JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 30, 2015 11:52:35 GMT -8
A good deal more Apple employees can attend, which is a plus. Mav, why is that a good thing? More people to cheer wildly during product unveilings? Builds esprit de corps to have the little people included?
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Aug 30, 2015 12:13:24 GMT -8
Lots of speculation out there about September 9, but I haven't seen anything that really convinces me that they needed such a big venue. The uncertainty might drive the stock up on a "buy the rumor, sell the news" opportunity, but no matter what is announced, I would expect the stock to give up any gains during or right after the event. The dreaded January Y-O-Y compares loom ever nearer and that fear will be very difficult to overcome. ( Wait, I am channeling Sponge here. Please add "I think" or IMHO before each sentence.)
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Post by Lstream on Aug 30, 2015 13:35:47 GMT -8
I just watched Ex Machina. My hope is that Apple is jumping into AI in a big way, and will be launching their own version of Ava. 3000 of them in attendance to fill those seats. Alicia Vikander - aka AvaI would likely line up at the Apple Store for the first time ever to get one.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 30, 2015 14:11:57 GMT -8
Thanks for two info-packed responses this morning, 4aapl. Having worked at Apple, your recollections of your time spent there is always interesting and I enjoy your thoughts, as well as other member's ideas, on possible improvements to Apple products. Ahhh, Thanks! For better or worse, it's been long enough that I don't have to worry about letting out any secrets. Whereas while working there, if I was speculating on anything, even if I didn't have a hint of actual knowledge on it, I felt I had to attribute that speculation or where I was coming from, often from apple insider or macosrumors. But for current ideas, I'd wager that most of us here think about Apple a lot more than the general populous, and thus do come up with some great ideas. I enjoy seeing some of that info here, along with the stock market info of those with past direct experience, or those that have been much more focused on certain things like technical analysis or playing weeklies or trading often or whatever. It's nice to see glimpses into such things.
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Post by rickag on Aug 30, 2015 15:24:49 GMT -8
Welcome to the bizarro world of rickag financial forecasting. If I remember correctly, mighty big if for this old man, Apple sold ~ 39 million iPhones. Apple guidence for FQ 4 was $49 - $51 billion. Tim Cook did say Apple Watch sales were exceeding internal expectations. Conservatively Apple will sell 4.5 million at a wag of $500, or ~ $2.25 billion. Last year's FQ 4 revenue was ~ $42 billion, I checked Soooooo, $42 + $2.25 = $44.25 billion. just $4.5 - $6.5 billion to get to guidance. Last year Mac sales were 5.5 million for $6.6 billion or about $1200/Mac. Last year Mac sales were up YOY ~ 21%. Could be up more YOY, but I would be happy with + 10%. That's another $660 million. $42 + $2.25 + $.66 = $44.91 billion. Only $4.08 - $6.08 billion to go to get to guidance. If iTunes/Software/Services increase 10% add another $460 million. Sooooo $42 + $2.25 + $0.66 + $0.46 = $45.37 billion. Only $3.63 - $5.63 billion to go. The average selling price in the transition to the iPhone 6/6+ For all iPhones sold increased ~7% - 18%. FQ 4 2014 39 million units : $23.68billion. ($602/iPhone) FQ 3 2015 47.5 million units : $31.4 billion ($661/iPhone) FQ 3 2014 35 million units : $19.75 billion ($561/iPhone) before iPhone 6/6+ If my memory did serve me well the 39 million sold last year would by generate an additional 7% - 18% revenue on its own. Damn this is way too much friggin work, screw this.BLOW OUT QUARTER BOOK IT !!!!!!
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Post by rickag on Aug 30, 2015 15:40:43 GMT -8
That link is sooooo cool, thank you.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Aug 30, 2015 16:01:35 GMT -8
Lstream
Check out AMC's Humans.....
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Post by phoebear611 on Aug 30, 2015 16:56:03 GMT -8
Had a very busy weekend and am just catching up now. My son just got back from Ireland and had a blast! Had read about this Apple Music issue on Friday evening and to be clear - I am certainly not an authority on this topic but most definitely have an opinion as I'm sure several others may have as well. Clearly, in no way was this a voluntary departure. Mr. Rogers got the proverbial boot. Lest we forget that this was touted originally as Rogers' "dream job". This whole music area has not been getting the accolades they had hoped for. Actually - it's been dramatically worse. Remember Jim Dalrymple's eloquent albeit frustrated piece on Apple Music and iTunes? The man was pushed beyond the edge. And that was from a HUGE Apple fan. There are problems there and TC and the management must realize it. The numbers are also probably starting to tally as well. Granted, they will never look too bad given that the paradigm is similar to AOL's dial up service (people forgot they were paying for a dial up service they didn't even have any longer) ....folks will forget to turn off the service when it becomes "for pay" and voila Apple will have a pretty vast subscriber base! (but don't let the methodology fool you.) Anectodally - the 20-something crowd is not biting. I cannot find one blessed person - even those who have every single Apple gadget and are tied up in Apple ecosystems- who are using Apple Music instead of their beloved Spotify. Apple needs to get their act together in this space - music is basic to who they are - part of their fabric- and yet another thing they didn't get right (just MY opinion). iTunes needs fixing - it's all smashed together - frigging mess. PS The whole Ian Rogers being in another industry thing - that's just the non-compete part of his contract. He'll be back as soon as it's up...I'll bet money on that.
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Post by osx10 on Aug 30, 2015 18:12:54 GMT -8
Curious whether any of you are already running on your Mac/Safari with an Ad Blocker and the results?
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Aug 30, 2015 19:07:49 GMT -8
I very respectfully disagree with your view on "why not more people" 4aapl.
Technically, Apple could get more out of their employees by getting rid of or otherwise curtailing that 3-day Thanksgiving-or-whatever break for Apple employees that Tim Cook instituted (of course, that extra time off has to be distributed in various, diffuse ways to minimize disruption)...
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 881
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Post by Ted on Aug 30, 2015 20:35:52 GMT -8
Yuck, futures not looking good. Dow off 220+... Good luck to the longs - again.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 30, 2015 20:42:46 GMT -8
I very respectfully disagree with your view on "why not more people" 4aapl. Technically, Apple could get more out of their employees by getting rid of or otherwise curtailing that 3-day Thanksgiving-or-whatever break for Apple employees that Tim Cook instituted (of course, that extra time off has to be distributed in various, diffuse ways to minimize disruption)... No problem. I'm not in HR, and incentivizing employees is not my forte. I think there's at least a few books out there on the subject. I was more focused on the "is there a need for them to be there" side. I don't think there is a need for more employees to be at the announcement, or rather not such a leap to require a much larger venue. OTOH, from the "hearing people clap and shout in glee for all the great stuff you've been working all too hard on over the past 6-18 months", that is a good thing. Different people want different things out of a paycheck, but hearing that people really like what you are doing is nice to hear. But, I was still thinking it's a limited number of people. There've got to be a lot of people working on iOS now, so it is adding up. And it's probably a lot more than I would initially guess, since the iPhone has been such a large portion of their earnings and revenue for a long time now. I forget that this announcement isn't just an iPhone HW release plus some other (great!) stuff, but it's also the major iOS release. So there could very well be thousands working on it these days. A check of the onsite employees now vs 10 years ago could be a good starting point, if someone really wanted to get more exact. Well, I'm rambling, and I'm tired. It's great to find non-monetary ways to thank employees, and great to have them hear that they are appreciated. That could explain the huge venue, especially if they tied in a big party afterwards for the employees or something. I was only a contractor when Apple threw a big party at Moffet Field in the huge hanger that I think Google now owns, so I couldn't go. Future parties were of a much smaller scale, going to Dave and Busters a couple times, or a daytime party at a Hotel conference room. Ahhhh, but I know a lot of people loved getting the first showing of the Lord of the Rings series, and maybe a Pixar film or two, at the theatres just down the freeway a few exits. These little, occasional, perks were nice.....and though I don't really think that's what it's about this time, I can see that being worth it. We'll see. It's always fun to take guesses....though also often pointless.
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Post by 2centsplus on Aug 30, 2015 20:51:40 GMT -8
Had a very busy weekend and am just catching up now. My son just got back from Ireland and had a blast! Had read about this Apple Music issue on Friday evening and to be clear - I am certainly not an authority on this topic but most definitely have an opinion as I'm sure several others may have as well. Clearly, in no way was this a voluntary departure. Mr. Rogers got the proverbial boot. Lest we forget that this was touted originally as Rogers' "dream job". This whole music area has not been getting the accolades they had hoped for. Actually - it's been dramatically worse. Remember Jim Dalrymple's eloquent albeit frustrated piece on Apple Music and iTunes? The man was pushed beyond the edge. And that was from a HUGE Apple fan. There are problems there and TC and the management must realize it. The numbers are also probably starting to tally as well. Granted, they will never look too bad given that the paradigm is similar to AOL's dial up service (people forgot they were paying for a dial up service they didn't even have any longer) ....folks will forget to turn off the service when it becomes "for pay" and voila Apple will have a pretty vast subscriber base! (but don't let the methodology fool you.) Anectodally - the 20-something crowd is not biting. I cannot find one blessed person - even those who have every single Apple gadget and are tied up in Apple ecosystems- who are using Apple Music instead of their beloved Spotify. Apple needs to get their act together in this space - music is basic to who they are - part of their fabric- and yet another thing they didn't get right (just MY opinion). iTunes needs fixing - it's all smashed together - frigging mess. PS The whole Ian Rogers being in another industry thing - that's just the non-compete part of his contract. He'll be back as soon as it's up...I'll bet money on that. Thanks for the thoughts - I agree with what you are saying and find it a little worrisome.
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Post by 2centsplus on Aug 30, 2015 21:01:06 GMT -8
I just watched Ex Machina. My hope is that Apple is jumping into AI in a big way, and will be launching their own version of Ava. 3000 of them in attendance to fill those seats. Alicia Vikander - aka AvaI would likely line up at the Apple Store for the first time ever to get one. Well, people complain that Apple could never come up with another product as popular as the iphone with such high margins - here's one that would be 10x as desirable with 10x the margins.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Aug 30, 2015 22:59:19 GMT -8
Curious whether any of you are already running on your Mac/Safari with an Ad Blocker and the results? I have been using Ad blocker for several months and have had no problems. I run Parallels with Windows XP for legacy programs and I bought Ad blocker for both operating systems. I was surprised to get a personal thank you letter from the developer. Evidently most people do not pay for it
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Post by rob_london on Aug 31, 2015 0:19:50 GMT -8
I just watched Ex Machina. My hope is that Apple is jumping into AI in a big way, and will be launching their own version of Ava. 3000 of them in attendance to fill those seats. Alicia Vikander - aka AvaI would likely line up at the Apple Store for the first time ever to get one. Brian White of Cantor, earlier this year: "International CES showcased the Robotics Marketplace with a plethora of robotics-related companies and 25% expansion in exhibit space this year. This got us thinking that Apple has an opportunity to leverage its heritage in the computer market, technology innovation in mobile devices (e.g., Siri, cameras, iOS, etc.) and reputation for making user-friendly solutions to develop personal robots for the home. A company called Five Elements Robotics was in attendance and highlighted a personal robot named Budgee. In our view, a personal robot (in the home or with you during the day) makes a lot of sense in the future. In the home, a personal robot could be used for security surveillance, day care, conference calls, cleaning, carrying things and as a personal companion. Given that Apple’s Siri has already developed a personality, we believe Siri could be an interesting persona for a personal robot from Apple in the future. Again, we believe the trajectory of the market and the skill sets at Apple (with the potential for acquisitions in the area) makes us think this could be an interesting area for the company in the future."
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