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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 0:48:41 GMT -8
AZ gets some right, this he has gotten wrong. Yep, just lately it's been more wrong than right, which isn't good for the longs For those that pay him $1800/year it's been terrible.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 1:02:23 GMT -8
AAPL's facing a bit of a test right now. The immediate points of reference? 580, 577ish, 574-75, 560-570. It's day to day, but sideways sure beats another move down. AAPL isn't facing anything, its just responding to what those with the ability to move markets are doing. If the institutions are buying AAPL goes up. If the institutions are selling AAPL goes down. It isn't any more complicated that that. There's no need to estimate EPS, units sold, supplier reliability, whatever. I've been deluding myself for quite a long time. In the early days (for me) my trading was quite successfully. I deluded myself into believing it was my forecasting. It was just a coincidence. AAPL goes up because the market movers (institutions) are buying. AAPL goes down because the market movers selling. There's no need to/understand EPS, guidance, GM %, market share, etc., just do what the institutions are doing, when they are doing it. While you are investing hundreds, maybe thousands, the institutions are investing millions, maybe billions. They move markets, you can only follow. So I'm going to follow.
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 7, 2012 1:33:01 GMT -8
I believe the market sets the value of a company based on discounted future net earnings plus existing assets. Sure, Facebook is not making much money now, but the market believes they have the ability to make a ton of money in the future. The same argument can be made for Amazon. My frustration is there is ample evidence of AAPLs future growth over the next year at least. If I read/listen Tia Conf call from AMZN, FB or Goog (specifically Android growth) there is zero empirical evidence and future claims will happen and actually empirical evidence to prove even if they can sell anything they can't actually do it at a profit. Have a look at AMZN growth forecast and anyone show me how they are going to get to next years EPS. Show me how Goog is going to actually make profit on Android. And finally show me how FB is going to make more and more top line and bottom line with Mobile than desktop when desktop is declining and it's a hard well known fact advertisers pay less for mobile. This is why I am frustrated and put it that the claims Wall St cares about future earnings using any level of diligence on numbers does not support the facts. Hi fas550. I hear what you are saying. However, I think your time horizon is way too short. Both Amazon and Facebook are building companies that will produce significant revenue streams in a few years, and will increase dramatically for the next five to 20+ years. I don't know if they will be successful, but the market consensus is that they will. Google is a different story. Their PE of 21.4 is only slightly higher than the NASDAQ average of 20.1 The Google search business can fund many different experiments, like Android, that don't need to produce significant revenues right now. They are building Android for future profits. As for Apple, their PE of 13 reflects a belief in the market that Apple's revenue growth will slow, or even decline, in the future. It's not a conspiracy. On December 31, 2007 Apple had a PE of 43.53. Why? Because the iPhone was six months old and the Evil Overlords, Big Guys, and smart investors knew future revenue was going to increase dramatically.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 7, 2012 2:34:57 GMT -8
well so much for Andy Zaky's prediction last week that Apple will go back to $600 by Tuesday... Have to confess, I had thought we would be back over 600 by now, but I didn't truly appreciate how little the HFT machines care about impending elections or dividends and just keep on running through their pre-programmed patterns.
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