Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 15, 2013 21:21:30 GMT -8
Hm. Good news, deagol was right-on with revs last quarter, though he missed GM (I missed worse than he did, IIRC).
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 16, 2013 8:33:24 GMT -8
Wall Street analyst pot shot time.
Macs Brian Blair, Mac estimate 6 M. Nehal Chokski 5.6 John Bright 5.7
iPhones Jim Kelleher 44.4 M Daniel Ernst 45 Shebly Seyrafi 45 Brian White 43.06 Hendi Susanto 43.7
iPods
Maynard Um 15.5 Scott Craig 14.63
iPads
Matthew Hoffman 18.23 Brian Marshall 19 Jim Kelleher 16.8
Just saying.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 16, 2013 10:03:32 GMT -8
Brian white at 43 m iphones is a head scratcher.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 16, 2013 12:24:46 GMT -8
Wall Street analyst pot shot time. MacsBrian Blair, Mac estimate 6 M. Nehal Chokski 5.6 John Bright 5.7 iPhonesJim Kelleher 44.4 M Daniel Ernst 45 Shebly Seyrafi 45 Brian White 43.06 Hendi Susanto 43.7 iPodsMaynard Um 15.5 Scott Craig 14.63 iPadsMatthew Hoffman 18.23 Brian Marshall 19 Jim Kelleher 16.8 Just saying. Here are the latest numbers from Katy Huberty: Macs: 5.2 iPhones: 50.0 iPods: 11.5 iPads: 20.0
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Post by chasmac on Jan 16, 2013 13:55:03 GMT -8
Brian white at 43 m iphones is a head scratcher. How's AAPL supposed to get to $Eleventy-billion with those kind of numbers?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 16, 2013 13:57:59 GMT -8
150% gross margin. I see WS analysts as cyclical. Some do well for a little while, but never long term. Unless The End is Near™ (or smartphone growth or iPhone growth), Apple should be able to hit that 50M target as long as the supply is there. Just the way that Oppenheimer guided, to even forecast 45M iPhones sold strains common sense!
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 16, 2013 14:07:41 GMT -8
Brian white at 43 m iphones is a head scratcher. How's AAPL supposed to get to $Eleventy-billion with those kind of numbers? Eleventy? Chas, you drinking early or what?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 16, 2013 14:23:21 GMT -8
Now it's your turn, MB.
Brian White really likes the number 11, y'know?
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 16, 2013 14:31:32 GMT -8
Now it's your turn, MB. Brian White really likes the number 11, y'know? LOL, 1111 got it.
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deagol
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Amateur Apple analyst since 2001
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Post by deagol on Jan 16, 2013 14:38:54 GMT -8
Well, we need diluted share counts to see if the buyback program really is putting a halt to share creep. I'll wait for the info release next Wednesday then. It's not even Basic (Income Statement) which uses the average over the period and would normally be a tiny bit lower than the EoQ count (Balance Sheet). Still, it shows no creep from Sep 29 (939,208,xxx) to Dec 17 (938,818,605). I'm keeping diluted flat from Sep at 948,186,xxx. Plugging the guidance numbers yields 947,829,787 (fake precision).
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 16, 2013 14:41:25 GMT -8
Well, we need diluted share counts to see if the buyback program really is putting a halt to share creep. I'll wait for the info release next Wednesday then. It's not even Basic (Income Statement) which uses the average over the period and would normally be a tiny bit lower than the EoQ count (Balance Sheet). Still, it shows no creep from Sep 29 (939,208,xxx) to Dec 17 (938,818,605). I'm keeping diluted flat from Sep at 948,186,xxx. Plugging the guidance numbers yields 947,829,787 (fake precision). Wow, Daniel your ears must have been burning and had to figure out where it was coming from. Great numbers, I hope you are right.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 19, 2013 23:12:22 GMT -8
Pre-earnings weekend topic bump!
Watch this space for last-minute revisions in the next few days. I'll probably whip up a "whisper number" myself.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 20, 2013 8:25:55 GMT -8
What seems pretty certain, sort of.......
55 billion in revenue 38 and above on GM. ( these two are like a Mississippi flood plain.....sandbagged!
But products? I think....
52 million iPhones ( I keep rolling around this number, with channel fill being a maybe big factor)
24 million iPads....( the mix, the supply, the demand....oy!)
5.4 million Macs....
GM at 39.5
I'm just not comfortable yet....
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Jan 20, 2013 8:34:15 GMT -8
That seems reasonable. And what does the "pretty certain" $55/38% give us as an EPS output, all other factors being a little more predictable, can anyone please share?
Apologies if this seems lazy to ask, but I don't have a model to plug numbers into as I know many here have.
EDIT: FWIW I think iPad will surprise to the upside, I'm looking at 26-28m. Phones over 50m I'm not so comfortable with.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2013 8:57:56 GMT -8
Take the 1-2 hours if you have spare time between now and Wednesday. (Or now and next earnings report.)
I'm not presuming you have the spare time. But IF you do, the fundamentals spreadsheet is a must for all investors who want to understand their company better IMHO.
And once you get the Excel/Numbers/OpenOffice spreadsheet up the maths is actually pretty easy. I figure Ensign's EPS @ 38% GM is around $13.50.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 20, 2013 9:27:17 GMT -8
Take the 1-2 hours if you have spare time between now and Wednesday. (Or now and next earnings report.) I'm not presuming you have the spare time. But IF you do, the fundamentals spreadsheet is a must for all investors who want to understand their company better IMHO. And once you get the Excel/Numbers/OpenOffice spreadsheet up the maths is actually pretty easy. I figure Ensign's EPS @ 38% GM is around $13.50. Darn good Mav....I backed my 39.5 current estimate back to 38% and the EPS would be $13.57 iPads have disappointed me for three consecutive quarters now.....they make me nervous.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2013 9:41:50 GMT -8
You know why it's easy? Aside from groupthink ;D, GM is a KEY determinant. Not only will OpEx and tax rate and OI&E tend not to vary widely from person to person (Oppenheimer is pretty accurate on those btw), they don't affect the bottom line calculations nearly as much as GM does. So what seems a little work-intensive becomes second nature after a while.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2013 9:43:21 GMT -8
Ensign, iPads make me nervous but also very optimistic on iPhones. $52B is no joke.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Jan 20, 2013 10:52:32 GMT -8
RSE to your point, I think iPad is in a whole different league in terms of Christmas seasonality thus the 3 disappointments. And I think iPad mini is more incremental - and therefore less cannibalistic - than anyone gives credit for. These thoughts drive my aggressive expectations.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 20, 2013 11:38:01 GMT -8
If you wore the "right" tinfoil hat - and theorized that iPad would have seasonality somewhere between iPods and iPhones/Macs, as well as potential market ceiling in between a media consumption device and a dedicated computer - the iPad numbers disappoint less.
iPad mini will really hurt iPad regular sales over time. Even though iPad won't become iPad classic, it'll be second fiddle in sales permanently IMHO.
All according to plan.
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Post by nathanstevens on Jan 22, 2013 8:57:07 GMT -8
I'm new to this and this is my first estimate. I just wanted to get on the record before the announcement, so take my numbers with a grain of salt. I used the average historical beat of revenue guidance going back to Q2 2010 as a basis for my estimate. AAPL averaged a 18.46% guidance revenue beat during this period (excluding throw away Q3 and Q4 2012 numbers as I felt those were biased too low because of "future product demand"). Given revenue guidance of $52B: Revenue - $61.6B GM - 39% EPS - $15.86 I backed into those numbers using the following unit sales: 54M iPhones 25M iPads 5.6M Macs 12.3M iPods
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 22, 2013 10:01:43 GMT -8
good try Nathan. I could be in the same ballpark as most of those numbers. Once again, we will see.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 22, 2013 11:11:06 GMT -8
A puzzle piece that can't be taken off the table:
Good iPhone number, but YOY ASP decline? There's only one hint of increased non-iPhone 5 popularity through Verizon, but there may be some effect felt at least in CDMA markets. Hmmm.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2013 11:17:44 GMT -8
A puzzle piece that can't be taken off the table: Good iPhone number, but YOY ASP decline? There's only one hint of increased non-iPhone 5 popularity through Verizon, but there may be some effect felt at least in CDMA markets. Hmmm. Possible. I'm considering trimming my iPhone ASP by 5-10%.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2013 11:20:16 GMT -8
If you wore the "right" tinfoil hat - and theorized that iPad would have seasonality somewhere between iPods and iPhones/Macs, as well as potential market ceiling in between a media consumption device and a dedicated computer - the iPad numbers disappoint less. iPad mini will really hurt iPad regular sales over time. Even though iPad won't become iPad classic, it'll be second fiddle in sales permanently IMHO. All according to plan. The curious thing will be what happens to the $399 iPad 2. Will it be replaced by a $399 iPad 9.7" retina? Or a $399 iPad mini retina?
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Post by nathanstevens on Jan 22, 2013 11:32:09 GMT -8
If you wore the "right" tinfoil hat - and theorized that iPad would have seasonality somewhere between iPods and iPhones/Macs, as well as potential market ceiling in between a media consumption device and a dedicated computer - the iPad numbers disappoint less. iPad mini will really hurt iPad regular sales over time. Even though iPad won't become iPad classic, it'll be second fiddle in sales permanently IMHO. All according to plan. The curious thing will be what happens to the $399 iPad 2. Will it be replaced by a $399 iPad 9.7" retina? Or a $399 iPad mini retina? Or will a price drop to $299 for the current version of the mini be announced in time for the huge volume of purchases for the 2013/2014 school year? I'm looking for the education market to be a huge source of revs for Q3.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 22, 2013 11:48:15 GMT -8
my optimistic EPS SWAG $16.68
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 22, 2013 17:34:51 GMT -8
OK, my estimates are "final enough". ;D Changes: Moved up iPhone to 51.5M units at reduced ASP of $640, lowered iPod to 12.75M units, lowered GM to 39.5% Revs: About $56B ($55.989B, close enough), EPS is almost unchanged at $14.36. Guidance: I'd prefer $47B/$10.50ish. Based on my hopefully overconservative back-of-the-napkin math for fiscal Q2, I'm prepared if Oppenheimer guides "as low as" $45B/$9.75-$10. Hey, if the Q1 actuals are good enough, I won't care nearly as much.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 22, 2013 18:54:39 GMT -8
Mav, we're close to identical. I had those numbers in middle of November. Makes me wonder about trading.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 22, 2013 18:59:11 GMT -8
Trading earnings or trading numbers? At day's end I have a difficult time seeing iPhone declining so precipitously so soon. But a little north of 50M iPhones still seems like a pretty sober number.
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