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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 18, 2012 13:00:08 GMT -8
I believe we have achievable numbers overall. I like my ASP's. By comparison, this represents an increase in the average EPS for my spreadsheets of the past month. $ 14.50 EPS on $ 56.3 B revenue Attachments:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 18, 2012 13:29:53 GMT -8
New numbers Cl4?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2012 13:36:52 GMT -8
Well! +2M iPhone 5s for China in 3 days isn't too shabby with a few more shipping days to go and on-demand supply everywhere. Better still: There's meeting supply/demand balance, and then there's meeting targets for channel inventory. Now that iPhone 5 channel inventory can be buffered (though whether it'll end up within Apple's stated target range, we'll have to wait and see), that should help the iPhone numbers for fiscal Q1. I've been thinking for awhile that Apple's conservative guidance may not have included any iPhone 5 sales in China. Keep in mind that the outcomes of the US presidential election and new Chinese leadership were not confirmed at the time of the last conference call when guidance was announced. With all of the harsh rhetoric on US trade policies with China being thrown around during the campaigns and the fact that most of the major telecoms in China have substantial government ownership, I think that it would have been reasonable for Apple to anticipate some regulatory hurdles to gain approval for the iPhone 5 in China prior to the January 20th US presidential inauguration. Apple had to anticipate that the approval of one of their products for sale in China could have been a major negotiating point for a new Chinese leadership with a new US Pres. if necessary. Maybe I'm being way too optimistic, but being an engineer myself, I know how conservative engineers can be. 2M iPhone 5 sales in three days with 13 days to go. Assuming sales drop off by 50% versus the opening weekend rate that would still mean more than 6M IPhone 5 sales in China during this quarter. That's $3.6B in revenues that might not have been included in a super conservative guidance scenario. A 13% revenue beat plus $3.6B equals $62.36B. Here's to wishful thinking. TC mentioned a December China iPhone Launch in the conference call, so I take it that it was included in guidance.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 18, 2012 13:37:45 GMT -8
yes. I've re-evaluating iPhone and gross margin mainly.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2012 13:39:14 GMT -8
I believe we have achievable numbers overall. I like my ASP's. By comparison, this represents an increase in the average EPS for my spreadsheets of the past month. $ 14.50 EPS on $ 56.3 B revenue I like those numbers. Although I think your iPad mini ASP is a bit low.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 18, 2012 13:51:48 GMT -8
I agree. Increasing to 365.
iPad regular size ASP is uncertain. I'm counting on many people going for iPad 2 and discounts to retailers.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2012 13:57:45 GMT -8
In the other thread on Walmart, I tend to believe these are loss-leaders / promotions. Get people into the store to buy other things. Still, it does speak to the fact that supplies are fairly ample. In the early days of iPhone and iPad, there was zero discounting. I agree that this is a loss - leader to get people in store during the Xmas shopping season, seeing as the discount is only available in store (not available online). Also, don't these stores also receive a commission from the carriers when they sign up people to a new 2 year contract? (So maybe they are still making a decent amount from the sale). Walmart will have done its homework, and I'm thinking they know that people buying an iPhone 5 have a much higher average spend per visit in store than the average Walmart shopper.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 18, 2012 19:29:55 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 25, 2012 7:37:00 GMT -8
Apple store online refurbished section is out of iMacs, iPod Nanos, iPod Classics and Apple TV.
32 GB iPod touches are in stock.
iPad 2 wifi 64 GB in stock for $ 499.
I view these in the light of Apple's oversupply, intent of supply and consumer trends.
iPhone 5 is trending upward, I believe, in higher income areas.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 26, 2012 14:16:41 GMT -8
In honor of fiscal cliff, I'm keeping my "official" estimate at $ 14.45, gross margin at 39.6 %
I believe iOS devices will cannibalize Mac laptops. The laptop tables at Retail stores are rarely reported as surrounded by customers. Although Retail employees said iMacs are selling well, there's a hit to ASP. Plus my own pessimism due to possible supply shortages of new iMacs.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 27, 2012 11:27:48 GMT -8
I've re-read the whole thread and will do so again. In a nearby forum, one EPS estimate was around $ 14.00 featuring 48 M iPhones and 22 M iPads.
I came up with a scenario to fit that fairly easily. The result was gross revenue basically tying the abysmal sandbag of Q3. The real problem is the same as always ---> hard news is too scant. I've been watching Gilligan's Island to see what the Professor would do.
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Post by rickag on Dec 27, 2012 14:53:47 GMT -8
Not sure where to post but this sounds very promising. Christmas 2012: 17M iOS and Android device activated, 87% jump in App Store downloadsQuote from the article,"Christmas Day turned out to be a huge boost to the mobile device market, according to two analytics firms, as iOS and Android devices saw over 17 million combined activations while Apple's iOS App Store enjoyed a 70 percent boost in revenue boost as downloads increased 87 percent."
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 27, 2012 15:59:21 GMT -8
iPhones before Dec 25. Tablets pull ahead after. Interesting.
Here's the other key paragraph. Time for spreadsheets.
There's more than one good equation in there to be found.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 27, 2012 16:05:17 GMT -8
Worldwide market share, I don't have in hand. That's the key.
4 M activations per day. 1/4th for iOS ? 1 M per day ? That's way more iPad, iPods and iPhones in my estimate.
Early opinion: this could be a good quarter.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 27, 2012 20:27:11 GMT -8
Is it possible that these firms would be able to acquire total activations data, worldwide? How would they get that information, or are they extrapolating from a specific sample?
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Post by appledoc on Dec 27, 2012 20:40:03 GMT -8
25% is probably a fair estimate. iPhones were 15% back at the end of Q3. That number definitely rose after the 5 was released. Tablets were 50/50 I believe. Add the mini to the equation, and I think 25% iOS is a good guess.
17.4M activations on Xmas day. Probably a huge North American slant there. I'd be willing to bet that at least 50% of those were iOS. That's 8.7M. 1M on the other 30 days of the month equals 38.7M for December.
December baseline activations were probably stronger than October and November. So let's lowball it and say 750k/day. That's 45.75M devices to add to the 38.7M from December.
84.45M iOS devices in Q1.
If you lower it to 20% iOS, that still gives about 70M assuming Christmas stays the same.
I think we blow out. Maybe not 85M devices, but a blowout nonetheless.
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Post by po1nt on Dec 27, 2012 21:04:27 GMT -8
25% is probably a fair estimate. iPhones were 15% back at the end of Q3. That number definitely rose after the 5 was released. Tablets were 50/50 I believe. Add the mini to the equation, and I think 25% iOS is a good guess. 17.4M activations on Xmas day. Probably a huge North American slant there. I'd be willing to bet that at least 50% of those were iOS. That's 8.7M. 1M on the other 30 days of the month equals 38.7M for December. December baseline activations were probably stronger than October and November. So let's lowball it and say 750k/day. That's 45.75M devices to add to the 38.7M from December. 84.45M iOS devices in Q1. If you lower it to 20% iOS, that still gives about 70M assuming Christmas stays the same. I think we blow out. Maybe not 85M devices, but a blowout nonetheless. agreed. and thats ONLY iOS products. Not to mention all the non-iOS products ;D
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Dec 28, 2012 4:09:12 GMT -8
84.45M iOS devices in Q1. If you lower it to 20% iOS, that still gives about 70M assuming Christmas stays the same. I think we blow out. Maybe not 85M devices, but a blowout nonetheless. Roughly speaking... 10m iPod Touch 45m iPhone 25m iPad = 80m. I'd say that is minimum, less than that and - Houston, we have a problem.
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Post by rickag on Dec 28, 2012 4:45:09 GMT -8
I bet Flurry knows. Wonder how much they would charge for the information and whether this information makes it to the brokerage houses.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 28, 2012 6:44:11 GMT -8
again, i was thinking about this more on my drive to work. if Flurry knew the exact amount of activations, not only on christmas day, but also all through december, then wouldn't they have the tools to know the exact amount of activations on any given day/month/quarter? Wouldn't this be a HUGE key to any analyst figuring out the #s before they are released?
I'd have to bet they are able to break down their data to iOS vs Android, and then break down what iOS device they polled their data from. So if that data exists, which I feel like it must, wouldn't every analyst and their mother be clawing at it? Also if something this powerful existed, wouldn't that remove 95% of the uncertainty on what would be coming out on earnings releases?
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Post by PikesPique on Dec 28, 2012 6:50:41 GMT -8
What, exactly, is meant by "activations?" I suspect that means activations of data plans with cellular carriers. If so, this data leaves out the wi-fi only versions of devices, such as iPod Touches and most iPads sold.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 28, 2012 6:59:36 GMT -8
What, exactly, is meant by "activations?" I suspect that means activations of data plans with cellular carriers. If so, this data leaves out the wi-fi only versions of devices, such as iPod Touches and most iPads sold. I'm pretty sure it means when you turn your device on and go through the setup process. It doesn't have to be through a wireless carrier.
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Post by lobo on Dec 28, 2012 7:32:23 GMT -8
I saw this article yesterday that was putting a FUD like spin on the Christmas activation story. It came from BGR via Yahoo:
iOS apps see Christmas sales spike shrink in 2012
3:40 PM Distimo just released its statistics on Christmas Day app downloads and revenue growth… and the download spike is far smaller than it was last year. Back in 2011, Christmas Day iOS app download volume spiked 230% above the December average. This year, the increase was just 87% — far below industry expectations. The revenue spike came in at 70%. Interestingly, iPad downloads increased by 140% this Christmas, implying that the iPhone download bounce was really modest. A few weeks ago, AppAnnie released statistics showing that iOS app revenue growth had stalled over the summer of 2012, whereas Android app revenue growth was relatively strong at 48% over a five month period. Both Distimo and Appannie are respected companies and their analytics are closely followed by app industry professionals. Could it be that the pace of iPhone app revenue growth has slowed down sharply from 2011 levels, even if Distimo and AppAnnie numbers aren’t entirely accurate?
I don't know how reliable BGR is, but I thought I would throw it out there as an example of how different folks are interpreting the Christmas activation story.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 28, 2012 7:59:58 GMT -8
84.45M iOS devices in Q1. If you lower it to 20% iOS, that still gives about 70M assuming Christmas stays the same. I think we blow out. Maybe not 85M devices, but a blowout nonetheless. Roughly speaking... 10m iPod Touch 45m iPhone 25m iPad = 80m. I'd say that is minimum, less than that and - Houston, we have a problem. My ratios would be 8.5, 22 and 49 for iPod, iPad and iPhone. I agree 80 is a meh number. 85 is more friendly.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 28, 2012 8:38:50 GMT -8
15.4M iPods were sold in 1Q12. "More than half" were iPod touches. So maybe 8M? iPod sales had a YoY decline of about 20% in 1Q12. So we're probably talking about 6.5-7M iPod Touch this year. Possibly even less given that screen supply should have been diverted to fulfilling iPhone 5 orders.
55.5M iPhone 22.5M iPad 6.5M iPod Touch ---------- 85M iOS devices
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 28, 2012 8:48:27 GMT -8
Thanks for the clarification, doc. My own smoothing is 54.6, 24.6 and 5.8
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Post by Mav on Dec 28, 2012 9:56:34 GMT -8
Nice conversation goin' on here. My "gut" tells me 50M iPhones is much more minimum goal than aspirational goal, but all the same, I may not seriously visit that level until finalizing my home game numbers for fiscal Q1 in the next week or two. How are you all arriving at those >50M numbers?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 28, 2012 10:05:15 GMT -8
For my own estimate of 51 M 1. Oppy sandbag analysis 2. Splitting the difference on what it means for a launch quarter and a followup quarter. ATT portion in a launch quarter is higher than a followup.
To get the above numbers as related to 54.6 M etc, I assumed that Flurry's iOS numbers total at 85 M and I split out from there.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 28, 2012 11:05:09 GMT -8
How are you all arriving at those >50M numbers? I took my calculated 85M iOS devices from Flurry's numbers, subtracted the 6.5M iPod Touches that I estimated, pinned the iPad for about 50% growth YoY at 22.5M (would have been higher if not for assumed mini supply constraint) and came out with 55.5M iPhones. I'll do a more serious calculation as we approach the earnings release.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 28, 2012 14:38:45 GMT -8
Doc, you really are diving right into all aspects, good for you. I for one do not believe the mini display shortages. I think Apple is sourcing from 3 suppliers for the screen. I doubt Digitimes can be right with all three. Heck, when has Digitimes ever been right. I think the numbers that are being discussed eliminte anything over $15 EPS. (which BTW, I thought was crazy talk because of the lower GM's) EW, earnings modeling, TA............ what is next? This will help you so much going forward. You have caught on very fast. Good job.
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