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Post by greedynoob on Nov 2, 2012 8:21:55 GMT -8
Anybody pay attention to the whole article about the 5th Ave store? The 1 guy who was in line yesterday, was 1 of only 2 at 6AM, so went to breakfast. Busses started running this morning. By the time he got back, he had to go to the end of the line behind hundreds of Chinese buying for the gray market! Dude, you just can't let your guard down like that.
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Post by rickag on Nov 2, 2012 8:22:57 GMT -8
Here's our retest on positive (bullish) divergence...read: waning momentum, sellers' exhaustion. I don't follow, sellers exhaustion? bullish divergence? I'm so far underwater now, we need a smiley with a snorkel.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 2, 2012 8:25:35 GMT -8
Random question of the day...Whats apples market share/growth like in Middle East? I recently saw a cool video on growth of dubai and was curious about it
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Nov 2, 2012 8:26:25 GMT -8
It's Greed's cousin Fear that's got us to $ 590...
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Post by appledoc on Nov 2, 2012 8:28:45 GMT -8
If we hold the 200 day today for the second time in three trading days, I would like to think we're off to the races next week.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 2, 2012 8:53:15 GMT -8
Here's our retest on positive (bullish) divergence...read: waning momentum, sellers' exhaustion. I do hope you keep checking in like you have so far this morning, Ms. IPad. You keep the place positive and upbeat. I know it has worked for me, because I was feeling pretty down. Have to stop reading some of the FUD stories, I guess.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 2, 2012 8:56:38 GMT -8
Okay, just a little bottoming humor, because HONESTLY, I think we rally next week... Snippet of conversation from Avi's trading group (where we do NOT talk news or fundamentals): Me: The WTF Sale has transitioned to the GOOB Sale (Going Out of Business)! Have you bought at AAPL's GOOBer sale? I have!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Friend1: LOL i love sales..im getting me some
Friend2: BTW, what are they saying about AAPL in the news? I have no idea since I don't pay attention lol.
Me: some variation of "AAPL's going bankrupt tomorrow."
Friend1: cook sucks apple sucks go droid..yay samsung..you know IOW: buy, buy, buy!!! So Avi's board is pretty bullish at this point. What's Avi think?
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Post by rosie on Nov 2, 2012 9:06:00 GMT -8
my Ode to Inefficiency in the world: (hey, 11 cents over $590, we need something else to ponder)
Chehalis, WA, United States 11/02/2012 7:21 A.M. Out For Delivery 11/02/2012 5:18 A.M. Arrival Scan Portland, OR, United States 11/02/2012 4:00 A.M. Departure Scan 11/02/2012 12:55 A.M. Arrival Scan Seattle, WA, United States 11/01/2012 9:39 P.M. Departure Scan 11/01/2012 6:30 P.M. Arrival Scan 11/01/2012 6:15 P.M. Departure Scan 11/01/2012 5:43 P.M. Arrival Scan Louisville, KY, United States 11/01/2012 3:46 P.M. Departure Scan 11/01/2012 12:40 P.M. Import Scan Louisville, KY, United States 10/31/2012 12:02 A.M. Arrival Scan Anchorage, AK, United States 10/30/2012 2:15 P.M. Departure Scan 10/30/2012 11:22 A.M. Arrival Scan Narita, Japan 10/30/2012 9:41 P.M. Departure Scan 10/30/2012 7:55 P.M. Arrival Scan Shanghai, China 10/30/2012 4:17 P.M. Departure Scan ShangHai, China 10/29/2012 10:22 P.M. Departure Scan 10/29/2012 8:30 A.M. Arrival Scan 10/29/2012 7:30 A.M. Departure Scan 10/29/2012 1:45 A.M. Origin Scan China 10/28/2012 8:56 P.M. Order Processed: Ready for UPS
at some point today the big brown truck will roll up the driveway to deliver a small package that went from China to Japan to Alaska....then back East then back West to Seattle then south to Portland then North to Chehalis to eventually get to me . Where am I? 14 miles as the crow flies from Mt. St. Helens; and south of Chehalis, WA.
You do the Geography. Should we tell Tim?
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Post by kloot on Nov 2, 2012 9:08:16 GMT -8
Ugh. Headache with the dividend adjusted moving averages. Looks like I've been using non-adjusted moving averages, which was around 590.40. So yes, you are absolutely correct. My mistake. You want my take on dividend-adjusted moving averages? Complete and utter hogwash. It's people trying to over-complicate something that does not need adjusting. The price adjusts to the new reality and the moving averages follow. The MAs do not need to be tweaked. That is why I was completely disgusted the other day when I found that Prophet charts had adjusted things to account for a dividend. (Prophet also left a two day hole in my charts to account for the two closed days. How very stupid.) If ALL charting packages adjusted for things like this and it was the accepted way of doing things, then fair enough, but when only a few do it, then it's the minority that have it wrong. Trading is all about the herd mentality, not about being the "smart" individual going against the herd as they have a tendency to get trampled. i disagree. what if there's a special $100 one-time dividend? what if the regular dividend yield gets up to 4%? the corresponding drop in nominal stock price would look bearish on charts if not accounted for. you take the example of a stock split and then extrapolate it to dividends. you can't decide where to stop (what is significant, what isn't) so you have to adjust for all these events. i agree with stockcharts.com's approach. support.stockcharts.com/entries/20634-historical-price-data-is-adjusted-for-splits-dividends-and-distributions?st=adjust
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Post by cambrose on Nov 2, 2012 9:10:01 GMT -8
So underwater on my margin account and not able to take advantage of this wtf sale because of concentration limits (although that might change - applied for a limit increase), I'm selling off a third of my RRSP stock and putting it into Jan 14 650 calls. Said I would never sell my shares but it seems like the right thing to do at this point.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2012 9:11:19 GMT -8
I'm in agreement. Using a couple of metrics I developed and another that I refined since last week, I'm calling $588 the bottom.
From here I see AAPL trading sideways to up through November, then with confirmation that production running at top speed, I see a prolonged run up until the week before earnings. At that, only because of irrational exuberance, I see a slight pullback going down the stretch to earnings.
Post earnings will depend OP & TC comments for the March quarter. I can see, because of initial weakness in getting the iPhone 5 out the door that Apple will enter the March quarter with a healthy backlog.
I do not see the iPad mini as being a significant catalyst to earnings. Certainly it will cannibalize Samsung, MMSFT and Amazon efforts, but so too will it cannibalize Mac, MacBook and iPad sales. I see the mini as a fortress builder, preventing competitors from gaining traction in the 7" space. As much attention as is given that very small sub sector, it does not account for that many unit, and virtually none of the sector's profits.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2012 9:16:20 GMT -8
You want my take on dividend-adjusted moving averages? Complete and utter hogwash. It's people trying to over-complicate something that does not need adjusting. The price adjusts to the new reality and the moving averages follow. The MAs do not need to be tweaked. That is why I was completely disgusted the other day when I found that Prophet charts had adjusted things to account for a dividend. (Prophet also left a two day hole in my charts to account for the two closed days. How very stupid.) If ALL charting packages adjusted for things like this and it was the accepted way of doing things, then fair enough, but when only a few do it, then it's the minority that have it wrong. Trading is all about the herd mentality, not about being the "smart" individual going against the herd as they have a tendency to get trampled. i disagree. what if there's a special $100 one-time dividend? what if the regular dividend yield gets up to 4%? the corresponding drop in nominal stock price would look bearish on charts if not accounted for. you take the example of a stock split and then extrapolate it to dividends. you can't decide where to stop (what is significant, what isn't) so you have to adjust for all these events. i agree with stockcharts.com's approach. support.stockcharts.com/entries/20634-historical-price-data-is-adjusted-for-splits-dividends-and-distributions?st=adjustWoulda, shoulda, coulda. Until Apple ANNOUNCES a special $100 dividend, its vaporware. Taking into account things Apple has never done are opium smoke induced dreams.
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4aapl
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Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 2, 2012 9:18:33 GMT -8
If we hold the 200 day today for the second time in three trading days, I would like to think we're off to the races next week. But what about the FUD come monday morning, that the lines weren't long enough or that Apple's numbers aren't big enough, or that Apple didn't announce their numbers because they weren't big enough. Monday (and to a lesser extent today) is a prime FUD opportunity. I'm looking at trading in some stocks for options, but will wait until at least monday for the first portion of that.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 2, 2012 9:20:22 GMT -8
Sold some QCOM (and I love that stock...) and bought Apple at 590. Big chunks for a small investor like me...but GOOB or WTF or whatever, I love a good sale. Plus...I get a dividend just like I did with QCOM
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Post by appledoc on Nov 2, 2012 9:22:20 GMT -8
I'm looking at ~575 now for support. P/E 13 and P/C 4.5.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 2, 2012 9:26:00 GMT -8
Sold some QCOM (and I love that stock...) and bought Apple at 590. That to me sounds like an "all's clear" sign, remembering how you bought at the May '12 bottom (@522). Andy Zaky also came out with a buy signal around that time, if I remember correctly.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 2, 2012 9:27:46 GMT -8
my Ode to Inefficiency in the world: (hey, 11 cents over $590, we need something else to ponder) I'm guessing that all the way to KY was a plane full of them, and then from KY the package was on normal shipping flights and trucks. We have a similar problem here, even when the packages are on the truck. Fedex ships in a way you would expect, but with UPS it gets within about 40 miles from here (South Lake Tahoe), and then heads back over 100 miles to Sacramento. That adds a day on to the package's trip....a little frustrating when waiting for a replacement screen for the iMac.
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Post by onemoreanimal on Nov 2, 2012 9:34:15 GMT -8
I'm calling $588 the bottom. I was hoping you'd be right about that, but LOD is now $586.76 Btw, there's no shortage of articles about how disappointing the line lengths are, despite the long NYC and Japan lines. Could be playing into ugly action today.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 2, 2012 9:36:42 GMT -8
You want my take on dividend-adjusted moving averages? Complete and utter hogwash. It's people trying to over-complicate something that does not need adjusting. The price adjusts to the new reality and the moving averages follow. The MAs do not need to be tweaked. i disagree. what if there's a special $100 one-time dividend? what if the regular dividend yield gets up to 4%? the corresponding drop in nominal stock price would look bearish on charts if not accounted for. you take the example of a stock split and then extrapolate it to dividends. you can't decide where to stop (what is significant, what isn't) so you have to adjust for all these events. i agree with stockcharts.com's approach. Then we'll just have to agree to disagree. If the company gives away $100 a share, then it is worth that much less and the chart should reflect it. If anything it should go down by a larger amount as it has lost not only $100 but the opportunity that the $100 per share could bring. By that I mean that's $100 a share that the company does not have available to invest for further growth. That is a net negative for the company. Ultimately, it's price that matters, not some lines on a chart. Adjusting the price to not create a kink in the lines is ridiculous.
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Post by kloot on Nov 2, 2012 9:38:01 GMT -8
Woulda, shoulda, coulda. Until Apple ANNOUNCES a special $100 dividend, its vaporware. Taking into account things Apple has never done are opium smoke induced dreams. it's an example for illustrating why split and dividend adjustments are taken into account for TA.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 2, 2012 9:38:33 GMT -8
I'm calling $588 the bottom. I was hoping you'd be right about that, but LOD is now $586.76 Btw, there's no shortage of articles about how disappointing the line lengths are, despite the long NYC and Japan lines. Could be playing into ugly action today. All the articles fail to mention the shift to online preorders. Plus, the comparisons to iPhone lines need to stop. The iPad mini is NOT the craze driven iPhone and never will be.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 2, 2012 9:44:16 GMT -8
Just added to my long position.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 2, 2012 9:45:55 GMT -8
Right now, we are in "June 20, 2011" territory, since we passed the 200 day SMA, and are approaching the lower Bollinger Band.
Back then, it exceeded the lower BB (@ 314.38) and went as low as 310.50, before closing at 315.32. An equivalent move (in terms of points, not %) would require us to go to about 578-ish.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 2, 2012 9:54:12 GMT -8
Right now, we are in "June 20, 2011" territory, since we passed the 200 day SMA, and are approaching the lower Bollinger Band. Back then, it exceeded the lower BB (@ 314.38) and went as low as 310.50, before closing at 315.32. An equivalent move (in terms of points, not %) would require us to go to about 578-ish. May get that today with the way things are going.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 2, 2012 9:54:39 GMT -8
GAP FILLED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Buy, buy, buy, buy, buy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IMHO.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 2, 2012 9:57:41 GMT -8
Not that part, the capitulating 10-15 points lower. If we are already down, why would going 15 points lower be capitulating? It's not capitulation per se unless there's heavy volume. And no heavy volume today.
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Post by talphan on Nov 2, 2012 9:57:46 GMT -8
Been nibbling on April 650s on the way down, and some more just now. Might get sick if this doesn't stop soon...
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 2, 2012 9:57:49 GMT -8
Right now, we are in "June 20, 2011" territory, since we passed the 200 day SMA, and are approaching the lower Bollinger Band. Back then, it exceeded the lower BB (@ 314.38) and went as low as 310.50, before closing at 315.32. An equivalent move (in terms of points, not %) would require us to go to about 578-ish, since the lower BB is at 582.05.
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Post by miguelfoogo on Nov 2, 2012 10:04:09 GMT -8
[quote author=rosie board=intradayupdates thread=146 post=10808
at some point today the big brown truck will roll up the driveway to deliver a small package that went from China to Japan to Alaska....then back East then back West to Seattle then south to Portland then North to Chehalis to eventually get to me . Where am I? 14 miles as the crow flies from Mt. St. Helens; and south of Chehalis, WA.
You do the Geography. Should we tell Tim? [/quote]
Eh, it may not be pretty, but I am sure it is the cheapest way to get it there. Same reason you get a cheaper flight when you fly to some city in the opposite direction of your destination. Going where they want to take. It's just multiplied for a package.
That's logistics. as you UPS song says.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 2, 2012 10:08:17 GMT -8
HOLD ON, PEOPLE!!!! IMHO, NOT MUCH LONGER!!!!
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