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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 11:00:28 GMT -8
I don't think so. TC looked more comfortable (familiarity with role?) than I've seen him in the past. Knowing numbers would disappoint would have caused stress on some level (degree unknown) and I didn't see any. Let's face it: either he was looking forward to announcing good news today, or he got laid Tuesday morning.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 11:01:05 GMT -8
a friend of mine tell me, if this forum is full of fear, its time to buy. the reverse apply. Looks like he is right. fundamental has never change, those fear is created by the noise the media bring. if you are not holding apple share, buy some now since this forum is full of fear, if you have the share hold. 4 months later you will harvest the fruit. Almost guarantee, history tell Hope I spell it correctly. Shih shih
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Post by fas550 on Oct 25, 2012 11:01:18 GMT -8
Kass doesn't have insider info. I don't think Kass' comments are based on any real knowledge of Apple/AAPL. I think he is just smart enough to see the change in sentiment signaled by Put/Call ratios and other indicators. Kass gets that insight from querying the institutions, not Apple vendors. He couches his comments as though he is privy to Apple's performance (of which he has none). In the short term he proves more accurate than he is given credit for, but only because he has a sense of what the institutions are positioning themselves for. Reminds me of some knucklehead just looking for attention and dumb ass comments like his are all that's going to get him attention.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 11:02:13 GMT -8
Sure it does, IN THE SHORT TERM, if his bearish prognostications precede those dips. I think we are focusing on his personality, our collective dislike of anybody that says something negative about our beloved Apple, and the misdirection his "long term" claims create, and not on his accuracy in the short term. So you're saying that he has actually been accurate in the short term? That his prior announcements that AAPL had peaked and it was all downhill for the future reliably preceded corrections???
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 11:04:27 GMT -8
Kass is an ass, but he has so far been right. I will say this, I bet he has insider info. They have shook me from my tree. I'm not so sure he is right as much as he is part of the machine, and is tuned into the workings of the hedgies because he happens to run one. Rutgersguy gets it.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 25, 2012 11:05:02 GMT -8
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Post by bryanyc on Oct 25, 2012 11:06:31 GMT -8
For decades Panasonic was a contract manufacturer for major telecommunication telephone OEMs. Their consumer division was large, but nowhere near everything they did. They also produce great camera and video equipment and manufacture some excellent lenses designed (and branded) by Leica for the Panasonic Lumix cameras.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 11:07:55 GMT -8
i goto singtel in singapore for re-contract to the iphone5, the counter told me that iphone5 is out of stock island wide, this might appear tobe supply constraint issue. if you look at it the other angle, its a happy issue , at least there is order. RED would be the correct color to view this issue in.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 25, 2012 11:14:57 GMT -8
a friend of mine tell me, if this forum is full of fear, its time to buy. the reverse apply. Looks like he is right. fundamental has never change, those fear is created by the noise the media bring. if you are not holding apple share, buy some now since this forum is full of fear, if you have the share hold. 4 months later you will harvest the fruit. Almost guarantee, history tell Hope I spell it correctly. Shih shih xie xie
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Post by podboy on Oct 25, 2012 11:16:14 GMT -8
Keep calm, carry on. Just be thankful that we have additional income we can invest in the market. Everything will be fine.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 11:17:16 GMT -8
Sure it does, IN THE SHORT TERM, if his bearish prognostications precede those dips. I think we are focusing on his personality, our collective dislike of anybody that says something negative about our beloved Apple, and the misdirection his "long term" claims create, and not on his accuracy in the short term. So you're saying that he has actually been accurate in the short term? That his prior announcements that AAPL had peaked and it was all downhill for the future reliably preceded corrections??? I don't have enough historical data to confirm this thought, but Kass has been habitually calling for an AAPL crash (ignore his long term mantra as hedge funds are not, by definition, long term investors), and getting it right IN THE SHORT TERM. See my posts regarding institutions trading long term for share appreciation, short term for cash generation, trading between quarterly reports to hide trade levels that exceed charter and regulatory limits, and Put/Call ratios. It's all connected.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 11:18:06 GMT -8
Hope I spell it correctly. Shih shih xie xie Thanks
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Post by rosie on Oct 25, 2012 11:18:49 GMT -8
thanx! really excellent overview. he doesn't disappoint.
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Post by rosie on Oct 25, 2012 11:23:02 GMT -8
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 25, 2012 11:26:59 GMT -8
At times like this, I often take to looking at the two year chart of AAPL, and remind myself that AAPL does not stay down longer than a quarter (even after April, it did come back and approach the ATH in July; and, after July, it was only 2 months to another ATH). I think Gregg may have said this in another post.
The other things I look at are PE (now about 14.3, but soon to go to 13.4 in about 2 hours), and the cash/price ratio, and realize just how much we are on the lower end of the range of typical values, and it gives me some reassurance we'll be okay. In fact, 13.4 was the PE after we fell following the July earnings call, and we'll be there later today.
And a drop to 585 - should this even happen - would bring the PE to 12.9, which we last saw in May at 522 (when it went to 12.7 during that very somber environment we had back then). Heck, even last Black Friday, when I personally thought it couldn't get any worse, we had only hit a PE=13.2.
So I think we'll be okay.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 25, 2012 11:27:29 GMT -8
Open after earnings is fairly predictable but to call the close is much less predictable regardless of earnings result. Looks like today we are pricing in a miss albeit a small one. As a long (long with 2014 LEAPs) I just want to put by his qtr behind us and move on. yea but april '12 we went down hard for 10 days prior, as well of day of, and then bounced from 560 close to 615 next day.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Oct 25, 2012 11:28:17 GMT -8
If i remember correctly from previous quarters, the numbers are published about 30 minutes before the actual call begins. Where do you go to see these numbers?
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 11:29:50 GMT -8
So, since I haven't been doing this that long, I need to ask: aren't these IVs on the high side even for earnings day?
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 11:31:44 GMT -8
This past year has been especially difficult for me (investing in AAPL). Out of adversity comes opportunity, so while trying to understand the cause of WTF sales events I looked deeper into the TRADING data. Mind you, I did not try to make sense of AAPL moves by examining chart patterns. My method was to find a logic in the shifting trade volumes, cash flows and reasoning behind apparent changes in investor sentiment.
I think I have determined behind the scenes mechanics that account for WTF sales, and their timing. You could call it manipulation, but I prefer to call it profit maximization.
I look forward to future AAPL trading like I have never done before. I'm going to piggy back (a little behind their lead) the strategies of the hedge funds. Their arrogance (I know something you don't know), and in quest of immortality, they can't help tipping their hand.
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Post by jeffi on Oct 25, 2012 11:33:09 GMT -8
No, he hasn't been right. He has forever been claiming that AAPL has peaked and will enter a phase of long-term decline. Just because AAPL goes into one of its multiple-times-per-year correction does not make him correct. Sure it does, IN THE SHORT TERM, if his bearish prognostications precede those dips. I think we are focusing on his personality, our collective dislike of anybody that says something negative about our beloved Apple, and the misdirection his "long term" claims create, and not on his accuracy in the short term. Sorry Gregg... No he did not even put his money where his mouth was this time. He posts when he shorts. When he posted his anti Apple tirade he did not go short. He has shorted GS, AX, C, and others but not AAPL. He simply does not understand why the Apple business model works and this is why he is forever wrong about investment calls on AAPL.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 25, 2012 11:34:22 GMT -8
So, since I haven't been doing this that long, I need to ask: aren't these IVs on the high side even for earnings day? No, but you will be amazed at what happens to the IV the next three days. Like a balloon pop
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Post by spindo on Oct 25, 2012 11:34:33 GMT -8
Apple to start internet streaming radio service early next year. Pandora shares getting hit.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 25, 2012 11:36:17 GMT -8
Apple to start internet streaming radio service early next year. Pandora shares getting hit. But it's a rumor on the AAPL side - and fact that Pandora got halted.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 11:41:02 GMT -8
At times like this, I often take to looking at the two year chart of AAPL, and remind myself that AAPL does not stay down longer than a quarter (even after April, it did come back and approach the ATH in July; and, after July, it was only 2 months to another ATH). I think Gregg may have said this in another post. So I think we'll be okay. AAPL's low ISM ratio, with respect to AMZN, GOOG and others, is the result of the STRENGTH of Apple. Think about it, if you were going to engage a strategy that resulted in WTF sales (which maximizes your profits) you would want to do it with a firm strong enough to repeatedly (predictably) get up time and again, after being knocked down. AAPL's ISM can't grow as it would otherwise, because it can't in the quarterly time frame of hedge fund investing. Without hedge fund participation, AAPL would be able to rise to it true market value. AAPL is especially sensitive to this BECAUSE it is so strong, not because Wall Street doesn't get it. Wall Street DOES get it, and they are making billions doing it. AAPL is a victim of Apple's strength. Think about it.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 25, 2012 11:42:08 GMT -8
So, since I haven't been doing this that long, I need to ask: aren't these IVs on the high side even for earnings day? No, but you will be amazed at what happens to the IV the next three days. Like a balloon pop Oh, I know where we're headed tomorrow ;-) I just did not expect to be pushing so high today. Specifically, I'm looking at the weeklies expiring tomorrow: high before earnings, certainly, but >100% ATM, WTF??? Obviously contract writers expect a move ;-)
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 25, 2012 11:45:54 GMT -8
bought the dip. again (how many times? I've lost track)
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 25, 2012 11:49:14 GMT -8
Just added to my Nov 680 and Feb 750 positions. Yep, bullish as always
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 25, 2012 11:50:56 GMT -8
Looking at the way it's dropping, it's almost like a really bad miss has already been announced.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 25, 2012 11:53:10 GMT -8
JAN'14 800/850 bull call spreads...IMHO, fabulous collapsed price here. Horribly undervalued at 8.60 midpoint.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 25, 2012 11:54:23 GMT -8
Not bad, not bad. I don't have so much of a bet as I do an "investment" trade into the future. Look past this quarter and even the next and I see some savvy moves by management. Probably a little like Scott's Tier 1 play in terms of % of portfolio at risk, but nowhere near as explosive. I've prepared myself to wait it out until at least March or so if I must. I can still lose everything on the bet, but fundamentals gives me the conviction I need, not technicals. Scaling in is never a bad idea, IMHO. Best of luck, everybody!
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