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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2012 8:12:50 GMT -8
That and the Tesla Model S goes into production in a couple months. Did you preorder a Model S? The nationwide rollout of supercharging stations that Tesla has planned sounds pretty nice. Free lifetime charges for Model S owners. Yes, I did, but I'm down on the totem pole. Don't expect to see it for about a year. The free charging stations are nice, but they're located on freeways. The closest on to me is about 150 miles distant. In the meantime, the gas station across from my shop has installed a charging station. I'm thinking of installing a commercial charging station for about 4 vehicles in the area.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 29, 2012 8:22:30 GMT -8
JD sez: I'm sorry, but I have never seen such a massively pussified reaction to a category 1 hurricane.
Well, you obviously were not in the Boston area for hurricane Gloria. O. M. G. What a joke that was. This one seems to be somewhat different :-( Remind me to say something like that next time the West Coast gets a 7.0 earthquake.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 29, 2012 8:28:36 GMT -8
Still have power - I am sure you all saw that The Loop has said that all mini pre-orders were sold out. This needs to get into the press once the hurricane stuff passes. Thursday/Friday would be a good time to amp up the IPad mini PR machine, since it gives us a couple of days to assess damage from Sandy, and it's the official release of the mini.
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Post by tuffett on Oct 29, 2012 8:30:10 GMT -8
Oct 27, 2012, 7:31pm, rutgersguy92 wrote:I'm confused by Andy's tweets. When he tweeted AAPL will visit the low $600's between January and April, are we to assume this will occur after Jan 13 expiration(Jan 18th) or earnings report(?)? I assume he means after earnings. Similarly, he tweeted AAPL will visit "$730 to $750 level first" meaning before Jan 13 expiration and/or earnings. ?? He goes on to say that between Feb - March spreads will be cheaper but "whatever you do, don't buy $750+ either.". I guess he means Apr 13s @ > $750. Finally he says don't buy Apr 13s and just buy Jan 13s and July 13s. Simply put, if I understand, he believes there will be a significant run up to Jan 13s (whoohoo), a miss in WS's expectations so WS pummels AAPL and then no significant run up to Apr 13s. But, the earning report for FQ 2 2013 will again be a blowout with a subsequent run up. I can accept this, but even after the blowout earnings in FQ2 seems AAPL could peak and go back down as the summer quarters can melt down AAPL share price. What would make Jul 13s so valuable, wouldn't Jun 13s be just as valuable? China Mobile announcement in the earning report after FQ 2 2013? Apple TV? Large purchase of a company coming up? The reason I ask is I have the bulk of my account in Apr 13s and am trying to understand more completely Andy's reasoning. Andy's ego is getting a bit too much to handle and I fear it's going to do him in. I enjoy most of his posts and his fundamental analysis is excellent but I don't take what he says in terms of direction and price with much more than a grain of salt. Remember, this is the guy who went on record saying a good analyst should be able to consistently estimate revenues/EPS within 1-3% and then proceeded to miss badly on two of the next three quarters. He was one of the worst this quarter. His latest "buy signal" also seems off. One of those cases where it works until it doesn't, I fear. He's also called for $1000 by Jan 2014 and I fear too many people are taking that as fact. Not saying it won't or can't happen, but it's far from a sure thing and I'm staying well below those levels for everything but a few play money gambles. Andy Zaky is not a soothsayer. He has developed a reputation of being one of the most accurate analysts, and it was well deserved, but but the truth has begun to veer away from the perception for the last few quarters. When he makes such precise predictions I'd be weary about following them. Make your own decisions, err on the side of caution and you should do fine.
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Post by rickag on Oct 29, 2012 8:44:10 GMT -8
tuffett
Thanks for the reply, I'm just trying to understand Andy's statements as another source of reference.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 29, 2012 8:47:01 GMT -8
Remind me to say something like that next time the West Coast gets a 7.0 earthquake. As I said, this one seems different, in other words not a joke. Or were you directing your comment at JD???
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 29, 2012 8:52:01 GMT -8
tuffett Thanks for the reply, I'm just trying to understand Andy's statements as another source of reference. Don't. Andy's style is very active, frequent updates, stream-of-consciousness almost, throughout the day. Taking a tweet or two out of context doesn't really get you "the Zaky experience". Those tweets represent his current expectations, given current information. His advice absolutely will change, frequently, as more information becomes available. EDIT: By "don't" I don't mean you should ignore him, just that you shouldn't expend so much energy trying to read between the lines.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 29, 2012 9:04:38 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2012 9:05:10 GMT -8
Oct 27, 2012, 7:31pm, rutgersguy92 Finally he says don't buy Apr 13s and just buy Jan 13s and July 13s. If I was so confident AAPL would drop $130, that I would advise people to avoid April options, I'd be gobbling up Puts.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 29, 2012 9:23:21 GMT -8
CNBC BREAKING: NYSE to close market tomorrow. Last time NYSE closed for more than 1 day due to weather was in 1888.
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coma
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Post by coma on Oct 29, 2012 9:30:16 GMT -8
I'm going through withdrawals already.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 29, 2012 9:36:51 GMT -8
That has to be a huge chunk of theta decay on the weekly options without the opportunity to trade for two days....yikes.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 29, 2012 9:53:59 GMT -8
CNBC BREAKING: NYSE to close market tomorrow. Last time NYSE closed for more than 1 day due to weather was in 1888. As seen on Twitter: Sandy doing what Occupy Wall Street couldn't do: shut down Wall Street.
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Post by qualitywte on Oct 29, 2012 10:10:30 GMT -8
That has to be a huge chunk of theta decay on the weekly options without the opportunity to trade for two days....yikes. What affect on stock price, if any?
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Post by wheeles on Oct 29, 2012 10:14:06 GMT -8
CNBC BREAKING: NYSE to close market tomorrow. Last time NYSE closed for more than 1 day due to weather was in 1888. Bugger.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 29, 2012 10:22:25 GMT -8
That has to be a huge chunk of theta decay on the weekly options without the opportunity to trade for two days....yikes. What affect on stock price, if any? Trading still carrying on in Europe. Today's European close was at 463.75 EUR, which is approximately 599 USD.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 29, 2012 10:23:18 GMT -8
That has to be a huge chunk of theta decay on the weekly options without the opportunity to trade for two days....yikes. What affect on stock price, if any? I haven't looked at the weeklies to see how they are skewed but clearly people may need to adjust sooner rather than later. Meanhwile Oct 31 a lot of funds close so there should be some volatility with that as well. Right now I am more concerned about my house and this hurricane .... so don't have time to look.
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Post by rosie on Oct 29, 2012 10:27:51 GMT -8
to Phoebes and all other East Coast people: good luck, stay safe and be patient.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 29, 2012 10:43:06 GMT -8
Remind me to say something like that next time the West Coast gets a 7.0 earthquake. As I said, this one seems different, in other words not a joke. Or were you directing your comment at JD??? JD.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 29, 2012 11:11:01 GMT -8
I'm going through withdrawals already. I'm actually getting some work done.
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Post by bryanyc on Oct 29, 2012 11:29:40 GMT -8
Regarding the release of the iPad 4 Technically there was no compelling reason and it would be a poor business choice to do it just because it is a faster processor. Competitively nothing comes close to the 3 and the competitors shortfalls have little or nothing to do with the processor. They must have known doing this so soon would make many of the iPad 3 owners feel like Chumps so doing this was not without risk of alienating arguably some of the most loyal, high-margin customers. One would think they would have held off till at least spring next year so trying to come up with a good reason as to why they were pushed to do it earlier leaves better margins through lower COGS of the newer processor now or very soon as the most likely reason. With all respect I highly disagree. The reason for the refresh of the iPad 4 was to keep it competitive at a particularly critical time in the market. Notice that Google has just introduced a larger size form factor today and that Microsoft has just introduced the surface. Going into the holiday season Apple did not want to be selling a half year old product against these two new to the market tablets. Even though this is not a major refresh it does get to be called a new model which is important in the holiday tablet sales war.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 29, 2012 11:32:46 GMT -8
Re: Those Apr 13 expirations: Huh? IV is mostly a non-issue with BCSes, IIRC.
If you don't hold to expiration (i.e., use the BCS as a trading vehicle that's a bit less risky than pure calls), also a non-issue IMHO - as long as you're right about direction at some point in your trading and can get out with a gain, as always.
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Post by Mav on Oct 29, 2012 11:36:00 GMT -8
As a Limited Edition™ iPad 3 owner, I applaud Apple's iPad 4 decision as a shareholder - why hold the technology back? Let it fly, and keep the competition right where you want them - as far behind you as possible. iPad mini owners "beware" - given iPad 4, I wonder if a quick refresh isn't in the cards before Summer '13. An iPad mini with A6 tech would kick all kinds of #$$.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 29, 2012 11:48:32 GMT -8
As a Limited Edition™ iPad 3 owner, I applaud Apple's iPad 4 decision as a shareholder - why hold the technology back? Let it fly, and keep the competition right where you want them - as far behind you as possible. iPad mini owners "beware" - given iPad 4, I wonder if a quick refresh isn't in the cards before Summer '13. An iPad mini with A6 tech would kick all kinds of #$$. If you found all the iPad owners in the world who are pissed off about the iPad 4, I'll bet Rob Enderle could count them all with his shoes still on.
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Post by rosie on Oct 29, 2012 11:51:36 GMT -8
As a Limited Edition™ iPad 3 owner, I applaud Apple's iPad 4 decision as a shareholder - why hold the technology back? Let it fly, and keep the competition right where you want them - as far behind you as possible. iPad mini owners "beware" - given iPad 4, I wonder if a quick refresh isn't in the cards before Summer '13. An iPad mini with A6 tech would kick all kinds of #$$. If you found all the iPad owners in the world who are pissed off about the iPad 4, I'll bet Rob Enderle could count them all with his shoes still on. +1, or maybe that should read +3 & +4
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 29, 2012 12:00:06 GMT -8
rickag, I'll try to catch up on my comprehensive Zaky reading today and see if I can summarize.
Meanwhile, come over to the "options strategy" thread, and I'll tell you some of the stuff I do...
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 29, 2012 12:08:43 GMT -8
If you found all the iPad owners in the world who are pissed off about the iPad 4, I'll bet Rob Enderle could count them all with his shoes still on. +1, or maybe that should read +3 & +4 Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 29, 2012 12:24:12 GMT -8
greedynoob, ROFL!!!
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 29, 2012 12:24:58 GMT -8
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Post by bryanyc on Oct 29, 2012 12:40:10 GMT -8
Verrry funny ! The must be expecting a surge of some sort!
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