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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2012 14:22:00 GMT -8
IIRC it would be a first if they did not report first weekend iPad sales for a new model. Microsoft reported 4 million windows 8 upgrades for its first weekend of sales, it would be fantastic if apple could beat that number (not really comparable products I know, but it would be a wonderful sign of the times). 4 million is a set up for disappointment. Apple did 4 million iphones on its opening weekend, that is asking to much from the mini. I actually think 1 million will be decent. 1 million? I think we have a giant difference in our expectations of the iPad mini. I think it will be the biggest selling iPad from here on out (like the smaller 13" MacBook outsells the 15" model, and the smaller 21" iMac outsells the 27" model, and the iPod mini outsold the original iPod after it was introduced). I don't think it's comparable to the cheaper iPhones (the previous years models), which don't sell as well as the latest iphone model - the difference being that the iPad mini is a new device, with a new form factor, and a new price point significantly cheaper, and is being heavily promoted by apple marketing, the press & word of mouth. The iPad mini is its own product line, it will have new models introduced every year. Hopefully we do get sales numbers next week, otherwise I'm going to be having this debate until we get hard data in january earnngs.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2012 14:23:57 GMT -8
Burgess, the screen is a different size along with the case, yes supply is an issue. I really don't have a number in mind. Because of the timing of the launch I expect the number to be much lower than 4 mil and closer to 1 mil. I do think it will sell well once people start shopping for Christmas. BTW, I have not seen a commercial for it yet, or the new ipad4. The people buying it now are Apple fans, it has to get out into the wild. I apologize if this has already been posted, but here is Gene Munster's note with his 1-1.5M first weekend sales estimate for the iPad mini: "We believe Apple could sell 1-1.5 million iPad Minis this weekend, which compares with 3 million 3rd Gen iPads sold in its launch weekend in March. Our estimate includes pre-ordered devices. We note that the iPad Mini will launch in 34 countries compared to 10 for the 3rd Gen iPad, but the 3rd Gen iPad launch included LTE versions of the device, while the Mini launch will not. The reason we expect fewer iPad Minis compared to the 3rd Gen is because of the lack of the wireless option and newness of the smaller form factor for consumers, with smaller sized tablets accounting for about 20-25% of overall market units. We believe that over time that will change, and consumers will gradually realize the benefits of the smaller form factor iPad, which will drive adoption, although it may not take form in lines for tomorrow's launch."This is the same Gene Munster who predicted 1.5 million for the iPad 3 launch (apple sold 3 million)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 1, 2012 14:24:55 GMT -8
The iPhone 4S quietly launched to blockbuster sales. So extrapolating from lines or lack thereof won't help, I'd suspect. Less lines = easier for me to check out iPad mini for myself.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2012 14:28:10 GMT -8
Burgess, the screen is a different size along with the case, yes supply is an issue. I really don't have a number in mind. Because of the timing of the launch I expect the number to be much lower than 4 mil and closer to 1 mil. I do think it will sell well once people start shopping for Christmas. BTW, I have not seen a commercial for it yet, or the new ipad4. The people buying it now are Apple fans, it has to get out into the wild. Good point regarding Xmas sales - it may be a smaller launch than I was thinking, but boosted at Xmas instead. Don't think the screen is an issue, its the same screen pixel density as the iPhone 3GS. A little off topic, but its a good thing that a retina iPad mini will use the exact same pixel density as the iPhone 4/4s/5 - so obtaining screens for it next year will not be an issue either.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 1, 2012 14:31:55 GMT -8
so you don;t think screen is an issue or that was sarcastic?
no retina due to supply issues def seems plausible...
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2012 14:33:07 GMT -8
To compare:
The $499 iPad 3 launched in 10 countries in opening weekend
The $329 iPad mini launches in 34 countries this weekend (as does the iPad 4)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2012 14:39:00 GMT -8
so you don;t think screen is an issue or that was sarcastic? no retina due to supply issues def seems plausible... The iPad mini has the same screen pixel density as the original 2007 iPhone - there should be zero issues with supply.
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Post by jcaron on Nov 1, 2012 14:52:53 GMT -8
lnkd, AIG, sbux, VISA, GE, F etc etc all making good moves as of late.... Apple sucking wind...
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 1, 2012 14:53:19 GMT -8
Well, there you go. I am inline with GM. Of course he was high for the phones on opening weekend so who knows.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2012 14:58:32 GMT -8
Just called around a few large retailers here in Wellington - sold most of the black iPad minis, still plenty of white models. It's just coming up 12 noon here.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 1, 2012 15:03:10 GMT -8
This sideways move over the last couple of days looks very much like AAPL was working off some of its short term oversold status. So you see another leg down, eh? If we break through the 200-day SMA, what is left to bounce off? Hard to say. All I am looking for is a decent capitulation with lots of volume in a short space of time. So far we've not had it, so I am wary of any move up as that will only be seen as another opportunity to lighten up.
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Post by Iceage on Nov 1, 2012 15:12:25 GMT -8
This is the same Gene Munster who predicted 1.5 million for the iPad 3 launch (apple sold 3 million) Yup, the same "expert" that predicted 8 million iPhone 5 for the first weekend's sales. Nobody knows except Apple. My guest is just as good as his. It just sets AAPL for a disappointment. I just wish they would keep their predictions to themselves. They love the attention including Zaky, who is more wrong than right.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 1, 2012 15:13:37 GMT -8
I'm guessing there will be a lot of of people on the east coast of the USA that will NOT be buying an iPad mini this weekend (that otherwise would have).This makes me wonder if apple will release any sales figures on Monday - it's likely the 1000s of retail locations which are apple resellers still closed is going to lead to hundreds of thousands of lost unit sales. Then again maybe apple just calls all shipments as sales and even if they are sitting in warehouses of retail chains they will still report them as sold and give us a number on Monday anyway? The iPad 3 sold 3 million in its first weekend, I'm picking the iPad mini will beat that given it is the biggest ever global day one rollout of an apple product ever. Not sure how the iPad 4 sales this weekend play into things though...? As of today, there were probably a number of Apple stores still without power.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2012 15:16:41 GMT -8
I'm guessing there will be a lot of of people on the east coast of the USA that will NOT be buying an iPad mini this weekend (that otherwise would have).This makes me wonder if apple will release any sales figures on Monday - it's likely the 1000s of retail locations which are apple resellers still closed is going to lead to hundreds of thousands of lost unit sales. Then again maybe apple just calls all shipments as sales and even if they are sitting in warehouses of retail chains they will still report them as sold and give us a number on Monday anyway? The iPad 3 sold 3 million in its first weekend, I'm picking the iPad mini will beat that given it is the biggest ever global day one rollout of an apple product ever. Not sure how the iPad 4 sales this weekend play into things though...? As of today, there were probably a number of Apple stores still without power. Good to hear your power is back at least.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 1, 2012 15:20:51 GMT -8
In case you hadn't noticed, we can donate to the Red Cross thru the app store as in other disasters. So easy to do. also, iOS 6.0.1 is available to update our devices. Welcome Back RG! good to hear you are OK. I think Phoebes checked in from her husband's office a couple of days ago as they were without power at home. Thanks, Rosie. Glad to be back. We are having friends of my daughter sleep over tonight, because they haven't gotten their power back. One of them works in the administrative office for a neighboring town , and she just received a phone call that Governor Christie has ordered all townships to be open this week-end so that they can have paper ballots available. She also mentioned that the town of Sea Bright has requested a large number of body bags, as they try to dig out of the mess. A lot of people are unaccounted for, but hopefully they just evacuated.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 1, 2012 15:22:59 GMT -8
This sideways move over the last couple of days looks very much like AAPL was working off some of its short term oversold status. Yep, all the way up to a RSI of 34. I maintain that I have no clue about a bottom for AAPL. Personally, since I am a card carrying member of the "tin foil hat club", I think this all has to do with weekly options. Geez, the S&P was up 15 points for Pete's sake on very good volume. And of all companies, Ford did a follow up on yesterday's massive move. Its just AAPL - us? We stink. Man, I hope that light at the end of the tunnel is not a train coming my way. RG, was worried about you guys up there. It was much worse than what I thought it would be. I saw a pic of a pretty good size boat that had run ashore in Jersey. That is going to be a heck of a job getting it back in the water. Thanks, Mark. It was pretty hairy for about 4 hours Monday night, but we got through it pretty good. Towns on the water, not so good.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 1, 2012 15:28:46 GMT -8
As of today, there were probably a number of Apple stores still without power. Good to hear your power is back at least. Thanks, burgess. It's funny you should mention that the black IPad minis sold out before the white ones. It was just the opposite in the US with the pre-orders, with the whites selling out in a couple of hours, but the blacks took a couple of days. Is black a popular color down under because of the rugby team you show in your avatar?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2012 15:38:36 GMT -8
Good to hear your power is back at least. Thanks, burgess. It's funny you should mention that the black IPad minis sold out before the white ones. Is was just the opposite with the pre-orders, with the whites selling out in a couple of hours, but the blacks took a couple of days. Is black a popular color down under because of the rugby team you show in your avatar? Ha - never thought of that but you might be right!
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Post by terps530 on Nov 1, 2012 16:09:27 GMT -8
The kid is back in the saddle. We just got our power back from 8:00 PM on Monday, and we were doing Snoopy dances in the street. You really appreciate the little things after an event like Sandy. The Jersey shore is wiped out pretty good. Without power, we couldn't follow coverage of the devastation on TV, but we were able to get pictures via our cellphones. I live a couple of doors over from a First Aid station, and they were serving as a comfort station, where you could get a charge (besides driving around to charge the phones), and where you also had a chance to meet up your neighbors. It was actually nice to have a sense of community again. When the JCP&L workers restored power, I went up to them an thanked them personally, which I thought they appreciated. But according to the pictures I saw, a number of the beach clubs were wiped away, and the building structures washed out to sea. Once we get through search and rescue, removal of sand from the streets, and demolition of structures too damaged to restore, there will be lots of work for construction workers and building trades - carpenters, plumbers, electricians, drywall, painters, etc - so we might enjoy a little mini "stimulus" on the Jersey shore, funded by the insurance companies and FEMA. Good to be back, but I was following AAPL on my phone, and following the FUD as well. Can't wait for a change in trend. Has Phoebebear or Terps checked in yet? Hey rg, thanks for lookin out. Yea I have popped in a bit here and there. Kind of taking it easy and watching. Mostly everyone around me lost power but I have it so that's been a great thing. Tarrytown ny wasn't hit too bad, but like you said, the shore got hammered. My parents beach house is in Monmouth Beach and we haven't been able to get word yet on the store, its 1 block in from ocean ave, but is a townhouse so I think it'd be ok. The sad thing is I think a lot of the town got wrecked pretty badly. Found this on twitter- My parents place is one block inland from this exact spot, so this has been our best gauge so far... MBBC Ocean & ValentineAs per Apple...missed the end of day close but saw we lost 600. It felt good to get above and hold it for a bit, but I guess it's not time yet. Maybe Monday brings some new life.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 1, 2012 16:29:13 GMT -8
The kid is back in the saddle. We just got our power back from 8:00 PM on Monday, and we were doing Snoopy dances in the street. You really appreciate the little things after an event like Sandy. The Jersey shore is wiped out pretty good. Without power, we couldn't follow coverage of the devastation on TV, but we were able to get pictures via our cellphones. I live a couple of doors over from a First Aid station, and they were serving as a comfort station, where you could get a charge (besides driving around to charge the phones), and where you also had a chance to meet up your neighbors. It was actually nice to have a sense of community again. When the JCP&L workers restored power, I went up to them an thanked them personally, which I thought they appreciated. But according to the pictures I saw, a number of the beach clubs were wiped away, and the building structures washed out to sea. Once we get through search and rescue, removal of sand from the streets, and demolition of structures too damaged to restore, there will be lots of work for construction workers and building trades - carpenters, plumbers, electricians, drywall, painters, etc - so we might enjoy a little mini "stimulus" on the Jersey shore, funded by the insurance companies and FEMA. Good to be back, but I was following AAPL on my phone, and following the FUD as well. Can't wait for a change in trend. Has Phoebebear or Terps checked in yet? Hey rg, thanks for lookin out. Yea I have popped in a bit here and there. Kind of taking it easy and watching. Mostly everyone around me lost power but I have it so that's been a great thing. Tarrytown ny wasn't hit too bad, but like you said, the shore got hammered. My parents beach house is in Monmouth Beach and we haven't been able to get word yet on the store, its 1 block in from ocean ave, but is a townhouse so I think it'd be ok. The sad thing is I think a lot of the town got wrecked pretty badly. Found this on twitter- My parents place is one block inland from this exact spot, so this has been our best gauge so far... MBBC Ocean & ValentineAs per Apple...missed the end of day close but saw we lost 600. It felt good to get above and hold it for a bit, but I guess it's not time yet. Maybe Monday brings some new life. I live in Red Bank, and the town survived pretty good. Only a couple of homes hit by trees. But Sea Bright is like a war zone. Tomorrow night, there's a Sandy benefit on TV, with some of the local rock and rollers (Springsteen and Bon Jovi), as well as Billy Joel, taking part. Same thing happened after 911. We'll rebuild, and make it better.
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Post by rezonate on Nov 1, 2012 17:55:09 GMT -8
I added to my long position today, market order at open. Yesterday's discussion about the 200 day moving average convinced me. I pulled way back to see a graph of AAPL all the way back to the iPO. Wish I'd grabbed those 1000 shares in 2002 like I had planned. What will we be saying in 10 years?
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 1, 2012 17:55:35 GMT -8
4 million is a set up for disappointment. Apple did 4 million iphones on its opening weekend, that is asking to much from the mini. I actually think 1 million will be decent. Its launching in 34 countries today (not 40 as I originally typed) - and in far more retail locations than the iPhone. The mini isn't using any new chips or screen technology, its supply should be massive. Edit: your right though, 4 million isnt something to be expected - but it would be nice. I don't think Apple will announce sales numbers for the iPad Mini. They were scheduled to receive 1.8M displays in September and October. My guess is they will sell 1.4M by 11/4. Display Dilivery Info: LG Sept 300,000 Oct 1,000,000 Nov 2,500,000 Dec 3,000,000 AU Optronics Sept 100,000 Oct 400,000 Nov 800,000 Dec 1,000,000
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 1, 2012 18:46:07 GMT -8
Apple's iPad Mini Hits Stores Friday Published November 01, 2012 SAN FRANCISCO – Apple Inc. (AAPL) kicks off sales of its iPad Mini Friday, seeking to maintain its leadership of the tech industry. Apple confirmed that initial sales had begun in New Zealand for the device, which measures 7.9 inches diagonally. The device's launch marks a new chapter for the Cupertino, Calif., tech giant as it sells its first major new device since the death of its co-founder, Steve Jobs, last year. It is also part of the largest product push Apple has had ahead of a holiday season in its recent history. Few people lined up outside a retail store in New Zealand Friday, but even so, the country was running low on stock. Dick Smith Electronics New Zealand merchandise manager Craig Douglas said the company had only received a couple of hundred iPad Minis for the entire country and he expected to sell these out by the close of business Friday. "Obviously we don't want to push it (the iPad mini) because we don't want to disappoint customers as there was not a heck of a lot of stock," he said. Apple retailer Yoobee was also warning customers mid-afternoon that the company had run out of white iPad Minis and there was limited numbers of the black version left. James Griffin, 19 years old, was one of five customers who queued early at JB HIFI in central Wellington, New Zealand, ahead of the store opening to ensure he got an iPad mini. Mr. Griffin said he already an iPhone, iPad 2 and a Macbook Pro but still wanted the smaller iPad Mini tablet. "I always thought that the iPad was big and this is more portable," he said. The iPad Mini, which starts at $329 for the cheapest model with 16 gigabytes of storage space, was announced amid a flurry of updates to the company's product line, including refashioned Mac computers and an update to the seven-month-old iPad, whose marquee feature was a higher-end display and faster wireless networking technology known as LTE. Apple also released the iPhone 5 in September, as well as updates to its iPod line of music players. Apple said the slew of new devices would be taxing. During a conference call last week, the company said its profit margins would shrink amid the increased costs of manufacturing the new devices. The company added that new product designs often cost more to manufacture at first, but their cumulative effect is often tempered by a stagnated release schedule throughout the year. But unlike releases such as for the iPhone 5, which drew throngs of excited fans who lined street corners in an attempt to be the first to get the device, analysts are expecting a calmer scene for the iPad Mini. The reason, says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, is that the iPad Mini is targeted at only a subset of potential iPad buyers, due to its lower-end specifications such as an outdated chip and lower-quality display. Moreover, models being sold Friday won't include chips that support high-speed cellular data. Those will arrive a couple of weeks later. Piper Jaffray estimates the company will sell 1 million to 1.5 million iPad Minis this weekend. That compares to three million of the new iPads when they went on sale in March. Apple sold 5 million units of the iPhone 5 in its first weekend of sales in September. Read more: www.foxbusiness.com/technology/2012/11/01/apple-ipad-mini-hits-stores-friday/#ixzz2B1tOk
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 1, 2012 18:55:38 GMT -8
Lone man waits in empty line for iPad mini release Mallory Hatten 11/1/2012 Following the landfall of Hurricane Sandy earlier this week, many New Yorkers were left unsure as to whether or not the Apple flagship store would still be launching its iPad mini on Friday morning. But that didn’t stop one Brooklyn native to travel through flooded transit systems to be the first person in line at the Fifth Avenue mega store early Thursday morning.
Mashable caught up with Luis Lorenzo, a Brooklyn native, to find out why he was so determined to make the 75-minute trek across town through hurricane debris and flooded streets, just to camp outside the door by himself for 24 hours.
Lorenzo, 42, who set up camp at 6 a.m. Thursday morning with his lawn chair and backpack in two, revealed that he wants two iPad minis to give to loved ones for the upcoming holidays. “I’m surprised a line hasn’t formed yet,” the eager shopper said. “But Sandy and the transit system have made it hard for people to get here. I think more people will start showing up at 8 or so.”
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 1, 2012 18:59:28 GMT -8
Apple's iPad Mini Hits Stores Friday Published November 01, 2012 SAN FRANCISCO – Apple Inc. (AAPL) kicks off sales of its iPad Mini Friday, seeking to maintain its leadership of the tech industry. Apple confirmed that initial sales had begun in New Zealand for the device, which measures 7.9 inches diagonally. The device's launch marks a new chapter for the Cupertino, Calif., tech giant as it sells its first major new device since the death of its co-founder, Steve Jobs, last year. It is also part of the largest product push Apple has had ahead of a holiday season in its recent history. Few people lined up outside a retail store in New Zealand Friday, but even so, the country was running low on stock. Dick Smith Electronics New Zealand merchandise manager Craig Douglas said the company had only received a couple of hundred iPad Minis for the entire country and he expected to sell these out by the close of business Friday. "Obviously we don't want to push it (the iPad mini) because we don't want to disappoint customers as there was not a heck of a lot of stock," he said. Apple retailer Yoobee was also warning customers mid-afternoon that the company had run out of white iPad Minis and there was limited numbers of the black version left. James Griffin, 19 years old, was one of five customers who queued early at JB HIFI in central Wellington, New Zealand, ahead of the store opening to ensure he got an iPad mini. Mr. Griffin said he already an iPhone, iPad 2 and a Macbook Pro but still wanted the smaller iPad Mini tablet. "I always thought that the iPad was big and this is more portable," he said. The iPad Mini, which starts at $329 for the cheapest model with 16 gigabytes of storage space, was announced amid a flurry of updates to the company's product line, including refashioned Mac computers and an update to the seven-month-old iPad, whose marquee feature was a higher-end display and faster wireless networking technology known as LTE. Apple also released the iPhone 5 in September, as well as updates to its iPod line of music players. Apple said the slew of new devices would be taxing. During a conference call last week, the company said its profit margins would shrink amid the increased costs of manufacturing the new devices. The company added that new product designs often cost more to manufacture at first, but their cumulative effect is often tempered by a stagnated release schedule throughout the year. But unlike releases such as for the iPhone 5, which drew throngs of excited fans who lined street corners in an attempt to be the first to get the device, analysts are expecting a calmer scene for the iPad Mini. The reason, says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, is that the iPad Mini is targeted at only a subset of potential iPad buyers, due to its lower-end specifications such as an outdated chip and lower-quality display. Moreover, models being sold Friday won't include chips that support high-speed cellular data. Those will arrive a couple of weeks later. Piper Jaffray estimates the company will sell 1 million to 1.5 million iPad Minis this weekend. That compares to three million of the new iPads when they went on sale in March. Apple sold 5 million units of the iPhone 5 in its first weekend of sales in September. Read more: www.foxbusiness.com/technology/2012/11/01/apple-ipad-mini-hits-stores-friday/#ixzz2B1tOkWell, I guess NZ sales aren't going to do much to reach the Piper Jaffray estimate, since only 200 units were provided. Not too happy to hear: "Few people lined up outside a retail store in New Zealand Friday, but even so, the country was running low on stock." Where are the bulk of sales coming from, besides the US?
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Post by davidcv100 on Nov 1, 2012 18:59:42 GMT -8
Video of iPad mini line in Japan: “@turleymuller: iPad mini & iPad Retina ディスプレイモデル行列@アップルストア銀座 lines in Japan (YouTube) t.co/ZrLYjE3p” $AAPL
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 1, 2012 19:03:17 GMT -8
Lone man waits in empty line for iPad mini release Mallory Hatten 11/1/2012 Following the landfall of Hurricane Sandy earlier this week, many New Yorkers were left unsure as to whether or not the Apple flagship store would still be launching its iPad mini on Friday morning. But that didn’t stop one Brooklyn native to travel through flooded transit systems to be the first person in line at the Fifth Avenue mega store early Thursday morning. Mashable caught up with Luis Lorenzo, a Brooklyn native, to find out why he was so determined to make the 75-minute trek across town through hurricane debris and flooded streets, just to camp outside the door by himself for 24 hours. Lorenzo, 42, who set up camp at 6 a.m. Thursday morning with his lawn chair and backpack in two, revealed that he wants two iPad minis to give to loved ones for the upcoming holidays. “I’m surprised a line hasn’t formed yet,” the eager shopper said. “But Sandy and the transit system have made it hard for people to get here. I think more people will start showing up at 8 or so.” What kind of FUD is this crap: "Lone man waits in empty line for iPad mini" Of course, they conveniently leave out that it's 24 hours prior, and that travel conditions are horrible.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 1, 2012 19:06:51 GMT -8
What kind of FUD is this crap: "Lone man waits in empty line for iPad mini" Of course, they conveniently leave out that it's 24 hours prior, and that travel conditions are horrible. I'm thinking most people understand that. I didn't take it as FUD, but just a slightly ironic title for an article marveling at the fact that there is a line at all.
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Post by rosie on Nov 1, 2012 19:09:40 GMT -8
The quotation "I don't care what the newspapers say about me as long as they spell my name right." is widely cited in journalism, public relations and advertising books where it is variously meant to reflect the importance of the media, the power of publicity, and/or the arrogance of celebrities. Some people believe it; others dispute it. Either way, it perfectly captures the now out-dated but once-popular notion that there's no such thing as bad publicity.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 1, 2012 19:12:40 GMT -8
Well, I guess NZ sales aren't going to do much to reach the Piper Jaffray estimate, since only 200 units were provided. Not too happy to hear: "Few people lined up outside a retail store in New Zealand Friday, but even so, the country was running low on stock." Where are the bulk of sales coming from, besides the US? Those 200 units were to a single retailer. No idea how big a retailer that is, but it wasn't Apple, and Apple stores are definitely favored in the allocation of initial releases.
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