Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Sept 25, 2015 20:51:24 GMT -8
Well I laughed at this and thought it would a good way to kick off the weekend (and mock the [in]competition). www.patentlyapple.com/patently-apple/2015/09/samsung-has-just-developed-the-ultimate-gesturing-technology.html"Samsung notes that while holding a mobile device with one hand, the user may need to perform an input using another hand and thus, may experience an inconvenience. But no more, says Samsung, due to their all-new spatial recognition-based user interfacing technology and methodology.Introducing the Tongue-Thruster Gesture" Yes, really.
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 26, 2015 0:00:19 GMT -8
From yesterday's intraday thread: ... The challenge Apple has is that they only have so much domestic cash available for buybacks. WS knows that so they are not in a hurry to add more shares. It is the retail folks that are moving this stock 30% in the last 12 months. True. And this is what makes me feel that even if Apple announces "15 million sold" on Monday the stock will probably go to 118-119 and then recede to 115 in a couple of days. Unless they also announce a revised guidance which has revenue up by 5 billion+ Just thinking out loud
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 26, 2015 7:43:07 GMT -8
The quarter ends today. Apple has delivered tons of phones, ensuring a YOY increase in revs and EPS.
Tomorrow we begin the mother of all fiscal quarters.....a huge chunk of initial iPhone orders that lagged a day or two, watch broad rollout, new tv in October- dec, iPad Pro in Nov-Dec, Apple Music revs for those who stayed beyond the trial, Apple Pay over the holidays ( services will rock).
Yeah, yeah, the phone still drives the ship but every billlllllion in revs helps.
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Post by hledgard on Sept 26, 2015 8:18:10 GMT -8
From yesterday's intraday thread: ... The challenge Apple has is that they only have so much domestic cash available for buybacks. WS knows that so they are not in a hurry to add more shares. It is the retail folks that are moving this stock 30% in the last 12 months. Given the election next year, anyone dare give odds on a tax holiday or a reduced rate to encourage Apple to bring cash from overseas?
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Post by ericinaustin on Sept 26, 2015 8:24:13 GMT -8
Just got back from the Apple Store in the domain in North Austin. Had to take my iMac in for a new hard drive (six years old) got it replaced in 24 hours and when I went to pick it up the line for the new iPhones was about half a block long. The store it self was literally packed with people. It's sad really but when you leave the domain you have to drive around by the Microsoft store. It's a blatant rip off of the Apple retail design aesthetic except you couldn't tell if it was open yet. Very empty.
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Post by sponge on Sept 26, 2015 8:34:08 GMT -8
From yesterday's intraday thread: ... The challenge Apple has is that they only have so much domestic cash available for buybacks. WS knows that so they are not in a hurry to add more shares. It is the retail folks that are moving this stock 30% in the last 12 months. Given the election next year, anyone dare give odds on a tax holiday or a reduced rate to encourage Apple to bring cash from overseas? I don't think so. I am not so certain that Apple is all that frustrated regarding overseas cash. Nor do I think they are eager to buyback as much as possible. They look long term. At the rate they are buying back given the stock appreciation and cash flow generation, they can remove about half the shares from the market in 18 years. That alone, I believe guarantees at least 20% stock growth for the same period. The day will come when they will announce a 25-50% dividend increase and it will cost them less then 10 billion a year. The company is cash rich and despite their buybacks, dividends, R&D spending, Capital project, and store expansions, they continue to grow the pile. Let's not forget they have low market share in every product and category in the world. The opportunity to grow has never been stronger.
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Post by rickag on Sept 26, 2015 8:36:24 GMT -8
From yesterday's intraday thread: ... The challenge Apple has is that they only have so much domestic cash available for buybacks. WS knows that so they are not in a hurry to add more shares. It is the retail folks that are moving this stock 30% in the last 12 months. Given the election next year, anyone dare give odds on a tax holiday or a reduced rate to encourage Apple to bring cash from overseas? Not just Apple, if memory serves there is over $2.0 TRILLION held overseas.
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Post by sponge on Sept 26, 2015 8:38:33 GMT -8
From yesterday's intraday thread: ... The challenge Apple has is that they only have so much domestic cash available for buybacks. WS knows that so they are not in a hurry to add more shares. It is the retail folks that are moving this stock 30% in the last 12 months. True. And this is what makes me feel that even if Apple announces "15 million sold" on Monday the stock will probably go to 118-119 and then recede to 115 in a couple of days. Unless they also announce a revised guidance which has revenue up by 5 billion+ Just thinking out loud I am agreeing with you. The only solace is that we may not correct after we get to 118-119. We did not sell off after the iPhone 6s was announced except a quick move to 111 which did not last more then a few hours. I want us to break the 200 MA in the next 20 days.
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Post by chasmac on Sept 26, 2015 8:48:36 GMT -8
From yesterday's intraday thread: ... The challenge Apple has is that they only have so much domestic cash available for buybacks. WS knows that so they are not in a hurry to add more shares. It is the retail folks that are moving this stock 30% in the last 12 months. Given the election next year, anyone dare give odds on a tax holiday or a reduced rate to encourage Apple to bring cash from overseas? Wouldn't happen until at least 2017 at the earliest.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 26, 2015 8:53:05 GMT -8
Poll of guesses for Monday's announcement...
A - No announcement B - "exceeded last year" C - over 11 million D - over 12 E - over 13 F - over 14 G - over 15
I'm going with D
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Post by sponge on Sept 26, 2015 9:08:00 GMT -8
E
It maybe be closer to 14, but knowing Apple they will just say over 13.
The YOY weekend growth rate gets cut in half for 1st quarter.
So we should see 18-20% for first quarter. WS expects 6% with many looking at flat or negative for the rest of 2016. What fools.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 26, 2015 9:31:10 GMT -8
Poll of guesses for Monday's announcement... A - No announcement B - "exceeded last year" C - over 11 million D - over 12 E - over 13 F - over 14 G - over 15 I'm going with D I'm with D as well... With some comment like "demand still outstripping strong supplies".
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 26, 2015 10:13:05 GMT -8
Poll of guesses for Monday's announcement... A - No announcement B - "exceeded last year" C - over 11 million D - over 12 E - over 13 F - over 14 G - over 15 I'm going with D My guess is that because you published this, we will get 5 analysts announcing that they expect 20 million, followed by a plunge to 105 when we announce only 18 million.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 26, 2015 11:03:46 GMT -8
The quarter ends today. Apple has delivered tons of phones, ensuring a YOY increase in revs and EPS. Tomorrow we begin the mother of all fiscal quarters.....a huge chunk of initial iPhone orders that lagged a day or two, watch broad rollout, new tv in October- dec, iPad Pro in Nov-Dec, Apple Music revs for those who stayed beyond the trial, Apple Pay over the holidays ( services will rock). Yeah, yeah, the phone still drives the ship but every billlllllion in revs helps. So I'm wondering, could this Q1 be the billion-dollar-a-day quarter? A jump from $74.6B-$90B (+20.6%) is less than 2015's YoY jump from $57.6-$74.6B (+29.5%). It's inevitable, but whenever it happens, it will be one hell of a milestone, one billion dollars in revs per day. Think about that. I remember when a billion a year was something... (Please, no responses with the word "modeling" in them. This is just me thinking out loud, not trying to encourage the amateur blind dart throwers with Parkinson's).
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Post by nagrani on Sept 26, 2015 11:27:20 GMT -8
Poll of guesses for Monday's announcement... A - No announcement B - "exceeded last year" C - over 11 million D - over 12 E - over 13 F - over 14 G - over 15 I'm going with D I'm with D as well... With some comment like "demand still outstripping strong supplies". G
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Sept 26, 2015 11:53:41 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 26, 2015 12:03:36 GMT -8
Poll of guesses for Monday's announcement... A - No announcement B - "exceeded last year" C - over 11 million D - over 12 E - over 13 F - over 14 G - over 15 I'm going with D G
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Post by mikelicht on Sept 26, 2015 12:23:03 GMT -8
+5. What he said!
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Post by firestorm on Sept 26, 2015 12:55:45 GMT -8
The quarter ends today. Apple has delivered tons of phones, ensuring a YOY increase in revs and EPS. Tomorrow we begin the mother of all fiscal quarters.....a huge chunk of initial iPhone orders that lagged a day or two, watch broad rollout, new tv in October- dec, iPad Pro in Nov-Dec, Apple Music revs for those who stayed beyond the trial, Apple Pay over the holidays ( services will rock). Yeah, yeah, the phone still drives the ship but every billlllllion in revs helps. So I'm wondering, could this Q1 be the billion-dollar-a-day quarter? A jump from $74.6B-$90B (+20.6%) is less than 2015's YoY jump from $57.6-$74.6B (+29.5%). It's inevitable, but whenever it happens, it will be one hell of a milestone, one billion dollars in revs per day. Think about that. I remember when a billion a year was something... (Please, no responses with the word "modeling" in them. This is just me thinking out loud, not trying to encourage the amateur blind dart throwers with Parkinson's). I take offense: I am a blind amateur dart thrower with Parkinson's, and my accuracy beats the pros by 50%.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 26, 2015 13:37:38 GMT -8
So I'm wondering, could this Q1 be the billion-dollar-a-day quarter? A jump from $74.6B-$90B (+20.6%) is less than 2015's YoY jump from $57.6-$74.6B (+29.5%). It's inevitable, but whenever it happens, it will be one hell of a milestone, one billion dollars in revs per day. Think about that. I remember when a billion a year was something... (Please, no responses with the word "modeling" in them. This is just me thinking out loud, not trying to encourage the amateur blind dart throwers with Parkinson's). I take offense: I am a blind amateur dart thrower with Parkinson's, and my accuracy beats the pros by 50%. I just don't find 1.5% accuracy all that impressive, sorry man.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Sept 26, 2015 14:16:55 GMT -8
fwiw, Sorkin apologizes, from AppleInsider...
"You know what, I think that Tim Cook and I probably both went a little too far,” Sorkin told E! News. "And I apologize to Tim Cook. I hope when he sees the movie, he enjoys it as much as I enjoy his products.”
I'm glad he did this cause his previous bullshit statement was bugging me. PED points out the whole thing was probably just for publicity... Imagine, someone exploiting Apple's name for self-promotion.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 26, 2015 15:21:27 GMT -8
Going with D
Only because I believe supply for the 6S+ is constrained. Walked into a Best Buy today just to ask ... they had the 6S for AT&T ... didn't check the other carriers but the salesperson told me they had no 6s+ units in stock, also said they didn't get very many to begin with.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 26, 2015 15:32:45 GMT -8
I'm going with E .... 13 has always been a lucky number and always present in my life in the weirdest of ways ... so lucky 13 it is!
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Post by sponge on Sept 26, 2015 16:20:57 GMT -8
Well I just got back from Apple Store. Ended up buying the 6S. Updating from back up as we speak. They will make a killing with their Apple upgrade plans by the way.
The nice salesman said they sold $500K less in the first day compared to last year. At an average of $650 a piece that 769 less iPhones. The problem is that we don't know how many they sold last year.
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Post by firestorm on Sept 26, 2015 16:23:51 GMT -8
Well I just got back from Apple Store. Ended up buying the 6S. Updating from back up as we speak. They will make a killing with their Apple upgrade plans by the way. The nice salesman said they sold $500K less in the first day compared to last year. At an average of $650 a piece that 769 less iPhones. The problem is that we don't know how many they sold last year. That's a bit of good evidence. Let's not get carried away with wild predictions; it could just be that this will be an "s" year with somewhat diminished results.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 26, 2015 17:21:33 GMT -8
Well I just got back from Apple Store. Ended up buying the 6S. Updating from back up as we speak. They will make a killing with their Apple upgrade plans by the way. The nice salesman said they sold $500K less in the first day compared to last year. At an average of $650 a piece that 769 less iPhones. The problem is that we don't know how many they sold last year. That's a bit of good evidence. Let's not get carried away with wild predictions; it could just be that this will be an "s" year with somewhat diminished results. Remember China did not roll out the same day last time ... that should make a significant difference although I'm definitely not convinced with some of the pie in the sky numbers I hear floating around. Then again ... there has be no run up on the stock so really it shouldn't make any difference but we all know it will ....
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Post by dreamRaj on Sept 26, 2015 17:26:03 GMT -8
The thing is there's China in the first wave this time. Also, an extra week of pre-orders. And, Apple has already said they're on track to beat 10 mill. Now, they wouldn't have said that unless their insight into the pre-order sales showed a wide lead over last year's numbers. Finally, I'm foolishly bullish, as always.
Seems like it'll only be Nagrani and me going for G.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 26, 2015 17:46:09 GMT -8
I stand behind my prediction and I'll also think Monday is going to be an epic day for apple shareholders. Been waiting for this day for a while. Cheers to the longs
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Sept 26, 2015 17:50:21 GMT -8
The thing is there's China in the first wave this time. Also, an extra week of pre-orders. And, Apple has already said they're on track to beat 10 mill. Now, they wouldn't have said that unless their insight into the pre-order sales showed a wide lead over last year's numbers. Finally, I'm foolishly bullish, as always. Seems like it'll only be Nagrani and me going for G. I'll join you.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 26, 2015 18:51:33 GMT -8
That is really impressive. Mind you, as much as I appreciate that it's "waterproof", I'm not going to test it out. Why didn't Apple mention any of this? I guess they can still claim water damage if it's wet.
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