired in 2008 and my wife in 2011, we had no expectations of dividends when doing our retirement planning, so it was just a wonderful surprise. Congrats Lucky! I think you do a great job of not boasting while showing real numbers that are extraordinary! But you might have went a little beyond extraordinary this time. Either that, or you are really overpaying for your shares, after Apple is really overpaying you on the dividend! I'd be happy to sell you as many shares as you can buy, at that average cost of $173141.91 per share Heck, I'll give you a 10% friends and family discount. Shares are standing by....
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 4, 2018 17:39:19 GMT -8
Dividends and new shares - We’ve also received $2,015,055,000 in dividends since Apple re-started their dividend program in August of 2012 and, since approximately 62% of our AAPL shares reside in our IRA’s, and our IRA dividends are set to auto-reinvest, those IRA dividends have been used to purchase a total of 11,638.17 shares over that period. With the recent dividend increase, our yearly AAPL dividends (trust and IRA's) are a little over 5 times (my pension[after 23 years] + my wife's pension[after 29 years] + my Social Security). Obviously, when I retired in 2008 and my wife in 2011, we had no expectations of dividends when doing our retirement planning, so it was just a wonderful surprise. Congrats Lucky! I think you do a great job of not boasting while showing real numbers that are extraordinary! But you might have went a little beyond extraordinary this time. Either that, or you are really overpaying for your shares, after Apple is really overpaying you on the dividend! I'd be happy to sell you as many shares as you can buy, at that average cost of $173141.91 per share Heck, I'll give you a 10% friends and family discount. Shares are standing by.... Hey, cut me some slack, 4aapl! I'm apparently older than I thought I was and can no longer accurately transfer a number from a spreadsheet to a post without cutting and and pasting. From now on, when using numbers from a spreadsheet, I need to remember that. So I guess this means I won't be buying 4,697 homes in South Lake Tahoe after all. Damn. :-) That dividend total should have been, of course, $2,015,055.00 and the cost/share should have been $173.141911486084152. Thanks so much for pointing out that *ridiculous* number I posted by mistake. Now, please...get off my lawn!! Just kidding...we don't have a lawn. And at least I got this part right, Cheers to the longs!! Note: I *still* screwed up. The $2,015,055.00 was a *total* of (trust dividends + IRA dividends). The AAPL shares were purchased with *only* the IRA dividend portion which was $1,214,455.66. So, the average share cost basis is really $104.35/share not $173.14. OK...I think all the math is now correct.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 4, 2018 17:59:29 GMT -8
Luckychoices, You Sir Are One Steely Eyed Missile Man! Sierra Hotel. The Crazy One Long AAPL Thanks, aaplcrazie. No one that knows me would refer to me as steely-eyed...and I was in the satellite, not the missile division. But I'll take it! Not knowing what Sierra Hotel meant, I had to do a search and the first meaning I came across was for Delta Sierra. Thankfully, Sierra Hotel was just below it and was better.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 4, 2018 18:02:32 GMT -8
Ten Years Retired given the username I chose when I joined the board which emphasized the fact I’ve never claimed to be a *savvy* investor, just a lucky one. not lucky, astute. having read your posts for a number of years, you're no fool Thank you, benoir! I appreciate your comment and will be printing it out to show my two sons.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 4, 2018 18:57:58 GMT -8
So I guess this means I won't be buying 4,697 homes in South Lake Tahoe after all. Damn. :-) Awwwww Here I was ready to go house hunting here on the North end of the lake. So far those juicy lakeside properties here have been out of my desired price range, but if you picked up my shares at 173k each, I'm sure I could pick up a nice little estate and have plenty to spare, being new to the billionaire status. But who knows, even without that boost I might be able to pick up one down there in South Lake with enough left to pay property taxes and still put food on the table. Oh well, as they say in the California lotto ads, "Dream a little dream for me". AAPL's lotto ticket has done well, but there's always something more if you start dreaming too much. Or just listening to the helicopter fly in and land on one of the docks. Milken has his own fireworks show, but on the 3rd instead of the standard town one on the 4th. Still, it's over the lake and visible down the beach, so it's perfect if you want to see a decent show, but without the crowds out the next day. I'm a little disheartened on fireworks, after spending a few hours doing the community cleanup this weekend. But still, sometimes you dream...
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Post by plcm123 on Jun 24, 2018 16:25:20 GMT -8
Lucky, thanks for sharing your impressive AAPL portfolio, and congrats. I am also a long AAPL shareholder since around 15 years ago, and have not sold a single share since I still have about another 15+years before retirement. Anyway, I’m starting to look at AMZN and NFLX with envy, but I have no regrets. Given how well Apple watch and iPhone are doing, and the future prospect for 5G and AR, etc... how much do you think AAPL will appreciate in the next 10 years on average, less than 10%, 10%, 15%, 20% or more?
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 24, 2018 21:21:05 GMT -8
Lucky, thanks for sharing your impressive AAPL portfolio, and congrats. I am also a long AAPL shareholder since around 15 years ago, and have not sold a single share since I still have about another 15+years before retirement. Anyway, I’m starting to look at AMZN and NFLX with envy, but I have no regrets. Given how well Apple watch and iPhone are doing, and the future prospect for 5G and AR, etc... how much do you think AAPL will appreciate in the next 10 years on average, less than 10%, 10%, 15%, 20% or more? Hi plcm123! Thanks and congrats to you for holding AAPL so many years and not selling a single share. Realizing the amazing gains their stocks have made over the yearsI can understand why it's easy for you to look with envy at AMZN and NFLX, . But, in general, I'm very much a skeptic of the stock market. Stocks rise and fall, many times with no relation to good or bad news for the companies themselves. As you know well after 15 years, AAPL is frequently very much affected by unsubstantiated rumors, but for various reasons, I have long term confidence in the continued success of Apple Inc_and I have no such confidence in AMZN and NFLX. Their appreciation may continue to far exceed AAPL but I'll continue to watch from the sidelines. Plus, dividends. And I'm afraid I'm also no help to you at all when it comes to forecasting Apple's future appreciation. I expect Apple will do at least as well over the next 10 years as they've done over the previous 10 years but I have nothing that I can point to as a basis for that expectation. In any case, plcm123, I hope you can resolve your AMZN and NFLX envy without lightening up on AAPL and I'll be looking forward to seeing your posts on the board over the next 10 years or so. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!!
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Post by plcm123 on Jun 25, 2018 10:07:39 GMT -8
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Lucky. I calculated AAPL appreciated roughly 30-35% average over the last 15 years, so if it continues to replicate the same rate the next 10 years, I would be ecstatic . Over the years I have many times tempted to sell but have not found the fundamental justification to, I'm sure you and other longs feel the same way. I've been reading and enjoying this board ever since the MacObserver days. I do see how sticky Amazon and NFLX products are, but comparing to Apple's I still think Apple has much more potential given the talents and the principle (or as they say their DNA) that they have. What do you think? I'm sorry I am not very articulate, maybe it's the confidence thing, I guess that's why I don't usually post or felt like I have anything better to contribute to the intradays and weekend update forum, comparing to the wise words that the other regular AFB members post.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 28, 2018 13:46:04 GMT -8
I'm sorry I am not very articulate, maybe it's the confidence thing, I guess that's why I don't usually post or feel like I have anything better to contribute to the intradays and weekend update forum, comparing to the wise words that the other regular AFB members post. Hi plcm123! OK, I have no idea why you have that feeling. I looked at your previous posts and they appear to be posted by a confident, articulate person. For example, take a look at this one from 10/02/15: ============ Friday, October 2, 2015: $110.38 +0.80 (0.73%) Oct 2, 2015 at 12:03pm coma, Luckychoices, and 5 more like this QuotelikePost Options Post by plcm123 on Oct 2, 2015 at 12:03pm By the way, I just want to say how much I love this forum. I've been a lurker here for a long time since MacObserver (sorry to mention that name). Though I enjoy reading your discussion about AAPL on a daily basis, what I look forward most are the words of wisdom and the great humor that aren't related to AAPL. I could tell there are a lot of intellectual people here with lots of life experiences. I hope I'm not alone, but I think it is a wonderful all-around educational tool. So, please keep it up everyone. I know it takes an effort to contribute each post, so thank you all :-) ============ See what I mean? Confident, articulate...and amiable. Note that 7 members *liked* what you posted. So your post reflected two characteristics you felt you may lack, plus another very important one you never considered. With very few exceptions, *everyone* on this board is very friendly and I'd encourage you to jump in and comment whenever you feel like commenting. Like you did earlier today for example: ============ 5 hours ago Luckychoices, mw1, and 1 more like this ReplyQuote like Post Options Post by plcm123 on 5 hours ago === chinacat said:"The expense of that component is a key reason iPhone X pricing starts at $1,000 and sales haven’t met initial expectations." The meme that will not die! === Since84 said:I have come to appreciate Wall Street underestimating Apple -- holding Apple to a higher standard than others. It affords an opportunity for us to accumulate and for Apple to retire as many shares as possible at a reasonable price. === plcm123 said: And to keep the expectation low enough for Apple earning to easily beat. === ============
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2019 16:54:09 GMT -8
Luckychoices, I thought you might enjoy this. At least I did. Fascinating that it actually distinguishes in intuitive terms the difference between risk and uncertainty. Financial advisors can't, which is why I find them worse than useless. ------------- www.epsilontheory.com/things-fall-apart-part-3-markets/To use Donald Rumsfeld’s oft-maligned but in-truth brilliant characterization, a risk is a “known unknown”. An uncertainty is something where we either cannot assign a reasonable probability of occurrence OR its potential impact is so great that thinking in terms of probabilities and expected utilities and risk versus reward doesn’t make much sense. In Rumsfeldian terms, uncertainty is an “unknown unknown” … Modern financial analysis and modern financial advice is very proficient when it comes to decision-making under risk. In fact, that’s all it is. Everything that your consultant tells you is based on decision-making under risk. Everything that your Big Bank model portfolio tells you is based on decision-making under risk. Everything that Modern Portfolio Theory tells you is based on decision-making under risk. It’s all an exercise in maximization – maximizing your expected return over a series of risk vs. reward decisions – and that works out perfectly well if you have stable historical data and well-defined current risks. Less well if you have unstable historical data and poorly defined current risks. Cough, cough. On the other hand, modern financial analysis and modern financial advice is useless when it comes to decision-making under uncertainty. Worse than useless, really, because you will get actively bad recommendations from an expected utility maximization machine (which is what modern financial analysis really is) when you apply it to questions of uncertainty. It’s like using a saw when you need a hammer. Not only do you have no chance of driving in that nail, but you’re going to damage the wood. … in practice for many investors, maybe most investors, is that the right thing to do to hedge their portfolio against the Three Horsemen is … NOTHING. I know, I know … I’m talking against my self-interest here, but my strong belief is that almost all investors, especially investors with a long time horizon, are making a mistake if they actively hedge their portfolios in advance against poorly defined yet well known event risks. This, too, shall pass, or maybe it never even happens, or maybe it doesn’t happen the way everyone thought it would. I’ve seen waaaay too many investors (civilians and professionals alike) zig when they should zag, close the barn door after the horse is out, overpay for insurance, tie themselves into knots … I’ve got a thousand metaphors for misplaying prospective event risk with portfolio hedges.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 12, 2020 14:15:36 GMT -8
I neglected to do an update to this thread on 05/19/19 since the share price had dropped all the way down to the low $140’s early in 2019 and, therefore, wasn’t much higher than it was the previous year on 05/19/18. Since then however, it’s been pretty amazing, even for long-term AAPL Longs. We may have seen similar momentum in share price in the past, but a surge as strong as this doesn’t come to mind. I mentioned in my 05/19/18 update that, over the 10 year period since I retired on 05/19/08, the value of our AAPL shares have increased an average of just under $3M/year. This was remarkable to me since the only AAPL shares we’ve purchased since my wife retired in 2011 have been the ones we purchased with our IRA dividends every quarter since August of 2012 which has added a total of 15,359.2 new shares of AAPL to our IRA’s, with an average cost basis of $121.58. The tremendous surge of the share price in 2019 and early days of 2020, however, has made the 12-year-average just over $4.3M/year and we’re still a little over 4 months from 05/19/20, my 12-years-retired date. That’s just ridiculous…in a good way. As I’ve mentioned previously, thanks to Apple restarting the dividend program in 2012, our current yearly AAPL dividends ~ 5 X (my pension[23 years]+wife's pension[29 years]+my Social Security). I still get lambasted over on Seeking Alpha for not being diversified and warned that past sure-thing stocks have financially disappointed long-term shareholders. So many commenters still state that they’re selling off shares of AAPL since it’s gone up so much that its share value has exceeded the maximum percentage that an individual stock should represent in their portfolio. I obviously don’t agree with that idea and one commenter on SA posted an, obviously old (1996), comment about that very subject from Warren Buffet: “To suggest that this investor should sell off portions of his most successful investments simply because they have come to dominate his portfolio is akin to suggesting that the Bulls trade Michael Jordan because he has become so important to the team”. That’s not to suggest that Buffett doesn’t support diversification to provide risk management…for those not invested in AAPL. Let's hope this recent share price momentum continues and the earnings on 01/28/20 are a blowout success. Cheers to the AAPL Longs! I first started this thread on May 25, 2015 and it's remarkable to me to now view this chart and realize how much the AAPL share price has increased since then.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 12, 2020 20:40:36 GMT -8
Nice Lucky! Thanks for sharing. It's amazing how well the stock, and all of us that have been invested in it over the long term, have done. Given the past 10 years, I truly never expected that AAPL would make progress so quickly on finally breaking out of the P/E range it had been stuck in for so long. As I’ve mentioned previously, thanks to Apple restarting the dividend program in 2012, our current yearly AAPL dividends ~ 5 X (my pension[23 years]+wife's pension[29 years]+my Social Security). Finally one place where we are doing better than Lucky. With no pension for either of us, and the currently first chance at Social Security 18 years out, our current yearly AAPL dividends reach the grand multiple of infinite (or undefined) vs our pension and SS take. YES! I do plan to sell a few shares, but for now just to knock down the margin account. And at some point we'll be "selling" some shares to put into a donor advised fund. www.fidelitycharitable.org/guidance/philanthropy/what-is-a-donor-advised-fund.htmlIt's been quite a ride, and it looks to continue at a continually varying rate. But currently, it still looks and seams that AAPL should beat the market on average over a longer 3, 5, or 10 year period. It might not, if punished greatly at the next stumble. But, the realization of multiple stable income streams, along with Apple buying out the low hanging shares, might be enough this time to make an AAPL retrace only match the market decline, or even be less of a retrace. Now that would be quite a change from history!
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 19, 2020 17:02:26 GMT -8
I've been keeping this table as part of my Apple spreadsheet for some time now. It helps me to keep the surges and pullbacks of AAPL share price in perspective. My table shows that the pullback years, 2002, 2008, 2015 & 2018 were never followed by a *consecutive* pullback year and the smallest recovery year was 2016 which only showed a 10% gain, even though 2015 was the smallest pullback year of the four, by far. Now I realize that these percentages don't capture the *actual* total percentage of a pullback in share price and it was never really meant to do so. For example, the pullback in 2018 went from a high, on 10/03/18, of $232.07 down to $156.23 at the end of 2018 for a -32.7% pullback from its 2018 high. That pullback then continued into 2019 until the share price finally bottomed out at $142.19, on 01/03/19, for a total pullback of -38.7%. My table shows a pullback of -8.4% for 2018, whereas the *actual* pullback lasted almost three months of 2018 and the price ended up down almost -39% by the time the share price direction reversed in the first days of 2019. So, considering that the table doesn't tell the whole story of a pullback, how does it help? It helps because it takes me out of the moment of the surge or pullback in share price and forces me to look at what the AAPL share price has done, year after year, since 2001...and that's continue to climb higher. I'm confident there will be discouraging, seemingly unwarranted pullbacks in share price in the future, but the table always reminds me that my wife and I are in for the long term, and, IMO, the long term makes all the difference for AAPL investors. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!!
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Jan 20, 2020 7:38:42 GMT -8
Thank you Lucky, I just printed your post and graph for future reference for myself and to share with others.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 9, 2020 14:40:59 GMT -8
Since my wife and I are confirmed AAPL Longs, we've held every share of AAPL very tightly over the years, not selling a single share even when stock/AAPL futures looked bleak and the pundits were encouraging folks to sell their AAPL shares. That all ended when I turned 70.5 years of age and became subject to satisfying a yearly RMD (Required Minimum Distribution) and I was forced to start removing AAPL shares from my IRA’s by either selling the shares or moving them to a trust account. In either case, taxes needed to be paid on the transaction. I now have very mixed emotions regarding the AAPL share price. Since August of 2012, I’ve never been too disturbed when the share price pulled back because, if it was close to dividend time, the AAPL dividends that ended up in our IRA accounts bought more shares of AAPL at the lower share price when they were auto-reinvested. However, since I’m required to sell a specific dollar amount from my two IRA’s each year, the higher the share price during the year, the fewer share I have to sell. I’m not complaining, just explaining. This is the tradeoff: 1. Lower AAPL share price means more shares purchased with AAPL dividends when auto- reinvested 2. However, higher AAPL share price means selling fewer shares to satisfy the yearly RMD 3. However, higher AAPL share price on the last market day in December also increases the RMD for the next year. So, even though the increasing AAPL share price during 2019 was wonderful for satisfying my 2019, it made the value of my two IRA’s on that last market day of December 2019, high enough that my 2020 RMD increased 90% from the 2019 RMD. Of course, it makes sense that the RMD would increase about as much, percentage wise, as the share price, it was still…um…interesting. Again, not complaining, just explaining. In any case, Cheers to the AAPL Longs!! Especially to those for whom the RMD requirements are *far* in the future.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 9, 2020 16:14:14 GMT -8
I started looking at the percentage increase table I posted recently and wondered how it might look if I expanded it out to include the last 20 years instead of just showing the percentage gains for holding shares since 2001. I meant well but I had to shrink the size of my attachment so much to meet the 1M size restriction that it may be a tad hard to read such small print. Sorry about that.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 21, 2020 10:54:23 GMT -8
I started looking at the percentage increase table I posted recently and wondered how it might look if I expanded it out to include the last 20 years instead of just showing the percentage gains for holding shares since 2001. I meant well but I had to shrink the size of my attachment so much to meet the 1M size restriction that it may be a tad hard to read such small print. Sorry about that. View AttachmentYou might want to adjust the timeframes of your yearly data so that it's the same day, like the closing price on Dec 31st. By using the closing price on Dec 31st, and the opening price in Jan, you miss out on some gains and losses. This year, the variance was almost $7, between the two prices you are using.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 6, 2020 12:12:37 GMT -8
I started looking at the percentage increase table I posted recently and wondered how it might look if I expanded it out to include the last 20 years instead of just showing the percentage gains for holding shares since 2001. I meant well but I had to shrink the size of my attachment so much to meet the 1M size restriction that it may be a tad hard to read such small print. Sorry about that. You might want to adjust the timeframes of your yearly data so that it's the same day, like the closing price on Dec 31st. By using the closing price on Dec 31st, and the opening price in Jan, you miss out on some gains and losses. This year, the variance was almost $7, between the two prices you are using. Thank for the input, 4aapl! Glad you checked and pointed out my obvious brain freeze. I calculated the stair step percentages correctly but for some reason, screwed up the vertical calculations which obviously should have matched in value. As you can notice in my old table (bottom table) I've boxed the values that should have been equal to one another and I've now corrected the calculations on the new table. I've also added data to the table itself so please give it a quick scan for other blunders I may have made. Sorry it took me two weeks to get to it and thanks again!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 6, 2020 13:28:38 GMT -8
You might want to adjust the timeframes of your yearly data so that it's the same day, like the closing price on Dec 31st. By using the closing price on Dec 31st, and the opening price in Jan, you miss out on some gains and losses. This year, the variance was almost $7, between the two prices you are using. Thank for the input, 4aapl! Glad you checked and pointed out my obvious brain freeze. I calculated the stair step percentages correctly but for some reason, screwed up the vertical calculations which obviously should have matched in value. As you can notice in my old table (bottom table) I've boxed the values that should have been equal to one another and I've now corrected the calculations on the new table. I've also added data to the table itself so please give it a quick scan for other blunders I may have made. Sorry it took me two weeks to get to it and thanks again! View AttachmentView AttachmentIt depends on how accurate you want it. You have some rounding errors. Looking at the "2000" data, which is really based on the day before 2001, it looks like you round up the number of shares purchased, but then in the cell below you use the fractional share. So you got 10869.something, which you used in the lower cell, but then rounded up to 10870 shares above. It should instead round down (fractional shares weren't a thing back then), and then use that whole number. That's just a minor thing. I couldn't quite figure out what you did to get the average return, but you want annualized. I don't remember the excel equation anymore, but on Apple's calculator, you use the x^y equation, and the y root x equation. So in this case use the y root x, putting 360 (3.6M/10k) in for x, and 19 years in for y. You get 1.363, which means there has been an annualized return of 36.3% over the past 19 years. The cool thing for this is that you can put in fractional years, and you can look forward instead of back. So, for options or otherwise, if I want to see what AAPL would be in 1 2/3 years at a 20% annualized rate, I use x^y, with x at 1 + the percentage, so in this case 1.2. For y I put in years, so 1.66 years. That gives 1.35. Multiply it by the current price of AAPL, $331.50, and you get that if AAPL advances at an annualized rate of 20%, then in 1 2/3 years, the stock will be at $448.66. That's a gain of $117.16 per share. You can choose to add in the expected dividend or not. For 1,000 shares, that's a nice increase of $117,160, all from just an annualized rate of 20%. For completeness, I've been considering writing covered calls. A 20% annualized rate is pretty good, with the dividend and the option premium as nice little bonuses of maybe 3% annualized. But just for kicks, AAPL almost always feels a little undervalued, so I like to add in a one time 10% bonus, of the price that I would feel comfortable selling some shares at. So, using that same 1.66 years, I again get a multiple of 1.35. Adding in 10% makes it 1.45. From $331.50, that makes $480.67. The 1.66 years was from a couple weeks ago, looking at January 2022. So from then, and given my thought pattern, I would be willing to sell at $480 in Jan '22. And, the call would be worth around $10/share now. Anyways, the kids are always surprised to hear that I do math all day long, or at least for a bit when I'm trying to consider realistic expectations. It was good to hear that my 7th grader was doing a financial piece in social studies this week, that dealt with this a little, though the biggest part was separating a want from a need. He seemed to get it easily, and it was helpful to hear it from a non-parent.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 7, 2020 11:05:59 GMT -8
Thank for the input, 4aapl! Glad you checked and pointed out my obvious brain freeze. I calculated the stair step percentages correctly but for some reason, screwed up the vertical calculations which obviously should have matched in value. As you can notice in my old table (bottom table) I've boxed the values that should have been equal to one another and I've now corrected the calculations on the new table. I've also added data to the table itself so please give it a quick scan for other blunders I may have made. Sorry it took me two weeks to get to it and thanks again! It depends on how accurate you want it. You have some rounding errors. Looking at the "2000" data, which is really based on the day before 2001, it looks like you round up the number of shares purchased, but then in the cell below you use the fractional share. So you got 10869.something, which you used in the lower cell, but then rounded up to 10870 shares above. It should instead round down (fractional shares weren't a thing back then), and then use that whole number. That's just a minor thing. Actually, your feedback prompted me to revisit all the January and December closing prices and insure I chose the close price adjusted for splits but not for dividends for consistency sake. Consequently, many, if not most, of the percent and dollar figures changed. Also, this table was just put together to give approximate values so I'm not *that* concerned about minor variances. I did, however, take your advice and used the RoundDown Function in Numbers so the share quantities would not be fractional shares. I couldn't quite figure out what you did to get the average return, but you want annualized. I don't remember the excel equation anymore, but on Apple's calculator, you use the x^y equation, and the y root x equation. So in this case use the y root x, putting 360 (3.6M/10k) in for x, and 19 years in for y. You get 1.363, which means there has been an annualized return of 36.3% over the past 19 years. The cool thing for this is that you can put in fractional years, and you can look forward instead of back. So, for options or otherwise, if I want to see what AAPL would be in 1 2/3 years at a 20% annualized rate, I use x^y, with x at 1 + the percentage, so in this case 1.2. For y I put in years, so 1.66 years. That gives 1.35. Multiply it by the current price of AAPL, $331.50, and you get that if AAPL advances at an annualized rate of 20%, then in 1 2/3 years, the stock will be at $448.66. That's a gain of $117.16 per share. You can choose to add in the expected dividend or not. For 1,000 shares, that's a nice increase of $117,160, all from just an annualized rate of 20%. I calculated only the average return, not the geometric average or anything else described on a site like: How to Calculate Your Investment ReturnSo you add all the vertical percentages under "Gain/Loss For Year*" which apply to each year and divide by the number of years covered. For example: 1. For the year 2000, add the top 20 percentages and divide by 20. The result is 46% 2. For the year 2014, add the top 6 percentages and divide by 6. (13% +86% -7% +46% +10% -5%)/6 = 23.83 ~ 24% For completeness, I've been considering writing covered calls. A 20% annualized rate is pretty good, with the dividend and the option premium as nice little bonuses of maybe 3% annualized. But just for kicks, AAPL almost always feels a little undervalued, so I like to add in a one time 10% bonus, of the price that I would feel comfortable selling some shares at. So, using that same 1.66 years, I again get a multiple of 1.35. Adding in 10% makes it 1.45. From $331.50, that makes $480.67. The 1.66 years was from a couple weeks ago, looking at January 2022. So from then, and given my thought pattern, I would be willing to sell at $480 in Jan '22. And, the call would we worth around $10/share now. Anyways, the kids are always surprised to hear that I do math all day long, or at least for a bit when I'm trying to consider realistic expectations. It was good to hear that my 7th grader was doing a financial piece in social studies this week, that dealt with this a little, though the biggest part was separating a want from a need. He seemed to get it easily, and it was helpful to hear it from a non-parent. Excellent! I'm constantly trying to convince the two teenage grandsons who live close by that much of the knowledge they need to learn in High School will be useful for the rest of their lives.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 7, 2020 14:28:47 GMT -8
I first started this thread on 05/25/15, about a week after the 7th anniversary of my retirement on May 19, 2008. As I explained in my first post to this thread, my wife and I decided to invest exclusively in AAPL after losing about $100,000 as a result of the Tech Crash between 2000-2002. So with all the peaks and valleys of the AAPL share price over the last 5 years, AAPL seems to have a lot of forward momentum after establishing a new ATH by market close yesterday, 06/05/20. I’m not, however, convinced this country and the world is out-of-the-woods when it comes to the coronavirus pandemic, so I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a pullback in share price before the end of the year. That being said, when I compare the first chart I posted 5 years ago, with the chart updated as of market close yesterday, I’m astonished at what the AAPL share price has done and astonished that our investment in Apple Inc has increased about 146% in a little under 5 years. As I’ve mentioned several times on AFB postings, we invested in AAPL for over 12 years before the company restarted their dividend program in August of 2012. Despite the many complaints I’ve read on AFB and elsewhere about the *measly* dividend, my wife and I view it as an unexpected, unplanned for and very welcome surprise. In the slightly less than eight years since the program restarted, Apple has paid us $3,325,464.09 in dividends. The AAPL dividends in our trust accounts help pay our estimated taxes, travel, etc. and the AAPL dividends from our IRA are totally reinvested in buying new shares of AAPL. Those IRA AAPL dividends ($1,952,936.74) have purchased 15,692.1 shares at an average cost/share of $124.45 which means those new shares have, theoretically, appreciated ($331.50*15,692.1)= ($5,201,921.80-$1,952,936.74)=$3,248,985.06. Of course, since I’ve been making RMD payouts from my IRA’s for a number of years, many, if not all of my repurchased shares have been removed from *my* IRA’s to satisfy my RMD. If I were younger person, like most of the AFB members, we would have seen that full appreciation in our IRA’s. Fortunately, my wife's portion of those new shares and appreciation won't be subject to yearly RMD's for a little over 5 more years. I’m thankful every day for what AAPL has done for us, especially since I know next to nothing about market strategies, options, etc. It's not that I couldn't have tried to learn more about those things but, as an AAPL Long, I saw no reason to want to change the way we invest. I know other stocks have perhaps increased more than AAPL over the last 20 years, but it’s been the perfect stock for us since we use most of the products and we're very confident about Apple's management. In spite of the several large AAPL stock pullbacks over the long term, the fundamentals are what speaks to me and that’s where Apple is on solid ground, IMO. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!! 😊
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Ted
fire starter
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Post by Ted on Jun 7, 2020 16:10:31 GMT -8
... ... I’m thankful every day for what AAPL has done for us over the years, especially since I know next to nothing about market strategies, options, etc. It's not that I couldn't have tried to learn more about those things over the years, but, as an AAPL Long, I saw no reason over the years to want to change the way we invest. I know other stocks have done better than AAPL over the last 20 years but it’s been the perfect stock for us since we use most of the products and I’m very confident in Apple management. In spite of the AAPL stock pullbacks over the years, the fundamentals are what speaks to me and that’s where Apple is on solid ground, IMO. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!! 😊 That's a LOT of years, LuckyC! Just kidding. Nice post. I first bought Apple as a young man in 1998, just a few hundred shares, but, gosh, I wish I'd held onto those. I bought again in 2008 (and again & again) when I was wiser and have never looked back. PaulS turned me onto this board back in 2012 or so, and I'm so glad he did. Cheers to you for sharing your insights! 👍🏼
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 7, 2020 16:36:24 GMT -8
... ... I’m thankful every day for what AAPL has done for us over the years, especially since I know next to nothing about market strategies, options, etc. It's not that I couldn't have tried to learn more about those things over the years, but, as an AAPL Long, I saw no reason over the years to want to change the way we invest. I know other stocks have done better than AAPL over the last 20 years but it’s been the perfect stock for us since we use most of the products and I’m very confident in Apple management. In spite of the AAPL stock pullbacks over the years, the fundamentals are what speaks to me and that’s where Apple is on solid ground, IMO. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!! 😊 That's a LOT of years, LuckyC! Just kidding. Nice post. I first bought Apple as a young man in 1998, just a few hundred shares, but, gosh, I wish I'd held onto those. I bought again in 2008 (and again & again) when I was wiser and have never looked back. PaulS turned me onto this board back in 2012 or so, and I'm so glad he did. Cheers to you for sharing your insights! 👍🏼 Ted, honestly, I was in the process of eliminating some of those very excessive *years*, when I saw your post below mine and laughed. I was in my early-20's, 1963-64 time frame, and taking sailplane flying lessons, when my good-natured flight instructor, who had been a Marine pilot in Korea, told me one day, "You know, Ron, even a smart ass doesn't like a smart ass." Now why on earth he would say that to me, I have no idea. 😂 One of my father's expressions was, "Too soon old, too late smart" and you obviously became smart enough, in only a few years, to reconsider your earlier decision and get back into AAPL. I'm sure you're very happy you did and I'm glad that PaulS pointed you to AFB. 😊 By the way, when you were "...a young man in 1998", I was 56, so I'm envious that you smartened up so early in life. Good for you!
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 8, 2020 7:11:10 GMT -8
I couldn't quite figure out what you did to get the average return, but you want annualized. I don't remember the excel equation anymore, but on Apple's calculator, you use the x^y equation, and the y root x equation. So in this case use the y root x, putting 360 (3.6M/10k) in for x, and 19 years in for y. You get 1.363, which means there has been an annualized return of 36.3% over the past 19 years. The cool thing for this is that you can put in fractional years, and you can look forward instead of back. So, for options or otherwise, if I want to see what AAPL would be in 1 2/3 years at a 20% annualized rate, I use x^y, with x at 1 + the percentage, so in this case 1.2. For y I put in years, so 1.66 years. That gives 1.35. Multiply it by the current price of AAPL, $331.50, and you get that if AAPL advances at an annualized rate of 20%, then in 1 2/3 years, the stock will be at $448.66. That's a gain of $117.16 per share. You can choose to add in the expected dividend or not. For 1,000 shares, that's a nice increase of $117,160, all from just an annualized rate of 20%. I calculated only the average return, not the geometric average or anything else described on a site like: How to Calculate Your Investment ReturnSo you add all the vertical percentages under "Gain/Loss For Year*" which apply to each year and divide by the number of years covered. For example: 1. For the year 2000, add the top 20 percentages and divide by 20. The result is 46% 2. For the year 2014, add the top 6 percentages and divide by 6. (13% +86% -7% +46% +10% -5%)/6 = 23.83 ~ 24% Hmmmmm That kinda sorta almost works for small compounding numbers, but it gets messed up in larger areas, like here where you are compounding it over 19 years. I think the negative values also muck with it. A 50% loss drops $100 to $50. A 50% gain from there only brings the account to $75, still a net loss of 25% over 2 years, or an annualized loss of 13.4%. Your method would instead give a net gain (or loss) of 0%. Depending on who you are giving it to, small errors might not matter much. But your calculation of 46% per year is a lot different than the 36.3% annualized rate that I came up with. FWIW, that 46% per year would turn $10k into $13.2M over 19 years, instead of the $3.1M your worksheet has. I'd take that in my favor any day.
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Post by cathysan on Jun 8, 2020 10:49:19 GMT -8
LuckyC, I want to start investing in APPL at age 47, today the APPL price is at ATH. How do you recommend starting to invest in APPL? Thanks.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 13, 2020 13:16:16 GMT -8
LuckyC, I want to start investing in AAPL at age 47, today the AAPL price is at ATH. How do you recommend starting to invest in AAPL? Thanks. Hi cathysan! Sorry it took me so long to respond to your question. If you’ve read much of anything I’ve posted on AFB about how my wife and I first came to invest in AAPL, you’ll understand why I chose my AFB username_its because we made a few lucky choices. The most important of those, of course, was choosing AAPL as our sole investment stock. I'm impressed that, at 47, you’re getting serious about your financial investments. Good for you! I was about 58 years old, in the 2000 time frame when we fully committed to our investment in AAPL, so you’re *way* ahead of me. In fact, when I was in my 40's, my father scolded me one day for working at a company with no retirement plan. I was surprised at his comment because I was thinking, "I'm only in my 40's, why should I be thinking about retirement"? What a maroon. Since I readily acknowledge that luck played a significant part in our investing, I may not be able to really help answer your question, but you need to know the answer to this: Are you considering investing in AAPL for a short term return or for the long term? If it’s short term investment returns you’re after, I’d recommend asking your questions in the daily or weekend threads because I know there are a number of very helpful AFB members who could give you some valuable insight and advice about that. On the other hand, if you’re interested in investing in AAPL for the long term, I can only rely what’s worked very well for us and use that as a basis for my comments. 1. First of all, I learned very early on that I could never correctly anticipate the direction of the share price very accurately, consequently, we bought shares whenever we’d saved enough money to purchase a few shares without real regard to whether the share price was headed up or down. Not the smartest way to do it, I’m sure, but we were focused on accumulating shares while we were both working, and since I was in my late 50’s, time was of the essence. Even though we first bought AAPL shares in the 90’s, the oldest record we still have is a purchase we made on 12/22/00 of 3,395 AAPL shares with a cost basis of $3,316.24 and a value, as of market close on 06/12/20 of $1,150,226.00, split adjusted. But the important thing to keep in mind is that there have been many surges and pullbacks of the AAPL share price over that 20 years and it’s important to keep thinking long term. When there's a severe pullback in AAPL share price, don't panic as long as you have confidence in Apple's fundamentals. 2. If you own your own home, I’d recommend you try to pay off your mortgage while you’re still working. My wife paid an extra payment to principal whenever we could scrimp the money to do so and by the time she retired in 2011, our mortgage was paid off. 3. Realize that even with a wonderful stock like AAPL, there’ll be share price pullbacks as well as times like this when the share price increases without a real driver. Well, actually, the driver in this case may be that for the first time in many years, my wife and I didn’t reinvest our AAPL dividends in our IRA’s because I was fairly certain the stock market was going to see many down days before our economy got back to normal. Note that this is further proof of my comment in #1: I typically have no clue as to the future direction of the share price. So, look at the chart below. I suppose over the last five years, some folks were able to stay in cash at the red peaks and only buy at the green bottoms, but that's way beyond my ability and I knew it. That's why we bought when we could afford to buy shares without much regard to share price direction. Truthfully, I don't even remember those times when we may have bought at the "wrong" time because, eventually, the share price rose enough that I was happy we bought when we did instead of holding off, waiting for a lower price. Many times, folks that wait for a lower price end up not owning any AAPL shares at all. 4. As a further comment about when to invest, I personally have believed that recent surge in AAPL and the market in general is discounting the continuing coronavirus pandemic. The last two market days may be just a prelude to a further drop so, were I you, I’d sit tight for at least a few more months until I see significant progress in controlling the coronavirus. But again, remember what I said in #1…I’m not real strong when it comes to being right about the AAPL share price direction, so who knows? I hope I've helped you think through a few things to consider but be sure to take advantage of the investing knowledge of the AFB members since many are much more knowledgeable about investing than I am. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 14, 2020 7:25:09 GMT -8
Lucky's post does a good job of covering his experience with AAPL over the years. I want to add a couple things.
Apple and AAPL is a much different company than it was 15-25 years ago when some of us first invested in AAPL. I feel it's a solid investment these days, but it is much more stable than in the distant past, and will also have a much harder time doubling, even with Apple buying back around 6% of the shares per year.
If you feel you want to invest partly for the short term, one way to do it is to play with just a portion. Lucky's chart shows that AAPL has moved around a lot. If you really think you can capture some of those 10-15% movements, while not missing out on the big changes, do it with a portion. Staying 80 or 90% invested, and just use that extra for shorter term attempts. I think it's tough and don't try to do it, except for some of the mega-drops we see every year or two, whether it's the like of the Flash Crash, or the Corona Virus overcorrection. Getting 20-50% of a 20-50% dip is a lot easier.
Don't worry about trying to buy at the very best price. One way to minimize this worry is to split up your order. Instead of trying to buy with $40k all at once, maybe do $20k today and $20k in a week, or 10/10/10/10. Over time the market has averaged up and so being in is a good thing, but if there's a holdup in getting in due to worries of timing, splitting up the order can help.
Personally I have found the books by Ken Fisher to be insightful, and Fisher Investment's goals of trying to beat the market by just a little bit (instead of attempting to double the market, but sometimes failing gloriously). But we all have different preferences on investing, and those can change over time due to many reasons.
Good luck
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 2, 2020 11:10:05 GMT -8
So… Ted, mark, chinacat, crispin, 4aapl, silkstone and flyonthewall…a mistake was made. 😂 By modifying our IRA’s last May to *not* do our standard auto-reinvest of our quarterly AAPL IRA dividends, I guessed that my wife and I may end up with 11% fewer shares if the share price went up as high as $350 instead of dropping as I anticipated because of the global pandemic. My spidey sense of the market continues to suck, however, because I failed to consider that, regardless of the pandemic, the share price *might* go zooming all the way up to $425.04, as of COB on 07/31/20, and we would only be able to purchase -38% fewer shares than if we had just auto-reinvested the dividends back in May. And let’s not even consider the additional $9,563.69 we would have received due to the share price increase just from *holding* those additional shares for a mere 2 1/2 months. What’s done is done, however…and, since we started seriously investing in AAPL in 2000 with no thought of *ever* collecting quarterly dividends, I can hardly complain about losing out because the AAPL share price climbed almost $120 in about 2 1/2 months. Of course, to be fair, no AAPL Long in their right mind could reasonably consider that amazing share price increase “losing out”. So, looking at my chart showing the yearly value of our AAPL stock on the anniversary of my retirement date of 05/19/08, I’m struck by the fact that, although the yearly percentage increase for 2020 was a very strong 66% increase over 2019, the 36% percent increase over just the last 2 1/2 months, 05/19/20 to 07/31/20, gave a *dollar* increase which was only about 10% less than the dollar increase over the entire year period between 05/19/19 and 05/19/20. Incredible. I know it's just math...but still, incredible. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 2, 2020 11:40:31 GMT -8
There you go, trying to time the market again For me, I've realized it's really hard to time both a drop and a rise. Instead, if I just focus on one side of it, and don't care about the absolute bottom or top, I can do ok. For AAPL or the market, that means being able to feel that a overcorrection on the low side, and then a 20% recovery of the total drop, was the bottom. That doesn't mean it's the very bottom or the last bottom, but on a strong company like Apple, or even a big index, that has worked out ok. We're slowly getting into your shoes, of having more than we need and more than I think we would want to pass along to our family, maybe not at this point for us but when compounding into the future. Sure, we have friends and people in town with much more, so whether that's a "ohhh, a wakeboard boat (EDIT) looks fun ($150k)", or "wow, the fastest personal prop plane, that flight time is amazing (clueless, but add in flight instruction as an expensive hobby)", that still would only put a dent in things. At the same time, there's always someone who has more, and always some things you can't (really) afford, nor really want to. Instead of attempting to find ways to spend the excess influx, I suggest for your penance of doubting the speed of AAPL's rebound, you make a large donation to one or more organizations that you enjoy or value. While my list is the NV Food Bank for their amazing value of claiming 3 meals per $1, and the Tahoe Rim Trail Association (Crew Leader) and Tahoe Area Mountain Bike Association (Crew Leader and Board member) for the great multiuse trails that they build and maintain, we each have our own local groups that help support things we see or use. On that front, look at a Charitable Donor Advised Fund. I need to talk with Schwab about it, since I don't think TD, even with their merger/buyout, has them yet. In general, they seem like a good way make donations, while also giving you a little extra tax incentive. And in CA, that's especially important.
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