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Post by darrenhd on Oct 22, 2012 10:40:27 GMT -8
Big fight? Riot? It doesn't matter. There was a disturbance related to quality guidelines. Hey, if you want to make investment and trading decisions based upon rumour and FUD, then fill yer boots. You should be able to find a reason to sell virtually every single day with that strategy. If you believe strongly enough that these smoke signals mean that there really is a serious supply problem, then by all means sell. Just don't expect the smoke to clear in the aftermath. There will be FUD-induced haze surrounding this stock for the foreseeable future. Agreed. I've been trading Apple since 2007 and it will always be there. But sometimes you should listen to it, even if it's irrational or untrue. There is a herd mentality in the market which you shouldn't ignore. If you are a long term buy and hold investor then maybe you can (mostly) ignore it. But if you don't want to get slaughtered like I did in 2008/9 when it went from 200 to 89 then you need to understand the FUD and how to play it. At least that is my take. For what it's worth, I am long.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 22, 2012 10:41:37 GMT -8
AAPL is doing pretty DARN good. Look at the heat map of the SPDR!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 22, 2012 10:46:16 GMT -8
Tim Cook is best in class at what he does.
Anyway, AAPL showing some power! Tremendous relative strength. Couldn't resist adding back a bit (smaller bet, BCS) through 625. I'd feel comfortable holding through earnings with that amount at stake.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 22, 2012 10:46:18 GMT -8
SMA100: 627.03 SMA200: 584.05
We need to close above the SMA100 to have a chance to continue green up to earnings IMO.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 22, 2012 10:47:40 GMT -8
This is just ONE DAY.
So I'm thinking no, it doesn't have to reclaim the 100-day immediately.
...though it could!
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 22, 2012 10:49:22 GMT -8
ON TOS, the MMM is NOW 56.89. 3 day Weekly Volatility now 84.83. 4 day Weekly Volatility now 61.26.
Golly, that is a big number. (It suggests to me that there is increased buying of weekly Calls at higher prices.)
Nice volume of AAPL at 14,889,000
P.S. I just noticed the EOs added a special event weekly corresponding to Apple's earnings.
Did anybody else see that? OR am I asleep at the wheel?
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Post by jcaron on Oct 22, 2012 10:52:48 GMT -8
Shortages depend on your region I suppose... I walked into my local ATT as well as Verizon store last week to look at contracts and phones. They both had iPhone 5's in stock. Neither had 32gb phones but both had a few 16's as well as 64's. You cannot attach meaning to the "supply problem" without associated sales results. For all we know, we are dealing with insane demand that was not possible to model or plan for. Or maybe Apple totally screwed up and is having real trouble building product. We cannot distinguish disaster from wonderful, without sales results. Everything else is here-say and conjecture right now. We will find out soon enough The rumours talked about shortages of the display and the qualcomm chip. The known fact is quality problems with nicks and scratches on some iPhone 5's, riots at the factory due to strict quality measure and statements from foxconn about this being the most challenging iPhone they've had to make. All of those factors together point towards supply shortages. Some of it is fact, some of it is speculation. But it is also fact people are still waiting 4-6 weeks to get their phones. Apple's guidance and last quarter's sales #'s will help shed some light on the next quarter.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 22, 2012 10:56:40 GMT -8
This is just ONE DAY. So I'm thinking no, it doesn't have to reclaim the 100-day immediately. ...though it could! From what I see, AAPL's 100 Day is 626.54. We've broken through that and it appears that it is now support. (am I reading this correctly? still trying to learn)
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 22, 2012 11:01:17 GMT -8
Within $ 0.75 of HOD with 1 hour to go. This is always a positive sign.
oops -- dropped right after posting. Roughly $ 1.25 from high of day or less.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 22, 2012 11:04:39 GMT -8
Shorts often try to blunt AAPL's momentum around this time of day. Let's see where we end up.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 22, 2012 11:07:11 GMT -8
Let's see what the "big boys" do in the final hour.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 22, 2012 11:14:13 GMT -8
Let's see what the "big boys" do in the final hour. I'll let you know what I do after I do it....
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 22, 2012 11:14:16 GMT -8
$ 629.xx
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Post by sponge on Oct 22, 2012 11:14:39 GMT -8
Here comes 630.
I think we will close around 627. A great start. Still see at least 680 by Friday.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 22, 2012 11:16:50 GMT -8
Daily SMA-100 = 627-ish. Very bullish if we can close over that!
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Post by appledoc on Oct 22, 2012 11:17:17 GMT -8
This is just ONE DAY. So I'm thinking no, it doesn't have to reclaim the 100-day immediately. ...though it could! From what I see, AAPL's 100 Day is 626.54. We've broken through that and it appears that it is now support. (am I reading this correctly? still trying to learn) 626.54 is the 100 day ending Friday. 100 day including today is sitting at 627.05 currently.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 22, 2012 11:17:17 GMT -8
Good one Ensign. AAPL still powering higher! I wonder what this tape must feel like for bears today.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 22, 2012 11:18:20 GMT -8
Daily SMA-100 = 627-ish. Very bullish if we can close over that! Totally agree. We would have to close above and come back and successfully test it to consider it support though, right?
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 22, 2012 11:19:05 GMT -8
Here comes 630. I think we will close around 627. A great start. Still see at least 680 by Friday. I see at least 679.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 22, 2012 11:20:32 GMT -8
Relative strength is insane today. Great short-term sign.
Best of all, a gap so small it pretty much doesn't count. Just a nice linear progression all day.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 22, 2012 11:25:03 GMT -8
ON TOS, the MMM is NOW 56.89. 3 day Weekly Volatility now 84.83. 4 day Weekly Volatility now 61.26. Golly, that is a big number. (It suggests to me that there is increased buying of weekly Calls at higher prices.) Nice volume of AAPL at 14,889,000 P.S. I just noticed the EOs added a special event weekly corresponding to Apple's earnings. Did anybody else see that? OR am I asleep at the wheel? TOS live help said he saw it too. He said additional options were added to the weekly which caused the software to add an additional weekly until it was corrected. All is well now. More Miller in a bottle please!TOS now shows AAPL = $629.49 volume=16 million MMM=31.97 Weekly volatility=63
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 22, 2012 11:26:16 GMT -8
To the MOON ALICE! Can we get a rocket ship or rally monkey?
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Post by sponge on Oct 22, 2012 11:26:34 GMT -8
Here comes 630. I think we will close around 627. A great start. Still see at least 680 by Friday. I see at least 679. I still bet you will be banned before me. Keep it up.
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 22, 2012 11:30:27 GMT -8
Coming along, with pretty good volume. But if too many are watching the 100 DMA at 625.8 and waiting, if the stock gets to 626.5 or 627 it should take off a bit. Capitulation works going both ways, including for those waiting to see if the upswing is real. There we go. I was expecting a little quicker move on up from 627, and a bit more volume, but considering the market this isn't bad. Back to where we likely would have ended Friday if Goog hadn't preannounced. We got a nice 6 inches of snow last night, and it's continued all day. It's a nice day to sit inside with the wood stove cranked.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 22, 2012 11:32:04 GMT -8
This feels like the kind of rally no one was expecting, but no one wants to miss out on either. AAPL keeps getting buyer support throughout the day! Who knows about the rest of the week - today was pretty nice!
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 22, 2012 11:33:52 GMT -8
time to guess the close:
$635 with a volume of 20,323,419
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 22, 2012 11:34:05 GMT -8
Here comes 630. I think we will close around 627. A great start. Still see at least 680 by Friday. I see at least 679. In either case those of us who shopped during this WTF sale would make some decent cash.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 22, 2012 11:34:48 GMT -8
I still bet you will be banned before me. Keep it up. Boys, boys....just enjoy the green..
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 22, 2012 11:34:51 GMT -8
time to guess the close: $635 with a volume of 20,323,419 632
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 22, 2012 11:35:36 GMT -8
time to guess the close: $635 with a volume of 20,323,419 Whoa! Hope you're right.
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