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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 27, 2012 7:33:57 GMT -8
Peter O. Gave us guidance for revs of 52 billion and said he was "pleased" to give that number. I don't take his use of that word as snark but as a hint that he is doing what he has done quarter after quarter.....giving guidance he knows will be beat by a minimum of 10%. Probably safely more...
So I'm using 58 billion as my minimum revenue number, with upside very possible if not likely.
GM of 40 may not happen, but it won't be 36% either. Oppy beats GM guidance by 300 basis points each quarter. This is a tough quarter with gobs of new products, supply issues, rollout challenges, so lets go with 38%. If TC's comments ob improved production of the iPhone 5 are true ( and why wouldn't they be), the worst bottlenecks may be behind us.
Currency hedges were a drag this last quarter, as was the anticipation/ demand factor. Both wont impact this quarter to the same extent.
I'm still working on product mix but my dull pencil sees $15.98 in earnings at this point.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 27, 2012 7:50:40 GMT -8
Hey, you guys are snapping up all the mini's! Leave some for other folks I generally have to hold the object before I buy it - when will they be on display at the stores? There is already a zagg keyboard cover for the mini: now there is a portable for you... kinda... netbook size.... hmmmmm It wasn't on display at the Verizon store I was in Friday afternoon. Maybe they can send them some of the black ones which didn't sell out right away.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 27, 2012 8:17:12 GMT -8
I penciled in 58 B also, but I will knock my GM down another notch.
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Post by hledgard on Oct 27, 2012 8:44:46 GMT -8
Time for a little compare and contrast, with the April/May event: April/May: Went from 644 to 522, a total drop of 122, or 18.9%. We got within 40 points or so of the 200-day MA. This went on for six (6) weeks of red candles. PE= 15.7 (@644) and 12.7 (@522) Sept/October: Went from 705 to 591 (for a cup of coffee), a drop so far of 114, or 16.2%. We got within about 6 points of the 200-day MA. [To match the April/May % drop, we would need a 133 point drop, which means down to 572, but I don't think I can take a drop like that below the "strong support" of the 200 MA, at around 585 currently.] Today is the end of the sixth week of red candles. PE = 16.57 (@705) and 13.9 (@591); 572 would give PE = 12.95, coming real close to the April/May low. Indeed, this is a very thoughtful compilation. Thanks for the good work. It is appreciated!
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 27, 2012 9:00:24 GMT -8
This is just a small portion of a Business Insider article but it was just reporting what Bezos had said...WTF- the guy just has diarrhea of the mouth and does not substantiate ANYTHING. He will be the next Bernie Madoff - I've seen this movie before - save this post for future reference.
"Amazon has another chest-thumping, but detail free, proclamation about Kindle sales.
It tells All Things D, "Wednesday was the $199 Kindle Fire HD’s biggest day of sales since launch and up 3x week over week."
Apple announced the iPad mini on Tuesday, so the clear suggestion is that people waited to see what Apple was releasing. Once they saw it, they opted for Amazon's less expensive option."
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 27, 2012 10:18:05 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 27, 2012 10:34:55 GMT -8
I was prepared to dissect Craig Mundie down to the bone. If only MSFT did not have Windows 8 around their neck, MSFT could be doing better. Kinect and other stuff has loads of potential.
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Post by joel90069 on Oct 27, 2012 10:38:48 GMT -8
This is just a small portion of a Business Insider article but it was just reporting what Bezos had said...WTF- the guy just has diarrhea of the mouth and does not substantiate ANYTHING. He will be the next Bernie Madoff - I've seen this movie before - save this post for future reference. "Amazon has another chest-thumping, but detail free, proclamation about Kindle sales. It tells All Things D, "Wednesday was the $199 Kindle Fire HD’s biggest day of sales since launch and up 3x week over week." Apple announced the iPad mini on Tuesday, so the clear suggestion is that people waited to see what Apple was releasing. Once they saw it, they opted for Amazon's less expensive option." I agree entirely. I travel about 10- 12 times a year and am on a trip to Kauai right now. I have NEVER seen anyone in an airport or on a flight with a Kindle Fire nor do I know anyone who has one. There were scores of iPads on my flight here. I realize my observations don't really mean much but something is just not right with Bezos' claims.
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Post by hellojapan on Oct 27, 2012 12:37:53 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 27, 2012 12:41:09 GMT -8
This is just a small portion of a Business Insider article but it was just reporting what Bezos had said...WTF- the guy just has diarrhea of the mouth and does not substantiate ANYTHING. He will be the next Bernie Madoff - I've seen this movie before - save this post for future reference. "Amazon has another chest-thumping, but detail free, proclamation about Kindle sales. It tells All Things D, "Wednesday was the $199 Kindle Fire HD’s biggest day of sales since launch and up 3x week over week." Apple announced the iPad mini on Tuesday, so the clear suggestion is that people waited to see what Apple was releasing. Once they saw it, they opted for Amazon's less expensive option." I agree entirely. I travel about 10- 12 times a year and am on a trip to Kauai right now. I have NEVER seen anyone in an airport or on a flight with a Kindle Fire nor do I know anyone who has one. There were scores of iPads on my flight here. I realize my observations don't really mean much but something is just not right with Bezos' claims. One reason for that, at least in international airports, is that Amazon is an English-only company, primarily US. Amazon doesn't sell foreign language stuff, or outside US or UK, AFAIK. So you won't see many foreign travelers with one of those Kindles. So if Amazon sells a mere 5 million of them, keep in mind that is without the Asian markets that Apple is already shipping into. I'll bet this never occurs to most tech talking heads when they extrapolate Mini sales.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 27, 2012 13:38:06 GMT -8
Does anyone think we will get any announcement this week on how sales went with the mini? Sadly, if they give a number and it's below expectations - the stock gets hit. If they don't give any number or make any announcement, the FUD will start that it must be bad news so there isn't any commentary being put out. You can't win. Maybe they should take the Bezos approach and say they sold three times more than they thought they would sell but not say what that original number was. Bezos pulls that crap all the time and the stock skyrockets. PS Are there any expectations on how minis the analysts or anyone else was expecting the first weekend. By the way - not ONE commercial anywhere! What gives...you would think the company had no cash at hand to pay for advertising!
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 27, 2012 13:55:06 GMT -8
I realize my observations don't really mean much... I disagree. It was shortly after I started noticing many more Mac laptops than ever in airports, that the stock started taking off.
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Post by newton on Oct 27, 2012 14:06:33 GMT -8
Apple at $604 is mighty tempting. I need some advice from y'all. I want to pick up a few more shares but I don't want to get in too soon. Should I wait?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 27, 2012 14:22:26 GMT -8
Does anyone think we will get any announcement this week on how sales went with the mini? Sadly, if they give a number and it's below expectations - the stock gets hit. If they don't give any number or make any announcement, the FUD will start that it must be bad news so there isn't any commentary being put out. You can't win. Maybe they should take the Bezos approach and say they sold three times more than they thought they would sell but not say what that original number was. Bezos pulls that crap all the time and the stock skyrockets. PS Are there any expectations on how minis the analysts or anyone else was expecting the first weekend. By the way - not ONE commercial anywhere! What gives...you would think the company had no cash at hand to pay for advertising! Phoebes, The mini is not in the stores until this next weekend so there would be no announcement until a week from Monday...if at all. I don't see the lack of ads as a negative. If there is an expected shortage of product due to high demand, the ads will start when people can walk in and buy...
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 27, 2012 14:26:26 GMT -8
Rushing to buy is a mistake, often. I line up my criteria of timing. I need 75 % of my questions to be Yes, before I buy. In a bear market, and we are in a bear market, stock will drop when u are not looking.
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Post by jcaron on Oct 27, 2012 14:46:37 GMT -8
Apple at $604 is mighty tempting. I need some advice from y'all. I want to pick up a few more shares but I don't want to get in too soon. Should I wait? Scale in.... Buy your total allocation in 3 lots or more..
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 27, 2012 14:48:58 GMT -8
Apple at $604 is mighty tempting. I need some advice from y'all. I want to pick up a few more shares but I don't want to get in too soon. Should I wait? Scale in.... Buy your total allocation in 3 lots or more.. +1
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Post by macziggy on Oct 27, 2012 14:58:59 GMT -8
This is just a small portion of a Business Insider article but it was just reporting what Bezos had said...WTF- the guy just has diarrhea of the mouth and does not substantiate ANYTHING. He will be the next Bernie Madoff - I've seen this movie before - save this post for future reference. "Amazon has another chest-thumping, but detail free, proclamation about Kindle sales. It tells All Things D, "Wednesday was the $199 Kindle Fire HD’s biggest day of sales since launch and up 3x week over week." Apple announced the iPad mini on Tuesday, so the clear suggestion is that people waited to see what Apple was releasing. Once they saw it, they opted for Amazon's less expensive option." I agree entirely. I travel about 10- 12 times a year and am on a trip to Kauai right now. I have NEVER seen anyone in an airport or on a flight with a Kindle Fire nor do I know anyone who has one. There were scores of iPads on my flight here. I realize my observations don't really mean much but something is just not right with Bezos' claims. I was on a visit to San Francisco with my family recently and did the Alcatraz tour. There was a guy with an iPad3 actually using it to take pictures of everything on Alcatraz. Very funny!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 27, 2012 14:59:03 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 27, 2012 15:33:42 GMT -8
Does anyone think we will get any announcement this week on how sales went with the mini? Sadly, if they give a number and it's below expectations - the stock gets hit. If they don't give any number or make any announcement, the FUD will start that it must be bad news so there isn't any commentary being put out. You can't win. Maybe they should take the Bezos approach and say they sold three times more than they thought they would sell but not say what that original number was. Bezos pulls that crap all the time and the stock skyrockets. PS Are there any expectations on how minis the analysts or anyone else was expecting the first weekend. By the way - not ONE commercial anywhere! What gives...you would think the company had no cash at hand to pay for advertising! Phoebes, The mini is not in the stores until this next weekend so there would be no announcement until a week from Monday...if at all. I don't see the lack of ads as a negative. If there is an expected shortage of product due to high demand, the ads will start when people can walk in and buy... Two things though: 1. With the iPhones we would get a "pre-order" number for the first weekend. They never waited till it was in the stores to give us a sense on how it was going. So I'm guessing you are saying that they do the iPad differently? 2. I still think they should run commercials just like they are doing for the iPod now....it creates a buzz and excitement. People chat about it - feel good about it. They should run a few commercials IMHO - just to let the world know how beautiful an experience it is and how adorable the size is.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 27, 2012 15:56:35 GMT -8
I think you are incorrect on the practice of announcing first weekend sales for any product. Because no pads (or phones before it) were delivered by mail or available for pickup in a store until a set date, here November 2 through 4, both pre-sales and first weekend sales are announced, if at all, on the Monday after availability...here November 5th
Anyone else, am I right here?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 27, 2012 16:02:33 GMT -8
I think you are incorrect on the practice of announcing first weekend sales for any product. Because no pads (or phones before it) were delivered by mail or available for pickup in a store until a set date, here November 2 through 4, both pre-sales and first weekend sales are announced, if at all, on the Monday after availability...here November 5th Anyone else, am I right here? Yes - I may be wrong on the timing- I sincerely can't remember right now but certainly if anyone remembers please offer the information. For some reason I thought it was after the first weekend but again - my brain is so fried after this week that I'm not certain. But as far as announcing amounts - didn't they (AAPL) announce the number of iPhone 5s shipped from that first weekend of pre-orders? I do believe so
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 27, 2012 16:10:19 GMT -8
Someone who subscribes to AZ just tweeted this - anyone here subscribe? If so, please elaborate:
Zacky: Will visit the low $600's between January and April after visiting the $730 to $750 level first. But it will get down to $630.
Zacky: So April spreads will be cheaper sometime between February and March. And whatever you do, don't buy $750+ either.
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Post by rosie on Oct 27, 2012 16:17:53 GMT -8
Someone who subscribes to AZ just tweeted this - anyone here subscribe? If so, please elaborate: Zacky: Will visit the low $600's between January and April after visiting the $730 to $750 level first. But it will get down to $630. Zacky: So April spreads will be cheaper sometime between February and March. And whatever you do, don't buy $750+ either. that's the best rumor I've heard in days and daze....let's just pretend it will happen. well, so far I am resisting that 32gb black mini that is still available to show up next friday. Instead I went shopping to order an upgraded sound system for my new iMac with a wireless speaker to answer it from the back of the house. And I also ordered a 12w charger for my iPad because w/the 10w it takes absolutely forever to get back to 100%. My finger was hovering soooo close to that little mini.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 27, 2012 16:31:00 GMT -8
Someone who subscribes to AZ just tweeted this - anyone here subscribe? If so, please elaborate: Zacky: Will visit the low $600's between January and April after visiting the $730 to $750 level first. But it will get down to $630. Zacky: So April spreads will be cheaper sometime between February and March. And whatever you do, don't buy $750+ either. There were actually three tweets in a row, with the first one being (and this will put things into context): "I noticed that several people are buying April spreads. Don't do that. It's a huge mistake. Buy Jan or July. No April."
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 27, 2012 16:31:45 GMT -8
Someone who subscribes to AZ just tweeted this - anyone here subscribe? If so, please elaborate: Zacky: Will visit the low $600's between January and April after visiting the $730 to $750 level first. But it will get down to $630. Zacky: So April spreads will be cheaper sometime between February and March. And whatever you do, don't buy $750+ either. that's the best rumor I've heard in days and daze....let's just pretend it will happen. well, so far I am resisting that 32gb black mini that is still available to show up next friday. Instead I went shopping to order an upgraded sound system for my new iMac with a wireless speaker to answer it from the back of the house. And I also ordered a 12w charger for my iPad because w/the 10w it takes absolutely forever to get back to 100%. My finger was hovering soooo close to that little mini. In the words of Nike just "do it!"
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Post by rosie on Oct 27, 2012 16:55:31 GMT -8
In the words of Nike just "do it!" I think that is in the words of Phoebes....thanx for the push. I just did! (green smart cover too). Is it Friday yet???
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 27, 2012 16:57:11 GMT -8
In the words of Nike just "do it!" I think that is in the words of Phoebes....thanx for the push. I just did! (green smart cover too). Is it Friday yet??? Just think of it as combat pay for the week at war we just had!
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Post by appledoc on Oct 27, 2012 17:27:49 GMT -8
Someone who subscribes to AZ just tweeted this - anyone here subscribe? If so, please elaborate: Zacky: Will visit the low $600's between January and April after visiting the $730 to $750 level first. But it will get down to $630. Zacky: So April spreads will be cheaper sometime between February and March. And whatever you do, don't buy $750+ either. There were actually three tweets in a row, with the first one being (and this will put things into context): "I noticed that several people are buying April spreads. Don't do that. It's a huge mistake. Buy Jan or July. No April. I understood this to say that he expects a run up to 730-750 in anticipation of January earnings. Then a disappointing Q1 which results in the PPS coming back down to current levels before a blowout Q2 is announced in April. Thus, the value of the July spreads. Production of the iPhone 5 and iPad mini many not be in full force until Q2. That's what I think Andy is thinking.
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Post by lobo on Oct 27, 2012 17:37:07 GMT -8
Hello everyone!
I've been visiting the AFB for the last few months and have been trying to soak up everyones massive Apple wisdom. I was actually introduced to the AFB and all things Apple by RickAg and have found it informative and sometimes entertaining. (You folks have a heck of a board here.)
And now I finally have my first question. I jumped into the world of Apple options a few months ago and have several BCS's in place. I've traded some stocks in the past, but this is my first foray into the world of options. I only have (2) relatively close BCS positions and rest are Jan 14's & Jan15's. The (2) closer positions are:
Feb 13 670 / 675 (4 of them) Apr 13 750 / 770 (2 of them)
I had been fairly comfortable with the Feb13 670/675's, heck they were in the money not that long ago. And I may have been drinking the Kool Aid when I bought the Apr 13 750/770's.
Now I'm looking at my options (pardon the pun.)
I'm consdering:
Selling (2) of my Feb13 670/675's on the next decent run up. And letting the other (2) ride to expiration with reduced exposure.
My Apr13 750/770's seem to be more of problem in the dark days of late October. I'm considering buying back the 770's and selling some 760's to help get back some of the investment and reduce my exposure. (Of course I will only be able to do this when things turn around and the clouds of doom lift during the next run up.)
So my question is, do these look like decent strategies, or have I missed an obvious path to salvation?
Remember I'm new to the world of options so even a relatively simple tactic that you guys use daily may be a revelation to me.
Any insight you folks can provide will be appreciated.
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