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Post by jcaron on Oct 27, 2012 17:41:15 GMT -8
There were actually three tweets in a row, with the first one being (and this will put things into context): "I noticed that several people are buying April spreads. Don't do that. It's a huge mistake. Buy Jan or July. No April. I understood this to say that he expects a run up to 730-750 in anticipation of January earnings. Then a disappointing Q1 which results in the PPS coming back down to current levels before a blowout Q2 is announced in April. Thus, the value of the July spreads. Production of the iPhone 5 and iPad mini many not be in full force until Q2. That's what I think Andy is thinking. hmmmm, wasn't he expecting a solid beat this quarter? This may be an indication to go long and stay there :-) In all seriousness though, I dont think its a matter of apple getting iphone and ipad mini into full force, they should do that half way into Q1 (at least for iphone 5), it becomes more a matter of the initial demand surge ending so supply matches demand more closely.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2012 17:51:09 GMT -8
Hello everyone! The (2) closer positions are: Feb 13 670 / 675 (4 of them) Apr 13 750 / 770 (2 of them) I'm consdering: Selling (2) of my Feb13 670/675's on the next decent run up. And letting the other (2) ride to expiration with reduced exposure. I'm considering buying back the 770's and selling some 760's to help get back some of the investment and reduce my exposure. So my question is, do these look like decent strategies, or have I missed an obvious path to salvation? I wouldn't worry about any of your positions at this stage. You have lots of time for Apple to turn its ship around. In the meantime you might want to take advantage of current pricing to, as you pointed out, buy back the APR $770s. If you take that approach (which I heartily agree with, I would not consider reselling anything against your APR $750s until early January. At that time you may be able to sell the $770s for more than you paid for the $750s, increasing both your profit and cash, while eliminating your risk.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2012 17:57:21 GMT -8
In all seriousness though, I dont think its a matter of apple getting iphone and ipad mini into full force, they should do that half way into Q1 (at least for iphone 5), it becomes more a matter of the initial demand surge ending so supply matches demand more closely. Demand is going to exceed supply until Apple fixes its iP5 production problems. Watch delivery estimates closely for when that occurs. Demand not satisfied this quarter will carry over into FQ2. That should make the March quarter numbers very good (ala FQ2/2012).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 27, 2012 17:58:16 GMT -8
Does anybody have the full 10-K? I'm having trouble with the SEC's new format, and can't find it.
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Post by johng on Oct 27, 2012 18:07:28 GMT -8
Peter O. Gave us guidance for revs of 52 billion and said he was "pleased" to give that number. I don't take his use of that word as snark but as a hint that he is doing what he has done quarter after quarter.....giving guidance he knows will be beat by a minimum of 10%. Probably safely more... So I'm using 58 billion as my minimum revenue number, with upside very possible if not likely. GM of 40 may not happen, but it won't be 36% either. Oppy beats GM guidance by 300 basis points each quarter. This is a tough quarter with gobs of new products, supply issues, rollout challenges, so lets go with 38%. If TC's comments ob improved production of the iPhone 5 are true ( and why wouldn't they be), the worst bottlenecks may be behind us. Currency hedges were a drag this last quarter, as was the anticipation/ demand factor. Both wont impact this quarter to the same extent. I'm still working on product mix but my dull pencil sees $15.98 in earnings at this point. Thanks for your comments/analysis. Are you following the US delivery dates for ip5 and/or do you think stepped up 'non US shipments' accounts for more sustained backorders in the US. thanks JohnG
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 27, 2012 18:19:05 GMT -8
Does anybody have the full 10-K? I'm having trouble with the SEC's new format, and can't find it. I'm only seeing the 8-K.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 27, 2012 18:31:45 GMT -8
Peter O. Gave us guidance for revs of 52 billion and said he was "pleased" to give that number. I don't take his use of that word as snark but as a hint that he is doing what he has done quarter after quarter.....giving guidance he knows will be beat by a minimum of 10%. Probably safely more... So I'm using 58 billion as my minimum revenue number, with upside very possible if not likely. GM of 40 may not happen, but it won't be 36% either. Oppy beats GM guidance by 300 basis points each quarter. This is a tough quarter with gobs of new products, supply issues, rollout challenges, so lets go with 38%. If TC's comments ob improved production of the iPhone 5 are true ( and why wouldn't they be), the worst bottlenecks may be behind us. Currency hedges were a drag this last quarter, as was the anticipation/ demand factor. Both wont impact this quarter to the same extent. I'm still working on product mix but my dull pencil sees $15.98 in earnings at this point. Thanks for your comments/analysis. Are you following the US delivery dates for ip5 and/or do you think stepped up 'non US shipments' accounts for more sustained backorders in the US. thanks JohnG John, I really don't know. We now know there will be a China rollout in December...what could such a promise mean about supply restraints?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Oct 27, 2012 18:55:23 GMT -8
There were actually three tweets in a row, with the first one being (and this will put things into context): "I noticed that several people are buying April spreads. Don't do that. It's a huge mistake. Buy Jan or July. No April. I understood this to say that he expects a run up to 730-750 in anticipation of January earnings. Then a disappointing Q1 which results in the PPS coming back down to current levels before a blowout Q2 is announced in April. Thus, the value of the July spreads. Production of the iPhone 5 and iPad mini many not be in full force until Q2. That's what I think Andy is thinking. Call me Pollyanna, but I just can't see a Q1 miss. I think it more likely that the dip back into the 600's will be during one last WTF sale as part of the final push down before spectacular April earnings. But then again, April was the motivation for my recent purchase, so perhaps I'm just hoping for the best...
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Post by jcaron on Oct 27, 2012 19:39:37 GMT -8
I understood this to say that he expects a run up to 730-750 in anticipation of January earnings. Then a disappointing Q1 which results in the PPS coming back down to current levels before a blowout Q2 is announced in April. Thus, the value of the July spreads. Production of the iPhone 5 and iPad mini many not be in full force until Q2. That's what I think Andy is thinking. Call me Pollyanna, but I just can't see a Q1 miss. I think it more likely that the dip back into the 600's will be during one last WTF sale as part of the final push down before spectacular April earnings. But then again, April was the motivation for my recent purchase, so perhaps I'm just hoping for the best... I agree, apple won't miss guidance. They never miss guidance. They miss pie in the sky analysts expectations... Both indipendats and pros... I would like to see analysts keep expectations in check for Q1 but I am doubtful.
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Post by tradermac on Oct 27, 2012 19:51:48 GMT -8
Someone who subscribes to AZ just tweeted this - anyone here subscribe? If so, please elaborate: Zacky: Will visit the low $600's between January and April after visiting the $730 to $750 level first. But it will get down to $630. Zacky: So April spreads will be cheaper sometime between February and March. And whatever you do, don't buy $750+ either. There were actually three tweets in a row, with the first one being (and this will put things into context): "I noticed that several people are buying April spreads. Don't do that. It's a huge mistake. Buy Jan or July. No April." If he's right, and we drop to 630s in April, that means AAPL will be back to the same level after an entire year. Pretty amazing and scary.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 27, 2012 19:52:38 GMT -8
There were actually three tweets in a row, with the first one being (and this will put things into context): "I noticed that several people are buying April spreads. Don't do that. It's a huge mistake. Buy Jan or July. No April." RE: APR'13...depends on how long you intend to hold them. Read: unload before OE.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 27, 2012 20:02:17 GMT -8
Rushing to buy is a mistake, often. I line up my criteria of timing. I need 75 % of my questions to be Yes, before I buy. In a bear market, and we are in a bear market, stock will drop when u are not looking. Does this look like a bear market? SPY MONTHLY CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 27, 2012 20:58:27 GMT -8
(...)So my question is, do these look like decent strategies, or have I missed an obvious path to salvation?(...) Welcome, lobo!! Consider buying new replacement spreads (ATM for FEB'13 and/or OTM for APR'13) versus unhedging anything, then dumping the old spreads on the next upwave to reduce your exposure.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 27, 2012 21:00:38 GMT -8
Andy Zaky loves the Surface. Tweeting madly how great it is......
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2012 0:41:11 GMT -8
Andy Zaky loves the Surface. Tweeting madly how great it is...... In my best charm school sarcasm, "That's nice."
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icam
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Post by icam on Oct 28, 2012 2:51:12 GMT -8
Up early channel surfing for info on the Tsunami warning for Hawaii and clicked past CNBC. They were replaying their Options Action show from last Friday. I about fell off my chair when all 5 panelists, including Melissa Lee, commented in succession about AAPL and AMZN. Each stated that AAPL's current valuation was low and discussed various option plays they found attractive. And, each emphatically stated AMZN's valuation was off the charts expensive, and while they liked Amazon as a company, there was no way they would ever think about touching the stock at its current valuation. None of them could understand why on earth its valuation is as high as it is and told viewers to run away from AMZN. I never thought I'd see the day that CNBC (and especially Melissa Lee) would endorse AAPL, and then they threw in the bonus of bashing AMZN. Will miracles never cease?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 28, 2012 3:33:34 GMT -8
Andy Zaky loves the Surface. Tweeting madly how great it is...... Wait - is this being written facetiously or for real? No way!
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 28, 2012 3:35:48 GMT -8
Don't know what's happening in the world - looks like tsunami in the Hawaiian islands and earthquake in BC - here on the east coast we're bracing for Hurricane Sandy. Although I have a generator (I am in NY) I may not have internet service. This is not going to be be good trying to watch the stock this week. More importantly - good luck to anyone in harms way. Be careful out there.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 28, 2012 4:05:17 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Oct 28, 2012 4:16:42 GMT -8
Did Friday's huge volume not give you any comfort that we may be there at all? No. The day after earnings usually has big volume. The low of the day was not the sort of kangaroo tail I would have expected.
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 28, 2012 4:23:18 GMT -8
Someone who subscribes to AZ just tweeted this - anyone here subscribe? If so, please elaborate: Zacky: Will visit the low $600's between January and April after visiting the $730 to $750 level first. But it will get down to $630. Zacky: So April spreads will be cheaper sometime between February and March. And whatever you do, don't buy $750+ either. IMHO: the EOs and MMs like to optimize profits by SELLING near term calls on AAPL that they own. They then SELL AAPL to run the stock down, BUY the calls back and then buy back AAPL. A great short term switcheroo would be to BUY AAPL, BUY short term calls and allow AAPL to rise to $750 by Thanksgiving. The $750 price would be near enough to trigger a NASDAQ 100 rebalance. (I watch the percentages of AAPL in the NASDAQ 100. AAPL would be close to 24% of the NASDAQ 100 with AAPL at $750. See here: www.invescopowershares.com/products/holdings.aspx?ticker=qqq AAPL is currently 18.9% of the nasdaq 100) The NASDAQ 100 rebalance will keep AAPL in a range for 6 weeks as it has in the past. PLUS, no matter which candidate is elected, I think capital gains tax will go up in 2013. So, AAPL will fall after Thanksgiving.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 28, 2012 4:29:15 GMT -8
Rushing to buy is a mistake, often. I line up my criteria of timing. I need 75 % of my questions to be Yes, before I buy. In a bear market, and we are in a bear market, stock will drop when u are not looking. Does this look like a bear market? SPY MONTHLY CHART: It could be viewed as running into resistance and folk getting out in anticipation of a move down. As to it being a bear market, what exactly is the definition of a bear market, and how useful is it knowing whether it's a bear or bull market? One of the simple ways I view a chart as being bullish or bearish is whether the price is above or below the 200 EMA. Most of my intraday AAPL charts are bearish, while the daily and above ones are still bullish. So, by that logic your chart is bullish even if the intraday action feels anything but bullish.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 28, 2012 5:49:39 GMT -8
Don't know what's happening in the world - looks like tsunami in the Hawaiian islands and earthquake in BC - here on the east coast we're bracing for Hurricane Sandy. Although I have a generator (I am in NY) I may not have internet service. This is not going to be be good trying to watch the stock this week. More importantly - good luck to anyone in harms way. Be careful out there. We're bracing for a direct hit as Sandy makes landfall at Long Beach Island, according to current projections. That's about 40 miles south of me. If this thing twists, it could hit my area direct. The saving grace is that winds top out at 80 mph (at least now). I have been through a couple of storms of that magnitude, and while a little nerve-wrenching, these tend to be less harsh in terms of property damage. But we'll be hunkered down, all preparations are done, and it's a matter of waiting it out. I look at it another way. My house was built in 1922, and has survived 90 years of storms and hurricanes. That makes me feel better.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 28, 2012 5:56:20 GMT -8
Don't know what's happening in the world - looks like tsunami in the Hawaiian islands and earthquake in BC - here on the east coast we're bracing for Hurricane Sandy. And Zaky is praising a competitor's product. I know it was from Bullish Cross, and it was about midnight or so when he wrote it, but either he was drinking or he has sold out. In fact, he was glowing in his praise of the Surface.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 28, 2012 6:17:17 GMT -8
Here is one man's summary of the Surface (and it's not AZ): "I had extremely high hopes for the Surface, as I have been looking to replace my current ultrabook with a tablet hybrid that has superior battery life, a touchscreen, and can also live up to the productivity needs of my everyday life. The Surface with RT is a fantastic tablet, with one fatal flaw, and that is RT itself. While I thoroughly enjoyed using Windows RT, and see huge things for Windows 8 moving forward, it became a dealbreaker when I was not able to use established apps I use regularly on my Windows 7 ultrabook or even apps that I use regularly on my Android or iOS devices. I loved the familiarity of Windows, the controls of Windows, and the new interface Microsoft introduced is fantastic. Unfortunately, the lack of legacy applications makes that moot. Despite a fantastic design, the tablet is large, which makes regular tablet activities somewhat of a pain, as well. Overall, the Surface with RT gives me even higher hopes for the upcoming Surface Pro, which will run on an Intel chip and will have support for all legacy Windows apps. This tablet, despite being heavier, I believe will be a game changer in the market, as long as Microsoft doesn't price it out of the range (which is entirely possible). Unfortunately, we have to wait until next year." www.afterdawn.com/news/article.cfm/2012/10/27/review_microsoft_surface_with_windows_rt
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 28, 2012 6:22:06 GMT -8
Another not so glowing report of the Microsoft Surface, from Walt Mossberg: "Microsoft’s Surface is a tablet with some pluses: The major Office apps and nice optional keyboards. If you can live with its tiny number of third-party apps and somewhat disappointing battery life, it may give you the productivity some miss in other tablets." allthingsd.com/20121023/hardworking-tablet-with-pc-chops/
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 28, 2012 6:26:47 GMT -8
Demand not satisfied this quarter will carry over into FQ2. That should make the March quarter numbers very good (ala FQ2/2012). I'm thinking that perhaps the low guidance for FQ1 relates to expenses for ramping up for a huge FQ2 in China?
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Post by incorrigible on Oct 28, 2012 6:58:20 GMT -8
Don't know what's happening in the world - looks like tsunami in the Hawaiian islands and earthquake in BC - here on the east coast we're bracing for Hurricane Sandy. Although I have a generator (I am in NY) I may not have internet service. This is not going to be be good trying to watch the stock this week. More importantly - good luck to anyone in harms way. Be careful out there. I'm in NY also (Long Island). Generator is on order but has not yet arrived. Hope you make out OK.
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Post by lobo on Oct 28, 2012 8:36:47 GMT -8
Hello everyone! The (2) closer positions are: Feb 13 670 / 675 (4 of them) Apr 13 750 / 770 (2 of them) I'm consdering: Selling (2) of my Feb13 670/675's on the next decent run up. And letting the other (2) ride to expiration with reduced exposure. I'm considering buying back the 770's and selling some 760's to help get back some of the investment and reduce my exposure. So my question is, do these look like decent strategies, or have I missed an obvious path to salvation? I wouldn't worry about any of your positions at this stage. You have lots of time for Apple to turn its ship around. In the meantime you might want to take advantage of current pricing to, as you pointed out, buy back the APR $770s. If you take that approach (which I heartily agree with, I would not consider reselling anything against your APR $750s until early January. At that time you may be able to sell the $770s for more than you paid for the $750s, increasing both your profit and cash, while eliminating your risk. Lovemyipad wrote: Consider buying new replacement spreads (ATM for FEB'13 and/or OTM for APR'13) versus unhedging anything, then dumping the old spreads on the next upwave to reduce your exposure. Thanks Greg and Lovemyipad for your thoughts. As in anything I see the merits of both approaches. The only little bit of info that I should probably throw into the mix is that my options account is only a Roth IRA that I set up for learning how to do options. Taking the swing at buying back the $770's would pretty much tap out my cash. Although the approach seems pretty starightforward with the assumption that Apple will eventually be moving up. (And I guess the risk with owning the (2) Apr 13 $750's un-hedged would be if they went to expiration?) Buying the ATM Feb 13's and OTM Apr 13's have the familiar feel of the world of BCS's and the risks seem lower. This route would likely eat up most of my cash as well, but hey the cash is there to be used one way or the other. I'll go ahead and churn some numbers this afternoon while I watch my Fantasy Football teams go down in flames. If you have any other thoughts that may help lead me in the right direction, please let me know. Thanks
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Oct 28, 2012 8:46:20 GMT -8
I flew to New Orleans on Thursday for an interview. I have never seen so many iPads and iPhones. Both on the streets in NO and at the airport. I didn't see a single tablet that wasn't an iPad. The ratio of iPhones to non-iPhones had to be at least 15 to 1. Not kidding. I saw a huge number of 3GS and 4, which should mean a lot of upgrades are coming. The future is strong. Don't let a few quarters cloud that. I've also noticed that. Last time I was in Moscow airport, iPad was 17:1 (I counted). Mac was about 1:1. iPhone, coudn't quite tell, but looked like majority were iPhone. I guess people who fly use iProducts :-)
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