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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 17, 2012 8:27:06 GMT -8
All Things D came out with how either of the candidates in last night's debate should have answered the question about iPads being assembled in China. Non-partisan in my opinion. Either candidate could have given this answer.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 17, 2012 9:06:44 GMT -8
I can not access the forum from my iPhone. It says administrative something.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Oct 17, 2012 9:10:34 GMT -8
vodoo witchcraft analysis sponge? IMO your only right if the market tanks as a whole (fiscal cliff, possible election ramifications and upcoming tax increases). The pattern with apple has been constantly changing. Just like the normal pre earnings run ups pattern isn't consistent I doubt the FEB-Apri run will be the same as last year.
If AAPL is below 700 close to Jan earnings i may be selling off real estate to buy.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 17, 2012 9:23:34 GMT -8
If AAPL does poke above it at the open, expect it to get sold hard. Lots of folk will be looking to cash out of the 650s. I'm with the yellow bellied warbler on this one. We poke above 650, we get sold until that call wall is sold or rolled. It will take a while.... Ensign, perhaps you can explain how this works. There are currently a number of calls at 650, 32.2K according to Nick Nansen's site. Is it necessary for the equivalent number of shares of stock (i.e., 3.22MM) be purchased first, to allow for these calls to be "closed out" (whatever that means), before the stock can successfully pass beyond 650? Thanks in advance.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 17, 2012 9:25:44 GMT -8
There is a lot of volume around the 650's today, as expected by most. I for one will not say we have topped for the week. Next Thursday will be a nervous time because nobody knows which way WS will take us. Heck, is Tuesday a sell the news event? It is a no rainier that if Apple disappoints the stock is going to suffer. I don' t have a lot of faith in this earnings report, let's hope Apple guides to a great Q1.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 17, 2012 9:58:48 GMT -8
Back in October 2008, I remember there was an event invitation that went out (can't remember what for, maybe MacBook Air), and AAPL sold off when the invitation came out. If memory serves, it continued to sell off pretty much up to the day of the event, when there was a big pop, which then got sold again.
While I am not saying that things will play out like this, it is foolhardy to assume that every event is preceded by a ramp in price, especially when those holding lots of AAPL are looking to lighten up, for whatever reason.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 17, 2012 10:09:24 GMT -8
Back in October 2008, I remember there was an event invitation that went out (can't remember what for, maybe MacBook Air), and AAPL sold off when the invitation came out. If memory serves, it continued to sell off pretty much up to the day of the event, when there was a big pop, which then got sold again. While I am not saying that things will play out like this, it is foolhardy to assume that every event is preceded by a ramp in price, especially when those holding lots of AAPL are looking to lighten up, for whatever reason. The stock action leading up to events and earnings are analogous to a catcher in a baseball game changing signs (especially when there is a runner on second), because the opposition eventually figures them out. Whatever the pattern was in 2008 is probably not what it is now. And I think we saw a major change in the earnings run-up dynamics in April, when the hedgies cashed out early (starting April 10); as well as in event run-ups, like the IPhone 5 in September, when the hedgies again decided to cash out early.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 17, 2012 10:11:17 GMT -8
the pros and their HFTs will quickly survey the landscape and if there is not follow through on the elephants part, they will quickly regain their control and pin Apple stock under these large concentration of open calls. Where are the calls concentrated? Right here: 630 22.6 K contracts 650 24.9 K 660 24.9 K 670 28.1 K 680 26.2 K 700 39.4 K 750 42.1 K They would like to wipe these out and make them worthless. If they can, they will. That’s their motto. I expect there to be heavy resistance at each one of these levels. Why does he not mention the puts that are open? Currently, the open interest of puts in the 635-645 range is nearly the same as the open interest of calls in that range. There's a few more calls than puts down at 630, and more than double the number of calls than puts at 650. With the calls and puts canceling each other out, the only real emphasis is to keep the stock below 650. That doesn't mean it will happen, but it's looking to hold for now. Though trotting down to this 645 level lets "them" close out 650 calls for less or write 645 or 650 puts for more profit, thus shrinking that bump at 650. Personally, I'd like to see a close above 645 today, and I'm starting to think more about what purchases to make Friday. I might kick around a small amount of weeklies, but I'm mostly interested in things out a bit, likely with either Feb or April being the closest one I would buy much of.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 17, 2012 10:20:50 GMT -8
And I think we saw a major change in the earnings run-up dynamics in April, when the hedgies cashed out early (starting April 10); as well as in event run-ups, like the IPhone 5 in September, when the hedgies again decided to cash out early. But both of these patterns have been seen before too. In April 2000, AAPL had it's peak. I want to say it was 141.8, but Yahoo says it was March 23rd at 150.38. As for product announcements, anyone watching the stock run compared to MWSF could see the peak with it's slow migration forward each year. At one point the peak was right about when the keynote started, Tuesday at 10am. But a few years later, it was pushed back to the Thursday before. Patterns in the market sometimes are good guidance, but they change over time as more people catch on to them or try to anticipate them. But they also repeat over the longer term.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 17, 2012 10:25:18 GMT -8
Whatever the pattern was in 2008 is probably not what it is now. Or perhaps we have come back around to that after 4 years of events that are preceded by a run-up. I see lots of similarities now as there was then. It's October, post-Olympics, pre-election, strained financial institutions staring at the prospect of defaults on commercial or government paper etc.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 11:24:41 GMT -8
Is that...support at 644 I see? Interesting...
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 17, 2012 12:03:42 GMT -8
That wasn't a very pretty close.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 12:11:43 GMT -8
Nope, it sucked.
Interestingly, 644 is holding. So it's turning into support again. For the moment.
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Post by blofeld on Oct 17, 2012 12:25:36 GMT -8
Only been lurking until now... what a wonderful resource this board is! I think I am missing the wisdom of Gregg Thurman these days.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 12:37:37 GMT -8
My current plan (obviously, just mine, DYODDâ„¢, etc.) is to stay cautious from here straight through next Thursday (earnings). Hope I'll stay disciplined enough to kind of mostly follow it. (Must...remember... Red October...) Still watching the technicals here and there, but sentiment and fundamentals reign next week. I fully expect Apple event "disappointment" (prepared to be wrong on this, also prepared to maybe buy a new iMac), and from there, we'll see if expectations are low enough for earnings. May try a side bet because I'm an idiot, but right now the lack of momentum means I'll be staying at around 2/3 cash. The overall market is looking more range/channel-bound than toppy, so I'll keep looking for tactical trade opportunities.
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Post by lance on Oct 17, 2012 13:00:21 GMT -8
Just got my new iphone 5 yesterday in the mail, ordered on the pre launch date took a few weeks to come in, I am looking for a new stock/chart app for the iphone 5? I have make trading app but I want good chart and realtime ticker app.
Any suggestions for what I should buy, I am looking for something with charts/realtime data and basic ta stuff ie bb bands, moving averages, rsi and stuff.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 17, 2012 13:19:26 GMT -8
Only been lurking until now... what a wonderful resource this board is! I think I am missing the wisdom of Gregg Thurman these days. Welcome blofeld. Gregg is near, but is busy with a new business. (is that redundant ?)
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Post by chasmac on Oct 17, 2012 13:48:58 GMT -8
Mav (and others), Any quesses on GM for this quarter? That's the one that's really got me scratching my head after the big Q3 dip. OT: thought this was pretty inspiring. Amazing what we can accomplish when we all work together. Space Shuttle's trek through LA
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Post by chasmac on Oct 17, 2012 13:58:46 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 13:59:01 GMT -8
We gotta get discussing on the earnings thread! There's only about a week to go! My mental blender analysis puts GM at 42%, which could well be high. But surveying the landscape, the only product that could really impact GM is iPhone 5 - since all the other products are no longer "as" new (particularly iPhone 4S), I didn't see margin mix being affected unless there's millions more iPads sold and millions less iPhones sold. Forex, whatever - it doesn't seem to be a big deal most quarters. So what about iPhone 5 GM? New casing, some redesigned components, A6 chip probably costs a few bucks more, battery mostly the same, camera probably costs about the same, no change in flash capacities (a plus for margins)...R&D expenses are OpEx, not GM-related... GM will likely start out lower, but 500, 1000 basis points lower? Not seeing it. Finally, the prior-year compare. GM was 40.2% on pretty slow iPhone unit growth. I'm not seeing a convincing case for a year-to-year decline. Right now I have it at a 80 basis point drop sequentially. Prove me wrong, Oppenheimer.
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Post by machouse on Oct 17, 2012 14:04:40 GMT -8
Mav (and others), Any quesses on GM for this quarter? That's the one that's really got me scratching my head after the big Q3 dip. OT: thought this was pretty inspiring. Amazing what we can accomplish when we all work together. Space Shuttle's trek through LAa little higher 43.5 or 44. Last quarter iphone was a smaller % of overall sales. Ipad has a lower gross margin. That is why last Q dropped. This quarter should be helped by Iphone 5 (about 1/3 of total iPhone). New releases always increase ASP. But I assume a slight increase in macs, iPhone, and ipad from last Q, therefore gross sales should be higher. Though lately I've begun to worry ipad may be flat or down. But those are the questions you want answered to have an educated guess on GM.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 17, 2012 14:07:37 GMT -8
Has anyone ever heard of that medical condition where kids can't feel pain? They go through life bonking their heads and breaking bones and never feel a thing, so they never learn to be careful, always jumping off of roofs and touching sharp objects. That must be something, not having the ability to learn from bonking one's head.
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Post by macziggy on Oct 17, 2012 14:08:02 GMT -8
Mav (and others), Any quesses on GM for this quarter? That's the one that's really got me scratching my head after the big Q3 dip. OT: thought this was pretty inspiring. Amazing what we can accomplish when we all work together. Space Shuttle's trek through LAAlmost the entire photo staff of The Los Angeles Times photographed the shuttle's move from every angle. The photographer who usually covers the USC football team couldn't go to their game in Washington last weekend because he too was on shuttle duty. A certain Pulitzer Prize entry. framework.latimes.com/2012/10/12/space-shuttle-endeavour-2/#/0Note: lots of iPhones in these photos!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 14:12:20 GMT -8
Why would iPad sales be down? Any drop in iPad sales would be...uh...not a good thing.
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Post by hellojapan on Oct 17, 2012 14:21:39 GMT -8
Couldn't iPad sales be impacted by anticipation of the iPad Mini? Just as iPhone 4S sales were impacted by anticipation of the iPhone 5 last quarter.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 17, 2012 14:22:59 GMT -8
Why would iPad sales be down? Any drop in iPad sales would be...uh...not a good thing. I am pretty sure he is talking about mix.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 14:26:22 GMT -8
Maybe a little, hellojapan. But iPad mini anticipation sure wasn't reflected in the share price until, well, yesterday.
Oppenheimer or Cook should mention iPad mini anticipation if they really did see it as a factor next Thursday. They'd kind of _have_ to - iPad is still early enough in its life for a sequential drop in sales outside of a transition quarter to be seen as very unusual, IMHO.
I don't think Dalrymple's "oh that Gruber sure is a smart fellow" remark in late August (which we might have picked up on here, but not most of everyone else) or a few iPad mini reports here or there before close of fiscal Q4 did much to pause iPad sales.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 17, 2012 14:41:26 GMT -8
Couldn't iPad sales be impacted by anticipation of the iPad Mini? Just as iPhone 4S sales were impacted by anticipation of the iPhone 5 last quarter. Yeah, I'll subtract a couple hundred units from my estimate for this. Seriously, I don't see any material impact.
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Post by machouse on Oct 17, 2012 14:45:04 GMT -8
Why would iPad sales be down? Any drop in iPad sales would be...uh...not a good thing. Q4 2011 Apple added 20 countries to bring total to 90. Q3 2012 Ipad is already sold in 97 countries. Faster rollout this year might make Q to Q look worse this year compared to last. I believe only china will be the only added country in Q4 to make any difference. Also channel inventory. Q4 2011 1.5 million added Q3 2012 already balanced therefore Q4 wont benifit from channel fill. Any other input to help forecast is appreciated. -Tom
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 17, 2012 15:07:28 GMT -8
I find it impossible to believe that iPad 3 sales will be materially impacted by iPad Mini ---> in a holiday quarter. If it is, it only means that there's more supply to shift around to areas that want it.
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