Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2012 7:41:02 GMT -8
EDIT: Not-so-early fiscal Q4 discussion now. Since early discussion in this topic has been pretty light, let's just keep things going in this thread as we move closer to the 25th.
iPhone 5 is sure to meaningfully impact fiscal Q4 numbers. Which, while relatively "meaningless" in the scheme of things, is still important for completing the Fiscal '12 picture.
Hey, we're not all active traders here. And even some of us active traders place great value on trying to forecasting the fundamentals, because we trade and invest on multiple timeframes. Let's get a good discussion going!
I should have some prelim numbers up within a few days.
|
|
|
Post by roni on Sept 19, 2012 14:21:20 GMT -8
I will work on my estimates seriously after this weekend's sales figures are announced
|
|
|
Post by chasmac on Sept 20, 2012 11:25:47 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Sept 20, 2012 11:27:44 GMT -8
Seems high to me across the board, especially the Mac's.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2012 11:42:51 GMT -8
Not sure about Macs and iPhones yet.
But I think it's a good estimate at this point.
I think GM is a touch conservative.
|
|
|
Post by roni on Sept 20, 2012 16:59:23 GMT -8
I think GM may be a tad high
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2012 17:17:58 GMT -8
High? Due to iPad mix, or higher initial iPhone 5 cost structure?
NAND costs keep going down as far as contribution to the cost mix, since capacities have been frozen for a while now. 64GB is a margin monster. I think near-max GM potential of the iPhone 4S/4/3GS combined will somewhat offset any GM hit from the iPhone 5.
|
|
|
Post by cambrose on Sept 20, 2012 17:37:06 GMT -8
Peter O said GM would be reduced this quarter in part due to stronger US dollar. USD has done nothing but go down since the conf call... At least with respect to CAD.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 20, 2012 17:38:28 GMT -8
Good catch!
|
|
|
Post by roni on Sept 20, 2012 17:39:14 GMT -8
High? Due to iPad mix, or higher initial iPhone 5 cost structure? NAND costs keep going down as far as contribution to the cost mix, since capacities have been frozen for a while now. 64GB is a margin monster. I think near-max GM potential of the iPhone 4S/4/3GS combined will somewhat offset any GM hit from the iPhone 5. Yes Both
|
|
|
Post by stkstalker on Sept 21, 2012 8:08:06 GMT -8
Early BOM cost for the iPhone 5 - $167.50
IHS iSuppli estimated Tuesday night--before taking apart the iPhone 5--that Apple pays $199 for the components in a 16-gigabyte model. The preliminary estimate for UBM TechInsights was $167.50.
|
|
|
Post by roni on Sept 30, 2012 13:14:00 GMT -8
Here are my guesses
GM 42.5% EPS $10.68
4.8 million Mac 28 million iPhone 5.9 million iPod 20.5 milion iPad
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 30, 2012 13:20:26 GMT -8
iPhone is a HUGE cloud of uncertainty for me.
How many iPhones do you think Apple sold before the iPhone 5 media invite? I have a hard time thinking Apple managed to sell much more than 15M despite the the 4S being a fresher product than the 4 at this time of the year.
There's also the matter of Apple's slower growth in transition quarters. It'll be very interesting to see how Apple managed growth this time around.
Personally, I'm having trouble with 25M iPhones sold this just-ended fiscal quarter.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Sept 30, 2012 13:31:58 GMT -8
I submitted to Braeburn , EPS 9.12. The key however is guidance for Q1. Attachments:
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Sept 30, 2012 14:24:40 GMT -8
I submitted to Braeburn , EPS 9.12. The key however is guidance for Q1. CL4, why such a low ASP for the ipod? I believe the iphone launching in Sept solidifies an EPS over $9, I don't think $10 is possible, hope I am wrong. Like you I believe everyone will be looking at Q1 numbers. If Apple guides anything over $13 I will fall out of my chair. WS will be looking for much higher.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Sept 30, 2012 14:47:37 GMT -8
My guess is that iPod sales cratered, mainly at the top. The two-three reasons are the Sept 12 launch as well as the general economy. Maybe a haircut to 150 would have been enough.
For next quarter, I expect a healthy rebound in ASP to 170.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 30, 2012 15:44:40 GMT -8
My semi-conservative fiscal Q4 2012 projection (will be revised before earnings) is $8.91 EPS on $36B in revs. Something like 22.5M iPhones, 21M iPads, 42% GM. More details to follow.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 30, 2012 22:43:22 GMT -8
My semi-conservative fiscal Q4 2012 projection (will be revised before earnings) is $8.91 EPS on $36B in revs. Something like 22.5M iPhones, 21M iPads, 42% GM. More details to follow. I think your iPhone number is several million light...BWDIK. I'm still closer to 25
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 30, 2012 22:52:26 GMT -8
I think it's best to approach the iPhone equation as (iPhones sold before media invite) + (mostly iPhone 5s sold into the channel before Sep. 29).
There's two factors at play. What happened with iPads (epic launch, what seemed like pretty good supply, and the numbers Apple ended up with, partly because the 3rd gen iPad was new enough to take time to ramp up, partly because iPad 2 demand in the final quarter was weaker than some thought) and iPhone's YOY growth rate from last year, which may not be as anomalous as it first seemed.
Don't forget the new ballgame for guidance v. actual. See fiscal Q3 guidance in Q2, and see how close Q3 actual was to guidance for once.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 2, 2012 5:30:34 GMT -8
Mav, I have looked at it the same way you have and view sales from the 21st to the end of month at 8-10 mil. The qtr last year was 17 and did not have the same China carriers. My low end is 25 mil.
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Oct 3, 2012 3:00:22 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Big Al on Oct 5, 2012 0:48:54 GMT -8
I have the same iPad number, but lower iPhone number (ca. 25 million units). Currently my EPS stands at $9.52, but might change within the next few weeks due to more information coming in.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 5, 2012 1:17:16 GMT -8
I'm at $9.62 on almost the same count of product....I think iPhones could e a bit weaker just cause of that infernal supply question.
Well, more sales this quarter....
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 5, 2012 7:52:13 GMT -8
I adjusted my OpEx number to about Oppenheimer's guidance, which brought EPS over $9. Problem is, Oppenheimer is _not_ historically conservative about guided OpEx IIRC...and last fiscal quarter, actual OpEx turned in higher. So we'll see.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Oct 7, 2012 19:25:10 GMT -8
Here are the estimates from Braeburn. braeburngroup.com/You should have an AFB number and we can compare.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 8, 2012 7:23:20 GMT -8
Here are the estimates from Braeburn. braeburngroup.com/You should have an AFB number and we can compare. Although I'm in the low end, I believe Wall Street is looking for a certain number guidance as confirmation. In the meantime, I suppose FoxConn FUD is center stage.
|
|
|
Post by machouse on Oct 12, 2012 10:47:05 GMT -8
Revenue $38.5 EPS $10.59 Mac 5.1 Iphone 26.5 Ipad 20
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 12, 2012 10:52:58 GMT -8
Less than two weeks to go. Updates/more detailed estimates welcome.
|
|
|
Post by tradermac on Oct 13, 2012 19:17:46 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 14, 2012 5:39:35 GMT -8
|
|