bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Dec 26, 2015 11:20:34 GMT -8
Since no one has started the thread, I thought I would give it a try. I hope this means that everyone is out taking advantage of day after Christmas sales. While you are at it, drop by the Aple store and buy a couple of dozens products. It cannot hurt.
MDN has a lot of the usual FUD, but my suggestion is to just ignore everything until February 1.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Dec 26, 2015 12:41:32 GMT -8
Either I am posting in the wrong place, or this is the quietest I have ever seen this board. I just posted this at Apple 2.0. I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday.
Apple's success over the past couple of decades has been the result of significant innovations in completely new product areas, followed by successive refinement of those ares at a pace that eliminates competition. The iPod/iTunes innovation ended an era of CD's, mini-Discs, and fumbling attempts at MP3 players. The refinement of the product with the iPod mini and iPod nano came so fast that they soon owned that space. The same thing happened with the iPhone. The initial impact of having the internet in your pocket gave them the market, but they kept it by constant steady improvement.
The point of this is that the stock is going to move in a similar manner. A big jump up followed by several years of slower growth as the product is refined. The problem is that analysts don't look at the world that way. Growth has to be linear because the tools are linear. At least the language used to report and predict is linear. So we see references to y-o-y growth and growth relative to last quarter without any real context. The distortions to the linear hypothesis go beyond the non-linearity inherent in innovation. They are also a result of market conditions. When China Mobile added iPhones, the potential market doubled overnight. Nothing linear there.
There is an old story in academia about a man searching for his lost car keys under a lamppost. Someone stops to help and says, "Where were you when you dropped them?" the man replies "About 100 yards away down the road" the stranger says, "Why are you looking for them here?" and the man says, "The light is better here"
Analysts look at the stock linearly because that is what they can do with the tools they have. The tools mis-represent the underlying complexity of the situation and the predictions are wrong. But in the market, predictions are self fulfilling. So everyone is afraid to buy because they are afraid that everyone else is afraid to buy.
The most serious part of this is that even when the predictions are proven wrong, people still believe them. This kind is willful ignorance is troublesome and the main reason to be wary of Apple.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Dec 26, 2015 12:47:21 GMT -8
It is not that I mind drinking alone, but it does remind me of something I came across about ten years ago in Alaska. I wrote this to try to capture the image.
Thompson Pass
Just as I raised my fist to knock on the door, I peered in the window of the bar A room of empty tables, dark in the late afternoon light at the far end, a bar with a lonely light sitting at the center of the bar, a man, head in his hands
The building and parking lots are deserted there is nothing but mountains, tundra, and glaciers It is 25 miles in any direction to the next living soul
and he sits
I yearn to knock, to reach him, to pull him back into the world in the silence, a deeper voice says
Let him be.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Dec 26, 2015 13:17:20 GMT -8
Nice passage, Bud! I hope you write often. You're not alone. We're here. PED throws in his 2 cents today, though the best part is the commentary from our boys in the hood (past & present). fortune.com/author/philip-elmer-dewitt/
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Dec 26, 2015 13:36:46 GMT -8
Since no one has started the thread, I thought I would give it a try. I hope this means that everyone is out taking advantage of day after Christmas sales. While you are at it, drop by the Aple store and buy a couple of dozens products. It cannot hurt. Well, not dozens, but we did just pick up two iPhone 6S's as mutual Christmas gifts. Verizon Wireless gave us upgrades to 64MB from our usual 16Mb at no extra charge! Unfortunately, the backups we did just prior to leaving the house to get them are nowhere to be found in iTunes, so we have some extra work ahead of us and are hoping we haven't lost too much. We both sat there and watched the backups before we left, so pretty mystified about what happened. Pictures arrived today of the new grandson in a very cute seasonal outfit, so that has greatly helped to offset our frustration. In any case, hope Christmas was great for everyone who celebrates it. It certainly was the warmest I can remember here in Boston. Thanks, Bud, for holding down the fort here at AFB.
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Post by incorrigible on Dec 26, 2015 13:40:38 GMT -8
FYI, still here too.
Holiday report: Went to sister-in-law's for Xmas dinner. Kids got one iPhone, two iPads, Apple TV, and one Macbook. This from a former all Android/Windows household.
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Post by sponge on Dec 26, 2015 14:29:55 GMT -8
Not to be a downer, but in our house no new Apple products. We do have new iPhones and Apple watches but they were bought months ago. No iMacs, iPads, or MacBooks.
I guess the Apple TV is new.
Found out my two friends who were excited about their Apple Watches initially, have both returned them. For one it was hard to justify cost, since her fitbit did the job. The other just loved her Movado collection too much and found the Apple Watch to hard to learn and too slow. Hope these two are unique.
Given the slowing in iPhone growth from last year, I think we could be in for another long year of going nowhere. I still see a 30% move from the lows to the next set of highs. We will see the RSI back to 80 and I hope that happens in the next 4 months.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 26, 2015 17:19:59 GMT -8
Not to be a downer, but in our house no new Apple products. We do have new iPhones and Apple watches but they were bought months ago. No iMacs, iPads, or MacBooks. I guess the Apple TV is new. Found out my two friends who were excited about their Apple Watches initially, have both returned them. For one it was hard to justify cost, since her fitbit did the job. The other just loved her Movado collection too much and found the Apple Watch to hard to learn and too slow. Hope these two are unique. Relax, sponge. My wife and I both love our Apple Watches, thereby canceling the experience of your two friends. We're now back to even for small sample size experiences with the Apple Watch. Given the slowing in iPhone growth from last year, I think we could be in for another long year of going nowhere. I still see a 30% move from the lows to the next set of highs. We will see the RSI back to 80 and I hope that happens in the next 4 months. Are we truly having problems with our stock going nowhere because of slowing in iPhone growth, or is it investor fear, created and abetted by FUD writers (and analysts)? Unless you have a an innate ability to foresee future iPhone sales, as apparently analysts that have commented over the last couple of weeks do, I wouldn't be so quick to assume iPhone sales growth is over.
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Post by sponge on Dec 26, 2015 17:57:05 GMT -8
Last year iPhone grew 45%. This year base on guidance I am modeling 12% growth with a further drop to 6% in second quarter.
I think 3rd quarter we may be in trouble.
The stock for sees this and has corrected in anticipation.
Not sure other products can carry us towards 20% revenue growth that I expected.
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Post by deasys on Dec 26, 2015 21:16:33 GMT -8
Unfortunately, the backups we did just prior to leaving the house to get them are nowhere to be found in iTunes, so we have some extra work ahead of us and are hoping we haven't lost too much. We both sat there and watched the backups before we left, so pretty mystified about what happened. These may help: support.apple.com/en-us/HT203768support.apple.com/en-us/HT205268
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 26, 2015 23:51:17 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Dec 27, 2015 8:29:49 GMT -8
Saw "The Big Short" yesterday. An excellent movie, really a must see for those on this board. The movie is excellent as a movie too, and was well rated on IMDb.
A true story !
Stunning how Wall Street and the Banks have become such a "game". Also reminds me oh how people are predicting from supply chain data predictions about the iPhone.
If you haven't seen it yet, you might really like going to see it.
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Post by rezonate on Dec 27, 2015 15:26:09 GMT -8
No time for a long thoughtful post, but I have been reflecting on the background of recent Apple expansions. iMac came at a time when people were moving from dial-up to broadband, and helped jettison old tech (3.5 floppy) for new (USB). iPhone leveraged pervasive data and the inevitable move away from the browser back to channels. iPad is the magic mirror into an electronic world of content as real world items disappear into a sea of streaming bits. Apple Watch hopes to solidify the nascent biotracking trend, and lock in super-simple mobile payment drones.
So, what background trends exist today that will serve as the waves upon which future Apple products will ride? What is going on with WiMax? Global security invasiveness and Big Brother backlash? Will there be room for Apple to monetize the huge stable of proprietary technologies locked in the patent vault, such as the MagSafe charger, rolled-and-flattened batteries, metallurgy processes, mobile chips, voice control, TouchID, the list goes on.
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Post by mrentropy on Dec 27, 2015 17:23:07 GMT -8
Saw "The Big Short" yesterday. An excellent movie, really a must see for those on this board. The movie is excellent as a movie too, and was well rated on IMDb. A true story ! Stunning how Wall Street and the Banks have become such a "game". Also reminds me oh how people are predicting from supply chain data predictions about the iPhone. If you haven't seen it yet, you might really like going to see it. Totally agree, watched the screener with the family last night and really enjoyed it. Do go see it for the entertainment and for a glimpse into the darkness which is our financial system.
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Post by firestorm on Dec 27, 2015 18:14:23 GMT -8
I read the article you linked to (thanks for the link), but found the headline extremely irritating compared to the balanced content of the article, which showed Apple advancing on all fronts. The valuation still makes absolutely no sense to me, as we near the start of a year that will probably see Google/Alphabet and perhaps Amazon catapult in market valuation past Apple. Life is unfair, but this is getting ridiculous.
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Post by mrentropy on Dec 27, 2015 18:35:23 GMT -8
I hate to be the negative one again coming out of a very joyous Christmas, but AAPL is bear flagging just above that 107 level again. If it doesn't hold this time, I don't think RSI saves us. Personally, going below it again will have me buying puts for real this time. The next thing even resembling support is around 92. That brings us to a P/E around 10.5. Without the buyback, all time low P/E.
Value investing is dead.
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Post by tuffett on Dec 28, 2015 2:36:42 GMT -8
With the dozens of bullish technical signals that never played out, I wouldn't read too much into a bear flag.
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