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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 19:22:09 GMT -8
A share buyback is the best use of the cash IMO. Strategically buying will create support for the stock. These shares need to be purchased on the open market. These dramatic swings need to end. It is what WB has done with his B shares. What did WB do exactly? He did something I have never heard of, he publicly told WS that there was a level he would not let the B shares fall through and that he would step in and buy. Kind of removes the shorts from the equation. He did not tell WS the number and they did push and then gave up. It has actually been on a nice run. There is always a bigger fish out there.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 19:32:49 GMT -8
Lovey, the site you posted shows a different number from stock charts, but it looks like stock charts subtracted the dividend and this site did not.
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Oct 25, 2012 19:32:56 GMT -8
I can't wait to get my hands on these numbers this weekend. For once I feel like I have a plan and I'm going to trade it. "Everybody's got a plan, til they get punched in the face" - Mike Tyson And, the way I've handled my option plays the last 6 months, I would have been better off testing Mike's skills out.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 19:36:49 GMT -8
I can't wait to get my hands on these numbers this weekend. For once I feel like I have a plan and I'm going to trade it. "Everybody's got a plan, til they get punched in the face" - Mike Tyson And, the way I've handled my option plays the last 6 months, I would have been better off testing Mike's skills out. In what way, that poor little girl thought she would try his skills out also, then he almost split her in half.
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Oct 25, 2012 19:40:25 GMT -8
"Everybody's got a plan, til they get punched in the face" - Mike Tyson And, the way I've handled my option plays the last 6 months, I would have been better off testing Mike's skills out. In what way, that poor little girl thought she would try his skills out also, then he almost split her in half. Boxing skills.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 25, 2012 19:40:59 GMT -8
Because, mathematically, it is. If you don't want to justify your statement completely that's fine. If you'd care to explain how you understand rev rec over what time period that would be more helpful. I was under the assumption we were all here to help each other. If you don't care to that's okay and ill quit asking you the question? Apple has been deferring small amounts of revenue for the sale of various devices for over a year - $11 per iPhone and iPad and $22 per Mac. This is for iCloud service and it is amortized I believe over eight quarters. This is a small amount of revenue to begin with but the real "impact" from a gross margin perspective in any given quarter only comes from the revenue delta between a given quarter and the same quarter the previous year. Since revenue is consistently ramping, there is a slight drag on GM% as a result of this deferral but it is negligible. Apple loves coming up with reasons GM% will be lower than it actually is and every quarter there are "one time" benefits that cause Apple to crush its GM% guidance. This is probably the right move on Apple's part but the gig is up. Its suppliers and competitors all know that Apple's gross margins are insanely high. There's no longer a reason to consistently low ball this guidance by 150+ bps ever quarter. Oh well, it'll likely never change.
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Post by tuffett on Oct 25, 2012 19:43:21 GMT -8
Apple beat its guidence its not a miss This kind of logic never made sense to me. If Apple reports $12.00EPS next quarter will you be satisfied and confident? After all, they would be meeting their guidance. Reality is it would a YoY decline and be disastrous news, and everyone knows it. Let's get real - Apple's guidance means next to nothing and meeting those numbers should not be considered a success. You can't argue that Apple's guidance is the more important number while at the same time whining that the market undervalues AAPL. I certainly wouldn't be investing the amount I do in AAPL if I simply expected them to meet their guidance and nothing more. Personally I would like them to stop guiding altogether, since it's becoming inconsistent and just another reason for FUD spreading. I may be mistaken, but I don't believe forward guidance is a requirement.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 25, 2012 19:45:31 GMT -8
The other solution is for Apple to provide more guidance. Twice quarterly talks with Peter Oppenheimer. (or fire Peter and get someone else to provide accurate guidance on the second quarterly talk.)
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 25, 2012 19:53:57 GMT -8
Apple beat its guidence its not a miss This kind of logic never made sense to me. If Apple reports $12.00EPS next quarter will you be satisfied and confident? After all, they would be meeting their guidance. Reality is it would a YoY decline and be disastrous news, and everyone knows it. Let's get real - Apple's guidance means next to nothing and meeting those numbers should not be considered a success. You can't argue that Apple's guidance is the more important number while at the same time whining that the market undervalues AAPL. I certainly wouldn't be investing the amount I do in AAPL if I simply expected them to meet their guidance and nothing more. Personally I would like them to stop guiding altogether, since it's becoming inconsistent and just another reason for FUD spreading. I may be mistaken, but I don't believe forward guidance is a requirement. It's not a requirement, but it's good for the relationship with "The Street". I used to work for a biotech company, and when we first started to make a profit, the analysts were asking for guidance. It makes their job a lot easier, obviously, rather than try to make up numbers from thin air; and, in return, they don't bust your chops as much, and might even be generous in their coverage of your stock.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 25, 2012 19:55:46 GMT -8
Strk Calls Puts 595 953 4,538 600 3,194 9,436 605 1,961 4,206 610 5,846 6,079 615 6,092 4,294 620 7,288 5,966 625 6,504 3,874
610 is a tie. So I'll call it 605-609.99. Nice put backstops @ 605 & 600.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 25, 2012 19:56:59 GMT -8
Looking at futures it looks like tomorrow is going to be a bad day. I really am getting tired of apple being down nearly everyday.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 25, 2012 20:12:03 GMT -8
I'd just like to add, hell yes, $AAPL should double its divy to around 5%. Are you kidding me? After the Fed says it's keeping rates low through 2014? That would be a yield of about 5X the current 1 year CD rate, for the inconvenience of holding stock in the best company on earth. Great for me, great for you, great extra inducement for everyone to buy and not touch those $AAPL holdings. Can't wait for my next divy, right in time for Christmas.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 25, 2012 20:19:38 GMT -8
More in the market stock buy backs
A higher dividend
Good use of cash, you betcha
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Post by prazan on Oct 25, 2012 20:29:08 GMT -8
I'll tell you one thing, if they can make enough of them, they are gonna sell a massive number of those iMacs. That is one sexy piece of technology. It is drop dead hubba Hubba good looking. I think I actually drooled a bit when he brought that out. No it's not the profit center in the mix but the beat could be so big it will provide cover for a few misses in other areas. Eric in Austin I listened to the cc with a squirming infant in my lap so I might not be the best source but I thought I heard TC say they wouldn't be able to come close to meeting demand for these this quarter. The 27" machine will likely launch in December with an immediate 3-4 week ship time.
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Post by prazan on Oct 25, 2012 20:34:00 GMT -8
Here is a list of how aapl beat guidance in the past. Today we only beat it my 13%. Thats why everyone is saying miss Beat or Miss to Apple 7.37% 44.71% 49.14% 28.18% 54.87% 30.61% 33.96% 34.88% 50.64% 57.08% They're saying it's a miss because it did not meet the analysts' estimate of $8.75 EPS, by a measly $0.08. It's not being pitched as a major miss by the major news sources I've read, nor by analysts. It's close enough to be judged as "meeting" expectations.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 25, 2012 20:37:20 GMT -8
Fear gone. Great company still here. I should be a paid analyst with wisdom like this.
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Post by ccs on Oct 25, 2012 20:46:31 GMT -8
I'm going to sleep much easier now. Rest well Apple Stock Strategists...
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Post by applemuncher on Oct 25, 2012 21:06:36 GMT -8
Every holiday season there is one product that everyone wants but can't buy. I'm worried that this will year it will be the iMac, iPad, and iPhone. Losing Samsung as a supplier is going to hurt. Forecasting Q1 earnings will be VERY difficult, even for Gregg . The good news is that most of the avilability problmes are already priced in to the stock price. Apple will jump $20 on the day iPhone 5 availability drops from 3-4 weeks on the Apple website.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 25, 2012 21:29:39 GMT -8
BTW, GDP numbers come out 5:30 ET.
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Post by BillH on Oct 25, 2012 22:31:40 GMT -8
Apple Store is down but dang if I can remember what's being made available today. MacBook 13" Pro I suppose. Still have to wait for my new iMac. Oh well...,
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Post by joel90069 on Oct 25, 2012 22:33:46 GMT -8
Apple Store is down but dang if I can remember what's being made available today. MacBook 13" Pro I suppose. Still have to wait for my new iMac. Oh well..., Pre-order of iPad Mini in 45 minutes.
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Post by onemoreanimal on Oct 25, 2012 23:01:28 GMT -8
Midnight here on west coast and still not up.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 23:04:04 GMT -8
The sandbag ratio this time was 1.133 as compared to 1.367 for the past 10 quarters, 1.285 of the past 5 quarters including this one, 1.218 for CY 2012 3 quarters. To rephrase, the past 2 quarters have the lowest sandbag ratio in my spreadsheet (begins Jan-Mar 2010). Ovi and I were talking tonight, and I told him that I thought TC is weening us from the craziness of past guidance patterns.
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Post by onemoreanimal on Oct 25, 2012 23:13:57 GMT -8
Store went up at 12:06 am and iPad Mini order went smoothly.
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Post by joel90069 on Oct 25, 2012 23:15:28 GMT -8
Store went up at 12:06 am and iPad Mini order went smoothly. I just bought one too... The last thing I need!
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Post by aaplexcelsior on Oct 25, 2012 23:33:25 GMT -8
1 black / slate 32GB verizon!
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