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Post by davidcv100 on Oct 21, 2012 18:17:08 GMT -8
FWIW and I do not have access to Goldman Sachs aapl notes so can't confirm this, but the Twitter aapl news/rumor is that GS has positive aapl note out for tomorrow . . .
Marc Lehman (@markflowchatter)10/21/12, 8:57 PM Goldman Sachs has a + $AAPL note out for t2mrw, reit $810 tgt,oversold, says " Guidance should be below consensus, but better than feared." [/b]
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 18:19:16 GMT -8
Mav, you have to read more. He put it out there himself the other day that he battles being full of himself. Bottom line, why delete a post that just asks simple questions about estimates.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 18:19:51 GMT -8
Yeah, I figure now is around the time you'll start hearing some analysts start pounding the table. Not that surprising if you think about the severity of this pullback.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 18:24:15 GMT -8
Mav, you have to read more. He put it out there himself the other day that he battles being full of himself. Bottom line, why delete a post that just asks simple questions about estimates. MB, don't assume. I read that article and mentioned it on the board a few days back: nanseninvestments.com/2012/10/13/the-process-of-change/I know at this point people must be thinking I'm a Nansen hater, but I do think it fair comment to point out that trading AAPL hasn't been all that "predictable" since at least October 2011, if we're looking at the uptrend since early 2009 or so. If anything, it's been a bumpier ride the longer the uptrend has gone on.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 18:25:00 GMT -8
FWIW and I do not have access to Goldman Sachs aapl notes so can't confirm this, but the Twitter aapl news/rumor is that GS has positive aapl note out for tomorrow . . . Marc Lehman (@markflowchatter)10/21/12, 8:57 PM Goldman Sachs has a + $AAPL note out for t2mrw, reit $810 tgt,oversold, says " Guidance should be below consensus, but better than feared."[/b] [/quote] Bend me over again GS. Just a note to give it a little bump before the final push down. This is what I am talking about. Guidance is everything and even though the consensus is $15, everyone and their brother knows it won't be anywhere near that. ($12-13)
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 21, 2012 18:39:21 GMT -8
Np Nate... Its not easy to compose words the way we want to sound.
Now what the H is that GS note about. More Katy Huberty ? Talking out of both sides of their mouth ?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 18:41:09 GMT -8
Huberty's with Morgan Stanley last I checked.
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 18:43:51 GMT -8
I'd say Wall Street is expecting a sandbag giveaway on Thursday. 14-week quarter vs. 13-week quarter. One of those weeks an incredibly overheated one with astounding sales. Some explanation from Oppenheimer about how the two periods would make very poor compares.
But yeah, I'd non-advise advise caution myself.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 21, 2012 18:54:33 GMT -8
(...)I do think it fair comment to point out that trading AAPL hasn't been all that "predictable" since at least October 2011, if we're looking at the uptrend since early 2009 or so. If anything, it's been a bumpier ride the longer the uptrend has gone on. For sure! I remember last year we would talk about how when we finally figured out the pattern, when it became that obvious, the pattern would change. This year has felt to me like a deliberate changing of the pattern. Let's rally nearly 300 points non-stop, then tank right before earnings. Let's rally nearly 135 points after MISSING (so that's what we were doing wrong all this time?? We should miss more often??) then tank yet again right before earnings. Predictably unpredictable!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 18:57:21 GMT -8
Hmm...running some early, conservative-ish numbers for fiscal Q1 and comparing WS expectations ($54.76B revs, $15.43 EPS)...yeah...I'll try and find a way to keep market exposure down a bit before earnings.
The guidance game really does seem to have an extra element of danger about it, even though WS is "used" to the sandbagging by Oppenheimer. That 14-week vs. 13-week distinction might not sink in right away.
Just my uneducated opinion. Do your own due diligence (DYODDâ„¢) and all the rest.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 21, 2012 18:58:47 GMT -8
JPM was touting a note last week - they are all doing it. They imbed an option or an option spread with a zero coupon bond and then sell it to the public in a note and take out some obscene spread. Usually these things get waltzed out when vol is pumped....after all, we may be muppets but they are the true Miss Piggy!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 19:01:22 GMT -8
OK, you're gonna have to explain everything after the first sentence. I get the EO part, but not the rest.
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 19:06:48 GMT -8
Btw, while I was puzzling over my early fiscal Q1 projections - seems that "skimming strategy" Horace Dediu's referred to, if there ever was one, is ending. And that's not a bad thing.
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Post by chasmac on Oct 21, 2012 19:12:39 GMT -8
Btw, while I was puzzling over my early fiscal Q1 projections - seems that "skimming strategy" Horace Dediu's referred to, if there ever was one, is ending. And that's not a bad thing. 'Splain please...
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Post by Xphilos on Oct 21, 2012 19:25:11 GMT -8
April earnings report was 12.30 eps vs. the consensus estimate of 10.03 (earnings beat). Share price dropped about 100 points. July earnings report was 9.32 vs. the consensus estimate of 10.35 (earnings miss). Share price went up about 125 points. So many other factors affect the earnings reaction that I've given up on pinning any hopes or money on it. The only thing I really count on is the long-term company performance trend of growth and increased revenue, reflecting in the long-term increase in stock price.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 19:32:39 GMT -8
Btw, while I was puzzling over my early fiscal Q1 projections - seems that "skimming strategy" Horace Dediu's referred to, if there ever was one, is ending. And that's not a bad thing. 'Splain please... "ASP"s have been drifting lower lately, iPad especially. (iPhone 5 might reverse this for a while because of all the cables and adapters.) iPad "ASP" will take a significant hit thanks to iPad mini (well under $500, I bet) but Apple won't be feeling any pain. And if iPhone 5 continues to be a strong seller in its second year of production, even the 4S as one heck of a $0 phone in Sep. 2013, I doubt Apple will much mind. It's Apple's version of a go for volume play. But the table's been set up for this for a while now. Gotta love it.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 21, 2012 19:36:02 GMT -8
Nasdaq is greener.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 21, 2012 19:36:16 GMT -8
FWIW and I do not have access to Goldman Sachs aapl notes so can't confirm this, but the Twitter aapl news/rumor is that GS has positive aapl note out for tomorrow . . . Marc Lehman (@markflowchatter)10/21/12, 8:57 PM Goldman Sachs has a + $AAPL note out for t2mrw, reit $810 tgt,oversold, says " Guidance should be below consensus, but better than feared."[/b] [/quote] Call me superstitious, but when Goldman Sachs says anything positive or quasi-positive about AAPL (the $810 target in this case), I get scared.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 19:36:57 GMT -8
April earnings report was 12.30 eps vs. the consensus estimate of 10.03 (earnings beat). Share price dropped about 100 points. July earnings report was 9.32 vs. the consensus estimate of 10.35 (earnings miss). Share price went up about 125 points. So many other factors affect the earnings reaction that I've given up on pinning any hopes or money on it. The only thing I really count on is the long-term company performance trend of growth and increased revenue, reflecting in the long-term increase in stock price. Yes and no. In April it jumped after earnings before continuing its downward trend. In July the first reaction for 3 days was down dramatically.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 21, 2012 19:38:07 GMT -8
The Goldman note was posted previously and I can't make out exactly what they mean. Oversold but guidance should be below consensus ? Better than feared ?
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 19:40:53 GMT -8
The Goldman note was posted previously and I can't make out exactly what they mean. Oversold but guidance should be below consensus ? Better than feared ? WS consensus is 15, everyone knows (should) Apple will not come close to this. Better than feared, 12-13 instead of the feared 11. Oversold being our technical position. All clear, or clear as mud. ;D
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 19:57:47 GMT -8
Just to be consistent. The post in question on Nicks site is now viewable. It went from moderation, to gone, then viewable. Not sure what happened, but it makes me feel much better seeing that it is up. Respect restored.
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Post by Xphilos on Oct 21, 2012 20:02:16 GMT -8
April earnings report was 12.30 eps vs. the consensus estimate of 10.03 (earnings beat). Share price dropped about 100 points. July earnings report was 9.32 vs. the consensus estimate of 10.35 (earnings miss). Share price went up about 125 points. So many other factors affect the earnings reaction that I've given up on pinning any hopes or money on it. The only thing I really count on is the long-term company performance trend of growth and increased revenue, reflecting in the long-term increase in stock price. Yes and no. In April it jumped after earnings before continuing its downward trend. In July the first reaction for 3 days was down dramatically. In a very practical sense, those few days of "expected" reaction hardly mattered. If someone saw that earnings beat and bought calls, they were in for some very painful weeks. Same with puts and the earnings miss, except for a very narrow time frame.
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Post by johng on Oct 21, 2012 20:48:29 GMT -8
My public projection for Q4 is in line with Nick's, but the projection I make for my investment purposes is less than that. I see FY 2012 earnings of 45.25 - 45.50 after Q4 is reported. My early number for Q1 2013 is $18.50 a share in earnings, but this has not been looked at for a long time. It would put TTM earnings at around $50 after Q1's report. Pick your TTM P/E ratio and run with it (or away from it) I'm pretty close to your #'s........... $45 ttm. Not sure about Q1 yet as I need to see what Apple says about ip5 productions issues. cheers JohnG
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Post by tofdriver on Oct 21, 2012 23:04:54 GMT -8
Nasdaq is greener. love the picture!
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Post by tofdriver on Oct 21, 2012 23:12:30 GMT -8
"ASP"s have been drifting lower lately, iPad especially. (iPhone 5 might reverse this for a while because of all the cables and adapters.) iPad "ASP" will take a significant hit thanks to iPad mini (well under $500, I bet) but Apple won't be feeling any pain. And if iPhone 5 continues to be a strong seller in its second year of production, even the 4S as one heck of a $0 phone in Sep. 2013, I doubt Apple will much mind. It's Apple's version of a go for volume play. But the table's been set up for this for a while now. Gotta love it. While I agree it seems there is no skimming strategy for iPad, there is still one for iPhone... No special model for price sensitive market yet.. Just a feel old 28 month old not that cheap one. New one is pure jewelry. Not something you would give to your kid. I so hope this is because Apple already have an idea for disrupting the iPhone in the lab, hence milking it as long as it can before introducing the disruptive device, which would be at first, as the theory goes, not good enough but cheap. That would mean in Apple mind, tablets won't be disrupted, but smartphone will be. Wearable computing? Smartwatch?
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Post by tofdriver on Oct 21, 2012 23:17:19 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Oct 22, 2012 1:29:48 GMT -8
It's not really that last part - seems some people do feel like the pros are "watching over" their numbers, though I disagree due to the massive variance in estimates. It's that whole section. I find it quite amazing that any retail investors (as that's what we are, including anyone that sets up a blog with the word "investments" in the title to make them sound like some sort of analyst) feel so paranoid. Wall Street are not watching you. They don't give a crap about you. They only start to take notice if you are swinging a few billion around in a stock, especially with one that has as large a market cap as Apple. There is an astounding sense of self-importance that some people in the Apple investing community have simply because they happened to buy and do well by buying a company that has been on a terrific run. I'd be far more impressed by someone that regularly makes money from a stock that does not frequently chalk up new highs, or has been in the doldrums for years. Please don't take this the wrong way, but there is a saying: Any fool can make money in a rising market. And another one: Don't confuse brains with a bull market. The success of some folk in the AAPL investing community has clearly gone to their heads.
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Post by Big Al on Oct 22, 2012 2:20:04 GMT -8
Yes and no. In April it jumped after earnings before continuing its downward trend. In July the first reaction for 3 days was down dramatically. In a very practical sense, those few days of "expected" reaction hardly mattered. If someone saw that earnings beat and bought calls, they were in for some very painful weeks. Same with puts and the earnings miss, except for a very narrow time frame. Those two earnings led to two different P/Es, and more importantly, to two very different reactions on the first day after earnings. In April the PE before earnings was 16 and decreased after earnings was announced to 13.7. The stock price jumped immediately and closed at $610 the day after earnings, which led to a PE of 14.7. The next few weeks the stock went down to $530 (PE of 12.7). In July the PE before earnings was 14.7 and decreased after earnings was announced to 14.1. The stock price fell immediately and closed at $575 the day after earnings, which led to a PE of 13.5. The next few weeks the stock went up all the way to $702 (PE of 16.5) before falling again. So I think the reason for the stock increase/decrease right after the announcement has nothing to do whether Apple missed or exceeded expectations. I rather think that the change in PE was the reason for the (violent) moves right after the announcement and the weeks thereafter.
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