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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 16:50:16 GMT -8
Gregg, your published EPS estimate is higher than most... Given new info that has come out, would you lower it now? I, too, greatly appreciate your contributions to AFB! No. My Mac revenue was lower than most, fudging a little here, and a little there, makes up for any errors in iPad estimates. If I were to change anything, I'd lower my EPS estimate 10 cents, but that is based on calculations made before TC's iPad comment. Oh, and thanks for the comment.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 16:56:33 GMT -8
All we need to know is that total first weekend sales we more than 25% higher than the 4S. For sure another million were in transit. I don't know how long it took Apple to stockpile that many, but Apple is producing at max rate right now, and will be until demand balance is reached (mid to late March quarter). Gregg, your published EPS estimate is higher than most... Given new info that has come out, would you lower it now? I, too, greatly appreciate your contributions to AFB! I should have been a little clearer in my earlier response as to why I'm not changing my numbers. Part of my earnings estimate revolves around Mac cannibalization by the iPad. If Apple sold fewer iPads than I estimated, then the reverse is true of Mac sales (less cannibalization resulting in higher Mac revenue).
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Post by tuffett on Oct 24, 2012 17:51:36 GMT -8
We return to the scene of the crime... AAPL DAILY CHART: That's incredible. There is no manipulation though. Doesn't exist. Never. Respect of S/R is now classified as manipulation? Am I missing something? I'd love if we could lay off the conspiracy theories. Knowing what we know, the longer AAPL remains undervalued, the better for us, because we should know how to capitalize off it.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 18:54:16 GMT -8
LOL, I can tell you that I love a good conspiracy theory and our benevolent leader likes them also. ;D
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jz
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Post by jz on Oct 24, 2012 19:04:00 GMT -8
Sprint number tomorrow should be interesting given they put their whole business on the line for iPhone. Also - Amzn - will people ever see through the smoke and mirrors they have created? At what point will earnings count? - ugh As I posted earlier, in my ideal world Sprint surprises to the upside on iPhone... Big Time. Remember the quote for the movie, "Pay it Forward"? .... "It could happen."
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 19:22:14 GMT -8
Sprint number tomorrow should be interesting given they put their whole business on the line for iPhone. Also - Amzn - will people ever see through the smoke and mirrors they have created? At what point will earnings count? - ugh As I posted earlier, in my ideal world Sprint surprises to the upside on iPhone... Big Time. Remember the quote for the movie, "Pay it Forward"? .... "It could happen." Sprint has not really advertised the iphone. Not sure how their sales have gone. Would love to see 2 mil, doubt if it happens.
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jz
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"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
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Post by jz on Oct 24, 2012 19:23:39 GMT -8
Something I haven't heard discussed much... When people sell their iGear, Apple does not benefit from the sale, but whole legions of price sensitive users enter (or remain) in the ecosystem... They may buy software/content and, like me through college and years after, they aspire to the day when they can buy the latest/greatest. So, when ANALysts complain that Apple doesn't have price points at the lower end, they are wrong. Again. I did borrow $2K right after college to buy my first new Apple product in mid 80s, 512K Mac, and soon upgraded to 1meg. The only other loans I took out in this lifetime were for a mortgage on my first and second house.
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jz
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Post by jz on Oct 24, 2012 19:33:00 GMT -8
Thanks for the post Gregg, always interesting. What's the lowest that ratio ever gets before a bull run? The lowest I recall seeing it in the last two years was about 0.64:1.00. That was in December 2011. In January Apple reported the most extreme earnings beat ever. I like that line of reasoning!
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jz
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"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
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Post by jz on Oct 24, 2012 19:36:06 GMT -8
LOL, calm down Gregg, what was your ipad number again. true, but the the AT&T and Verizon numbers are now fact, and they both are stronger than expected, even to the optimistic analysts. I can't see how we go from 7.9m from the 3 big US carriers (VZ, T, S) and 26m overall, to: 7.8m just from VZ and T, plus Sprint ~1.5, and come up with 26m again like last quarter. Either I just don't know what some insiders know about foreign iphone sales, or something doesn't add up. Or we are above 30m and everyone says for the 20th time, 'wtf was I thinking to doubt them' we'll know soon enough! Love it, Terps! What's a terp?
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 19:51:16 GMT -8
Maryland guy I imagine.
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jz
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Post by jz on Oct 24, 2012 19:54:37 GMT -8
Gregg, your published EPS estimate is higher than most... Given new info that has come out, would you lower it now? I, too, greatly appreciate your contributions to AFB! No. My Mac revenue was lower than most, fudging a little here, and a little there, makes up for any errors in iPad estimates. If I were to change anything, I'd lower my EPS estimate 10 cents, but that is based on calculations made before TC's iPad comment. Oh, and thanks for the comment. Sweet. That should make me, Nate, Mark, greedynube and a lot others others here sleep a little better tonight. With all the bearishness lately it seems forgotten that Apple misses much less often than they upside surprise.
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Post by prazan on Oct 24, 2012 19:57:07 GMT -8
Here's a thought. The iPhone 5 shipped to 10 countries at the end of Q4, so sales will likely be weighted more heavily to the U.S. than in other quarters. Rather than 30% of total sales, the U.S. might weigh in at 35%, or somewhere between the two figures.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 24, 2012 20:14:18 GMT -8
I read this stuff and I gotta wonder: Global Equities' Trip Chowdhry: Quick Take. "Key take aways: Innovation at Apple is over... Just incremental improvements, nothing ground breaking. The best is over for Apple. iPad mini is playing catch up to Google Android, probably will have a mediocre customer adoption." Nomura's Stuart Jeffrey: iPad Mini: Fresh, but Not Wild. "We think the new products are exciting on a standalone basis, but all could also be described as incremental improvements. We see limited impact on earnings estimates, as both the nature and price of the product announcements broadly met expectations..." Of course the new products are incremental! Gosh, the iPad mini does NOT have magnetic levitation so it's NOT hands-free - boo hoo. The new iPad can't project holographic images like R2D2 - it's only incremental! I wonder, do these people really expect Apple's products to radically change with every new model? Aren't desktop computers, TVs, cars, planes, etc. all slowly improving? Why isn't Apple allowed to iterate, hone, refine, improve its products like everybody else without Chowdhry-heads making dumb comments about Apple not reinventing the wheel every six months? Anyone? Pardon the rant - just tired of inane commentary, I guess. Yes, that is so fucking dumb when they say that. What other companies must creatively destroy an industry once per year? We'll just limit our search to those with higher P/E's than Apple, like Google, for instance. We can even use Google search to do it, which hasn't changed in like 15 years. New rule: Apple gets to finish destroying industries with one product before it must innovate another entirely different one. And the serial killer known as "mobile" still has a lot of victims left. Saw the new Mac Book Pro 13" Retina ad during the world series, very nice. Oh, and yeah, Best Buy dying, real tragedy.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 20:24:09 GMT -8
Here's a thought. The iPhone 5 shipped to 10 countries at the end of Q4, so sales will likely be weighted more heavily to the U.S. than in other quarters. Rather than 30% of total sales, the U.S. might weigh in at 35%, or somewhere between the two figures. They launched in 31 countries before the end of the qtr. I am cautious about the iphone number, but I feel better about it coming in around 26 million. (9 countries on 21st and 22 countries on the 28th) quarter closed on the 29th at midnight if I am not mistaken.
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Post by johng on Oct 24, 2012 20:32:12 GMT -8
Here's a thought. The iPhone 5 shipped to 10 countries at the end of Q4, so sales will likely be weighted more heavily to the U.S. than in other quarters. Rather than 30% of total sales, the U.S. might weigh in at 35%, or somewhere between the two figures. I agree to the extent that it's seems unlikely to be below 30%. Hopefully, not at the 35% level though. cheers to us all JohnG
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Post by prazan on Oct 24, 2012 20:38:30 GMT -8
Here's a thought. The iPhone 5 shipped to 10 countries at the end of Q4, so sales will likely be weighted more heavily to the U.S. than in other quarters. Rather than 30% of total sales, the U.S. might weigh in at 35%, or somewhere between the two figures. They launched in 31 countries before the end of the qtr. I am cautious about the iphone number, but I feel better about it coming in around 26 million. (9 countries on 21st and 22 countries on the 28th) quarter closed on the 29th at midnight if I am not mistaken. Thanks for the clarification. I'm posting without my usual research due to time constraints. But a few days in 22 countries might not add up to that much, depending on allocations. Everything depends on allocation, or supply, rather than demand. I'd estimated 26 million going into the VZ earnings report, but if I got a "do over" I'd go with 28 million.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 20:45:38 GMT -8
I'd still be a little careful with earnings - if you play it, just know what you're getting into. Apple is plowing tons of resources into the next year and beyond, so I'm still thinking fiscal Q2 2013 will be the monster quarter for Apple rather than fiscal Q1 2013.
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jz
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Post by jz on Oct 24, 2012 20:49:03 GMT -8
Open Interest is negligible between 600 and 650.
Earnings reported on a Thursday could add some interesting wrinkles for options expiring the next day should AAPL spike up or down...
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 20:50:37 GMT -8
I'd still be a little careful with earnings - if you play it, just know what you're getting into. Apple is plowing tons of resources into the next year and beyond, so I'm still thinking fiscal Q2 2013 will be the monster quarter for Apple rather than fiscal Q1 2013. I would expect Apple to shed light for FQ13 during CC. I think Apple has managed to a number for FQ12. They have tapped on the brakes with Q3/4. More carriers are coming and Apple has a great lineup. You are right Q2 should be great.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 20:53:49 GMT -8
Open Interest is negligible between 600 and 650. Earnings reported on a Thursday could add some interesting wrinkles for options expiring the next day should AAPL spike up or down...javascript:add("%20:o") All those calls above makes me sick. Everyone playing their lottery ticket. Heck I think the lottery has better odds.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 24, 2012 20:55:57 GMT -8
I'd still be a little careful with earnings - if you play it, just know what you're getting into. Apple is plowing tons of resources into the next year and beyond, so I'm still thinking fiscal Q2 2013 will be the monster quarter for Apple rather than fiscal Q1 2013. And so the catalyst for a monster Q2 over Q1 would be full quarter products and lower upfront costs (likely production equipment bought for manufacturing)? I was feeling much better about Q2 before the newest iPad was announced now instead of then. Instead, it seems like we're back to where things were a few years ago, with the big money makers announced for the year already (then it was the iPhone in the summer and iPod in the fall), and so Apple's Q2 turns into a recovery Q to fully catch up with demand and give people some downtime.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 21:04:12 GMT -8
Well, iPad mini, iPad 4, iPhone 5, and Macs will be at or near full production speed for the full quarter with full quarter availability, as you said.
iPad 3 sales - gone 'til a little after early November, no iPad + cellular 'til mid-November (mid-fiscal Q1), and production capacity is currently unknown (expect some idiot FUD on some component yield issue soon for the new new iPad). Same with iMac and MBP Retina 13" to a lesser extent. As "accurate" as Oppenheimer may be trending for guidance, the one thing we have yet to see is Oppenheimer getting less conservative.
Not saying fiscal Q1 2013 will be bad by any means. If Apple can amp up iPhone 5 production to its target max levels I expect great sales to help the holiday quarter. We should just play the expectations game very carefully 'til Oppenheimer gives us those key data points.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 21:06:33 GMT -8
Trading plan for tomorrow: May scale in a bit with some Jun 13s/Jan 14s.
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jz
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Post by jz on Oct 24, 2012 21:14:29 GMT -8
Busy economic calendar tomorrow:
Weekly Bill Settlement
Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET
Money Supply 4:30 PM ET GDP 8:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET Equity Settlement 10-25-12 Equity Settlement 10-26-12 Equity Settlement 10-29-12 Equity Settlement 10-30-12
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 21:30:21 GMT -8
GDP is the big one. (and Sprint of course)
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 21:37:41 GMT -8
One note on the iPad - China is not on the current release schedule for either the iPad mini or the iPad (4th Gen).
This means that until announced otherwise the iPad 3 will still be produced for sale in China.
This may mitigate some of the drawdown in inventory in relation to iPad numbers announced on the earnings call Thursday.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 21:42:54 GMT -8
True, but China is no doubt agitating to be a first-stage launch country for all new products. The closer Apple gets to this goal (tough as it may be with the realities of insane initial demand waves), the happier AAPL longs will be. On a "personal note", I'm divided on what to do with my new iPad (which is more travel companion than much-used home computing device). I paid damn good money for it, but I'm presented with the chance to make a clean break from the Dock Connector. OTOH, who knows if Apple will switch out the new new iPad for the new new new iPad before next June.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 21:45:43 GMT -8
True, but China is no doubt agitating to be a first-stage launch country. The closer Apple gets to this goal (tough as it may be with the realities of insane initial demand waves), the happier AAPL longs will be. It must be partially due to slow government approval for devices - the iPad 3 only launched there 90 days ago. Agree - the quicker the better!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 21:49:44 GMT -8
It must be partially due to slow government approval for devices - the iPad 3 only launched there 90 days ago. Agree - the quicker the better! You're totally right on that approval process, of course. That's a major factor, and it's not altogether "bad" because Apple still has plenty enough demand everywhere else.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 23:00:02 GMT -8
Thanks for the post Gregg, always interesting. What's the lowest that ratio ever gets before a bull run? The lowest I recall seeing it in the last two years was about 0.64:1.00. That was in December 2011. In January Apple reported the most extreme earnings beat ever. It took me a while to find it, but the lowest P/C Ratio in the last 2 years was 0.62:1.00. That low P/C Ratio led directly to a Bull run, lasting 77 trading days, where AAPL went up $265 (70%).
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