chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Aug 27, 2016 8:06:24 GMT -8
After three strong weeks AAPL dipped to the 107 that our local chartists have been predicting. Now, let's all hope for the bounce that some have been predicting will follow.
Call me an eternal optimist, but I just have a feeling that Apple may unveil a few surprises in the Fall run-up to the holiday season. New watches seem likely, particularly after the big changes that were unveiled in Watch OS 2. Everybody seems to feel that the Mac lineup is long past due for an upgrade.
Meanwhile here in New England we are squeezing every last drop out of our summer activities knowing that the dark days of winter loom in our future.
Cheers to the longs!
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Post by tuffett on Aug 27, 2016 11:47:16 GMT -8
I'm holding onto my shares but loading up on some protective puts for the short term for several reasons:
- iPhone 6/6+ "touch disease" is starting to grow legs. This seems tied to the fact (but not exclusively so) that these phones are prone to bending. Best case is that Apple quietly handles repairs in store and the issue goes away. Worst case is the problem is so widespread that Apple is forced to institute some kind of recall program. Not a minor thing for a device that sold hundreds of millions of units. It's too early to say either way. Some people have said it's not a matter of if, but when, that this problem manifests. I hope that is not true. Thankfully the 6s/6s+ seems unaffected thus far, but perhaps Apple should reconsider its obsession with thinness. Apple has always been design led, but it seems like we might have reached a point where design is trumping engineering to unhealthy limits. And frankly, the iPhone 6 design isn't even that good. I much prefer the 4 and 5 series with flush cameras.
- Irish tax decision could come as early as next week, and could be up to $18B. I really have no idea as to the likelihood or the amount, but I need to protect myself if the outcome is negative. Of course Apple will appeal and actual payment, if any, could be years away, but the impact on the stock will be immediate.
- iPhone event is just a couple of weeks away. We've already had a big run so I see limited upside going into the event, and if we get what we are all expecting with no surprises it will likely be the usual "sell the news."
- The market as a whole seems to be on edge (but I guess it has been for a while now). It's going to be hard to keep making new highs.
I see a strong holiday quarter given the 14 weeks, the new Apple Watch, and the massive install base ready to upgrade. The only question is how many people will hold back because of the lack of headphone jack. Very hard to gauge how much of the actual population cares, but anecdotally the reaction on the internet is about 90% negative, so I'm uneasy.
Premiums are low and protection is cheap right now. Easy decision for me, and I hope they don't pay out.
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Post by rickag on Aug 27, 2016 13:01:40 GMT -8
Went to the National Museum in Athens and the Temple to Posiedon. Life is good.
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Post by rickag on Aug 27, 2016 13:14:40 GMT -8
For those like me that don't know the story: the king 's son went to Crete and slew the Minotaur. If he failed and was killed the ship would return under a black sail or white sail if successful. Damn, he forgot & the sail was black, before the ship landed the king jumped off the cliffs at the Temple to Posiedon committing suicide. The king's name was Aegeus so the Argean Sea is named after him.
Riddle me this, did the son who became the king really forget?
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Post by mace on Aug 27, 2016 14:08:26 GMT -8
...The only question is how many people will hold back because of the lack of headphone jack... Apple might play it safe to have: iPhone 7 with headphone jack iPhone 7+ without headphone jack
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Post by mace on Aug 27, 2016 14:15:16 GMT -8
... Riddle me this, did the son who became the king really forget? Obvious. During South Song dynasty, there is a great Chinese general, Yue Fei, who was very successful in stoping the Jurchen from invading China. He wanted to save the previous emperors imprisoned by Jurchen. He was sentenced to death by the incumbent emperor when Jurchen threatens to send the imprisoned emperor back.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 27, 2016 15:11:31 GMT -8
...The only question is how many people will hold back because of the lack of headphone jack... Apple might play it safe to have: iPhone 7 with headphone jack iPhone 7S without headphone jack Doubt it. Would lead a whole lot of confusion. Apple should be 100% confident in the move if they're going to do it.
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Post by gtrplyr on Aug 27, 2016 19:07:24 GMT -8
Apple has a history of being on the cutting edge and removing old technologies .... floppy drive .... CD/DVD Drive ..... I'm sure there are several more. Everyone bitches but in the end new tech takes over. I recently got a free pair of wireless Beats when my daughter got a macbook .... I LOVE them. They sound good but more importantly removing that stupid cable has been fantastic when working out ... or even walking around the house while I'm doing the dishes or cleaning up. Once people use the wireless technology they will not want to go back to using a cable. I agree with Tuffett ... either no jack or keep it , they will not confuse people with two different versions. How about free wireless beats (earbud versions) when buying a phone ? Not a bad incentive and Apple gets a pretty good deal on them Cheers to the longs ....
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Post by hledgard on Aug 28, 2016 6:07:20 GMT -8
I use the wireless headphones all the time. But I can say for sure, the sound is better with a wire. There needs to be a new bluetooth with higher quality.
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Post by rezonate on Aug 28, 2016 7:24:27 GMT -8
My experience with bluetooth audio is absolutely awful. A non-starter. No way will I spring for all new listening gear. A lightning-to-1/8" adapter could work. If Apple comes out with a bluetooth puck that can connect my arsenal of existing wired headphones I'll probably bite, just to maintain my fanboi cred. But it better be good.
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Post by firestorm on Aug 28, 2016 7:47:09 GMT -8
My experience with bluetooth audio is absolutely awful. A non-starter. No way will I spring for all new listening gear. A lightning-to-1/8" adapter could work. If Apple comes out with a bluetooth puck that can connect my arsenal of existing wired headphones I'll probably bite, just to maintain my fanboi cred. But it better be good. All the rumors I've heard say that there will be an adapter, so I'm not sure why there is such a strong negative reaction to Apple's apparent plans.
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Post by tuffett on Aug 28, 2016 9:59:33 GMT -8
My experience with bluetooth audio is absolutely awful. A non-starter. No way will I spring for all new listening gear. A lightning-to-1/8" adapter could work. If Apple comes out with a bluetooth puck that can connect my arsenal of existing wired headphones I'll probably bite, just to maintain my fanboi cred. But it better be good. All the rumors I've heard say that there will be an adapter, so I'm not sure why there is such a strong negative reaction to Apple's apparent plans. People don't like adaptors. They are inconvenient and easy to lose. Imagine switching your earbuds from iPhone to Mac - you'd have to take the adaptor off for the Mac and put it somewhere. Where do you put it? That small thing will eventually get lost. Maybe it seems minor but it is the exact opposite of the famous Apple easy, simple user experience. Also, unless Apple unveils wireless charging, it will be impossible to listen to music with the adaptor and charge the iPhone at the same time - something I see people at my work doing all the time (I do it myself too on occasion). Wireless is the future but I just don't think it's ready yet. I have a pair for the gym and it works well enough but I wouldn't use it outside the gym. Too many random pairing issues and worrying about battery drain. Though I don't really notice much difference, I think it is clear that Bluetooth audio quality is inferior as well. Maybe Apple pulls a rabbit out of the hat and includes Bluetooth 5 earbuds - that would take a lot of the sting out of it. All in all, a lot of negatives and really no positives, except perhaps a more waterproof device. This is all about pushing the industry to change to Bluetooth going forward. I still feel this would have been better suited for next year's overhauled iPhone - it seems like this is the type of change you make when everything else changes as well. I'll personally be staying with my iPhone 6 another year (the first time I'm deviating from my 2 year replacement cycle) and the removal of the headphone jack is a big reason why. The other reason being the 6 is a perfectly competent device giving me no problems thus far (fingers crossed).
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Post by mace on Aug 28, 2016 11:08:09 GMT -8
Apple might play it safe to have: iPhone 7 with headphone jack iPhone 7+ without headphone jack Doubt it. Would lead a whole lot of confusion. Apple should be 100% confident in the move if they're going to do it. Huh?
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Post by rezonate on Aug 28, 2016 12:00:22 GMT -8
The upper right corner of my iPhone 6 screen (viewed portrait) looks like it is starting to peel away from the glass. Like a book page that's curling down and away. The peel was minor a couple weeks ago, but it is unmistakable now. All else is fine with the phone, as it has never been bent or subjected to moisture. So if the latest iPhoneGate gets fixed, perhaps the PeelGate will be next. I wanted to hold off this year too, but if this gets worse I'll be jumping to the 7 pretty quickly.
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Post by firestorm on Aug 28, 2016 12:42:56 GMT -8
According to Macrumors, the new Apple Watch 42mm version will have 35% more battery capacity. That's a good development.
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