Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 8:24:11 GMT -8
Well, when guidance was off by as much as it was in fiscal Q1 2012, there's room to be more realistic.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 8:29:46 GMT -8
Well, when guidance was off by as much as it was in fiscal Q1 2012, there's room to be more realistic. You're assuming that they knew beforehand that demand would actually be that high, and that everything in the supply chain would scale perfectly. I seriously doubt that's the case. TC is great, but he knew perfectly well that there were 1,000s of things that could go wrong. I think this is a mistake many people make when discussing Apple's guidance--assuming Apple is able to predict better than they actually can. I expect that they have numbers they are certain they can reach, and numbers that they think they can reach if everything goes just right, and that there's actually a very wide gap between the two.
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 25, 2012 8:30:02 GMT -8
. (...) Last quarter: big miss plus poor guidance and the stock sold off and BOTTOMED at $570 and then traded up to $705 looking ahead to the holiday quarter. (...) People are concerned for the wrong reasons. Be greedy when others are scared. IMHO. That is exactly what I think. IF we do fall because the market WANTS us lower, we'll fall around the 580 range and then we'll fly again. So I'm adding to most of my positions (again) today and will buy a lot more if that after-earnings fall comes true. I'm going to enjoy the roller coaster ride knowing that my long-term core AAPL shares are there to support me.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 25, 2012 8:30:52 GMT -8
The positive... 1. Sentiment is negative with the stock down $90 heading into earnings. 2. Typically, after Apple has a bad quarter (see last quarter) they are especially conservative in the next quarter. The last time that happened the stock popped. In other words, this is a good set up. 3. The 200 day moving average provides strong support (at about $588) limiting downside. 4. Last quarter: big miss plus poor guidance and the stock sold off and BOTTOMED at $570 and then traded up to $705 looking ahead to the holiday quarter. Nothing has changed except that we are closer to the holiday quarter. 5. We now know that the iphone5 is a success, ipad mini is real, and an across the board product refresh (including an amazing looking must have desktop iMac) for the holiday quarter. Therefore, next quarter is an assured success. 6. Valuation will be near recent lows after earning release signaling stock price bottom was likely right now. 7. I have aggressively added to my BCS and will more than double down if we see $590ish after earnings. Either way, right now is a very low risk opportunity. This quarters report really does not matter. The next 2 quarters will be fantastic. That's much more important. I like the tentative sentiment on this board. People are concerned for the wrong reasons. Be greedy when others are scared. IMHO. Very well reasoned, thanks!
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 8:34:27 GMT -8
The trend is changing for Apple guidance, I think. So be careful there. Why do you think the trend is changing? Hasn't the same team been in place for the last 10 quarters? Do you think they consciously are guiding less conservatively or just getting less able to project accurately? I don't care for PO and his guidance.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 25, 2012 8:42:51 GMT -8
hmm 609er. maybe some usual lunchtime weakness orr prob just more nonsense.
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Post by rob_london on Oct 25, 2012 8:46:48 GMT -8
Just been listening to Horace Dediu's latest podcast, talking about Apple's capital expenditure. To put the sums they are spending in perspective, their expenditure is equivalent to buying a US nuclear aircraft carrier every three months...
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Post by appledoc on Oct 25, 2012 8:47:10 GMT -8
Well this is certainly the most fearful I have seen this board.
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Post by jeffi on Oct 25, 2012 8:47:15 GMT -8
There is nothing to fear but the price action. Fundamentals are great! Relax. Take advantage of the manipulation.
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Post by po1nt on Oct 25, 2012 8:48:35 GMT -8
Well this is certainly the most fearful I have seen this board. I think this may be a buy signal.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Oct 25, 2012 8:49:59 GMT -8
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 8:50:19 GMT -8
705 >> under 610 means a lot of disappointment has already been priced in. The "danger level" is certainly lower here than it was a month ago.
There's opportunity in here somewhere, we all just have to try and find it. Earnings in about 4 hours...
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Post by Iceage on Oct 25, 2012 8:51:52 GMT -8
I couldn't resist, I bought some Jun $700.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 25, 2012 8:52:40 GMT -8
The positive... 1. Sentiment is negative with the stock down $90 heading into earnings. 2. Typically, after Apple has a bad quarter (see last quarter) they are especially conservative in the next quarter. The last time that happened the stock popped. In other words, this is a good set up. 3. The 200 day moving average provides strong support (at about $588) limiting downside. 4. Last quarter: big miss plus poor guidance and the stock sold off and BOTTOMED at $570 and then traded up to $705 looking ahead to the holiday quarter. Nothing has changed except that we are closer to the holiday quarter. 5. We now know that the iphone5 is a success, ipad mini is real, and an across the board product refresh (including an amazing looking must have desktop iMac) for the holiday quarter. Therefore, next quarter is an assured success. 6. Valuation will be near recent lows after earning release signaling stock price bottom was likely right now. 7. I have aggressively added to my BCS and will more than double down if we see $590ish after earnings. Either way, right now is a very low risk opportunity. This quarters report really does not matter. The next 2 quarters will be fantastic. That's much more important. I like the tentative sentiment on this board. People are concerned for the wrong reasons. Be greedy when others are scared. IMHO. Exactly! All this talk about comparing to earnings releases from the previous 2 quarters, but there was no talk about the leadup to those earnings. Hmmm, do you think that when AAPL is near an all time high (April) that the stock will continue to go up or down. How much of a positive surprise would it take to make it keep going up. And then there is this Q, down 95 points from the top. How much negativity would it take to make it dive further, vs how much positiveness would it take to make it budge upwards. It's not that it will be a straight line. But it should go up in the coming weeks unless really bad stuff happen to Apple or to the market as a whole. As such, I just bought another chunk of bull call spreads, this time July 600-650's for $22. Max gain of 127%, with low breakeven and full monetization levels, compared to the ATH, current level, and last July's level. I'm not going quite all it, leaving a little in case there is a break down to 590 tomorrow. But given the leadup, I'm thinking the odds of that are relatively low (10-25%), and I'm happy with my current positions.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 25, 2012 8:57:14 GMT -8
a 640/650 spread with APRIL expiration, is over a 150% gain right now!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 8:57:18 GMT -8
iPhone: 28M iPad: 14M Guidance is most important. No supply constraint suggested on the iPhone, iPad or iPad mini and AAPL will run. "Supply Constraint" is totally misunderstood. Apple maintains production capacity such that supply/demand balance is achieved in the second quarter following introduction, ie., iPhone 4S was introduced in October 2011' balance was achieved in February 2012. This is reflected in quarterly unit sales numbers that decline each quarter through the following quarters. Each year Apple increases production capacity, but only to the point where they believe demand will be satisfied FOUR TO FIVE MONTHS after initial launch. You can see this very clearly if you examine sales results for the 4 quarters starting with initial launch. So, the bottom line is that Apple expects, and plans for demand that exceeds its production capacity during first quarter of availability, but is sufficient to satisfy demand after the initial demand surge subsides. During the December quarter iPhone production will run at peak capacity, resulting in about 50,000,000 units sold. This portends extremely well for the full year.
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Post by rob_london on Oct 25, 2012 8:58:33 GMT -8
Kass being provocative again. His latest tweet:
"Question I ask myself....Where are all the Apple bulls that pushed back my cautious remarks last month when the stock was at $700? Crickets!"
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 25, 2012 9:03:25 GMT -8
Normally I'm right there with this kind of, "be greedy when others are scared mentality." However, I've been using margin to buy shares on the way down for a swing trade. I figured I'd actually check my account today and realized I'm pretty darn close to 100% margin. And what does this mean boys & girls? It means if WS reacts poorly to our earnings today I get hit with my first ever margin call. So I went in today and sold some margined shares for a very small loss ( <$100) to give me some decent breathing room. Relying on the 200 day SMA to provide support in the event we sell off. The underlying good news is that I bought into Apple in the mid 100s so I'm playing with house money anyway. Not touching my long shares at all. It's good to be safe. But FYI, there's normally a decent cushion between when they'll let you keep on buying more on margin, and when you get a margin call. It's been a while since I've been near those numbers, but with Datek/TDAmeritrade, and dealing with just stock, I think they let you have up to half on margin (so on a $100k account, a total of $200k in stocks). You got a margin call down at 35% equity, so $35k value on $100k of stocks. With a concentrated portfolio (they didn't like that I was nearly all in AAPL in 2000) that percentage was higher, at 40% I believe. So $40k value on $100k of stocks. Whereas the buying limit again was 50%, so only $80k of stocks on that same $40k. What I'm getting at is if you are using margin, it pays to know those numbers. Margin calls tend to come at the wrong time....for me that was Oct 2000 and in Oct 2008. I still use margin when there is a good buying opportunity, and they currently charge me just 1.5% so it's less than AAPL's dividend. But I also try to at most have 20% on margin. Keep an eye on it and be proactive. But also know the rules.
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Post by applemuncher on Oct 25, 2012 9:08:54 GMT -8
The stock is going to go up or down based Q1 forecast, product availability due to supply chain and manufacturing challenges, and future GM estimates. It is clear to me that Apple is winding down their relationship with Samsung. Bringing on new suppliers is expensive and can cause production issues. The good news is that I'm sure demand will be off the charts for all Apple products. Apple has never had a better product line. Now they just need to make enough of the damn things!
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 9:10:31 GMT -8
Kass being provocative again. His latest tweet: "Question I ask myself....Where are all the Apple bulls that pushed back my cautious remarks last month when the stock was at $700? Crickets!" Kass is an ass, but he has so far been right. I will say this, I bet he has insider info. They have shook me from my tree.
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Post by lance on Oct 25, 2012 9:14:12 GMT -8
if aapl goes down to 580 post results even with an inline with analyst estimates result it will be 10xeps plus cash and dividend so that is typically a key level that aapl is bought at. I think I would be hard pressed not to buy at those levels.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 25, 2012 9:20:55 GMT -8
Kass being provocative again. His latest tweet: "Question I ask myself....Where are all the Apple bulls that pushed back my cautious remarks last month when the stock was at $700? Crickets!" Kass is an ass, but he has so far been right. I will say this, I bet he has insider info. They have shook me from my tree. Kass doesn't have insider info.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 9:22:34 GMT -8
The real problem is Q1. Last year had 14 weeks, this year only 13. Apple has to jump over a high hurdle just to beat last years number which had an insane GM. All the products were in the pipeline last year, this year is just so different.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 25, 2012 9:25:04 GMT -8
Kass is an ass, but he has so far been right. I will say this, I bet he has insider info. They have shook me from my tree. Kass doesn't have insider info. If he did, he would be even more of an ass, given his prior bull shit calls to get out of the stock. He likes the attention and notoriety. Lets see how he looks a year from now.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 9:25:47 GMT -8
Kass is an ass, but he has so far been right. No, he hasn't been right. He has forever been claiming that AAPL has peaked and will enter a phase of long-term decline. Just because AAPL goes into one of its multiple-times-per-year correction does not make him correct. Also, when he claims that the bulls are silent instead of trying to engage him, he is simply flat-out lying.
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 25, 2012 9:26:32 GMT -8
a friend of mine tell me, if this forum is full of fear, its time to buy. the reverse apply. Looks like he is right. fundamental has never change, those fear is created by the noise the media bring. if you are not holding apple share, buy some now since this forum is full of fear, if you have the share hold. 4 months later you will harvest the fruit. Almost guarantee, history tell
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Post by rickag on Oct 25, 2012 9:26:54 GMT -8
Kass being provocative again. His latest tweet: "Question I ask myself....Where are all the Apple bulls that pushed back my cautious remarks last month when the stock was at $700? Crickets!" Kass is an ass, but he has so far been right. I will say this, I bet he has insider info. They have shook me from my tree. You're right about Kass being an @55, but he has not been right in that he denies Apple fundamentals as pointed out by Andy Zaky. AAPL is being pummeled but not due to fundamentals. I just wish I had reserved more cash, I'm down to < 12% of my initial investments for buying this WTF sale and will buy back in only if AAPL falls to around the 200 SMA.
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Post by jeffi on Oct 25, 2012 9:27:31 GMT -8
Kass being provocative again. His latest tweet: "Question I ask myself....Where are all the Apple bulls that pushed back my cautious remarks last month when the stock was at $700? Crickets!" Kass is an ass, but he has so far been right. I will say this, I bet he has insider info. They have shook me from my tree. Kass does not have inside information. He does not understand Apple. He understands short term price fluctuations. Kass has been wrong on Apple predictions for the last 5 years. In other words, ignore him if you are investing in Apple. I subscribe to Kass and have made a lot of money because of him. But, he gets many things wrong, and Apple repeatedly. I now email Kass facts on Apple. I will continue emailing him until he "gets it". It will probably take 6 months. He reads some of them as he has occasionally responded.
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 25, 2012 9:34:33 GMT -8
i am value investor, i look at fundamental. I am pretty sure consumer still like apple product because the quality of the product and brand image. Enterprise would have strong demand for the ipad because of product quality, stability of the form factor, OS security. The only limit for the ipad usage in enterprise is human imagination.demand should be great down the road. so, sit back and relax, enjoy the show of this volatility.Its a billion dollar show that you would not see in the cinema.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 25, 2012 9:47:17 GMT -8
Kass being provocative again. His latest tweet: "Question I ask myself....Where are all the Apple bulls that pushed back my cautious remarks last month when the stock was at $700? Crickets!" Kass is an ass, but he has so far been right. I will say this, I bet he has insider info. They have shook me from my tree. I'm not so sure he is right as much as he is part of the machine, and is tuned into the workings of the hedgies because he happens to run one.
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