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Post by chiongleng on Oct 25, 2012 9:48:31 GMT -8
i goto singtel in singapore for re-contract to the iphone5, the counter told me that iphone5 is out of stock island wide, this might appear tobe supply constraint issue. if you look at it the other angle, its a happy issue , at least there is order.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 9:51:28 GMT -8
Just a thought, not that anybody should trade on this, but: on Tuesday did TC look or act like somebody who was dreading today?
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Post by flyonthewall on Oct 25, 2012 9:55:16 GMT -8
Here in Denmark, the Apple ecosystem is growing incredibly fast. My wife, who works for the national health care system, said the iPhone is being adopted by her unit and that the entire staff will soon have new iPads for their patient work. We see this in many enterprises wherever we go. On another good note, I just read another article by our prolific Horace Dediu. Here is the link: Chances that global iPhone sales topped 27 million last quarter are looking better Foreshadowing iPhone salesSorry if this is a re-post.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 9:55:34 GMT -8
Someone I follow just tweeted this: "Going through Q3 ER Transcript...iPad sales to China didnt count...Mac sales to China didnt count so all those in this Q4 results"
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 9:57:00 GMT -8
Hedged myself just in case but ---- refuse to be shaken out -- I'm hanging on for dear life like the teeth on the zipper of my tight pair of jeans!
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Post by terps530 on Oct 25, 2012 9:57:08 GMT -8
Someone I follow just tweeted this: "Going through Q3 ER Transcript...iPad sales to China didnt count...Mac sales to China didnt count so all those in this Q4 results" how could sales not count for the quarter?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 10:00:23 GMT -8
Someone I follow just tweeted this: "Going through Q3 ER Transcript...iPad sales to China didnt count...Mac sales to China didnt count so all those in this Q4 results" how could sales not count for the quarter? I am assuming because of shipped date and end of 3rd qtr date no lining up. I have not verified that any of this is correct but there are some here who will know it right away.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 10:00:35 GMT -8
Just a thought, not that anybody should trade on this, but: on Tuesday did TC look or act like somebody who was dreading today? Many ways to interpret, he did drop the ipad issue. I am concerned about sell-through and channel with the iphone now. Those guys put up a pretty good front knowing SJ was on his death bed. They are true professionals. I am fighting so many emotions now I am a basket case. I truly am sorry for how I am acting.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 10:03:22 GMT -8
Just a thought, not that anybody should trade on this, but: on Tuesday did TC look or act like somebody who was dreading today? Many ways to interpret, he did drop the ipad issue. I am concerned about sell-through and channel with the iphone now. Those guys put up a pretty good front knowing SJ was on his death bed. They are true professionals. I am fighting so many emotions now I am a basket case. I truly am sorry for how I am acting. We're all in this together ... truth is that if we could just fast-forward 6 to 12 mos we would all feel fine looking back to today...but if it was that easy, the rewards wouldn't be that great. I somehow think we will be fine but I'm a bit nervous as well.
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 25, 2012 10:04:03 GMT -8
I would suggest those who are fear about apple future to start search the web about the usage of ipad in, school, hospital, food chain, properties and insurance industries. It would surprise you. The enterprise game just started with the introduction of the ipad mini
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Post by Lstream on Oct 25, 2012 10:04:48 GMT -8
Just a thought, not that anybody should trade on this, but: on Tuesday did TC look or act like somebody who was dreading today? I put this into "you are way over-thinking this" category.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 25, 2012 10:05:14 GMT -8
Hedged myself just in case but ---- refuse to be shaken out -- I'm hanging on for dear life like the teeth on the zipper of my tight pair of jeans!LMAO I love the self-deprecating humor, Phoebes.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 10:07:59 GMT -8
Hedged myself just in case but ---- refuse to be shaken out -- I'm hanging on for dear life like the teeth on the zipper of my tight pair of jeans!LMAO I love the self-deprecating humor, Phoebes. Yeah - when I stress I eat - and I refuse to buy a larger size! It's a girl thing.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 10:10:29 GMT -8
...I am fighting so many emotions now I am a basket case. I truly am sorry for how I am acting. Oh yeah, like the rest of us are sooo much better!
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 10:11:15 GMT -8
Just been listening to Horace Dediu's latest podcast, talking about Apple's capital expenditure. Which increases production capacity, but not high enough to satisfy initial surge. Ergo, "Supply Constraints" are built in, and not a surprise to Apple.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 10:11:36 GMT -8
So the AAPL analyst at Robert Baird just said that ATT mentioned on their call yesterday that the supply of iPhones has become more normalized so that they may be getting better arrival dates and phones into the consumers hands. I didn't listen to the call -- did anyone here hear that comment from them because concern really is the supply side not the demand and that would definitely be a positive going into this next qtr.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 25, 2012 10:12:33 GMT -8
I am fighting so many emotions now I am a basket case. I truly am sorry for how I am acting. Go outside and rake leafs, chop wood, dig a ditch, or something. Get some aggression out in a good way. Or, look at AAPL in a new light. Is demand higher or lower than it was a year ago. If higher, what's a conservative estimate for that growth, and how does that change earnings? Assuming only a modest drop in the annual P/E ratios, where does that put the stock? Either method makes me feel better.
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 25, 2012 10:16:06 GMT -8
i have been in industrial design work for machinery for semiconductor industries, the price to pay for a monitor with accessory to mount the monitor and keyboard and mouse can easily buy 3 iPad, the worst case is the monitor size is getting bigger but the machine foot print is getting smaller. At one point we have to look at ipad to sota lve this issue because its cheap, easy to install and can transmit data wirelessly. Have enquiries from customer to wire up production floor monitoring system with 15 PC. it cost almost US$150k. With little creativity, the iPad system may cost only fraction of it.
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Post by bryanyc on Oct 25, 2012 10:20:44 GMT -8
The stock is going to go up or down based Q1 forecast, product availability due to supply chain and manufacturing challenges, and future GM estimates. It is clear to me that Apple is winding down their relationship with Samsung. Bringing on new suppliers is expensive and can cause production issues. The good news is that I'm sure demand will be off the charts for all Apple products. Apple has never had a better product line. Now they just need to make enough of the damn things! I agree. I think the huge increase in capital expenditures is related to this severing of ties with Samsung and bringing online new and well equipped companies for the future. As such we may have a bit of a dip in the road here in terms of output as these new supplies get up to Apple speed and volume. Demand is not a question though. I find Panasonic's exiting of the TV space interesting. Perhaps they could be a partner for Apple in manufacturing.
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Post by ccs on Oct 25, 2012 10:26:13 GMT -8
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Post by stevereel on Oct 25, 2012 10:30:16 GMT -8
I'm rolling out my Feb 13s calls to April. 620s and 630s. Will hedge with short legs next time p/e moves over 15. Holding some Feb 13 570s.
Good trading wishes to all.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 10:31:10 GMT -8
So the AAPL analyst at Robert Baird just said that ATT mentioned on their call yesterday that the supply of iPhones has become more normalized so that they may be getting better arrival dates and phones into the consumers hands. I didn't listen to the call -- did anyone here hear that comment from them because concern really is the supply side not the demand and that would definitely be a positive going into this next qtr. Gee, sounds like demand (record breaking sky high demand) is starting to subside, although online orders are still showing limit of two per order, and 3-4 weeks til fulfillment. Still demand is subsiding, as it always does, and supply/demand balance will be achieved by end of January. But not before Apple ships 50,000,000+ during the December quarter.
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Post by capablanca on Oct 25, 2012 10:35:32 GMT -8
Kass being provocative again. His latest tweet: "Question I ask myself....Where are all the Apple bulls that pushed back my cautious remarks last month when the stock was at $700? Crickets!" Here I am, Doug. Bullish. Same as when AAPL was at $57, $78, and $125. Where were you? And by the way, AAPL is down 12% from its all time high and up 50% YTD. So it is BS to be throwing around "$90 drop". 1) It cherry picks the time period and 2) it is equivalent to a $9 drop for a $70 stock. You, Doug, are an average CNBC talking head. How does that make you feel?
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Post by onemoreanimal on Oct 25, 2012 10:35:48 GMT -8
I find Panasonic's exiting of the TV space interesting. Perhaps they could be a partner for Apple in manufacturing. I met with a Panasonic account rep at my company last week. He presented some impressive new high-res displays that are coming out soon. Panasonic may be dropping their consumer products, but they are still very much involved in the corporate space and their display production line is strong. An Apple deal wouldn't seem so far off.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 10:41:15 GMT -8
The real problem is Q1. Last year had 14 weeks, this year only 13. Apple has to jump over a high hurdle just to beat last years number which had an insane GM. All the products were in the pipeline last year, this year is just so different. Fourteen weeks? Not quite. iPhone represents over 50% of Apple's gross revenue. The iPhone 4S was available for about 12 weeks. The bar isn't nearly as high, as it would have been, had the iPhone 4S shipped for a full 14 weeks. Add about 6,000,000 units (an additional $1.25 to EPS) to last December's results, had iPhone shipped for a full 14 weeks.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 10:44:21 GMT -8
Just a thought, not that anybody should trade on this, but: on Tuesday did TC look or act like somebody who was dreading today? I put this into "you are way over-thinking this" category. I don't think so. TC looked more comfortable (familiarity with role?) than I've seen him in the past. Knowing numbers would disappoint would have caused stress on some level (degree unknown) and I didn't see any.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 10:50:56 GMT -8
Kass is an ass, but he has so far been right. I will say this, I bet he has insider info. They have shook me from my tree. Kass doesn't have insider info. I don't think Kass' comments are based on any real knowledge of Apple/AAPL. I think he is just smart enough to see the change in sentiment signaled by Put/Call ratios and other indicators. Kass gets that insight from querying the institutions, not Apple vendors. He couches his comments as though he is privy to Apple's performance (of which he has none). In the short term he proves more accurate than he is given credit for, but only because he has a sense of what the institutions are positioning themselves for.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 10:54:38 GMT -8
I find Panasonic's exiting of the TV space interesting. Perhaps they could be a partner for Apple in manufacturing. I met with a Panasonic account rep at my company last week. He presented some impressive new high-res displays that are coming out soon. Panasonic may be dropping their consumer products, but they are still very much involved in the corporate space and their display production line is strong. An Apple deal wouldn't seem so far off. For decades Panasonic was a contract manufacturer for major telecommunication telephone OEMs. Their consumer division was large, but nowhere near everything they did.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 10:57:30 GMT -8
Open after earnings is fairly predictable but to call the close is much less predictable regardless of earnings result. Looks like today we are pricing in a miss albeit a small one. As a long (long with 2014 LEAPs) I just want to put by his qtr behind us and move on.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 10:59:22 GMT -8
Kass is an ass, but he has so far been right. No, he hasn't been right. He has forever been claiming that AAPL has peaked and will enter a phase of long-term decline. Just because AAPL goes into one of its multiple-times-per-year correction does not make him correct. Sure it does, IN THE SHORT TERM, if his bearish prognostications precede those dips. I think we are focusing on his personality, our collective dislike of anybody that says something negative about our beloved Apple, and the misdirection his "long term" claims create, and not on his accuracy in the short term.
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