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Post by wheeles on Oct 20, 2012 4:05:59 GMT -8
Stk Calls Puts 610 4,930 10,589 and my personal favorite, 750 39,595 6,764 It would appear that the EO's took a hit on the 610's with the 609.84 close, but didn't do all that bad - the 615+ retail call lemmings apparently did their usual death grip to the end. So huge net gain for EO's overall. Look at all those dead calls. Even on a day like Friday, the EO's win again. It's a shame we aren't able to see those numbers in real time. I'd have probably waited a little longer before getting my bull hat on. Nonetheless, next week is a whole new kettle of haddock. Unless the doo-doo really hits the fan over the weekend, then we should be in for a bounce, even if it's a one-day wonder. One other thing to note is that there was an awful lot of media going on and on and on about it being the 25th anniversary of the '87 crash as if they were willing it to happen once more. No doubt that impacted a few people's thinking and got them fearful of Monday open.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 20, 2012 5:41:05 GMT -8
Regarding TC. Obviously he isn't SJ and regardless of what we want, what we think he should be, it will never be the same as it was. It won't be bad, it will be different. Different isn't bad and a necessary change (evolution) of a company lifecycle. When you have a rapidly changing market place it is important to have a CEO that recognizes this (see Steve Balmer and John Chambers for CEOs that don't do this and the effects). Unfortunately SJ left us on a high for his company and his career. We all know he didn't get it right all the time but in the past few years he was. TC is an operations guy. We all throw numbers of 12mil, 59mil, 100mil phones like they are casino chips. I would ask you to reflect for a moment and think about 1 million phones. Myself the most iphones I have seen in boxes in one place is about 150. I cannot even imagine looking at 100,000 let alone 1mil of them. Next I would ask you to think about the level of coordination and effort it takes to get the component to make these phones, put them together with a level of quality, and for me this is the amazing part; getting all those phones shipped on-time and delivered to the right location whether that be an individual at home or 250 for a store. In the past I have had to ship stuff via UPS/FedEx but the most I have ever had to ship was about 9 boxes. Many of my shipments were late or a box was lost etc. So with TC I would ask you to remember he is probably the right guy for the company at the right time. SJ certainly would have failed in operations but that's okay, he played his role. My point is our expectations often lead us to take things of the past for granted and always expect it in the future. However for Apple to do arguably the most important things we expect it do do in the future (move increasing numbers of product in a given time) it must change and I think TC given his demonstrated skill set has proved he is the right guy for what is needed now. Thanks for reading and would ask any of you if you hear about how bad TC is compared to SJ perhaps you might tactfully remind that person of the scale of what is actually being managed: SUCCESSFULLY.
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Post by flyonthewall on Oct 20, 2012 5:57:31 GMT -8
Regarding TC. Obviously he isn't SJ and regardless of what we want, what we think he should be, it will never be the same as it was. It won't be bad, it will be different. Different isn't bad and a necessary change (evolution) of a company lifecycle. When you have a rapidly changing market place it is important to have a CEO that recognizes this (see Steve Balmer and John Chambers for CEOs that don't do this and the effects). Unfortunately SJ left us on a high for his company and his career. We all know he didn't get it right all the time but in the past few years he was. TC is an operations guy. We all throw numbers of 12mil, 59mil, 100mil phones like they are casino chips. I would ask you to reflect for a moment and think about 1 million phones. Myself the most iphones I have seen in boxes in one place is about 150. I cannot even imagine looking at 100,000 let alone 1mil of them. Next I would ask you to think about the level of coordination and effort it takes to get the component to make these phones, put them together with a level of quality, and for me this is the amazing part; getting all those phones shipped on-time and delivered to the right location whether that be an individual at home or 250 for a store. In the past I have had to ship stuff via UPS/FedEx but the most I have ever had to ship was about 9 boxes. Many of my shipments were late or a box was lost etc. So with TC I would ask you to remember he is probably the right guy for the company at the right time. SJ certainly would have failed in operations but that's okay, he played his role. My point is our expectations often lead us to take things of the past for granted and always expect it in the future. However for Apple to do arguably the most important things we expect it do do in the future (move increasing numbers of product in a given time) it must change and I think TC given his demonstrated skill set has proved he is the right guy for what is needed now. Thanks for reading and would ask any of you if you hear about how bad TC is compared to SJ perhaps you might tactfully remind that person of the scale of what is actually being managed: SUCCESSFULLY. Thank you for such a well reasoned editorial about TC and the state of Apple. There is no question in my mind that TC and his staff are doing a monumentally fantastic job of steering our AAPL behemoth towards a future compatible with what SJ had hoped for, while still allowing them to make their own imprint on its future. I salute their efforts and marvel at what they are accomplishing.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 20, 2012 6:25:22 GMT -8
If anyone subscribes to Zaky - Nansen - or any of the others, please share their weekend thoughts with the rest of the group. If you see anything from Redler, the same (although I follow him and he hasn't done anything conclusive over the weekend yet.)
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 20, 2012 6:39:18 GMT -8
I there. Another old time reader, decided to register and post for the first time... Still learning, but I hope I can learn faster if I ask questions from time to time, and who knows in a while someone might learn a thing or two from my posts.. I think Mav is saying what we will hear all week, this is the new "gate" or other wtf terms that will be used to shake Appl further. PS: English is not my native language, please forgive some not good enough sentences. Welcome tofdriver.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 20, 2012 6:49:11 GMT -8
One other thing to note is that there was an awful lot of media going on and on and on about it being the 25th anniversary of the '87 crash as if they were willing it to happen once more. No doubt that impacted a few people's thinking and got them fearful of Monday open. The anniversary of the crash was yesterday the 19th, My dad and new pup's Birthday. Dad passed 8 years ago so yesterday sucked all the way around. The dog got some new treats so it was good for him I guess. He just does not realize that he is going to be pimped out soon. Gotta make some money somehow. I told Tammy she may have to hook while I am playing golf next weekend. yeah, I know, I'm a bad guy.
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Post by jcaron on Oct 20, 2012 6:58:13 GMT -8
I know what you mean Mav, I remember when they stopped putting cassette players in cars in favor of the new tech of CD's. I have not bought a new car since that time so that I can still enjoy all of my old cassettes It does make very good sense, it's just that some of us 20+ million Limited Edition™ iPad owners might grumble a bit about still having to switch out Lightning and Dock Connector cables. I know, such a terrible situation.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 20, 2012 7:14:59 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 20, 2012 7:32:26 GMT -8
The NEW iPod Touch now ships in 5-7 days.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 20, 2012 7:33:33 GMT -8
I know what you mean Mav, I remember when they stopped putting cassette players in cars in favor of the new tech of CD's. I have not bought a new car since that time so that I can still enjoy all of my old cassettes It does make very good sense, it's just that some of us 20+ million Limited Edition™ iPad owners might grumble a bit about still having to switch out Lightning and Dock Connector cables. I know, such a terrible situation. Well I did my bit for the this qtr. 6 lightning connectors arrived from Apple via Fedex. Not sure if its age but I think I am pretty tolerant; except when it comes to looking for cables... I threw one in each car, a few around the house and leave one in a drawer just in case. interesting and not sure if there is some message here but I had to sign for them. I can see signing for a phone or a laptop, but cables?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 20, 2012 7:35:55 GMT -8
I know what you mean Mav, I remember when they stopped putting cassette players in cars in favor of the new tech of CD's. I have not bought a new car since that time so that I can still enjoy all of my old cassettes It does make very good sense, it's just that some of us 20+ million Limited Edition™ iPad owners might grumble a bit about still having to switch out Lightning and Dock Connector cables. I know, such a terrible situation. note to self: check CD player in car. either make CD's or find out about iPod connector.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 20, 2012 7:42:01 GMT -8
Well I did my bit for the this qtr. 6 lightning connectors arrived from Apple via Fedex. Not sure if its age but I think I am pretty tolerant; except when it comes to looking for cables... I threw one in each car, a few around the house and leave one in a drawer just in case. interesting and not sure if there is some message here but I had to sign for them. I can see signing for a phone or a laptop, but cables? On behalf of all the Apple shareholders, I thank you for MULTIPLE purchases of this highly profitable item. I can't wait until lightning connectors are a line item in the 10-Q ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 8:09:23 GMT -8
I there. Another old time reader, decided to register and post for the first time... Still learning, but I hope I can learn faster if I ask questions from time to time, and who knows in a while someone might learn a thing or two from my posts.. I think Mav is saying what we will hear all week, this is the new "gate" or other wtf terms that will be used to shake Appl further. PS: English is not my native language, please forgive some not good enough sentences. Welcome tofdriver. Did you post on AFB before? Actually, no, I'm being mostly sarcastic about current iPads switching to a new connector. There is no "gate" there IMHO though some will whine if it happens. And no, I don't see AAPL falling much further (for what little that opinion is worth). Burgess has a handy metric: 10x ttm EPS + cash as a reinforced floor, a level more or less as hard as diamond. How many companies even close to Apple's size grow as fast as it does? Have as much cash as AAPL does? And AAPL trades at a discount to the S&P market multiple?! Fundamentals have always stabilized AAPL in the recent past anyway. AAPL's valuation is downright cheap when comparing to time periods where valuations have been meaningful (AAPL was growing and running solid profits). AAPL now has a dividend program for crying out loud! If Apple announces earnings of around $9.40ish that'll reflect over 30% earnings growth for a middle-age megacap and will also reduce the multiple by over 5% in a single quarter. And this is the historically "blah" quarter. You can't get away with slapping a 13 multiple on numbers like that for long. Technicals-wise, crazy as it seems we are actually very close to key price levels. 585, 570. AAPL has sellers but it has an army of dip buyers. The buyers tend to win. Past is not prelude but the market is not yet completely out of its mind.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 8:20:08 GMT -8
Two words: GOOG spoiler. You could also say "broader market" but I'm starting to see why some say traders use tech as a bellwether. Sometimes I find Zaky a little bombastic, and yes, AAPL could fall farther, but the test is more like where AAPL is a year from now, not a week from now. Even if AAPL starts signaling 25% YOY growth that's more sustainable - what, give it an INTC multiple? If AAPL falls much more I would expect to see entire nations buying the dip.
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Post by jb1 on Oct 20, 2012 8:54:11 GMT -8
Wow, that was one heck of a week. Silver lining is that it ended a bit better as the margaritas were flowing, the Giants live to play another day, and the only losses I have are on paper.
Without dry powder or the nerve (or expertise ) to get into options, margin, or other trading schemes I sit on the sidelines with my common and wait for the turn-around.
Baseball is still going but it is also football season so I say...GO LONG!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 20, 2012 8:55:34 GMT -8
Allow me to repeat: NO PERSONAL ATTACKS
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 8:56:45 GMT -8
Nothing wrong with good ol' common stock! I got to my humble plateau with the help of shares after all. And yes for those who may be skeptical, I still have core common and have no plans to sell it even as rocket fuel for options. The great thing about dividend stocks - you get paid to wait! Kinda like being an iPhone line-sitter!
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Post by magictrackpad on Oct 20, 2012 9:33:23 GMT -8
You might be right that GOOG and some other disappointing results from other tech companies affected the market last week, but I'm still surprised that Apple took such a beating. It should have made AAPL look even stronger, compared to those other companies. Apple is nothing like Google. Google is basically an advertising company that also makes a second rate mobile OS. I don't see why Google reporting bad earnings would give any hint of what's happening with Apple. On the contrary, I believe that investors should start to move their money away from companies that rely on advertising revenue and put more money into the juggernaut that is Apple. The whole industry is going post-pc, and Apple is leading the charge. Also, Apple doesn't rely on any advertising dollars and Apple doesn't need to sell their hardware products at a loss in order to entice consumers to buy them. I hope that Apple has it's suppliers in Asia churning out iPad Mini's 24-7, because I believe that they're going to become a very hot christmas item this year, especially if Apple prices the entry level model at $249-$299.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 9:40:20 GMT -8
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 20, 2012 9:56:48 GMT -8
Apple is nothing like Google. Apple is a tech company; Google is a tech company; end of story as far as many naive investors are concerned. Of course your post is 100% correct, but that has nothing to do with what many investors believe.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 20, 2012 10:03:32 GMT -8
Apple is nothing like Google. Apple is a tech company; Google is a tech company; end of story as far as many naive investors are concerned. Of course your post is 100% correct, but that has nothing to do with what many investors believe. I think Horace and Eric said it all in a tweet:
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Post by joel90069 on Oct 20, 2012 10:11:29 GMT -8
I agree entirely. If starting price is more than $249, I think we have problems; unless there's some shockingly cool new feature.
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Post by Rupert on Oct 20, 2012 10:34:15 GMT -8
Ran across this chart which seems to put AAPL into a better perspective, iPad if this is in the wrong place, please move it.
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Post by Rupert on Oct 20, 2012 10:49:22 GMT -8
One more
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Post by aaplexcelsior on Oct 20, 2012 10:50:42 GMT -8
Ran across this chart which seems to put AAPL into a better perspective, iPad if this is in the wrong place, please move it. What a neat graph. I guess I could do the math but... what are the Q4and Q1 earnings estimates here?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 11:00:30 GMT -8
joel - er, we don't.
See instapundit reaction to iPod mini pricing. (Heck, I was puzzled.). See consumer response.
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Post by talphan on Oct 20, 2012 11:06:33 GMT -8
hello everyone, my name is talphan, and I am an AAPLholic. I'm a long-time lurker who finally decided to come out of the woodworks to join this wonderful community. I cut my teeth "investing" in ETOYS, saw my capital almost double, then disappear altogether. Returned to investing a few years ago, 95% w/ AAPL, since it was in the 60s, traded/invested through the years using common shares. Got destroyed in 08-09 but fortunately early in my investing career so the damage was somewhat limited. I just started w/ options this year, first jumping in head first & having my a-- handed to me when we dipped from 640s to 530s. 100 contracts didn't seem like much compared to shares... Fortunately, AAPL has been relatively tolerant of these newbie mistakes, and it goes without saying that I've since learned to nibble... This community has been a wonderful resource, not only re trading & investing, but also as a support group during these wtf sales. Anyhow, here's to AAPL back above 700s & beyond. talphan
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 20, 2012 11:13:57 GMT -8
Welcome talphan, especially your voice of experience thru tough times.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 20, 2012 11:20:57 GMT -8
Rupert, that's a great chart! Let's keep it here until next week, then I'll scoot it over to the technicals so we can easily access it for future reference.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 20, 2012 11:21:56 GMT -8
Welcome, talphan!!! I echo your sentiments about having a support group during WTF sales... I belong to a close-knit trading group (just about everyone originated from AFB1), and we've grown that much closer through all the times we've had our as*es handed to us -- individually and collectively -- mostly around Apple's earnings.
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