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Post by wheeles on Oct 26, 2012 6:29:23 GMT -8
You're too kind. FWIW, the whole "did the gap fill" question is a little irrelevant as there is another gap just below the one in question.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 26, 2012 6:30:24 GMT -8
Ha ha. Berlusconi sentenced to 4 years in prison.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 26, 2012 6:35:50 GMT -8
OUCH!Third-quarter figures from IDC suggest that Samsung and Apple account for almost half of smartphones shipped. While HTC and ZTE continue to appear in the top five smartphone vendors worldwide, Nokia has dropped from the rankings and been replaced by Research in Motion.
Being beaten out by RIMM has got to sting!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 26, 2012 6:41:44 GMT -8
+1 I always love talking shop with Birdie!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 26, 2012 6:43:52 GMT -8
You're too kind. FWIW, the whole "did the gap fill" question is a little irrelevant as there is another gap just below the one in question. Birdie, is that a dividend-adjusted number showing you the gap below 585? I have to go back and look closer because my brain catalogued the 585-ish one as it happened...don't remember one before that.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 26, 2012 6:54:29 GMT -8
The sandbag ratio this time was 1.133 as compared to 1.367 for the past 10 quarters, 1.285 of the past 5 quarters including this one, 1.218 for CY 2012 3 quarters. Are you referring to EPS when you say this?
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Post by jeffi on Oct 26, 2012 6:59:52 GMT -8
My email to Doug Kass regarding his latest Apple rant...
Doug
1. Yes, I'm probably too hostile. Mea culpa. 2. Same team, yes. 3. Disagree: Incorrect facts are/ is mis-information. 4. You state 20% long term growth will not continue? You are wrong about the past growth rate as it has been substantially higher. Apple's annual growth rate has exceeded 40+% for about 5 years running. 5. You state you have not been bearish on Apple until recently. That does not reconcile with numerous calls you have made to sell Apple repeatedly since 2007. Therefore, you have done your readers a disservice when it comes to investing in Apple since 2007. 6. Your entitled to your view that things are changing. Just note that your record has been wrong regarding investing in this fruit company. 7. Your short term trading calls on Apple have been prescient. Those successes were not the result of the fundamentals but accurate calls on over bought conditions as Apple's fundamentals have not changed. 8. Apple's margins have recently declined but are not in terminal decline. The margin decline is a function of the product mix changing (lower margins on iPad than iPhones) and lower margins on new products. Apple has sold premium products at premium prices for about 8 straight years. Those margins have continually drifted higher (year over year) as Apple has improved their scale and strengthened their brand. 9. You mistakenly think that innovation requires radical new products or that the lack of means Apple is not innovating. Apple regularly innovates by updating existing products. Apple does not need entirely new breakthrough products to maintain their margins. If one looks at their long history of their iMacs, iPods, and iPhones one will see that radical breakthroughs were not necessary to maintain industry leading margins. 10. Nothing has changed with apple's business model. In fact their competitive position has never been stronger as their eco-system has strengthened. Apple makes most of the profits in both the cellphone industry and the tablet market. This does not partake weakness or forsake change. When it comes to investing in Apple, expect more of the same (positive long term returns).
Doug responded... "fair points, all".
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 26, 2012 7:01:25 GMT -8
singtel singapore just updated their site stated iphone 5 stock available island wide. good new. will go buy it tomorrow morning
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Post by wheeles on Oct 26, 2012 7:01:56 GMT -8
You're too kind. FWIW, the whole "did the gap fill" question is a little irrelevant as there is another gap just below the one in question. Birdie, is that a dividend-adjusted number showing you the gap below 585? I have to go back and look closer because my brain catalogued the 585-ish one as it happened...don't remember one before that. That's odd. Perhaps that's where the discrepancy is. On Prophet it's 583.33, whereas on TOS it's 585.83. That's really screwy. Really stupid that Prophet adjusts for the dividend.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 26, 2012 7:02:23 GMT -8
Bezos must have made a pact with the devil .... that's the only explanation. If he did it, was a bad pact, since his company is losing money. Maybe the EO's did to keep the stock up. Should we read anything into iTV being just a "hobby" to a "beloved hobby" as per Mr. Cook yesterday? Well a hobby that brings in $500M in annual revenues is pretty beloved. My hobbies all cost money.
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Oct 26, 2012 7:05:01 GMT -8
Large annual increase in PP&E and R&D. What are Apple planning for 2013? They're planning on selling a whole bunch of the product lines that they have - iPhone 5 ( & 4 lineup), iPad, iPad mini, Macbook Pro's, iMac, and iPod. And, oh, by the way, every product line they have is either brand new or has been completely redesigned in the past 3 months. All of which takes enormous investments in PP&E and realized expenses in R&D. It also increases increases desirability of Apple products and increases the distance between Apple and the competition.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 26, 2012 7:13:37 GMT -8
So, I'm watching some 700-750 level options for a dice roll for Feb '13.
Specifically, the feb '13 720 has been staying the same, or even going up, as Apple has been dropping...
So that would mean the demand for calls is increasing? edit: or just IV going up?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 26, 2012 7:15:50 GMT -8
The sandbag ratio this time was 1.133 as compared to 1.367 for the past 10 quarters, 1.285 of the past 5 quarters including this one, 1.218 for CY 2012 3 quarters. Are you referring to EPS when you say this? yes. Attachments:
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 26, 2012 7:21:14 GMT -8
So that would mean the demand for calls is increasing? edit: or just IV going up? Same thing.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 26, 2012 7:30:06 GMT -8
Are you referring to EPS when you say this? yes. In fairness, it looks as if the Sandbag Ratio™ trend is actually up for Q1's and Q2's.
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Post by darrenhd on Oct 26, 2012 8:09:02 GMT -8
This price action is crazy. We better bounce off the 200 day or I'll be severely pissed.
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Post by doublerainbow on Oct 26, 2012 8:14:06 GMT -8
didn't think I'd see the 500s again! I guess the bigger you are the harder you fall... hope the end is near! I don't want to lose everything I made this year lol
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 26, 2012 8:14:08 GMT -8
AAPL has been a "show me" stock for a long time. Now, with margin concerns on the front burner, "show me" is absolutely the name of the game. As in, gross margin beat needs to be substantial (it will be, it always is), and then AAPL needs to guide sequential gross margin up in FQ2. This will also occur.
Edited to add quite a bit. Mini will be accretive to EPS while bringing down overall gross margin. It's funny how people talk about this on CNBC. They don't understand the concept of incremental revenue and incremental margin dollars even in the face of declining margins. Why is that? Because right now the only thing they can "prove" is that gross margin % guidance is down. They can't "prove" Mini will be accretive to EPS yet.
If Mini is the grand slam home run I expect it to be, Apple's share of the tablet market will grow substantially, and it will grow in a rapidly growing market. That is what we've seen with iPhone for years (and continue to see). Apple couldn't be positioned any better in these two markets. One just hopes they are capable of doubling and tripling production in the coming years because that's all they really need to do. A rising tide lifts all boats, and Apple's boat is winning the race already.
Can you imagine what will happen to Apple's margins once the tablet market matures a bit from here? I'm not saying Apple will increase price or reduce quality but its scale will obviously increase and the services Apple can layer on top of its platform will be immense. In smartphones, Android is a viable alternative for developers even if it's disjointed. In tablets, there's nothing else really. If Apple has 70%+ share in this space, developers will never write apps anywhere else. Apple's passbook will become the default industry standard for mobile payments eventually. The opportunities are extraordinary. Look what MSFT was able to do for decades with Windows and Office. Apple is in a unique position to be the next MSFT in terms of its dominance while actually maintaining and growing its already extraordinary profitability. It's really very interesting because it's unprecedented. I'm looking forward to watching it play out.
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Post by sazerac on Oct 26, 2012 8:19:29 GMT -8
Hi everyone, I'm a long time lurker here since I've invested in aapl last year, my first stock investment, thanks to all members for your insightful thinking. Looks like we're headed to 200SMA?
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Post by spoonman on Oct 26, 2012 8:22:05 GMT -8
what do you guys think about a Jan 14 800/850 call spread at this level? 740 bucks. returns over 500%. Seems safe enough given the time and if we do shoot up I can punch out with some decent gains on the implicit valuation.
that's over 42% of gains away for max profit. prob won't get there but you never know.
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Post by darrenhd on Oct 26, 2012 8:24:30 GMT -8
AAPL has been a "show me" stock for a long time. Now, with margin concerns on the front burner, "show me" is absolutely the name of the game. As in, gross margin beat needs to be substantial (it will be, it always is), and then AAPL needs to guide sequential gross margin up in FQ2. This will also occur. I'm about to turn around and go short, but I'm hoping we bounce off the 200 day moving average which is like 588 area. If we breach that longs could be screwed...
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Post by lance on Oct 26, 2012 8:40:12 GMT -8
I think the issue with aapl medium term is EPS guidance next quarter. Because they guided to a reduction of earnings Y-O-Y for the quarter, investors will invest based on the fact apple management is telling the truth and eps will be 11.75. Therefore if you make that assumption EPS will be 42.04 after the January. Therefore if you go on basis aapl is a good buy at 10xEPS Plus cash per share you are looking at 560 zone as the place where most people believe the stock would be extremely cheap. Also it also gives people the idea that it will take 6 months for aapl to produce a report will potentially increase eps. Of course aapl will most likely beat its guidance, but because % beats have steadily reduced with Tim Cook as CEO, it may be a fair assumption that 10-20% beat could happen which would still result in a minimal increase to reduction in EPS. So it is possible aapl will trade flat for at least 3 months, barring some great news such as China Mobile Deal etc.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 26, 2012 8:41:55 GMT -8
Are they at work against JAN 13 calls already? As if last Friday didn't do enough damage to those. Or are we simply filling the gap into the 580s?
This bites.
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 26, 2012 8:42:47 GMT -8
I sometime suspect some of the fear in this board is self generated. When apple drop some member would post a very low number.Is this helpful?
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 26, 2012 8:46:24 GMT -8
I think the issue with aapl medium term is EPS guidance next quarter. Because they guided to a reduction of earnings Y-O-Y for the quarter, investors will invest based on the fact apple management is telling the truth and eps will be 11.75. Therefore if you make that assumption EPS will be 42.04 after the January. Therefore if you go on basis aapl is a good buy at 10xEPS Plus cash per share you are looking at 560 zone as the place where most people believe the stock would be extremely cheap. Also it also gives people the idea that it will take 6 months for aapl to produce a report will potentially increase eps. Of course aapl will most likely beat its guidance, but because % beats have steadily reduced with Tim Cook as CEO, it may be a fair assumption that 10-20% beat could happen which would still result in a minimal increase to reduction in EPS. So it is possible aapl will trade flat for at least 3 months, barring some great news such as China Mobile Deal etc. Good point. Ugh.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 26, 2012 8:58:37 GMT -8
AAPL has been a "show me" stock for a long time. Now, with margin concerns on the front burner, "show me" is absolutely the name of the game. As in, gross margin beat needs to be substantial (it will be, it always is), and then AAPL needs to guide sequential gross margin up in FQ2. This will also occur. I'm about to turn around and go short, but I'm hoping we bounce off the 200 day moving average which is like 588 area. If we breach that longs could be screwed...
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Post by wheeles on Oct 26, 2012 9:11:36 GMT -8
I sometime suspect some of the fear in this board is self generated. When apple drop some member would post a very low number.Is this helpful? That depends on whether it's an accurate assessment of what's likely to happen. You could ask exactly the same question regarding people that post a very high number. How helpful is that especially when the stock is going down?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 26, 2012 9:11:38 GMT -8
I think the issue with aapl medium term is EPS guidance next quarter. Because they guided to a reduction of earnings Y-O-Y for the quarter, investors will invest based on the fact apple management is telling the truth and eps will be 11.75. Therefore if you make that assumption EPS will be 42.04 after the January. Therefore if you go on basis aapl is a good buy at 10xEPS Plus cash per share you are looking at 560 zone as the place where most people believe the stock would be extremely cheap. Also it also gives people the idea that it will take 6 months for aapl to produce a report will potentially increase eps. Of course aapl will most likely beat its guidance, but because % beats have steadily reduced with Tim Cook as CEO, it may be a fair assumption that 10-20% beat could happen which would still result in a minimal increase to reduction in EPS. So it is possible aapl will trade flat for at least 3 months, barring some great news such as China Mobile Deal etc. I thought people would have thought 585 is a cheap zone -- where does the 560 number come from?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 26, 2012 9:13:00 GMT -8
AAPL has been a "show me" stock for a long time. Now, with margin concerns on the front burner, "show me" is absolutely the name of the game. As in, gross margin beat needs to be substantial (it will be, it always is), and then AAPL needs to guide sequential gross margin up in FQ2. This will also occur. I'm about to turn around and go short, but I'm hoping we bounce off the 200 day moving average which is like 588 area. If we breach that longs could be screwed... Are you staying short over the weekend? If so, are you not concerned about any comment from AAPL wrt the amount of minis they may have sold are is that irrelevant to your short?
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Post by wheeles on Oct 26, 2012 9:17:58 GMT -8
I thought people would have thought 585 is a cheap zone -- where does the 560 number come from? It's the weekly 50 EMA.
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