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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Aug 21, 2015 16:01:35 GMT -8
I am already trying to see if I can down three boilermakers without puking....because I don't want to be like AAPL and the rest of the market.
Seriously, is this not the buying opportunity of a decade for those with a horizon beyond six months?
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Post by phoebear611 on Aug 21, 2015 16:37:18 GMT -8
Seriously - you are spot on. Hubby and I are beginning to put a list together but of course we start with A ...because A is for APPL and that's where I'm planning on starting to buy. Gonna do some homework this weekend first. To be clear. There will be some panic over the weekend as retail folk call their managers and want to redeem - idiots to do so at this point. So you may see some more weakness but RED is correct. Everyone needs to do what they feel comfortable doing. I'm just telling you what I plan on doing.
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Post by macwire on Aug 21, 2015 17:01:14 GMT -8
Never again buying just because it's falling. Never ever again.
Ever.
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coma
Member
Posts: 522
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Post by coma on Aug 21, 2015 17:22:47 GMT -8
My father in law is chomping at the bit to buy more AAPL for his estate and he's looking to me for guidance. I'll have to evaluate the situation this weekend as to whether or not he should pull the trigger.
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 21, 2015 18:37:25 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Aug 22, 2015 2:04:39 GMT -8
And his wife has no comment?
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Post by mace on Aug 22, 2015 2:05:28 GMT -8
Never again buying just because it's falling. Never ever again. Ever. How low before wave iv is invalidated? What is your wave ii's price zone?
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Post by rob_london on Aug 22, 2015 2:51:54 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Aug 22, 2015 5:01:45 GMT -8
In my excitement over the action last week, I forgot to mention that I am unable to start the thread Monday through Wednesday next week. would someone please do the honors?
I am also looking at ways to take advantage of the sale...
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 22, 2015 7:00:01 GMT -8
TIM COOK remains laser focused on , Civil rights, diversity, PRES. Carter, GOOGLE exec., but not AAPL:
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Post by deasys on Aug 22, 2015 9:00:31 GMT -8
TIM COOK remains laser focused on , Civil rights, diversity, PRES. Carter, GOOGLE exec., but not AAPL: I don't think Cook would use his twitter account to either reveal corporate secrets or as an advertising vehicle for Apple.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 22, 2015 10:26:47 GMT -8
TIM COOK remains laser focused on , Civil rights, diversity, PRES. Carter, GOOGLE exec., but not AAPL: I don't think Cook would use his twitter account to either reveal corporate secrets or as an advertising vehicle for Apple. Well, if Cook has time for all of that horseshit, he has time to go on CNBC and shoot down all the FUD that is killing the stock. Just a *word* about the China slowdown meme would be nice. But I guess Apple's true strength will be in how many X chromosomes & how much melanin are in new hires.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Aug 22, 2015 10:39:04 GMT -8
But I guess Apple's true strength will be in how many X chromosomes & how much melanin are in new hires. I could not agree more! Overlooking well qualified candidates, whether consciously or unconsciously, because of the those irrelevant characteristics would certainly deprive Apple of many valuable hires. :)
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Post by nagrani on Aug 22, 2015 10:51:34 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 22, 2015 12:21:49 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Aug 22, 2015 12:24:01 GMT -8
Seriously - you are spot on. Hubby and I are beginning to put a list together but of course we start with A ...because A is for APPL and that's where I'm planning on starting to buy. Gonna do some homework this weekend first. To be clear. There will be some panic over the weekend as retail folk call their managers and want to redeem - idiots to do so at this point. So you may see some more weakness but RED is correct. Everyone needs to do what they feel comfortable doing. I'm just telling you what I plan on doing. Are there any Elliotticians think AAPL is in wave two of Primary or Cycle degree? This is a possible count in my mind since AAPL since 130+.
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Post by mace on Aug 22, 2015 12:41:54 GMT -8
Your lower degree wave four is $105-$118 (adjusted for dividends). Why not between $95-$102 (dividend adjusted)? Btw, I have the same preferred count (including the lower degree count of wave 3) as yours. 38.2% retracement = $108.5 (passed) 50.0% retracement = $100.8 (rare) - best scenario is Monday open down to here, reverse to form a bullish dragonfly, a follow through day on Tuesday. 61.8% retracement = $93.0 (max for wave four, so rare that it won't happen unless something catastrophic like the financial crisis)
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Post by nagrani on Aug 22, 2015 12:45:02 GMT -8
Not my count. Got it from this guy. All I can say is the end of this drop should be near (IMO) www.61point8.com/
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Post by phoebear611 on Aug 22, 2015 16:04:53 GMT -8
Seriously - you are spot on. Hubby and I are beginning to put a list together but of course we start with A ...because A is for APPL and that's where I'm planning on starting to buy. Gonna do some homework this weekend first. To be clear. There will be some panic over the weekend as retail folk call their managers and want to redeem - idiots to do so at this point. So you may see some more weakness but RED is correct. Everyone needs to do what they feel comfortable doing. I'm just telling you what I plan on doing. Are there any Elliotticians think AAPL is in wave two of Primary or Cycle degree? This is a possible count in my mind since AAPL since 130+. Not that I have seen (wrt Primary or Cycle degree) but here are four views from different people: --- AAPL could keep correcting, and we might see the $105 or even as low as $102 level. In a 2 day chart wave (ii) was very shallow this opens the door for a deep wave (iv), in a replay of the higher degree wave [4] correction from Sept. 2012 to Apr. 2013.
--- Still plan to see AAPL at 105-103 as well
--- I can see a set up down to 99.20 if we pass 105
--- AAPL breaking below 113 placed odds in favor of the red OML (One More Low) count, which is what has played out. 106/105 remains key support for wave (4) that should hold in order to maintain the bullish count. (which it did on Friday)
Clear as mud, right? Here's the thing. The commentary has been about "oversold" conditions as well as terminology like potential "capitulation" being used. In addition, it looks like people are beginning to establish some long call positions or at least begin to nibble on starting a position like Red was beginning to suggest yesterday. Mace - you know better than most that if for any reason markets melt down nothing is immune and we can breach all levels but I just don't think we are in that type of market. Clearly go with what you think is right but I think we are in a correction within a bull market which makes this a buying opportunity and keeps this count in a wave 4 on AAPL. Personally I think there is a low probability that the Fed will raise rates this year in particular given recent currency events but no one knows what the hell they will do...let's be honest...we're in the biggest casino in the world for all intents and purposes. I'll fill you in if I read anything else from the EW boys as we approach Sunday night...that's usually when it gets busy over there. Sorry if I wasn't very helpful but that's all I have.
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Post by nagrani on Aug 22, 2015 16:59:04 GMT -8
Thanks. PB - do you have a link to the site where the EW boys and gals hang out? Would be interested in checking it out and potentially subscribing.
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Post by 2centsplus on Aug 22, 2015 17:49:07 GMT -8
Be moderately greedy when others are fearful?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 22, 2015 18:02:18 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Aug 22, 2015 18:06:23 GMT -8
What are people's iPhone unit expectations for Q1 2016? Just trying to think a few months ahead. I know the average analyst expectation is a measly 2% growth but given the extremely poor sentiment on the stock right now I can't help but think that anything in the single digits would tank it. I'm pretty sure units will grow but I have no idea if it's going to be 2%, 5%, 10% or 20%+.
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 22, 2015 20:52:40 GMT -8
As we already know from reading the columns for the last few weeks and watching the video sound bites, long term holders of AAPL are clearly doomed. /s Our latest indication was the harshest recent drop of $6.89 on Friday and the clincher for me was going into an Apple Store at 5:00 PM on a Saturday and finding a meager crowd like the one in the attachment. Fortunately, this isn’t my “normal” Apple Store at Valley Fair in Santa Clara, Ca. This is the store in Anchorage, Alaska because, after almost 2 weeks in this beautiful state, I couldn’t resist the temptation to check out the Apple Store when we got into Anchorage on our way back to California. Since I was surprised at the small number of people in the store, I approached the nearest Apple employee to find out if this was a typical Saturday night. He told me it truly was a slow night, as far as he was concerned, but had only worked for the store for a month or so. In spite of the fact that anyone who reads the tech press knows the Apple Watch is a flop, I asked John how they were selling. Shockingly enough, he told me they were selling pretty well and, in fact, he had sold 5 Apple Watches, himself, the previous day. He volunteered that the Apple Watch on his wrist was purchased before he started working at the store. Obviously an Apple Fanboy. But 5 Apple Watches, sold by one employee, in the Apple Store in Anchorage, Alaska? I think that's pretty good for a product that's a flop. So, anyway, we’re headed home tomorrow and I need to break the news of AAPL's recent decline to our 12-year-old grandson who kicked in almost $1000 of his own money to help buy 15 more shares of AAPL for his custodial account at the low, low price of $127.50. Actually, explaining that will be the easy part. The difficult part will be convincing him to invest even more of his money after AAPL reverses, hopefully soon, and starts to climb back where it belongs. You know, the part we all understand about "Buy Low and Hold". Cheers to the (not) doomed Apple Longs!!
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Post by phoebear611 on Aug 23, 2015 3:50:06 GMT -8
Thanks. PB - do you have a link to the site where the EW boys and gals hang out? Would be interested in checking it out and potentially subscribing. It's Avi's site...I thought you knew.
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Post by nagrani on Aug 23, 2015 5:56:24 GMT -8
Thanks. PB - do you have a link to the site where the EW boys and gals hang out? Would be interested in checking it out and potentially subscribing. It's Avi's site...I thought you knew. Sent you a private MSG
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Post by rickag on Aug 23, 2015 10:11:10 GMT -8
What are people's iPhone unit expectations for Q1 2016? Just trying to think a few months ahead. I know the average analyst expectation is a measly 2% growth but given the extremely poor sentiment on the stock right now I can't help but think that anything in the single digits would tank it. I'm pretty sure units will grow but I have no idea if it's going to be 2%, 5%, 10% or 20%+. Not a clue and I am not predicting, but: I wouldn't be disappointed with an ~12% increase to ~ 83 million total iPhones sold. The Wall Street Journal already started a rumor that Apple is preparing to build 85 to 90 million iPhone 6S / 6S+ for sale, how they get these numbers is highly questionable and debatable. Since 85 to 90 million the WSJ mentioned is just the iPhone 6S / 6S+ I have to assume this production is over at least 2 quarters even though, as the rumor spread it was iPhone 6S / 6S+ made by the end of the year. The tougher comparison will be margins, the eps went up ~47% the 1stFQ15, i am guessing because the iPhone 6 / 6+ had better margins compared to the iPhone 5S. This go around, the margins shouldn't increase for the iPhone 6S / 6S+. That said, I would be ecstatic if Apple sells the high end of the WSJ's number of 90 million iPhone 6S / 6S+ only by the end of the year, throw in another 20 - 30 million older model iPhones and I would bet AAPL would go up rather quickly. In reviewing Apple's 10Ks since June 14, I took comfort in the fact that Apple has retired 278,612,000 fully diluted and 282,749,000 basic shares in the last 4 quarters (re: an average right @ 70,000,000 shares/fiscal quarter). Here's hoping they retire another 50-70 million shares in the current quarter.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Aug 23, 2015 10:42:52 GMT -8
I think you might want to check your assumption about S generation margins not being better, unless Apple throws in one hell of an upgrade
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Post by sponge on Aug 23, 2015 10:43:55 GMT -8
Last year at this time WSJ reported 70-80 million of the iPhone 6 to be ordered for 2014 season.
I say we will see 15-20% gain from last year. The drop in price for last years models will spur that extra 5%.
WS was caught off guard, however the stock did move 20% in anticipation of record quarter last year. I think they will be in for another surprise since they only expect 2% growth.
If we get good guidance we should do well, but TC would love the stock to stay lower a little longer thru Christmas, so they could buy back as much as possible in their biggest cash flow quarter of the year.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Aug 23, 2015 11:01:09 GMT -8
I've been stewing on the 2012 comparison and in particular the GM aspect as of course that was the fundamental driver of EPS decline from '12 to '13. History says 'S' years are GM-positive, but rumour has it this year we see a hardware rev to force touch screens. Any thoughts on the GM implications if this particular rumour is true? What else could cause GM decline on a YoY basis?
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