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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 22, 2012 3:12:12 GMT -8
Buckle up...
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Post by rob_london on Oct 22, 2012 3:15:42 GMT -8
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Oct 22, 2012 3:16:18 GMT -8
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 22, 2012 3:35:51 GMT -8
if GS suggest Straddle it simply means they think share would fluctuate either direction by more than 5%. That does not mean share would only going single direction to the low, it might be to the high side. GS only suggest making money from volatility, anyway GS reiterate a buy recommendation.Is that a bad news?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 22, 2012 3:40:30 GMT -8
I'd be more inclined to see it as a sell signal if we were 100 points higher. I'm always suspicious of bullish calls well into a bull run.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 22, 2012 3:41:52 GMT -8
if GS suggest Straddle it simply means they think share would fluctuate either direction by more than 5%. That does not mean share would only going single direction to the low, it might be to the high side. GS only suggest making money from volatility, anyway GS reiterate a buy recommendation.Is that a bad news? IMHO, if GS suggests buying volatility, it's because they're selling volatility. And that volatility will collapse by the end of this week.
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Post by blofeld on Oct 22, 2012 3:42:13 GMT -8
GS has a reputation for saying one thing in public, and another in private... anyone who thinks of their own clients as "muppets" is not to be trusted.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 22, 2012 3:44:49 GMT -8
GS have a habit of keeping people guessing. Not all their calls should be faded. Sometimes the calls are very much in line with their own positions. I've often said that GS use their calls to either get out of a position, or to give an existing position a shove in the right direction. As is always the case, use your own judgement not the advice of someone who likes to herd their clients like sheep, invariably for their own benefit. Best to look where the price is relative to some sort of measure of the recent range (say, daily Bollingers), and then decide whether GS are looking to get out of something, or give a new position a boost. If they are pumping something at the top of a recent range, then they are probably getting out. If they are pumping at the bottom of a range, then they are probably back in.
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Post by rob_london on Oct 22, 2012 3:46:04 GMT -8
I suspect it's going to be a very turbulent ride all week
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Post by wheeles on Oct 22, 2012 3:48:15 GMT -8
IMHO, if GS suggests buying volatility, it's because they're selling volatility. And that volatility will collapse by the end of this week. Reading between the lines, volatility tends to go up when price goes down, and down when the price goes up. If they are selling volatility, then they expect the price to rise. As I said before, AAPL is at the bottom of its recent range, so GS are probably long AAPL and selling volatility.
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Post by blofeld on Oct 22, 2012 4:06:27 GMT -8
Looking at GS trading performance (and that of hedge funds), I am not sure they have much of an inside track... [though if Big Bird is right, I hope that they will be]
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Post by rob_london on Oct 22, 2012 4:11:43 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 22, 2012 4:23:40 GMT -8
Wheeles and iPad are SPOT ON. The bet Goldman is making is that vol comes in. They imbed the vol in a note - clients buy - and it collapses. But even before they do that they take some vol and pocket that too so for example - I don't know which note they have but they may say that they will give you 100% principal protection and 65% of the upside of where aapl is on a certain date. In the meantime they are able to buy calls/call spreads that would get you 75%...but they pocket that and don't offer it to you. As a customer you are happy to get something principally protected and have no clue how to use options or option spreads so you are happy to buy it not knowing just how much of an opportunity cost you are paying Jim Henson, the muppet master -- that is what I think they are doing. Wheeles and iPad as I said are spot on!
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 22, 2012 4:36:44 GMT -8
Is someone seeing blocks of aapl in pre-market? Other streams are suggesting that someone is scrambling to cover shorts here. I have no clue nor do I see it. Does anyone see this?
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Post by Rupert on Oct 22, 2012 4:44:59 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Monday 10/22/2012
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 22, 2012 5:02:54 GMT -8
Well - and just like that - we are red
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Oct 22, 2012 5:10:02 GMT -8
Wheeles and iPad are SPOT ON. The bet Goldman is making is that vol comes in. They imbed the vol in a note - clients buy - and it collapses. But even before they do that they take some vol and pocket that too so for example - I don't know which note they have but they may say that they will give you 100% principal protection and 65% of the upside of where aapl is on a certain date. In the meantime they are able to buy calls/call spreads that would get you 75%...but they pocket that and don't offer it to you. As a customer you are happy to get something principally protected and have no clue how to use options or option spreads so you are happy to buy it not knowing just how much of an opportunity cost you are paying Jim Henson, the muppet master -- that is what I think they are doing. Wheeles and iPad as I said are spot on! +1....A friend of mine was made a similar offer and guarantee from another investment house that he has his retirement money with within the past month. I'm not sure but I think he's with JPM.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 22, 2012 5:13:57 GMT -8
Here is the problem - which other than the fees that they take from you - you have counterparty risk to that investment house. During the 2008 mayhem...these people were not standing up to bids and in some cases raping you to get out (that's even if they would bid you at all!). With all the crap going on in this market - I would NEVER take any of these banks as counterparties. They become the roach motel. I think it's not a good thing...but that's just me.
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 22, 2012 5:20:47 GMT -8
If there's a stupid drop again today, I'll load up yet again because this 'might' be the last of these drops. Of course one more load up will be IF Apple falls further after earnings. Then I bet it'll be a repeat of the previous earnings scenario when AAPL dropped for a couple of days and then it was "wheeeee" time.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 22, 2012 5:23:04 GMT -8
If there's a stupid drop again today, I'll load up yet again because this 'might' be the last of these drops. Of course one more load up will be IF Apple falls further after earnings. Then I bet it'll be a repeat of the previous earnings scenario when AAPL dropped for a couple of days and then it was "wheeeee" time. No guarantees, but you may get that at the open. Personally, I am long and now just sitting tight.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 22, 2012 5:32:20 GMT -8
THIS JUST IN: My TOS screen shows a MMM (Market Maker Move) of 33.6 for AAPL TODAY. The volatility of THIS weeks weeklys is 66.56%
These two barometers are the highest I have ever seen for AAPL
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Post by wheeles on Oct 22, 2012 5:34:38 GMT -8
THIS JUST IN: My TOS screen shows a MMM (Market Maker Move) of 33.6 for AAPL TODAY. The volatility of THIS weeks weeklys is 66.56% These two barometers are the highest I have ever seen for AAPL How do you see a MMM?
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Post by moltenfire on Oct 22, 2012 5:35:08 GMT -8
The volatility I can see being up as a result of two AAPL news events. What does MMM mean?
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 22, 2012 5:57:45 GMT -8
mediaserver.thinkorswim.com/notices/Release_021911.htmlThe MMM is shown on the trade tab/ all products. Market Maker Move is a measure of the expected magnitude of price movement based on market volatility. We arrive at this calculation by using stock price, volatility differential, and time to expiration. It helps to identify the implied move due to an event between now and the front month expiration (if an event exists).
The filter is based on Volatility differential. If the differential is positive the MMM will be displayed. If negative, it will not. In other words, if the near term expiration has greater volatility than the back month, the MMM value will show.
If there is a big risk event (such as earnings) that is coming up soon, the front month March should have higher volatility than April and then you would see MMM.THIS was just meant as an observation. I sometimes use my posts to state the obvious. That way I can check back to see if the observation itself was worthwhile.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 22, 2012 5:59:06 GMT -8
The observation of the MMM AT the opening appears correct. The stock jumped +$10 after a few minutes.
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Post by stevereel on Oct 22, 2012 6:01:31 GMT -8
Thanks Artman, I hadn't seen mmm before.
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 22, 2012 6:03:57 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Oct 22, 2012 6:07:27 GMT -8
My projection for share price from Thursday until January earnings based on a 9.50 EPS (44.99 TTM), $130.50 cash/share:
P/E range 12.97-16.39: 583.56 - 737.57 P/C range 4.39-5.54: 572.38-723.59
The P/E and P/C are averages of the highs and lows in between each earnings from the announcement of 4Q11 earnings until now.
I think my estimates are pretty conservative. I also think we are more likely to see the low side of the trading range for the next three months sooner rather than later.
And projecting out to April earnings, I do think we stand a decent chance to hit $800 before April. But I will reserve further comment until after Thursday.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 22, 2012 6:07:28 GMT -8
That story is SO full of facts. I must quote it in its entirety.Samsung Display to terminate Apple deal By Cho Mu-hyun, Kim Yoo-chul Samsung Display said Monday that it will terminate its contract with Apple and no longer supply liquid crystal display (LCD) panels to its long time partner. The news comes as speculation is mounting over a rift between the two firms that have shared a long relationship in electronic components. The display panel manufacturer plans to completely cut its years-long business ties with Apple as it believes its American partner is no longer a cash-generator due to the iPhone maker’s stiffer supply-chain management structure. The Cupertino, California-based firm has been lowering its reliance on Samsung-manufactured displays for use in its popular i-branded devices as it is leveraging its influence to source components from Samsung’s rivals attracted by better pricing. “We are unable to supply our flat-screens to Apple with huge price discounts. Samsung has already cut our portion of shipments to Apple and next year we will stop shipping displays,” said a senior Samsung source, asking not to be named, Monday. According to multiple sources contacted by The Korea Times, Samsung Electronics’ handset division and Amazon are increasing their orders for displays used in tablets, which is a sufficient substitute for possible losses from cutting the relationship with the iPad maker. Samsung Display was the top supplier to Apple as of the end of the first six months of this year, shipping over 15 million LCDs, followed by its biggest rival LG Display with 12.5 million and Japan’s Sharp with 2.8 million, said market research firm DisplaySearch. “But Samsung shipped less than 3 million to Apple during the third quarter of this year and we expect the quarterly shipment in the fourth quarter to fall to some 1.5 million,” said the source, who is directly involved with the matter. Samsung Display didn’t provide panels for Apple’s new iPad — tentatively named the iPad Mini. The new tablet will have a 7.85 inch screen, which was exclusively reported by The Korea Times in March this year. “Although we are losing Apple business, Samsung looks safe as we found the right alternatives — Amazon and Samsung Electronics’ handset division,” stressed the source. A Samsung spokesman declined to comment citing the sensitivity of the issue. Stock market analysts note that the critical reason for ending ties was due to the plummeting margins from supplying Apple. Even before the coming launch of the iPad Mini, the price per pixel have more than halved from the iPad 2 to the new iPad. Research firm DisplaySearch said the LCD display used in the new iPad, which has a resolution of 2048x1536 millimeters, sports 3.14 million pixels priced at $.00003 per pixel. The one for the iPad 2 was priced at $.000063 per pixel.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 22, 2012 6:10:10 GMT -8
The story from Samesong is simply ASTOUNDING! Apple's margins are increasing!
Please check my math!
Research firm DisplaySearch said the LCD display used in the new iPad, which has a resolution of 2048x1536 millimeters, sports 3.14 million pixels priced at $.00003 per pixel. The one for the iPad 2 was priced at $.000063 per pixel.
That suggests the screen has been reduced in price from over $180 per screen to $94 per screen.
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