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Post by sponge on Sept 26, 2015 19:04:40 GMT -8
Been playing with my 6S. The 3D touch and Live Photos are the most amazing features. The Retina Flash for selfies is impressive as well.
Attended a small party and I had 4 people interested in my old 6.
The store clerk that helped me said that one of the reasons they had less sales were because they were by appointment only. Last year it was first come first serve so that is why they ran out the first day. They limited how many appointments they would take and control supply and traffic. Smart move for Apple.
Like I said, I expect a 50% drop in growth rate for 1st quarter. Less sales at the store can also be attributed to expanded distribution, more online preorders, extra week of pre orders, and lastly less interest in getting it on the first day.
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 26, 2015 19:55:12 GMT -8
Well I just got back from Apple Store. Ended up buying the 6S. Updating from back up as we speak. They will make a killing with their Apple upgrade plans by the way. The nice salesman said they sold $500K less in the first day compared to last year. At an average of $650 a piece that 769 less iPhones. The problem is that we don't know how many they sold last year. Do the salespeople in the Apple stores get access to the daily sales reports? Seems odd to me.
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mark
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Post by mark on Sept 26, 2015 20:05:22 GMT -8
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jz
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"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
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Post by jz on Sept 26, 2015 20:30:47 GMT -8
Poll of guesses for Monday's announcement... A - No announcement B - "exceeded last year" C - over 11 million D - over 12 E - over 13 F - over 14 G - over 15 I think Horace at Asymco would answer the question: How many is Apple capable of making? ... I imagine his guess would be better than most. My WAG is over 15, with my tiebreaker prediction being that the market spin machine will decide, whatever number is or isn't reported, it's too low because China launch is included in now, but not in last year's numbers. But I hope Nagrani is right. ... We all believe at some point, sanity will return, I'm guessing via a slingshot to new ATH. I just don't think it will be Monday. What about new quarter fund flows Oct. 1? A bump next Thursday?
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Post by sponge on Sept 26, 2015 20:43:59 GMT -8
Well I just got back from Apple Store. Ended up buying the 6S. Updating from back up as we speak. They will make a killing with their Apple upgrade plans by the way. The nice salesman said they sold $500K less in the first day compared to last year. At an average of $650 a piece that 769 less iPhones. The problem is that we don't know how many they sold last year. Do the salespeople in the Apple stores get access to the daily sales reports? Seems odd to me. I was surprised by his answer. Not sure how real it is. When I asked him numbers he said I was smart enough to figure that out by average selling price. One day sales in one store is not enough data even if true. Never the less I had heard some of the bigger stores had 1400 iPhones for first day last year.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Sept 26, 2015 22:02:41 GMT -8
I realize that it impossible to not try to rationalize about the stock price and Apple's performance, but I would be willing to bet that any attempt to compute an actual correlation between the two would find a 0 or negative correlation. We have watched this stock long enough to know that there are so many traders trying to game the system that it overwhelms any logical movement. How many quarters have we seen blowout results ignored or even worse, causing a selloff. I think someone has figured out that we cannot resist the need for fundamental analysis to be useful. We come back to it over and over because we have nothing else. The thought that the stock moves irrationally is just to scary, so we make out bets based on the performance of the company, as if that would give us a clue into the performance of the stock. And it never does.
We are not steering a course here, based on the principles of navigation. We are hanging on a log, going where the current takes us.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 27, 2015 4:59:52 GMT -8
Maybe Apple will just give us some general statement like - we crushed last years preorder number by a wide margin and leave it at that - this would be an alternative to giving a number.
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Post by chasmac on Sept 27, 2015 5:45:07 GMT -8
Do the salespeople in the Apple stores get access to the daily sales reports? Seems odd to me. I was surprised by his answer. Not sure how real it is. When I asked him numbers he said I was smart enough to figure that out by average selling price. One day sales in one store is not enough data even if true. Never the less I had heard some of the bigger stores had 1400 iPhones for first day last year. Individual stores numbers or lines mean very little. New points of sale are added every year. We do know for a fact though that percentage-wise, very few people had upgraded to the 6. We do know that they'll be able to repurpose older phones into developing world and that will be helped by the new Apple purchase plan. We do know that they are expanding store counts worldwide, especially China. We do know that even with buy backs, divys and cap ex., they are still adding to the asset pile. We do know that Apple is still an aspirational product(s) and that people are switching to it, not leaving it. We do know that they are using renewable energy in many of their facilities, they will be well positioned for higher energy prices. Pretty low P/E right now, in it for the long haul. PS. new iPhone is fantastic! It's so fast, great pics, 3D Touch, etc. well done. Bought 3, very happy.
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Post by auhkram on Sept 27, 2015 7:05:56 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 27, 2015 8:04:08 GMT -8
They only sold 15 million iPhones.........
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Post by sponge on Sept 27, 2015 8:23:58 GMT -8
They only sold 15 million iPhones......... I am afraid those who are expecting 15 may be in for a letdown. Glad WS is modeling 11-13. Apple might have been limited by supply and just moved 12 when they could have moved 2-3 more million. In the bigger picture is does not matter. They will sell more next year with the 7, and that will repeat for at least 7 more years. Apple selling unlocked phones thru 0 interest financing will expand to other countries and keep the party going for years to come. Let's not forget that they are selling other great products. My wife saw the gold aluminum Apple Watch and wants to sell her grey now. They will expand that line and drive amazing sales and wearable adoption. There has never been a better time to own the stock. Summer of 2013 was a little better,and Spring of 2009 was also a great time. In the end if you held for 10 years you should be very happy.
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 27, 2015 9:21:03 GMT -8
I realize that it impossible to not try to rationalize about the stock price and Apple's performance, but I would be willing to bet that any attempt to compute an actual correlation between the two would find a 0 or negative correlation. We have watched this stock long enough to know that there are so many traders trying to game the system that it overwhelms any logical movement. How many quarters have we seen blowout results ignored or even worse, causing a selloff. I think someone has figured out that we cannot resist the need for fundamental analysis to be useful. We come back to it over and over because we have nothing else. The thought that the stock moves irrationally is just to scary, so we make out bets based on the performance of the company, as if that would give us a clue into the performance of the stock. And it never does. We are not steering a course here, based on the principles of navigation. We are hanging on a log, going where the current takes us.This is the most accurate description and analogy of AAPL shareholders situation I've ever seen. Nicely done, budd777.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 27, 2015 11:19:12 GMT -8
Part of me wishes Apple would just stop with the numbers all together. They simply can't win ... last year they sold 10 million iPhone 6's IF they do 12 million this year they will still probably get killed in the press .... it would be a 20% increase for a already HUGE number but it won't matter. Add to that AAPL trades at a multiple that rivals utilities but everyone expects it to produce results like a high growth stock ? It makes no sense and hasn't made sense for years .... if you give it a PE in the high 20s you should expect some pretty good growth but when the PE is as low as it is ... give me a break.
Tim should tell WS to go f themselves tomorrow at 5:30 ... then buy as much stock as they can until earnings are announced.
Cheers to the longs ....
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Sept 27, 2015 12:00:48 GMT -8
Part of me wishes Apple would just stop with the numbers all together. They simply can't win ... last year they sold 10 million iPhone 6's IF they do 12 million this year they will still probably get killed in the press .... it would be a 20% increase for a already HUGE number but it won't matter. Add to that AAPL trades at a multiple that rivals utilities but everyone expects it to produce results like a high growth stock ? It makes no sense and hasn't made sense for years .... if you give it a PE in the high 20s you should expect some pretty good growth but when the PE is as low as it is ... give me a break. Tim should tell WS to go f themselves tomorrow at 5:30 ... then buy as much stock as they can until earnings are announced. Cheers to the longs .... I believe they are in the stock buyback blackout window, where they can't buy any more of their own stock until two weeks after they report earnings.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Sept 27, 2015 12:17:25 GMT -8
Part of me wishes Apple would just stop with the numbers all together. They simply can't win ... last year they sold 10 million iPhone 6's IF they do 12 million this year they will still probably get killed in the press .... it would be a 20% increase for a already HUGE number but it won't matter. Add to that AAPL trades at a multiple that rivals utilities but everyone expects it to produce results like a high growth stock ? It makes no sense and hasn't made sense for years .... if you give it a PE in the high 20s you should expect some pretty good growth but when the PE is as low as it is ... give me a break. Tim should tell WS to go f themselves tomorrow at 5:30 ... then buy as much stock as they can until earnings are announced. Cheers to the longs .... I believe they are in the stock buyback blackout window, where they can't buy any more of their own stock until two weeks after they report earnings. We have looked at this before quite extensively. I think we found that while each company files a plan for when they will buyback and when they will blackout, there is not a required specific blackout window. They just have to follow what they set up in their plan. So far, I am not sure that anyone has discovered exactly what Apple's plan specifies. I would suspect that they hold that information pretty closely
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Post by rickag on Sept 27, 2015 16:43:47 GMT -8
Blood moon in Arlington tonight, a good omen for AAPL.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 27, 2015 16:55:15 GMT -8
Maybe Apple will just give us some general statement like - we crushed last years preorder number by a wide margin and leave it at that - this would be an alternative to giving a number. GEEZ - if they were to make a general statement like I would not view it as a good thing. Half the people would come up with FUD and say that if it was great they would say it - the other half would say it must be 20 million and really get expectations completely out of whack so that there will be no way of winning this one. Just a bad move in my opinion. If they weren't going to give out numbers then they should have made an announcement BEFORE the fact that they will stop announcing numbers. We were given a heads up with the watch even though we wait for any little morsel but still they have told us we aren't getting any...so all's fair. The worst thing they could do is to have been giving it all along and then suddenly stop without fair warning. They will be dragged through the mud mercilessly. We'll hear a number.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 27, 2015 16:56:57 GMT -8
"Customer response to iPhone 6S and iPhone 6S Plus has been extremely positive and preorders this weekend were very strong around the world," the company said in a statement. "We are on pace to beat last year's 10 million unit first-weekend record when the new iPhones go on sale Sept. 25."
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Post by nagrani on Sept 27, 2015 16:57:09 GMT -8
I think we get 15 mil. Supply seems to be plentiful this year China Channel fill New color
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 27, 2015 17:28:29 GMT -8
"Customer response to iPhone 6S and iPhone 6S Plus has been extremely positive and preorders this weekend were very strong around the world," the company said in a statement. "We are on pace to beat last year's 10 million unit first-weekend record when the new iPhones go on sale Sept. 25." Yes - but I'm saying AFTER the weekend. They should be giving us a number. Maybe we are saying the same thing - not sure.
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Post by rickag on Sept 27, 2015 17:40:13 GMT -8
What! No astronomy buffs in the crowd?
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 27, 2015 17:51:11 GMT -8
What! No astronomy buffs in the crowd? I'm sure I saw a few while growing up there ! Lamar High School and UTA grad. FWIW ... it looks much better from Burbank CA !
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Post by rickag on Sept 27, 2015 17:56:10 GMT -8
What! No astronomy buffs in the crowd? I'm sure I saw a few while growing up there ! Lamar High School and UTA grad. FWIW ... it looks much better from Burbank CA ! LOL. Wispy clouds here adding a neat effect. I think the next one here will be in 18 years.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 27, 2015 18:00:54 GMT -8
Maybe Apple will just give us some general statement like - we crushed last years preorder number by a wide margin and leave it at that - this would be an alternative to giving a number. GEEZ - if they were to make a general statement like I would not view it as a good thing. Half the people would come up with FUD and say that if it was great they would say it - the other half would say it must be 20 million and really get expectations completely out of whack so that there will be no way of winning this one. Just a bad move in my opinion. If they weren't going to give out numbers then they should have made an announcement BEFORE the fact that they will stop announcing numbers. We were given a heads up with the watch even though we wait for any little morsel but still they have told us we aren't getting any...so all's fair. The worst thing they could do is to have been giving it all along and then suddenly stop without fair warning. They will be dragged through the mud mercilessly. We'll hear a number. It's a dangerous game to play always providing numbers .. at some point Apple should announce they are going to stop breaking out ANY numbers .... here is what we made ... done. At some point this number thing is going to blow up in our faces. It will hurt when they do this but they have been more transparent than most companies that I can think of and it's gotten shareholders nothing but grief ..... there are way too many analysts who think they know exactly what is going on and in reality are no better than the members on this board. These ASSHOLES are wrong quarter after quarter and still they are on TV and writing blogs and hired by huge investment firms etc ... and they are never held accountable for the bullshit they come up with. It's become a easy way for people to game the stock and I'm sick of it .... I'm a investor ... I believe in the company and it's products and I'm sick to death of people fucking with this stock .... if the fundamentals and strength of this company are not worth investing in I can't think of a single investment on WS worth my money. Cheers to the longs ... Just reread my post ... I'm sticking to every word but you can tell I'm in a crappy mood after the Cowboys defense imploded .... I'm giving Weeden a pass this week .... but unless they find a few plays to stretch the field it's gonna be a tough 8 -10 wee
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 27, 2015 18:16:42 GMT -8
You are preaching to the converted. My point is simply that once you start to do it you need to give everyone a heads up if you are going to change the rules or else it will be nothing short of a mess - and I'm being kind in my depiction.
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Post by sponge on Sept 27, 2015 18:29:36 GMT -8
Maybe TC and company does not care about short term stock reaction. It is what it is regardless.
Good news is always something you share with your investors and customers.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 27, 2015 18:40:53 GMT -8
You are preaching to the converted. My point is simply that once you start to do it you need to give everyone a heads up if you are going to change the rules or else it will be nothing short of a mess - and I'm being kind in my depiction. I think they are already doing it. Like the first weekend orders - they didn't give an actual number. I think they just do it very slow and gradual.
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Post by BillH on Sept 27, 2015 18:55:39 GMT -8
there are way too many analysts who think they know exactly what is going on and in reality are no better than the members on this board. These ASSHOLES are wrong quarter after quarter and still they are on TV and writing blogs and hired by huge investment firms etc ... and they are never held accountable for the bullshit they come up with. It's become a easy way for people to game the stock and I'm sick of it .... I'm a investor ... I believe in the company and it's products and I'm sick to death of people fucking with this stock .... if the fundamentals and strength of this company are not worth investing in I can't think of a single investment on WS worth my money. Your post implies that you believe these people are listened to and actually have an impact on the stock price. I don't believe that to be true.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 27, 2015 20:24:54 GMT -8
there are way too many analysts who think they know exactly what is going on and in reality are no better than the members on this board. These ASSHOLES are wrong quarter after quarter and still they are on TV and writing blogs and hired by huge investment firms etc ... and they are never held accountable for the bullshit they come up with. It's become a easy way for people to game the stock and I'm sick of it .... I'm a investor ... I believe in the company and it's products and I'm sick to death of people fucking with this stock .... if the fundamentals and strength of this company are not worth investing in I can't think of a single investment on WS worth my money. Your post implies that you believe these people are listened to and actually have an impact on the stock price. I don't believe that to be true. When some of these analysts put notes out it moves the stock .... it's happened time and time again and unfortunately it really seems to work much better when they report negative news as the law of gravity is in effect. You have headlines from major investment houses talking about delays for products that aren't even announced yet ! I wish they had little effect but IMHO they do. Cheers to the longs ...
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 27, 2015 22:20:17 GMT -8
C'mon Tim, give us something to cheer about (and AAPL something to rally about) Monday morning.
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