Post by Ted on Jul 23, 2016 7:16:17 GMT -8
Well, this seemed a good way to open the weekend thread - with a very positive post from an old friend of this board, Gregg Thurman. I see his posts on the Mac360 site sometimes. He certainly hasn't lost any faith in the company. Skeptics, feel free to go to town on this one . . .
"Gregg_Thurman • 7 hours ago
WS's insistence for new features/design to drive YoY sales growth is grossly misplaced.
Smart phone buyers do not upgrade on a yearly basis. They upgrade on a 24 to 27 month cycle. By definition iPhone users owning an iPhone more than 27 months old are not upgraders to new models, instead are primarily purchasers of used models, and will "upgrade" to a newer , albeit pre-owned, model.
If you average the Yo2Y growth rate for the prior 3 December quarters, then adjust that average downward by 2 Standard Deviations and 8% FX headwinds you arrive at an effective Yo2Y growth rate of ~25%.
Applying a 25% Yo2Y growth rate to FQ1/14 results you get 93.5 Million iPhones sold during FQ1/2017. The delta between purported iPhone7 order and that number are sales of iPhone 6/Plus, iPhone 6S/Plus (sold at discount) and iPhone SEs. Historically this latter group accounts for about 20% of total iPhone sales during any given quarter. Deducting 20% from the calculated 93.5 Million total iPhone sales for FQ1/2017 yields 74.8 Million iPhone 7/Plus sales, right in the middle of the purported iPhone 7 order of 72 Million to 78 Million units.
I believe that 93.5 Million iPhones sold during FQ1/2017 may prove to be conservative. depending on the sales performance of the, until recently, supply constrained iPhone SE. I'm modeling an ASP of $635."
How bout them Apples?!
"Gregg_Thurman • 7 hours ago
WS's insistence for new features/design to drive YoY sales growth is grossly misplaced.
Smart phone buyers do not upgrade on a yearly basis. They upgrade on a 24 to 27 month cycle. By definition iPhone users owning an iPhone more than 27 months old are not upgraders to new models, instead are primarily purchasers of used models, and will "upgrade" to a newer , albeit pre-owned, model.
If you average the Yo2Y growth rate for the prior 3 December quarters, then adjust that average downward by 2 Standard Deviations and 8% FX headwinds you arrive at an effective Yo2Y growth rate of ~25%.
Applying a 25% Yo2Y growth rate to FQ1/14 results you get 93.5 Million iPhones sold during FQ1/2017. The delta between purported iPhone7 order and that number are sales of iPhone 6/Plus, iPhone 6S/Plus (sold at discount) and iPhone SEs. Historically this latter group accounts for about 20% of total iPhone sales during any given quarter. Deducting 20% from the calculated 93.5 Million total iPhone sales for FQ1/2017 yields 74.8 Million iPhone 7/Plus sales, right in the middle of the purported iPhone 7 order of 72 Million to 78 Million units.
I believe that 93.5 Million iPhones sold during FQ1/2017 may prove to be conservative. depending on the sales performance of the, until recently, supply constrained iPhone SE. I'm modeling an ASP of $635."
How bout them Apples?!