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Post by mbeauch on Nov 4, 2012 10:01:09 GMT -8
He is an antagonist (bosco), gotta love the internet. I hope Lovey keeps her axe sharp in case he decides to wander over here.
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 4, 2012 10:05:04 GMT -8
Am I the only one who dreads tomorrow ? Might be. I'm on a self imposed investment sabbatical. Been out for about a month. The earliest I expect to get back is this Thursday. If my time frame was greater than January 2014 I wouldn't be worrying about it at all. Less than January 2013 would make me nervous, and everything in between cautious. Then you got out before the majority of this downturn hit. Congrats to you. What do you see Thursday that makes it your chosen day?
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Post by tofdriver on Nov 4, 2012 10:23:21 GMT -8
Am I the only one that is excited about the seemingly deliberate gap that was created in the product calendar in March...Apple will announce something ...maybe it is a TV , maybe it is streaming audio, maybe a new car interface...not sure what it is going to be but it is going to be big... It is inconceivable that Apple will not have an event until the fall of 2013. As rumors will start leaking about the new product , ( Gene Munster, you are up ) , hype will reach a feverish pitch and momentum will shift . Add to this great earnings in q1 and q2 and life should be good around springtime... I'm going to bet that there will be a new iPad in march April , thinner, new screen tech ( laminated, or igzo, or gfditto or a combo of those) and stereo speaker. Of course this last month just showed how wrong I can be with my bets
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 4, 2012 10:26:49 GMT -8
Oh, Bosco the entertainer. At this point I wouldn't rule out $530 in the very short term term, but would also not rule out $640 sometime through the end of this year. I say a higher probability is attached to the latter, but at this point, who knows. The TA is starting to scream possible upside. In all honesty, with earnings for Q1 2013 so far away, what is the catalyst? China Mobile? Not this year. New disruptive product? Dunno. iPad Mini? Great entry, but meh. We all know that AAPL is selling the sh_t out of it's product (demand is not the issue), but in recent memory hasn't it always been that way? Maybe we will have to wait till earnings for reaffirmation of the story we all here know to be true (at least for the next 1 1/2 to 2 years). Maybe the EO's will surprise us and buy calls this time for the move back up. In the meantime, I need to go look for my Titanic avatar as I am taking on serious water. I will never (NEVER) get seduced by the next upward move again when it turned out there was only $25 in price move left beyond a 16 PE, or $680 at 16 x $42.54. Might even shoot for exit at a 15.25 to 15.5 PE. Maybe I will liquidate it all and put it in AMZN or some other company that doesn't make money. Let's face it, the AAPL story is too obvious for the EO's not to take advantage of. If my wife only knew what my paper losses have been since Sept 21 I would have to change my gender on this website. Sorry, have to go now as JD says my therapy session is over and I can't afford the overage charge. Good luck to all.
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Post by tofdriver on Nov 4, 2012 10:28:03 GMT -8
Gregg, why not have both? One brand new iPad and iPad Mini, and one year old model of each device. There is overlap but there are also different target consumers for each device. We've seen the lower cost older device business model work extremely well with iPhones so why not do the same with iPads? Production costs will be low and it may help ease some of the supply problems that are the norm with new Apple products. Just as a casual observation, a lot of my friends are interested now in refurbished iPad 3s, because it hits the size/performance/cost sweet spot for them. I just bought a refurbished iPad 3 my self!
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Post by appledoc on Nov 4, 2012 10:28:38 GMT -8
Am I the only one that is excited about the seemingly deliberate gap that was created in the product calendar in March...Apple will announce something ...maybe it is a TV , maybe it is streaming audio, maybe a new car interface...not sure what it is going to be but it is going to be big... It is inconceivable that Apple will not have an event until the fall of 2013. As rumors will start leaking about the new product , ( Gene Munster, you are up ) , hype will reach a feverish pitch and momentum will shift . Add to this great earnings in q1 and q2 and life should be good around springtime... I'm going to bet that there will be a new iPad in march April , thinner, new screen tech ( laminated, or igzo, or gfditto or a combo of those) and stereo speaker. Of course this last month just showed how wrong I can be with my bets I hope not. Changing the production line again? Here's what I'm hoping for: Fiscal Q1: iPad mini Fiscal Q2: Fiscal Q3: iPad Fiscal Q4: iPhone
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 4, 2012 10:50:30 GMT -8
After doing some rough napkin math, when you back out the cash, we sit at roughly the same p/e as we did last November. Last October we actually missed WS expectations and guidance for Q1 was well below what any of us thought it would be, (oh the similarities). We did miss this time, but i do not think .08c should have the same impact, but hey, I am biased. What really has me concerned is the S&P and the DOW are both poised for down. That DOW candle Friday was the worst I had seen in a long time. (bearish engulfing and the 200 DMA just a stones throw away. I don't see any scenario where the market moves up after the election. I know the uncertainty will be gone, but reality will also be shown. AAPL is a leader and has fallen hard, I expect the market to not be far behind. Under that backdrop I struggle with where AAPL can find support. Just my .02, but I think the lower BB on the weekly is fast approaching and in our future. It sits at 555 and is turning down. I am already financially devastated and I am frozen in my tracks.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 12:05:33 GMT -8
Here's my take on things...
The EOs are equal opportunity hunters; they take equal pleasure in bankrupting bears and bulls. At 705, they STO'ed new calls to greedy bulls and fearful bears, and BTC'ed the puts they sold at 570 to greedy bears and fearful bulls. At 575, they again STO'ed new puts to greedy bears and fearful bulls, and BTC'ed the calls they STO'ed at 705 to greedy bulls and fearful bears. See how this works? Very soon, bear-hunting season will commence.
Friday looked like a pukefest. The value of unhedged calls collapsed. Looked like a whole bunch of permabulls jumped ship. That's what capitulation looks like. Now maybe we have some more puking, more forced selling and margin liquidations and whatnot. But anyone who thinks the sky is falling at this point: you're too late...the sky already fell. If you ignored the signs, dismissed them as FUD, well lesson learned...yet again. The sky starts falling around P/E 16...not 13. Around the upper BB, not the lower. Above SMA-20, not below SMA-200.
Pay attention when people get scared after a 100+ point bull run, not after a 100+ point bear run.
If you're still in, STAY IN!!!!!!!!!!
And here, for the Worst-Case Scenario Crowd: even if AAPL's going to 400 because xxxx (insert your reason here), there will be a retest of the daily SMA-50. If you're still scared by then, lighten up or hedge there. NOT HERE.
Remember those OCT'12 650 calls? I bought them between 10.00 and 12.00...sold 1/2 around 18.00 (did not want to sell but risk management rules made me)...they went down to around 5.00...(I was thankful I sold 1/2)... I dumped the rest at 13.00 (around 600 because I was certain we'd see 550 before 650). They went to 50.00+ without me.
Moral of the story? Everyone's a dumbass at some point. Just don't be one HERE.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 4, 2012 12:08:16 GMT -8
I'm going to bet that there will be a new iPad in march April , thinner, new screen tech ( laminated, or igzo, or gfditto or a combo of those) and stereo speaker. Of course this last month just showed how wrong I can be with my bets I hope not. Changing the production line again? Here's what I'm hoping for: Fiscal Q1: iPad mini Fiscal Q2: Fiscal Q3: iPad Fiscal Q4: iPhone Agree with this. Going back to a summer iPhone release makes all kinds of sense. Q4 can return to being a quarter of strength as supply catches up to demand. Then Q1 will be phenomenal as supply/demand equilibrium is hopefully reached, as well as an iPad Mini refresh. Q2 will also be strong due to Chinese New Year. Q3 will probably be relatively weak but the 9.7" iPad update here would help shore the tide. This setup would give a nice balance throughout the year, would ease of the supply problems and would still have blowout holiday quarter sales. This is all hypothetical, though, and I still believe Apple should only release products when they are ready and not just to meet a date. But maybe they could plan around this kind of timetable. An added bonus to a summer 2013 iPhone release is that it would be a quicker response to the upcoming Galaxy S4, which will no doubt sell well and potentially grab some iPhone sales. There is real competition now.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Nov 4, 2012 13:07:07 GMT -8
Broken record time! Don't think in terms of lost sales. You'll drive yourself crazy every time trying to deduct a number from an "open field" estimate given a certain competitor. Competition happens and Apple thrives on it. Use growth rates instead - it's easy to subsume competition by adjusting the rate, and no one said you can't project negative growth. Also note, competition works both ways. Apple affects Android too, even though Android is the faster-growing platform. And really, is that so much of a surprise considering the competition having outsold Apple since Day 1, with hundreds of millions of dumbphones and far fewer smartphones, with everyone who still can aggressively mix-shifting towards smartphones, including those that still count despite being about as powerful as an iPhone 3GS and are really better classified as featurephones in today's terms? Here's an example of being able to pad numbers by playing in markets Apple isn't really interested in: www.motorola.com/us/consumers/MOTOROLA-i867/105629,en_US,pd.html
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 4, 2012 13:07:44 GMT -8
I have been reading an interesting paper that i thought you might enjoy.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1892972
What I found interesting was that odd lot trades are not reported on the consolidated tape. In addition, the HFT trades typically split the transactions into odd lots. This seems to indicate that for stocks like Apple, much of the volume in trades is not reported. In other words, it is possible for an EO to sell in lots over 100 and drive the price down while buying in odd lots to maintain or increase their position. Still wondering why things don't make sense?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 4, 2012 13:15:51 GMT -8
I'm humiliated...hey, I got it in Europe so it's o.k. At least murse is better than moobs, and easier to hide or get rid of.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 4, 2012 13:23:26 GMT -8
Just ordered 4 minis for the kids and spouses for Christmas. Polygamy might have its advantages, but, man, it can sure get expensive. Good for AAPL longs though.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 4, 2012 13:25:09 GMT -8
Here's my take on things... The EOs are equal opportunity hunters; they take equal pleasure in bankrupting bears and bulls. At 705, they STO'ed new calls to greedy bulls and fearful bears, and BTC'ed the puts they sold at 570 to greedy bears and fearful bulls. At 575, they again STO'ed new puts to greedy bears and fearful bulls, and BTC'ed the calls they STO'ed at 705 to greedy bulls and fearful bears. See how this works? Very soon, bear-hunting season will commence. Friday looked like a pukefest. The value of unhedged calls collapsed. Looked like a whole bunch of permabulls jumped ship. That's what capitulation looks like. Now maybe we have some more puking, more forced selling and margin liquidations and whatnot. But anyone who thinks the sky is falling at this point: you're too late...the sky already fell. If you ignored the signs, dismissed them as FUD, well lesson learned...yet again. The sky starts falling around P/E 16...not 13. Around the upper BB, not the lower. Above SMA-20, not below SMA-200. Pay attention when people get scared after a 100+ point bull run, not after a 100+ point bear run. If you're still in, STAY IN!!!!!!!!!! And here, for the Worst-Case Scenario Crowd: even if AAPL's going to 400 because xxxx (insert your reason here), there will be a retest of the daily SMA-50. If you're still scared by then, lighten up or hedge there. NOT HERE. Remember those OCT'12 650 calls? I bought them between 10.00 and 12.00...sold 1/2 around 18.00 (did not want to sell but risk management rules made me)...they went down to around 5.00...(I was thankful I sold 1/2)... I dumped the rest at 13.00 (around 600 because I was certain we'd see 550 before 650). They went to 50.00+ without me. Moral of the story? Everyone's a dumbass at some point. Just don't be one HERE. This post gets printed and stuck on my fridge. Wish I could be this clear and logical....and unemotional.. Investing requires ice in the veins.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 4, 2012 13:34:11 GMT -8
Just a thought about iPad mini ship times:
Y'know, I'm really not seeing a "supply shortage" of iPad mini this quarter, so much as Apple trying to keep its supply chain and shipping logistics under control with all this new product, with a hint of mitigating buyer fatigue just a little bit. If Apple can move 5 million iPhone 5s with 10 launch countries, iPad mini Wi-Fi should do quite respectably with over 30 launch countries, even though we're not likely to get any iPad mini launch numbers at all.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 4, 2012 13:45:34 GMT -8
Remember those OCT'12 650 calls? I bought them between 10.00 and 12.00...sold 1/2 around 18.00 (did not want to sell but risk management rules made me)...they went down to around 5.00...(I was thankful I sold 1/2)... I dumped the rest at 13.00 (around 600 because I was certain we'd see 550 before 650). They went to 50.00+ without me. Moral of the story? Everyone's a dumbass at some point. Just don't be one HERE. You left out that those Oct '12 650 calls then went to 0. You got out at what, an average gain of 30%. Sure, some people maybe made as much as 400% if traded just right, but others lost 100%. I'd rather be up 30% than lose 100%. It's just that potential gain that makes it look like you really missed out, while not thinking much about that potential loss. You did good. A 30% gain is great to most investors. And you kept the funds around to invest another day.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 13:56:18 GMT -8
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Post by roni on Nov 4, 2012 13:58:40 GMT -8
Here's my take on things... Friday looked like a pukefest. The value of unhedged calls collapsed. If you're still in, STAY IN!!!!!!!!!! Moral of the story? Everyone's a dumbass at some point. Just don't be one HERE. I did a lot of snipping there. I was in meetings most of the day on Friday. I will be in meetings half day on Monday, half day on Tuesday, all day on Wednesday and Thursday. I did some buying last week. I am still up triple digits for the year and have no plans to sell at this time. None. Nothing expires before April, most does Jan 2014 and 2015 and suddenly over the last month my divvy positions have become a larger proportion of our portfolio
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 14:01:12 GMT -8
Might be. I'm on a self imposed investment sabbatical. Been out for about a month. The earliest I expect to get back is this Thursday. If my time frame was greater than January 2014 I wouldn't be worrying about it at all. Less than January 2013 would make me nervous, and everything in between cautious. Then you got out before the majority of this downturn hit. Congrats to you. What do you see Thursday that makes it your chosen day? Well, last week I called a bottom at $587, and was wrong. By this Thursday I think we will have sufficient data to say this bear run has completed its stampede. Small entries will be in order at that time, but keep LOTS of powder dry.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 14:01:27 GMT -8
You did good. A 30% gain is great to most investors. And you kept the funds around to invest another day. Aw, thanks!!! You want me to dig up better examples of me being a dumbass? I've got 'em!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 14:03:29 GMT -8
Well, last week I called a bottom at $587, and was wrong. By this Thursday I think we will have sufficient data to say this bear run has completed its stampede. Small entries will be in order at that time, but keep LOTS of powder dry. I thought it took freakin' forever to fill that 585-ish gap. Then, the overthrow took no time at all. I'm about out of dry powder. I start hocking jewelry soon. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 4, 2012 14:04:46 GMT -8
"Overthrow?"
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 14:07:20 GMT -8
Brokerage generally prevent accounts from imploding if investors/traders go all-in on a single stock. Rochdale obviously didn't have any such safety net, as restrictive as some of us retail types might find it. The More You Know™ about being smart with leverage, I guess... This wasn't client money. It was Rochdale funds.
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Post by rickag on Nov 4, 2012 14:14:33 GMT -8
Off topic, but maybe someone can help.
When I'm on my iPhone using Wifi I can log in. But if I turn off Wifi and try to log in I can't.
Is there some obscure setting on iPhones that would cause this?
At work I don't have Wifi so I can't post or read the Technicals thread.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 4, 2012 14:16:09 GMT -8
ProBoards doesn't play well with certain flavors of AT&T cellular. No fix in sight.
Not sure about other carriers.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 14:27:18 GMT -8
hledgard, I moved your posts: Here
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 14:30:05 GMT -8
Breach of the target, often temporary. Like sometimes, when a trendline is broken, but not definitively and/or not for long, then the same trendline reasserts itself, often "trapping" those who thought the breach was the real thing (i.e., the game changer). Make sense?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 4, 2012 14:30:10 GMT -8
In all honesty, with earnings for Q1 2013 so far away, what is the catalyst? It always comes back to fundamentals. On the macro side it's which Country is getting ready to screw the rest of the fiscally responsible world, and on the micro side which Company is going to outperform guidance, and which isn't. The Institutions are going to lay low going into December. Then, if early channel checks (suppliers not retailers) look good they may open the purse strings a bit. Watch PPS, P/C Ratio and volume. Come December expiry they will have unofficial reports from Apple Suppliers as to the Supplier's quarterly results. This will be extrapolated to likely Apple results. At this time we will see the beginnings of a run, or another sell off. Whatever happens, post December expiry will be predictive of how the Institutions view Apple's upcoming earnings report AND March quarter guidance.
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Post by rickag on Nov 4, 2012 14:36:29 GMT -8
ProBoards doesn't play well with certain flavors of AT&T cellular. No fix in sight. Not sure about other carriers. Thank you for the answer. I am on AT&T. Weird that this problem just started in the on my iPhone in the last few days. Does anyone know if buying the Proboards app corrects the issue?
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Post by rosie on Nov 4, 2012 14:43:31 GMT -8
ProBoards doesn't play well with certain flavors of AT&T cellular. No fix in sight. Not sure about other carriers. Thank you for the answer. I am on AT&T. Weird that this problem just started in the on my iPhone in the last few days. Does anyone know if buying the Proboards app corrects the issue? Have you done the iOS 6.0.1 update yet? It might fix the issue. It might not, but you probably want to update anyhow.
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