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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2012 23:38:26 GMT -8
Post earnings: Up or down?
In other news, iPad mini available for preorder - 2 weeks shipping.
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Post by mjuarez on Oct 25, 2012 23:59:03 GMT -8
I've been trying to think about anything other than AAPL for the last few hours. The big jump back from the depths in AH was reassuring.
My iPad Mini is ordered, supposed delivery is "mid-November". Got a white one, 16Gb Verizon, along with a blue smart cover. Also ordered a couple of the damn new connector cables, which are ALWAYS out at the local Apple store.
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Post by rob_london on Oct 26, 2012 0:51:13 GMT -8
Large annual increase in PP&E and R&D. What are Apple planning for 2013?
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Post by rob_london on Oct 26, 2012 0:54:24 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Oct 26, 2012 1:17:12 GMT -8
The big jump back from the depths in AH was reassuring. Have a feeling that was all about the options. Lots of 600 puts out there. Those guys dived in and bought anything below 600 in order to capture their profit.
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Post by cambrose on Oct 26, 2012 1:26:12 GMT -8
Just ordered my iPad mini 32GB Black. Shipping 11/2-11/6. Had planned for 2 but just picking one up for now. If it rocks, there will be 4 more on order.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 26, 2012 1:31:14 GMT -8
The big jump back from the depths in AH was reassuring. Have a feeling that was all about the options. Lots of 600 puts out there. Those guys dived in and bought anything below 600 in order to capture their profit. Today's calls and options had such huge premiums yesterday, pumped up by analysts saying '"whatever happens with apple will be big, either $50 up or $50 down" - no change is netting some option sellers some huge profits.
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Post by blofeld on Oct 26, 2012 1:40:16 GMT -8
that was Goldman Sachs, advising people to buy straddles...
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Post by wheeles on Oct 26, 2012 1:45:00 GMT -8
Have a feeling that was all about the options. Lots of 600 puts out there. Those guys dived in and bought anything below 600 in order to capture their profit. Today's calls and options had such huge premiums yesterday, pumped up by analysts saying '"whatever happens with apple will be big, either $50 up or $50 down" - no change is netting some option sellers some huge profits. No doubt, but a lot of those 600s have been sitting there a while. Also the options sellers would also be keen to buy AAPL back above 600 too. So lots of incentive on both sides to either buy to capture profit, or buy to preserve premium and then sell for a profit anyway to also capture the premium. So it was one big arbitrage move from the depths back up again.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 26, 2012 1:47:23 GMT -8
that was Goldman Sachs, advising people to buy straddles... And their muppet clients went for it. We've since had a series of inside days instead as GS suck the volatility out.
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Post by blofeld on Oct 26, 2012 2:33:07 GMT -8
While I like the sound of Q1, from the earnings call, I am getting a bit unnerved by the much smaller earnings beats in the last 2 quarters. Adding in the miss in Q4-11, the track record is getting distinctly mixed. Yes, there is incredible growth for a company this big and there are high profits, plus GM will rise as the production ramps up, but I think it may take a little longer than many people in the Zaky/Nansen/Braeburn camp had estimated to get annual EPS above 50 than hoped...
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Post by Big Al on Oct 26, 2012 2:46:24 GMT -8
Bought some April 700 calls this morning. AAPL might go lower in the next few days or weeks (probably $580-590, not totally impossible $560), but I don't think that it will stay there for very long. Down to 20% cash.
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Post by qualitywte on Oct 26, 2012 3:06:24 GMT -8
While I like the sound of Q1, from the earnings call, I am getting a bit unnerved by the much smaller earnings beats in the last 2 quarters. Adding in the miss in Q4-11, the track record is getting distinctly mixed. Yes, there is incredible growth for a company this big and there are high profits, plus GM will rise as the production ramps up, but I think it may take a little longer than many people in the Zaky/Nansen/Braeburn camp had estimated to get annual EPS above 50 than hoped... Average $12.50/qtr. (13.50 Q1 and Q2, 11.50 Q3 and Q4) its very possible
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 26, 2012 3:18:41 GMT -8
The earnings call transcript is up. seekingalpha.com/article/952971-apple-s-ceo-discusses-f4q12-results-earnings-call-transcript"We expect OpEx to be about $4.05 billion including about $485 million related to stock-based compensation expense. We expect OI&E to be about $380 million, and we expect the tax rate to be about 26%. We are targeting EPS of about $11.75. ...... The change year-over-year is being driven by a couple of things, so first of all, last year included a 14th week, this year’s Q1 is a normal 13-week quarter. That along with a stronger U.S. dollar, and the change in gross margin, so let me talk to you about what we see for gross margin, but I’m going to go through some detail on a sequential basis, but not year-over-year. As you pointed out, this is the most prolific product period in Apple’s history. We have an unprecedented number of new product introductions over the last six weeks, and this has led to record levels of demand. New or re-priced versions of our products announced during this time frame represent over 80% of the total expected December quarter revenue. But there are costs associated with such dramatic change and demand. The iPhone 5, iPad Mini, iMac, MacBook Pro 13-inch, iPod Touch and iPod Nano have completely new form factors with great new features, and we’ve never before introduced so many new form factors at once. All of these products have higher costs than their predecessors, and therefore lower gross margins as they are at the height of the cost curve. ........... So in summary, we expect our gross margin to decline by about 400 basis points sequentially. We expect the benefit from positive leverage on a sequentially higher revenue and a greater mix of iPhone, but we expect these benefits will be more than offset by a number of factors. First, margins on new products are lower than their predecessors including the iPhone 5 and we have been aggressive with the iPad Mini. Second, we’ve lowered the price of the iPhone 4S and the iPhone 4. Third, we will experience transitionary cost associated with multiple new product ramp. Fourth, the high anticipated volume of iPhone and other new products will generate significantly greater deferred revenue sequentially. As you are aware, we defer a portion of our revenue with every device we sell, and amortize it back into revenue over the life of the device. In periods of exceptionally strong sales like the December quarter, the deferred amounts are significantly higher than the revenue amortized in from past sales. And fifth, the favorable items that benefited the gross margin in the September quarter are not expected to repeat in the December quarter. We will work hard to try and get down the cost curves and improve our manufacturing and other efficiencies as we successfully have done in the past. We ended this holiday season with our strongest product line-up ever, and we have great choices for customers. To be in a position to anticipate over $50 billion of demand for our products in a single quarter is a reflection of the incredible strength of our products and our business." Investopedia explains 'Basis Point - BPS'The relationship between percentage changes and basis points can be summarized as follows: 1% change = 100 basis points, and 0.01% = 1 basis point. Read more: www.investopedia.com/terms/b/basispoint.asp#ixzz2AOyRcwOuPlease check my math: 4% of $50 billion= $2 billion EPS=11.75 11.75+2=13.75 13 weeks instead of 14. 14 weeks=13.87 EPS 14/13.87=13/x x=12.88 SO, if last year was a 13 week period, EPS would have been 12.88 Can anyone figure the deferred revenue? How many dollars? From a previous quarter www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000119312512314552/d365704d10q.htmrevenue= 35 billion. Total deferred revenue=5.822 billion total non-Current deferred revenue=2.53 billion OTOH: total revenue expected=$52 billion compared to $46.3 billion. In conclusion: I don't think guidance was bad.
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Post by lulli on Oct 26, 2012 3:26:42 GMT -8
Bought some April 700 calls this morning. How did you do that with the markets closed?
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Post by blofeld on Oct 26, 2012 3:29:56 GMT -8
"In conclusion: I don't think guidance was bad. "
Well, no; 13% growth YOY is spectacular - for any company, but perhaps, not Apple. The real number will be bigger, but maybe not by much, judging from the fairly accurate guidance in the last couple of Q...
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Post by Big Al on Oct 26, 2012 3:30:28 GMT -8
Bought some April 700 calls this morning. How did you do that with the markets closed? I live in Germany and the markets here have been open for some time...
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Post by elmar on Oct 26, 2012 3:40:01 GMT -8
Ordered this morning an iPad Mini 32G, LTE at German Apple Store. Delivery: late November The WiFi only's do have a delivery of 2 weeks.
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Post by qualitywte on Oct 26, 2012 3:42:33 GMT -8
Ordered this morning an iPad Mini 32G, LTE at German Apple Store. Delivery: late November The WiFi only's do have a delivery of 2 weeks. Shouldn't we get a number of preorders from Apple on Monday?
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Post by Rupert on Oct 26, 2012 3:44:27 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Friday 10/26/2012
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Post by rickag on Oct 26, 2012 3:50:53 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Friday 10/26/2012 I have't said it in the past, but thank you for posting these tables.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 26, 2012 4:01:01 GMT -8
Picked up my parents a white 32 GB Wifi plus an Apple TV for Christmas.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 26, 2012 4:03:56 GMT -8
Black 32GB wifi and cellular (ATT)....mini....all mine mid-November. Since the sun came up and the world did not implode and I live to see another day .... now I can enjoy my morning cup of coffee Oh - and snuck in an AAPL TV - because....well, just because
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 26, 2012 4:09:46 GMT -8
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Post by darrenhd on Oct 26, 2012 4:11:39 GMT -8
We are up in pre-market to $612 as of 8:11 am EST ;D
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Post by blofeld on Oct 26, 2012 4:13:52 GMT -8
remember, PM doesn't "count"
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 26, 2012 4:21:43 GMT -8
612 had a lot of resistance yesterday - but we'll see. There were so many people on threads saying they wanted to buy but didn't want to get in front of earnings. I think buyers will step in but I don't know if it will be today or they will wait till after the weekend. All that said - lots of put open interest in 600's and 610's -- which is good. My mobile app telling me Max Pain this week is 615....and then I caveat everything with that it has been a big news week so all bets are off and numbers skewed. (Now I sound like iPad: "It works until it doesn't!"... ;D
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 26, 2012 4:25:25 GMT -8
FYI: Opco notes AAPL's supply output is significantly higher than in early October—a positive for the entire supply chain.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 26, 2012 4:27:40 GMT -8
Should we read anything into iTV being just a "hobby" to a "beloved hobby" as per Mr. Cook yesterday?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 26, 2012 4:31:13 GMT -8
Q3 GDP +2.0% on the high end of expectations - markets like it
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