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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 2, 2012 13:56:43 GMT -8
What an effing week!
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Post by Xphilos on Nov 2, 2012 15:18:11 GMT -8
Does anyone else think that this dip has felt really rushed? It's like the Evil Blowverlords have been trying to jam this sell-off in as fast as possible ahead of the imminent enthusiasm of Q4 sales numbers.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 2, 2012 15:30:13 GMT -8
Does anyone else think that this dip has felt really rushed? It's like the Evil Blowverlords have been trying to jam this sell-off in as fast as possible ahead of the imminent enthusiasm of Q4 sales numbers. I looked beck to 2008 to see the comparisons. This has been relentless except for the bounce to 652 which was sold off quickly. 6 straight weeks of down, 130 points gone and nothing but carnage. I am in deeeeep sh!t.
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Post by macziggy on Nov 2, 2012 15:50:41 GMT -8
I know that Goldman "Sucks" upgrades usually mean something else, that something else being DOWN. Forgot to notate that in their latest "upgrade." But Fitz didn't. His tweet from this afternoon: "BLUE-HORSESHOE @fitzstock2004 Wonder how shares $GS shorted on their $aapl upgrade " Note to self: Sell when GS upgrades AAPL!! Will burn into my brain!
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Post by vikesfaniv on Nov 2, 2012 16:26:17 GMT -8
Just called 3 Apple stores in the Phoenix area (Scottsdale, Gilbert, and Chandler.) All 3 are completely sold out of mini's. I'd say demand is plenty strong.
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Post by macziggy on Nov 2, 2012 16:28:31 GMT -8
Does anyone else think that this dip has felt really rushed? It's like the Evil Blowverlords have been trying to jam this sell-off in as fast as possible ahead of the imminent enthusiasm of Q4 sales numbers. I looked beck to 2008 to see the comparisons. This has been relentless except for the bounce to 652 which was sold off quickly. 6 straight weeks of down, 130 points gone and nothing but carnage. I am in deeeeep sh!t. I remember that time well. The drop was incredible. I remember many saying that AAPL would go to $50...a literal chorus of people everywhere saying $50 was the buy point. But, it never got close. The lowest it got was $78 in November 2008 one day after hours (down from $200). Then it held in consolidation until March 2009 when it started to go up again. Right after the election in 2008, Apple went from $111 down to that $78 range in about two weeks. I was holding some naked January 2009 options at the time that were completely washed-out. Glad I don't hold naked options anymore. But, what makes me nervous this time is if AAPL hits 564, that will mean a 20% correction and I think many will just sell at that. Hopefully, AAPL, once again, never gets that low. Today, though, I noticed that the weekly puts at 570 were highest and for the last week or two, on Friday, the mark has tended toward the highest put range. And, I made a mental note to myself that I thought the EOs would drag it down to 570 for expiration. Then, I though...nah.....could..not...possibly...happen....... BTW, the stocks I watched in 2008 all hit their lows at different times--some in November, some in December, some in February--which was something I never expected. They presented great buying opportunities. I bought Ford at around $1; FreeportMac at $10. WoW!
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Post by macziggy on Nov 2, 2012 16:37:21 GMT -8
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Post by nate010203 on Nov 2, 2012 16:54:47 GMT -8
I am now red for the year. The current price valuation is insane. I am mad at myself for holding thru this drop, but my hope is that apple can someday get back to 700.00 a share.
I wish everyone here the best and I know I am not the only one here experiencing pain.
I can only hope that next week ends green but that will be a miracle at this point.
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Post by cambrose on Nov 2, 2012 17:01:17 GMT -8
My iPad mini just showed up. Nice little device. Love the size and keyboard is awesome in portrait mode (I'm a thumbs typist). Screen is most definitely inferior to iPad 3 but perfectly usable. I'm sure we'll see retina minis next year and then these will drop to the sub $250 price point. My iPad 3 generally stayed at home but I definitely see taking this everywhere.
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Post by nate010203 on Nov 2, 2012 17:05:08 GMT -8
this was on the friday thread but I thought it was relevant I am kind of curious what did apple do today to justify it is 3.31% (18billion dollars) smaller than Thursday haha. Ohh wait all they did was release new successful ipads and sell millions of products all over the world. Makes sense. Amazon looses money yet has a p/e in the thousands has about half the shares apple has and makes 7 cents a share per year. I dont need to post apple valuations but suffice it to say this is insane. I am pretty much at this point expecting monday to be red.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2012 18:01:17 GMT -8
Think my Apple portfolio is down about 50% from the high, but still well up for the year.
It's all about perspective.
Valuable lessons learned as well. (On the way back up, whenever it happens, the next calls I roll out to a further date will include some hedging).
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Post by wheeles on Nov 2, 2012 18:05:28 GMT -8
this was on the friday thread but I thought it was relevant I am kind of curious what did apple do today to justify it is 3.31% (18billion dollars) smaller than Thursday haha. Ohh wait all they did was release new successful ipads and sell millions of products all over the world. Makes sense. Amazon looses money yet has a p/e in the thousands has about half the shares apple has and makes 7 cents a share per year. I dont need to post apple valuations but suffice it to say this is insane. I am pretty much at this point expecting monday to be red. What happened is that a hedge fund that was very long AAPL blew up. The word got out and then people started dumping AAPL just to make things worse. Earlier on, AAPL looked like it was shaping up for a sideways sort of day, with a possible upside breakout. Instead it ended up completing a move I thought would happen next week. Anyway, we should get some iPad mini figures on Monday which should start giving AAPL a lift. Then the prospect of a dividend payment should give AAPL a lift as shorts cover to avoid paying out.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 2, 2012 18:23:16 GMT -8
Wheeles, have you seen anything to confirm the hedge fund holding AAPL?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 2, 2012 18:30:03 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 2, 2012 18:38:07 GMT -8
The sharks love fresh chum like this. They will ensure this firms dies and will give them no graceful exit from the trading error.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 2, 2012 18:41:28 GMT -8
Fat Finger Syndrome. Know the signs, don't let it happen to you. Or something like that.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 2, 2012 18:42:05 GMT -8
After reading my guess is 1 million shares, the million dollars is not enough to impact a firm. I still do not see how this could have caused much harm if all they hold are shares. It seems as though once WS smelled blood in the water they pounced.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 2, 2012 18:46:50 GMT -8
Well, if Rochdale was way overleveraged after that trade, doesn't take too much for problems to arise, I guess.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 2, 2012 18:54:17 GMT -8
Just want to report a little anecdotal good news in these trying times. I went an Apple store today at 3:00 and it was PACKED. Not just for the iPad Mini, mind you, but the entire store was full, front to back. Every other store in the mall was empty. I was actually bumped into several times - when's the last time that happened to you in a store? The stock is at $575, but the fundamental case for owning/long AAPL has never been stronger, in my opinion. There are some dirt cheap plays that can give huge returns right now. Only problem is scrounging up the cash.
I tried out the iPad Mini and I love it. I've never been too tempted to get a regular iPad but something about the Mini makes me want it. It will be amazing for travelling and fits right in my inside jacket pocket and I can barely feel it. Everything works really well - despite the "old" processor everything is fluid and smooth as expected. The only drawback is the screen resolution. I've been so spoiled by my iPhone 4 and 5 that I can definitely notice the fuzzy text when browsing. Apps and movies are fine, but reading and browsing are impacted by this. Still haven't decided if I'll take the plunge as the screen is making me hesitate, but I'm awfully tempted. This thing is going to sell in huge numbers, I'm quite sure of it.
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icam
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Post by icam on Nov 2, 2012 19:03:27 GMT -8
The sharks love fresh chum like this. They will ensure this firms dies and will give them no graceful exit from the trading error. Is it possible that Rochdale only has $3.4 million in capital?
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Post by lance on Nov 2, 2012 19:59:56 GMT -8
Has any of the members from this site began to post their Q1 estimates? Is anyone modelling a Y-O-Y decline in EPS similar to Apples guidance of 11.75? Or do most people believe that is extremely conservative and apple will still beat 13.87EPS from last year? I have noticed analyst estimates in the last week have come down to 13.30 average eps estimate according to yahoo finance. The stock appears to be trading based on the fact aapl will reduce its EPS for this quarter.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2012 20:08:45 GMT -8
Yes apple will beat last years EPS. Also remember last year they had an extra week in the quarter, so even if something goes wrong and they only match last years eps, it will still be an increase seeing as its 13 weeks compared to last years 14 weeks.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 2, 2012 20:15:10 GMT -8
YOY also requires context.
Analysts and WS thoroughly understand the 14-week vs. 13-week distinction...Oppenheimer made sure they did, just in case. So that's a non-issue.
The $52B rev guidance is intriguing. I have to get around to seeing a reasonable way Apple could get there, and whether it makes sense given what we know.
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 2, 2012 20:15:28 GMT -8
Has any of the members from this site began to post their Q1 estimates? Is anyone modelling a Y-O-Y decline in EPS similar to Apples guidance of 11.75? Or do most people believe that is extremely conservative and apple will still beat 13.87EPS from last year? I have noticed analyst estimates in the last week have come down to 13.30 average eps estimate according to yahoo finance. The stock appears to be trading based on the fact aapl will reduce its EPS for this quarter. Hi iPad. I maintain that Q1 will be a challenging quarter due to product availability and lower GM due to Apple refreshing their product line in Q1. (they should have done it last quarter) However, I do think that iPhone 5 production will improve. And they will continue to sell a good amount of the iPhone 4 and 4s. The Apple ecosystem is still a huge advantage. My WAG is $13.75 to $14.25 EPS for Q1. The story for Q1 will be the lack of product availability. There will be choppy trading through January.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 2, 2012 20:17:04 GMT -8
The extra week from last year is going to create problems, but with that revenue number Apple gave, it implies above 13.87 to me. The EPS numbers were out of control by everyone. I had read about $21, that's never gonna happen. With Apple guiding to 11.75, I think best case would be 16. Since WS was at 15 and have lowered to 13, yes, p/e contraction is possible.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 3, 2012 7:30:34 GMT -8
Analysts and WS thoroughly understand the 14-week vs. 13-week distinction... And how much influence can retail dumb bunnies have? Especially if misdirected by FUD?
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Post by appledoc on Nov 3, 2012 7:52:43 GMT -8
TC stating that an iP5 China rollout will happen in December gives me faith that the supply constraints are improving and will only continue to improve.
Regardless, I think Q2 will trump Q1. I'm basing that on a maxed out production line, China Mobile release and the Chinese New Year in February.
Good things come to those who are patient. We might not see $700 this quarter, but we will reach new ATHs in early 2013.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 3, 2012 8:04:19 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 3, 2012 9:02:35 GMT -8
It's really kinda funny to think that the iPad could very quickly become second fiddle to the upstart iPad mini. And by extension, have the smaller tablet market dwarf, well, iPad.
But I gotta tell ya - having had a chance to see and try out an iPad mini at the local Apple Store (yup, sold out)...iPad mini will soon take the sales crown. I'm not even sure price will be the #1 reason. iPad mini almost feels like what iPad should have been all along.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 3, 2012 9:10:42 GMT -8
I have to agree about the Mini. I repeat - it is going to sell in massive numbers, and Apple was 100% correct to not price it any lower. The novelty of the device will be enough to sell for the first year. Once the retina display is in next year - game over.
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