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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 5, 2012 4:44:48 GMT -8
My latest WAG... AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 5, 2012 6:18:11 GMT -8
Sorry iPad, but without something no non-EW person can really follow along...
What this forum needs is a second person who can speak EW like Mace
hah used strikethrough so it doesn't count
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 5, 2012 6:31:59 GMT -8
Sorry iPad, but without something no non-EW person can really follow along... What this forum needs is a second person who can speak EW like Mace hah used strikethrough so it doesn't countDisagree with Mav, lovey. keep it coming. Of course, next time will you please tell me when the 3rd wave has ended sooner. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 5, 2012 7:46:04 GMT -8
Huh?
Needs explanations, is all I said.
And of course it'll help to have more EW people in the house to drive this topic.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 5, 2012 9:09:56 GMT -8
My friend Roy from Avi's group signed up for our board a while back...not even because of me...pure coincidence...he didn't even know I was here! But he hasn't had time to poke around here yet. Trust me, Roy is the closest I've found to Mace-like EW...in every way!
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 8, 2012 17:42:46 GMT -8
Ha! I just came across this chart that I made after JUL'12 earnings. I was a wee bit off with the *order* of my WAG projections... AAPL DAILY CHART: P.S. Damn dividends are messing with my numbers!!! The charting packages are inconsistent -- some adjust, while others don't!!! Stockcharts.com (my charts with white backgrounds) do adjust. All my others do NOT.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 17:55:52 GMT -8
Pretty much says 522 is coming whether we like it or not.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 18:02:24 GMT -8
So...522 being more like 516ish adjusting for the dividends? Blah.
Have the machines or the market bears or everyone else accounted for the dividends?
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 8, 2012 18:09:23 GMT -8
So...522 being more like 516ish adjusting for the dividends? Blah. Have the machines or the market bears or everyone else accounted for the dividends? yes Mav, it would be 516. If it goes below that, there is always JD's chicken entrails.
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Post by lobo on Nov 10, 2012 13:57:41 GMT -8
I've been trying to wrap my head around Elliott Wave analysis for the last couple of days. I realize it's something that you just don't pick up and run with and that experience and interpretation play a big role. I have (2) questions: 1) Can anyone recommend a site that I can go to that will provide me with some of the basics of Elliott Wave analysis? (Almost a primer of sorts.) 2) After having read some of the general theory it reminds some of the theory of "psychohistory" that Asimov wrote about in his Foundation series of books. Not exactly the same of course, but it seemed oddly similar. If I remember correctly Asimov was writing his first series of short strories for the initial Foundation book during the early 1940's. My understanding is that Elliott published his theories in the late 1930's into the mid 1940's. I was just wondering if anyone has ever heard that Elliott's writngs may have influenced Asimov or not? (I know this is kind of out in left field some, but I was just curious.) Thanks
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 10, 2012 14:13:03 GMT -8
Current favored WAG at EW count... AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 10, 2012 14:22:43 GMT -8
I've been trying to wrap my head around Elliott Wave analysis for the last couple of days. I realize it's something that you just don't pick up and run with and that experience and interpretation play a big role. I have (2) questions: 1) Can anyone recommend a site that I can go to that will provide me with some of the basics of Elliott Wave analysis? (Almost a primer of sorts.) 2) After having read some of the general theory it reminds some of the theory of "psychohistory" that Asimov wrote about in his Foundation series of books. Not exactly the same of course, but it seemed oddly similar. If I remember correctly Asimov was writing his first series of short strories for the initial Foundation book during the early 1940's. My understanding is that Elliott published his theories in the late 1930's into the mid 1940's. I was just wondering if anyone has ever heard that Elliott's writngs may have influenced Asimov or not? (I know this is kind of out in left field some, but I was just curious.) Thanks Lobo, very cool that you are even ATTEMPTING to understand EW!! It can definitely give you a headache, but when puzzle pieces start to fall into place, it's great fun!! When I was first learning, Mace from AFB1 sent me to this site where you can download some free "trading with EW" kind of material: Elliott Wave InternationalAlso, Corey Rosenbloom, another favorite TA pro, has some nice EW Cheat Sheets. EW is all about quantifying crowd behavior and sentiment. To me, it's like trying to figure out the Riddle of the Sphynx. Very interesting re: Asimov...I haven't heard that before, but it sure sounds possible!
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 16:43:13 GMT -8
I had been thinking there was a rule 4 that was very important. here it is. blog.afraidtotrade.com/the-three-hard-rules-of-elliott-wave-theory/if you read down to the bottom it tells you that the max wave 4 should go is 50%, anything more and something is very wrong. It is also called the profit taking wave. Again Lovey, we have to be more on top of the wave counts my EW Queen.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 17:03:28 GMT -8
How convenient.
AAPL holds this line more or less (div adjustment) or AAPL might have some rough weeks ahead of it.
Market inflection point, SMA-50 weekly inflection point, EW inflection point? We'd best prepare...though looking back, AAPL always seemed to get hit worse than the broader markets during these tough times. Harder to imagine than ever given that Apple is now a 100% legit blue chip of a stock, but it's still associated with high-beta tech and is it ever acting that way right now.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 17:41:32 GMT -8
Current favored WAG at EW count... AAPL DAILY CHART: Lovey, question about the wave count. It makes no sense to me that wave three ends at 644. If wave 4 is a corrective wave, why would it not start at 705?
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 10, 2012 21:06:41 GMT -8
Mark, you might like this one better (I do). This is my most recent potential count (first chart in this thread), but Avi hasn't given it the thumbs-up yet.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 21:13:36 GMT -8
Mark, you might like this one better (I do). This is my most recent potential count (first chart in this thread), but Avi hasn't given it the thumbs-up yet. Please do not adjust your count just because the other one did not make sense to me. You are the queen and I am but a pauper. The bad part is that wave IV would not be complete under this scenario.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 21:15:49 GMT -8
Just to make you mad at me, your chart is not reflective of div adjustments.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 10, 2012 21:27:04 GMT -8
Just to make you mad at me, your chart is not reflective of div adjustments. My only chart platform that adjusts for dividends is StockCharts, the charts with the white background. None of the others do. It's quite irritating not to have consistency, and I'm not quite sure yet how it's going to mess up the technicals.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 10, 2012 21:37:09 GMT -8
Please do not adjust your count just because the other one did not make sense to me. You are the queen and I am but a pauper. The bad part is that wave IV would not be complete under this scenario. LOL! And nono, I didn't adjust for you... That count occurred to me when Mav first noted that we had (at that point) retraced 38.2% of the move from 363 to 705. Wave 4 *most commonly* retraces 38.2% of Wave 3 (so we could be done ANYTIME now), and the numbers would have been lovely if we had stopped there. But that's what got me thinking (again) about the downwave from 705 as part of a bigger corrective move. The stumper for most is that 363 to 644 is very characteristic of a "Wave 3," and the move from 644 to 522-ish is very characteristic of a "Wave 4." But the internals of this move from 522 to 705 have been quite the b*tch to identify as a Wave 5...it's not cleanly impulsive (5 non-overlapping waves), and it's "easier" to count the subwaves as corrective (3 waves). So then, maybe 644 to 522-ish was only A-down of the ABC corrective Wave IV, and maybe 522-ish to 705 is the B-up, and now we're in the C-down from 705? You can have a B-up that's higher than the origin of A...this happens quite often on smaller timeframes with AAPL. Thus, that count that confused you. But all of this is less relevant to us right now... More relevant... We need to see 5 clear impulsive waves up off that 533 low, followed by 3 corrective waves retracing no lower than 533. I *think* we have the 5-up if I've counted correctly. Now, it's up to the 3-down (harder to count) to stay above 533, or the count starts over. If we can get that, we've got our bottom. I would like to see something like this: AAPL 5-MIN CHART: Above chart is a zoomed view of below chart... AAPL 30-MIN CHART:
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 22:08:28 GMT -8
What do your other EW brethren think? Could 705 have been a wave 5 completion and this is a reset to start a wave 1?
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 10, 2012 22:21:13 GMT -8
What do your other EW brethren think? Could 705 have been a wave 5 completion and this is a reset to start a wave 1? At this point, there are about three categories of scenarios with variations: 1) This is a Wave 4-down, and Wave 5-up is coming (bullish); 2) This is a Wave 2-down, and Wave 3-up is coming (immediate-term bearish, then uber-bullish); 3) This is A-down of a big ABC correction following Waves I through V that topped at 705, and B-up is coming (bearish to uber-bearish) All three of these would have an upwave to *at least* 650-ish following this downwave.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 22:34:56 GMT -8
I vote for number 2. The 650 number is the max I think we could get back to in Jan. My .02c I think the reason Gregg had placed the Jan 13 655/675 spread is because it falls around a 15 p/e. I don't think there is enough time. Especially if you think we have to retrace back to 533.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 23:54:46 GMT -8
Does EW care about the SMA-50 weekly? Or, could some variations of it take it into account?
Assuming that it does, then a failure of the SMA-50 weekly (which has never proven short-term good for AAPL since as far back as June 2006) means scenario 2 or 3.
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Post by lobo on Nov 11, 2012 7:06:34 GMT -8
Just a generic question for the EW folks in the know... In my readings about EW I keep coming across the mention of Triangles forming once a trend has topped out or bottomed out. (Basically signaling a reversal.) If 705 was the top and the end of Wave 5, is there a corresponding triangle that formed that indicates the reversal? I'm new at this, so if this is an obvious misunderstanding on my part please let me know. Thanks
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Post by alice on Nov 11, 2012 10:50:19 GMT -8
What do your other EW brethren think? Could 705 have been a wave 5 completion and this is a reset to start a wave 1? At this point, there are about three categories of scenarios with variations: 1) This is a Wave 4-down, and Wave 5-up is coming (bullish); 2) This is a Wave 2-down, and Wave 3-up is coming (immediate-term bearish, then uber-bullish); 3) This is A-down of a big ABC correction following Waves I through V that topped at 705, and B-up is coming (bearish to uber-bearish) All three of these would have an upwave to *at least* 650-ish following this downwave. Are there bearish cases to consider too? Is EW saying the low is low 500 or does EW see sub 500? Thanks iPad!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 11, 2012 11:21:17 GMT -8
See the third category.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 11, 2012 13:15:31 GMT -8
Even if it is 3, it would mean that there would be a move up once A is complete. Number 3 would also mean Apple is going to go into a negative earnings spiral. I am not buying into that.
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Post by alice on Nov 11, 2012 14:06:54 GMT -8
I misread bearish for bullish. My mistake.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 11, 2012 14:13:33 GMT -8
Even if it is 3, it would mean that there would be a move up once A is complete. Number 3 would also mean Apple is going to go into a negative earnings spiral. I am not buying into that. There's a scary confluence between this third category iPad talked about and the SMA-50 weekly. So I really have to pay attention. I just wish I knew what to look for besides the obvious "we have to get over the SMA-50 weekly by Friday". But that's what Monday is for.
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