Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 19:43:22 GMT -8
Well, I'm not the most nimble trader out there by any means. And for those with some spare cash and Level 2 options trading, it's as easy as:
Buy Open >> AMZN >> puts >> enjoy the ride ;D (obviously not recommending this, it's just an idea you can take as free and worthless)
Price action will give us clues. But this isn't the weekend [EDIT: for me] to get anyone worried, IMHO. Can't trade on Saturday anyway.
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Post by macziggy on Oct 20, 2012 20:37:34 GMT -8
My favorite tweet from today from Blue_Horseshoe:
"@fitzstock2004: If $aapl does not indicate any "supply constraints" going into the holidays,,,,,,PPL who sold investment near 600, stay away from a bridge:)"
That's very funny. BTW he's a pretty good read during the day if you like Twitter
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 20, 2012 20:38:53 GMT -8
MZ, ROFL!!! I like Blue_Horseshoe a lot -- thumbs up from me!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 20:46:44 GMT -8
Blue_Huh?!
More info, please. Always on the lookout for good/funny market commentary.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 20, 2012 20:51:48 GMT -8
Go here: stocktwits.com/FITZSTOCK2004This was his follow-up to MZ's quote: ".......there will be diarrhea of $AAPL opinions coming this week........DO NOT TRADE THEM..........only TRADE PRICE"
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 20:58:14 GMT -8
Oh yeah, him! I'll start tracking again. (Sorry, couldn't wait for the price on this one. So I guess that makes me a raging idiot. )
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Post by tofdriver on Oct 20, 2012 22:43:04 GMT -8
Did you post on AFB before? Actually, no, I'm being mostly sarcastic about current iPads switching to a new connector. There is no "gate" there IMHO though some will whine if it happens. And no, I don't see AAPL falling much further (for what little that opinion is worth). Burgess has a handy metric: 10x ttm EPS + cash as a reinforced floor, a level more or less as hard as diamond. Thanks for your detailed answer. This is my first post. I'm am deeply convinced of the fact that AAPL has a great future, just a bit puzzled by the fud since iPhone 5 launch. Took me long to answer, I'm in European time zone. By the way 10 ttm + cash would amount to what? On my iPhone right now, don't have the numbers at hand
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Post by tofdriver on Oct 20, 2012 22:52:05 GMT -8
Thank you. Glad I' m here with this community.
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Post by macziggy on Oct 21, 2012 0:45:52 GMT -8
Blue_Huh?! More info, please. Always on the lookout for good/funny market commentary. Hey Mav...He's mostly a swing trader/day trader. He's the best that I've found to read on Twitter on a daily basis. He tweets about 10-20 things/day. His philosophy is to let the momentum swing, then buy for the ride up. He looks for AAPL to rise above the 10 SMA and is not looking for "the bottom." He's technical. He's in cash right now. I think he's as genuine as anyone on Twitter. I don't always agree with him, but I like the way he puts out his ideas. He always gives support and explanation. He's not an AAPL fanboy (although...secretly...he is!...wink..wink).
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Post by bick on Oct 21, 2012 1:30:12 GMT -8
Scotch for me, maybe some JW Blue Label I got a bottle sitting around. I posted this in the Friday thread just wanted to reiterate (mostly for some reassurance ) I currently have 123 shares. Plan is to sell 23 of them on Monday and roll them into Feb 13 625-650 BCS. If AAPL trades for 653 by February it's a 153% return. My first option trade, wish me luck. Feb 14 is my bday, hopefully I will receive a nice present. If not I'll be enjoying some wild turkey instead of Blue Label : ) Before you sell your 23 shares, understand that options are a cash trade with nightly settlement. You may not be able to use your common proceeds to buy options until end of week. In the meantime, AAPL on Monday capitulates, you sell at the low, you can't buy your call spread, and AAPL then moves higher by 30 points on the mini event and another 50 on earnings while your money is tied up. Make inquiries.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 21, 2012 4:18:22 GMT -8
Busy week ahead. Tuesday and Thursday are Apple Events. Wednesday is T day. AT&T to Release Third-Quarter 2012 Earnings October 24 Dallas, Texas, September 24, 2012 ShareThis AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) announced today that the company’s third-quarter 2012 financial results will be released Wednesday, October 24, 2012. The company’s earnings release, Investor Briefing and related materials will be available on AT&T’s website at AT&T Investor Relations by 8 a.m. ET. At 9 a.m. ET the same day, AT&T will host a conference call to discuss the results. The company will broadcast a live webcast of the call at AT&T Investor Relations, and the webcast will be available for replay at the same address. www.att.com/gen/press-room?pid=23387&cdvn=news&newsarticleid=35408&mapcode=corporate|financial
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Post by tofdriver on Oct 21, 2012 6:35:39 GMT -8
And no, I don't see AAPL falling much further (for what little that opinion is worth). Burgess has a handy metric: 10x ttm EPS + cash as a reinforced floor, a level more or less as hard as diamond. running the numbers this floor would be at 10x42+ more or less 122 meaning 540-ish, am I wrong??
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 6:44:07 GMT -8
And no, I don't see AAPL falling much further (for what little that opinion is worth). Burgess has a handy metric: 10x ttm EPS + cash as a reinforced floor, a level more or less as hard as diamond. running the numbers this floor would be at 10x42+ more or less 122 meaning 540-ish, am I wrong?? I would like to see some long term analysis on this metric. I am with you Tofdriver, scary stuff
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Post by roni on Oct 21, 2012 8:42:37 GMT -8
How about a little investing/trading self-introduction? Really simple - how long have you been at it? Stocks, options? Have you focused on AAPL? No need for any sense of scale or portfolio amount whatsoever. That way we can get a quick baseline. As for me, I've been at this for well over 10 years, and have been much more active in the past 5 than the first 5. I first bought equities in 1994. Small accounts. Highest end of month balance pre-2008 crash was about $55,000. Jan 2009 it was a lot lower. Up 133% in 2009, 81% in 2010, 2% in 2011 and 238% YTD for 2012 as of Friday's close. Also, as of Friday's close, 36.4% of these portfolios are in 15 dividend stocks. AAPL is an equal weight position in that part of the portfolio. Four percent is in cash and the rest is in Jan 2014, 2015 and April 2013 calls. I hope we are at or near a bottom
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Post by Rupert on Oct 21, 2012 9:10:50 GMT -8
Nick Nansen Says....
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Post by roni on Oct 21, 2012 9:34:30 GMT -8
My public projection for Q4 is in line with Nick's, but the projection I make for my investment purposes is less than that. I see FY 2012 earnings of 45.25 - 45.50 after Q4 is reported.
My early number for Q1 2013 is $18.50 a share in earnings, but this has not been looked at for a long time. It would put TTM earnings at around $50 after Q1's report. Pick your TTM P/E ratio and run with it (or away from it)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 9:45:26 GMT -8
Still not convinced of $10+ EPS.
Need at least AT&T data for a feasibility check though I'm not likely to move my numbers up much if at all. The tremendous unknown is how well the 4S and co. held up the first 8-9 weeks of the quarter, a quarter full of iPhone 5 rumors and supply chain leaks.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 21, 2012 12:07:18 GMT -8
If this is posted on another thread - please re-direct me there but was is the latest on: Street consensus for Q4 and someone refresh my memory on what the company guided
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 12:20:33 GMT -8
If this is posted on another thread - please re-direct me there but was is the latest on: Street consensus for Q4 and someone refresh my memory on what the company guided Apple guided $7,65. The consensus is just under $9 the last time I looked on Yahoo. Whisper is over $10.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 12:29:24 GMT -8
For future reference -
Yahoo! Finance is one place to look for consensus estimates - also Thomson First Call.
Guidance - see Apple Investor Relations - Oppenheimer's remarks after every quarterly release. More detailed guidance - in the CC itself, Morningstar transcripts seem to be pretty accurate
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 21, 2012 12:41:22 GMT -8
If this is posted on another thread - please re-direct me there but was is the latest on: Street consensus for Q4 and someone refresh my memory on what the company guided Apple guided $7,65. The consensus is just under $9 the last time I looked on Yahoo. Whisper is over $10. Except for last quarter, the lowest EPS sandbag factor of the past 2.5 years are is 1.28, 1.31 and 1.34, 1.35. 1.28 gives 9.79.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 21, 2012 12:46:57 GMT -8
Thanks fellas - appreciate it.
In the meantime - been watching Twitter and Stocktwits and see no bulls left on AAPL. Everyone predicting 580 then 560...and some saying below 560. Some are suggesting (Fitz) that with no bulls left this must be the end (capitulation) which is in sight. No matter, it is hugely painful only because I continue to try to rationalize it and can't seem to. Market trading on pure emotion now.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 21, 2012 12:58:54 GMT -8
IMHO, WAG: within two days and no lower than daily SMA-200.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 13:07:39 GMT -8
That was my thinking, maybe even as soon as Monday. If there's something distinctive about AAPL's price action, it's friggin' "violent". But it's practically a law of physics that it works both ways and that there is a line significantly above zero that AAPL will not cross. I'm looking for reversal signs as soon as around market open. AAPL at anywhere close to 605 might trigger inverse H&S "buying" (there's also some amount of support in the 600-610 zone from July, if I'm reading the charts right), and if not, we look to 580-585 (200-day) if only because that's where a bunch of level-watchers are also looking. I'm not aware of any other big support levels nearby, which is "OK" (note the quotes) because of how damn quickly AAPL is falling anyway, and how close AAPL already is to 580-585. Of course, levels are only points of reference and anything can happen at any time. That's part of why I went DAMN THE TORPEDOES on Friday and ran towards the selloff at my own peril (I'm sure pro traders like the T3 guys would be shaking their heads right now.)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 13:11:07 GMT -8
Apple guided $7,65. The consensus is just under $9 the last time I looked on Yahoo. Whisper is over $10. Except for last quarter, the lowest EPS sandbag factor of the past 2.5 years are is 1.28, 1.31 and 1.34, 1.35. 1.28 gives 9.79. Well, add in that sandbag factor for the last quarter. I wouldn't count it out as an outlier. Hey, does anyone remember what Tim and Co. said about iPad for fiscal Q4? It's one of those CCs I _didn't_ really listen to, but maybe I should.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 21, 2012 13:49:51 GMT -8
I find myself reflecting on June 21st 2011. The summer solstice. Apple had been suffering a drop for a cpuple of weeks for no good reason. it dropped below its 200 day SMA, touching 309, closed at 315.
The sky was falling. Lifeboats over the side (women and children were not first!). The bears were ascendant because, and this is important, there was no palpable reason for the weakness, so it had to be a systemic failure of the Apple business model. This mysterious failure was known to the wise, who could read the tea leaves. The uninitiated had to sweat in a FUD-induced paroxysm of indecision.
When the 200 day broke, many bailed. The ship was surely sinking- somebody knew something! 309!!
Three weeks later we were at 400
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 13:52:34 GMT -8
Good perspective, Ensign.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 21, 2012 13:57:19 GMT -8
...(I'm sure pro traders like the T3 guys would be shaking their heads right now.)... Please forgive my ignorance, but who are the T3 guys?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 14:04:07 GMT -8
T3Live, a NY-based outfit. They have some free stuff, they're intermediate trend technical traders. Some of us check in on their free content, not a recommendation, etc. iPad and RG are more familiar with them than I am.
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Post by magictrackpad on Oct 21, 2012 14:10:04 GMT -8
This coming week will sure be interesting. I could be wrong about this, but I don't remember a major new Apple event w/numerous new product releases and quarterly earnings both happening on the same week within a few days of each other.
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