chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jul 17, 2015 19:45:07 GMT -8
Well, well, well...here we are again, my friends...weekend before earnings. The last minute revisions of prior predictions have begun rolling in. Good chance that Apple still blows all but the most wildly optimistic ones out of the water. Meanwhile, followers of AAPL clutch at the highest weekly closing since May 29 as a sign that the market's reaction may not be as bewildering as we have come to expect.
These pre-earnings weekends always seem long. We have a pleasant summer forecast here for the next couple of days, so time to clear out the mind and kick back a bit. The last snow pile from last winter just melted this week, so it's definitely time to enjoy some summer.
Step right up to the bar! What's your pleasure?
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Post by sponge on Jul 17, 2015 20:37:20 GMT -8
Perrier with vodka I bought in Moscow and vermuth on the rocks. It is my own made up drink? I am feeling very good about next week. Anything over 135 will set us up for a great mid summer run. I think my 1.95 estimate will end up being too low.
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Post by payrolldude on Jul 17, 2015 21:54:41 GMT -8
In case of emergency: my blood type is IPA.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 18, 2015 5:12:11 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 18, 2015 6:25:32 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 18, 2015 6:26:17 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2015 7:34:42 GMT -8
Did you intend for my head to explode twice? I'm at $1.95 now, due to a recalibration of ASPs, following surveys of Apple retail staff and the wide availability of Sport and limited availability of stainless models, which I believe is demand-driven. WS does a terrible job of adjusting trailing EPS with a company that is buying back its stock. Here's a revised EPS based on my estimate of shares O/S at the end of June 2015, along with PPS amounts IF WS assigned AAPL P/Es worthy of Apple, Inc.s past performance and prospects.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jul 18, 2015 7:48:59 GMT -8
Has there ever been a long period of sideways consolidation in AAPL followed by a drop?
In my admittedly spotty 15-year memory of owning AAPL, it seems as though long sideways consolidations have always eventually been rewarded with another leg up.
Drops in AAPL, on the other hand, come after strong upward moves.
Of course, future stock action doesn't need to be the same as past stock action.
But if AAPL does follow the previous patterns, we will have another leg up. Earnings seems like the best catalyst for this. And if earnings doesn't lead to another leg up right away, we will have more sideways followed by a leg up.
By the way, on March 9 on this board, I predicted we would go sideways until July earnings in the 120-130 range. Mostly because of Watch FUD leading to doubts about apple first new product category post-Steve. Might have been my most successful prediction ever! Let's hope the second half of the prediction, that July earnings would lead us up out of the range, also comes true.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2015 7:57:01 GMT -8
I remember your prediction and yes, it proved prescient. Watch FUD is on the menu Tuesday AH. If I were Tim, in response to analyst questions, I'd claim Watch had 4M more units sold than Google Glass.
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Post by sponge on Jul 18, 2015 8:22:28 GMT -8
Did you intend for my head to explode twice? I'm at $1.95 now, due to a recalibration of ASPs, following surveys of Apple retail staff and the wide availability of Sport and limited availability of stainless models, which I believe is demand-driven. WS does a terrible job of adjusting trailing EPS with a company that is buying back its stock. Here's a revised EPS based on my estimate of shares O/S at the end of June 2015, along with PPS amounts IF WS assigned AAPL P/Es worthy of Apple, Inc.s past performance and prospects. Best case scenario is we hit 17 p/e before Oct, 18 before Jan, and 19 before April. Plug in some nice 30-45% eps growth and we pass up 1 trillion before Dec and keep moving up into April. A p/e of 19 can only happen if we get some serious market share gains in smart phones. I think the 6S will do the trick in the second half of 2016. Apple Watch sales will drive WS crazy for the next 4 years. First will be questions of why won't Apple give us specifics and then can this hit new product really grow this fast for this long. The other category needs some serious growth from iPods, Beats Headphones, Apple TV, and extra bands to really confuse WS.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2015 8:35:59 GMT -8
Apple will break out Watch sales if it grows to what we hope it will, possibly as early as December quarter. For segment reporting, I believe the threshold is 10% of total product sales.
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Post by sponge on Jul 18, 2015 9:02:39 GMT -8
Apple will break out Watch sales if it grows to what we hope it will, possibly as early as December quarter. For segment reporting, I believe the threshold is 10% of total product sales. So if we report $85 billion in Dec quarter Apple watch needs to be $8.5 billion? That is a tall order. I see them reporting numbers with version #2 in April or May of 2016 following the release. It would be part of quarterly report in July 2016. This way no one can compare to prior year sales and determine of how well it is really growing other then overall sales.
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Post by rickag on Jul 18, 2015 10:14:33 GMT -8
Did you intend for my head to explode twice? I'm at $1.95 now, due to a recalibration of ASPs, following surveys of Apple retail staff and the wide availability of Sport and limited availability of stainless models, which I believe is demand-driven. WS does a terrible job of adjusting trailing EPS with a company that is buying back its stock. Here's a revised EPS based on my estimate of shares O/S at the end of June 2015, along with PPS amounts IF WS assigned AAPL P/Es worthy of Apple, Inc.s past performance and prospects. 8.92 beats my guesstamet by $0.30. I vote for your estimate to be all seeing.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 18, 2015 10:53:16 GMT -8
So Mercel and the Sponge have the same EPS number. If $1.95 hits on Tuesday, which one buys the drinks?
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Post by sponge on Jul 18, 2015 11:00:15 GMT -8
So Mercel and the Sponge have the same EPS number. If $1.95 hits on Tuesday, which one buys the drinks? I am not buying any drinks until Apple gets the p/e that it deserves. I want to see a p/e of 25. No idea when that will happen, but I am patient. In the mean time I will be watching my portfolio go up nice and slowly. Looking forward to the Apple Car in 2022.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2015 12:11:29 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2015 12:13:49 GMT -8
Apple will break out Watch sales if it grows to what we hope it will, possibly as early as December quarter. For segment reporting, I believe the threshold is 10% of total product sales. I bet it won't. I think Apple wants the competition to live in as much FUD as possible. And yet Apple purposely allows for us to still get SOME decent amount of intel as to Watch revenue, maybe even for a quarter or two more.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2015 14:33:59 GMT -8
Apple will break out Watch sales if it grows to what we hope it will, possibly as early as December quarter. For segment reporting, I believe the threshold is 10% of total product sales. I bet it won't. I think Apple wants the competition to live in as much FUD as possible. And yet Apple purposely allows for us to still get SOME decent amount of intel as to Watch revenue, maybe even for a quarter or two more. The timing is a WAG, but Apple won't have choice with FS disclosure if and when it meets the criteria.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2015 14:37:06 GMT -8
So Mercel and the Sponge have the same EPS number. If $1.95 hits on Tuesday, which one buys the drinks? Well, Sponge can buy because he achieved more with his model, built on 20M iPhones, 40M iPad minis and 30 Macs, or something...
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jul 18, 2015 14:45:07 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2015 14:52:53 GMT -8
I bet it won't. I think Apple wants the competition to live in as much FUD as possible. And yet Apple purposely allows for us to still get SOME decent amount of intel as to Watch revenue, maybe even for a quarter or two more. The timing is a WAG, but Apple won't have choice with FS disclosure if and when it meets the criteria. Wait really? So there's an actual FASB or whatever rule or guideline out there about unit sales?
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jul 18, 2015 15:22:24 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jul 18, 2015 16:03:37 GMT -8
Sounds like the jury is still out. I want to be wowed ... but I guess we're still in the early innings.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2015 16:54:43 GMT -8
The timing is a WAG, but Apple won't have choice with FS disclosure if and when it meets the criteria. Wait really? So there's an actual FASB or whatever rule or guideline out there about unit sales? Yep. I'll defer to those with more time to learn how U.S. GAAP overlays with International Financial Reporting Standards, as there is an effort to minimize the differences. Without doing more research, I suspect Apple already discloses iPhones, iPad and Macs because they had to, not because they have a special love for sharing this proprietary data with competitors like Samsuck.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2015 18:52:26 GMT -8
Hmm. Well, we'll see if Apple gets there, eh? Also, surely you have units and ASP assumptions for those earnings numbers of yours, right?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 18, 2015 18:57:06 GMT -8
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Post by firestorm on Jul 18, 2015 19:11:23 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 18, 2015 22:42:44 GMT -8
Wait really? So there's an actual FASB or whatever rule or guideline out there about unit sales? Yep. I'll defer to those with more time to learn how U.S. GAAP overlays with International Financial Reporting Standards, as there is an effort to minimize the differences. Without doing more research, I suspect Apple already discloses iPhones, iPad and Macs because they had to, not because they have a special love for sharing this proprietary data with competitors like Samsuck.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2015 7:30:12 GMT -8
Here's a screenshot straight from SFAS 14: More reading: www.sec.gov/rules/final/33-7620.txtApple has some discretion with reporting detail of certain products and can even document disagreement with auditors on the presentation, as they do in its Form 10K. See below for Apple's last segment presentation by product. I don't believe Apple can keep lying in the weeds with Watch if it claims 10% of sales. In fact, Tim has already conceded they may do something different with Watch reporting in the future.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2015 7:32:34 GMT -8
Hmm. Well, we'll see if Apple gets there, eh? Also, surely you have units and ASP assumptions for those earnings numbers of yours, right? Yes, I do. Check the treehouse.
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