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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 17, 2016 5:49:05 GMT -8
Ok ... Don't really have much to say but I wanted to start the thread just so I could stare at the +11.79 for a while !!!!!!! CHEERS to the longs.
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 17, 2016 6:50:02 GMT -8
And now, the rest of the story. Turns out we're excited about the iPhone 7 for no good reason. Long time AAPL bull bear, Bert Dohmen, has weighed in with the REAL reason some iPhone 7's are unavailable. Doh!! Note: For those not familiar with Dohmen's previous rantings about Apple, search "Bert Dolmen Apple". My personal favorite is, "You'd have to be 'deaf, dumb and blind' to buy Apple, investor says, on CNBC. Shocker, right? Aug 15, 2016 - Apple stock is up more than 10 percent in the last month, but contrarian investor Bert Dohmen said he wouldn't touch it with a 10-foot pole.On CNBC last month, Aug 15, 2016. But a runner-up might be, The Demise Of Apple" written on April 27, 2016. => Apple reported the first sales decline in 13 years. But the Apple bulls are out in force. I say, “The bad news for Apple is just starting.”I found this story very interesting because Dohmen went on to list his anti-Apple stories/interviews over the last few years: Articles on Forbes.comAugust 5, 2015 - Why Apple Investors Should WorryDec. 17, 2015 - Why Apple Will Enter A Bear Market in 2016 Interviews on CNBCApril 23, 2013 - Apple Is Like Sony 20 Years AgoJanuary 28,2014 - This Is How Bad It Could Get for Apple StockNovember 14, 2014 - Apple Becoming A One-Trick PonyMar 23, 2015 - Skeptical Of Hype Surrounding AppleI list these stories because I'm fascinated that one so-called analyst could be SO negative over so many years about a company and a stock with which many folks have made a great deal of money over those same years. Who listens to this guy? I mean besides folks who watch CNBC for guidance on stocks. ================== Why Is There A Shortage Of iPhone 7? by Bert Dohmen.
When Apple management announced that the iPhone 7 was sold out, the stock soared about 14%. That’s an increase in market value of more than $80 billion. I call that a windfall from a shortfall.
I was skeptical. I consider the reception of iPhone 7 lukewarm, certainly not enough for demand to soar above expectations.
However, there probably is a real shortage at the moment. But instead of being caused by big demand, couldn’t it be due to a lack of supply?
I ask, what would cause a lack of supply? Certainly, Apple made sure that sufficient phones were ordered from the manufacturers. So I considered our recent stories on the bankruptcy of one of the world’s largest container shippers, Hajin Shipping (a Korean company). Dozens of their ships have been stranded around the world, many on the high seas, because going to port might have caused them to be seized for lack of payment for fuel, supplies, tug ships, etc.
It’s estimated that these ships are carrying about $14 billion of supplies, including electronic items. One large ship, the Greece, was stranded off of California for a week. It’s a giant 1,145 ft. container carrier. It just started unloading recently at the port of Long Beach.
I ask, isn’t it possible that the surprising announcement that Apple ran out of iPhones to sell is due to delayed deliveries because of the Hajin bankruptcy?
Obviously, Apple management would know. But no one seems to have asked. Given their past announcement, they once again found a way to make lemonade out of the lemons. Letting consumers and investors think there was a huge demand, resulting in being “sold out,” really paid off…so far.
I remember the CEO of Apple last year talking about record sales in China. They probably were because so few iPhones were sold in prior years due to negotiations with the mobile phone carriers. This year we heard that iPhone sales in China crashed by more than 30%.
The motto is always: “Buyer beware!” [tweet_quote display=”Never jump to conclusions when top management makes an announcement.”]Never jump to conclusions when top management makes an announcement.[/tweet_quote] When the CEO of a company is on television, I usually hit the “mute” button. These people are the designated ‘public relations’ guys. On the other hand, if a CFO is on, it’s much more useful.
TWEET THIS Never jump to conclusions when top management makes an announcement.
Apple observers found it strange when Apple announced that it won’t be revealing the first weekend sales figures for the iPhone 7. This will be the first time Apple won’t unveil that important number. If they were expected to be great, you can bet they would have decided to release them. Apple said: “These initial sales will be governed by supply, not demand, and we have decided that it is no longer a representative metric for our investors and customers.”
An excellent analyst I know, who has been bearish on Apple for a while, noted that “Carriers are offering steep promotions and trade-in value, promotions that have not happened in the past. Verizon said pre-orders were at a similar level to previous years. Orange SA, France’s biggest carrier, said orders were slightly higher than last year, but that it didn’t have a supply shortage.”
There you have it. Investors are not entitled to know because Apple says so.
Today, the iPhone 7 became available in the stores. Many buyers had no trouble buying one, even without long lines, without a “pre-reservation,” and with the hype this week that it was “sold out.” How is that possible?
The bottom line for investors is: BE CAREFUL. I would be careful about buying a stock with declining sales. Here is the chart of iPhone sales growth since December 2012: Conclusion: I don’t see any excitement about the new iPhone. Even long-time iPhone users said on TV they feel no need to get the new phone just because you can drop it in the toilet since it is “water resistant.” The camera is improved, but still far inferior to the camera on the new Samsung Galaxy (of course Samsung is having it’s own cellphone issues right now).
I strongly recommend not to follow the knee-jerk reaction and the crowd. The winners are always in the minority.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Sept 17, 2016 7:01:46 GMT -8
According to my hasty research, this was the largest weekly gain since the stock split; now multiply by 7 for a real jaw dropper.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 17, 2016 7:25:18 GMT -8
And now, the rest of the story. Turns out we're excited about the iPhone 7 for no good reason. Long time AAPL bull, Bert Dohmen, has weighed in with the REAL reason some iPhone 7's are unavailable. Doh!! Note: For those not familiar with Dohmen's previous rantings about Apple, search "Bert Dolmen Apple". My personal favorite is, "You'd have to be 'deaf, dumb and blind' to buy Apple, investor says, on CNBC. Aug 15, 2016 - Apple stock is up more than 10 percent in the last month, but contrarian investor Bert Dohmen said he wouldn't touch it with a 10-foot pole. Why Is There A Shortage Of iPhone 7? by Bert Dohmen.
When Apple management announced that the iPhone 7 was sold out, the stock soared about 14%. That’s an increase in market value of more than $80 billion. I call that a windfall from a shortfall.
I was skeptical. I consider the reception of iPhone 7 lukewarm, certainly not enough for demand to soar above expectations.
However, there probably is a real shortage at the moment. But instead of being caused by big demand, couldn’t it be due to a lack of supply?
I ask, what would cause a lack of supply? Certainly, Apple made sure that sufficient phones were ordered from the manufacturers. So I considered our recent stories on the bankruptcy of one of the world’s largest container shippers, Hajin Shipping (a Korean company). Dozens of their ships have been stranded around the world, many on the high seas, because going to port might have caused them to be seized for lack of payment for fuel, supplies, tug ships, etc.
It’s estimated that these ships are carrying about $14 billion of supplies, including electronic items. One large ship, the Greece, was stranded off of California for a week. It’s a giant 1,145 ft. container carrier. It just started unloading recently at the port of Long Beach.
I ask, isn’t it possible that the surprising announcement that Apple ran out of iPhones to sell is due to delayed deliveries because of the Hajin bankruptcy?
Obviously, Apple management would know. But no one seems to have asked. Given their past announcement, they once again found a way to make lemonade out of the lemons. Letting consumers and investors think there was a huge demand, resulting in being “sold out,” really paid off…so far.
I remember the CEO of Apple last year talking about record sales in China. They probably were because so few iPhones were sold in prior years due to negotiations with the mobile phone carriers. This year we heard that iPhone sales in China crashed by more than 30%.
The motto is always: “Buyer beware!” [tweet_quote display=”Never jump to conclusions when top management makes an announcement.”]Never jump to conclusions when top management makes an announcement.[/tweet_quote] When the CEO of a company is on television, I usually hit the “mute” button. These people are the designated ‘public relations’ guys. On the other hand, if a CFO is on, it’s much more useful.
TWEET THIS Never jump to conclusions when top management makes an announcement.
Apple observers found it strange when Apple announced that it won’t be revealing the first weekend sales figures for the iPhone 7. This will be the first time Apple won’t unveil that important number. If they were expected to be great, you can bet they would have decided to release them. Apple said: “These initial sales will be governed by supply, not demand, and we have decided that it is no longer a representative metric for our investors and customers.”
An excellent analyst I know, who has been bearish on Apple for a while, noted that “Carriers are offering steep promotions and trade-in value, promotions that have not happened in the past. Verizon said pre-orders were at a similar level to previous years. Orange SA, France’s biggest carrier, said orders were slightly higher than last year, but that it didn’t have a supply shortage.”
There you have it. Investors are not entitled to know because Apple says so.
Today, the iPhone 7 became available in the stores. Many buyers had no trouble buying one, even without long lines, without a “pre-reservation,” and with the hype this week that it was “sold out.” How is that possible?
The bottom line for investors is: BE CAREFUL. I would be careful about buying a stock with declining sales. Here is the chart of iPhone sales growth since December 2012: Conclusion: I don’t see any excitement about the new iPhone. Even long-time iPhone users said on TV they feel no need to get the new phone just because you can drop it in the toilet since it is “water resistant.” The camera is improved, but still far inferior to the camera on the new Samsung Galaxy (of course Samsung is having it’s own cellphone issues right now).
I strongly recommend not to follow the knee-jerk reaction and the crowd. The winners are always in the minority.
What a brilliant analysis. While well written, I did find one minor flaw www.flexport.com/blog/does-apple-ship-iphones-by-air-or-sea
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Post by BillH on Sept 17, 2016 7:46:36 GMT -8
Dohmen also fails to mention that it was T-Mobile's and Sprints report of extraordinary demand and NOT Apple's sold out 6+ news that started the run. If his lips are moving...,
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Post by sponge on Sept 17, 2016 10:18:13 GMT -8
I am truly enjoying my new iPhone 7. I believe sales of this phone will surprise Many and I think the stock will do very well in the next six months.
Of course in the meantime will have our ups and downs of 7 to 10% corrections. Even when the iPhone 6 came out we had an 11% correction in December.
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Post by sponge on Sept 17, 2016 10:24:40 GMT -8
Maps are much improved. Battery and speed are just amazing.
No pictires yet but will be going on a road trip to WA state and will have a blast using the camera next week.
The iOS 10 helps a great deal. The Apple Music and iMessages are the sleeper hits.
My Apple Watch 1 is much faster. I do notice a little more battery drain however.
When it comes to revenue in 1st quarter, I think the AirPods will give us an extra $1 billion in sales and they will be hard to find thru Christmas.
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Post by longsince98 on Sept 17, 2016 14:02:10 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Sept 17, 2016 17:56:45 GMT -8
Any reaction to Friday's bearish harami?
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Post by appledoc on Sept 18, 2016 3:28:48 GMT -8
Not a fan of iOS 10. Notifications interface is terrible, especially on the locked screen. Not a fan of the iMessage changes. Getting rid of the health dashboard is a huge mistake. A daily overview of all the fracked categories is worthless, I want to see my progress over time. I can't figure out what's up with the new home button (sometimes it opens the home screen with touch, other times I have to press the button after using touch). And does anyone know how to change the keyboard so it goes back to letters automatically after using the special keyboard?
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 18, 2016 4:10:43 GMT -8
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Sept 18, 2016 5:25:14 GMT -8
Upgraded from 6 to 7, and whilst a little sad there isn't a significant external difference, this feels like an imcredibly polished and capable phone. A joy to use, with force touch, the improved home button, and general SPEED really adding to the experience. Way to go apple.
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Post by nagrani on Sept 18, 2016 5:26:39 GMT -8
Any reaction to Friday's bearish harami? Not too worried - we were way oversold on the RSI coupled with it being options expiration. I say we go up to 120ish before <110
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Post by aaplcrazie on Sept 18, 2016 8:13:19 GMT -8
Not a fan of iOS 10. Notifications interface is terrible, especially on the locked screen. Not a fan of the iMessage changes. Getting rid of the health dashboard is a huge mistake. A daily overview of all the fracked categories is worthless, I want to see my progress over time. I can't figure out what's up with the new home button (sometimes it opens the home screen with touch, other times I have to press the button after using touch). And does anyone know how to change the keyboard so it goes back to letters automatically after using the special keyboard? I Concur, The home button is very odd as you said sometimes it works sometimes it docent I'am on a 6 so no raise to wake, I also dislike the "press home to Unlock" message very un like and blocks my lock screen image...also think some of the GUI look a bit childish and cartoon like.
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Post by northstar on Sept 18, 2016 8:55:41 GMT -8
Not a fan of iOS 10. Notifications interface is terrible, especially on the locked screen. Not a fan of the iMessage changes. Getting rid of the health dashboard is a huge mistake. A daily overview of all the fracked categories is worthless, I want to see my progress over time. I can't figure out what's up with the new home button (sometimes it opens the home screen with touch, other times I have to press the button after using touch). And does anyone know how to change the keyboard so it goes back to letters automatically after using the special keyboard? I Concur, The home button is very odd as you said sometimes it works sometimes it docent I'am on a 6 so no raise to wake, I also dislike the "press home to Unlock" message very un like and blocks my lock screen image...also think some of the GUI look a bit childish and cartoon like. I believe you can customize these features to your taste, see user guide here: www.imore.com/how-to-navigate-lock-screen-iphone-and-ipad
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Post by mace on Sept 18, 2016 9:25:37 GMT -8
Any reaction to Friday's bearish harami? Not too worried - we were way oversold on the RSI coupled with it being options expiration. I say we go up to 120ish before <110 Is worrisome because before that is a bearish gaps up. Just to be safe, STC all Sep and Oct calls. Left with calls (LEAPS 2018)... debating whether it is worthwhile to close them, and buy again... for a drop of $8-$10.
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Post by david on Sept 18, 2016 10:05:41 GMT -8
..., I also dislike the "press home to Unlock" message very un like and blocks my lock screen image...also think some of the GUI look a bit childish and cartoon like. "follow these simple directions to disable ‘Press Home to Unlock.’ 1) Launch the Settings app. 2) Go to General > Accessibility > Home Button. 3) Turn on the Rest Finger to Open toggle." -http://www.idownloadblog.com/2016/09/13/how-to-turn-off-press-to-unlock-iphone/
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Post by david on Sept 18, 2016 10:18:13 GMT -8
Any reaction to Friday's bearish harami? Kind of looked like bearish harami, but really wasn't. Should be up Monday. Course if it turns out to be an abandoned baby, better sell first thing Monday. Will probably open down, therefore. BWDIK.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 18, 2016 13:32:51 GMT -8
I constantly used the Snooze function from my calendar reminders in case I couldn't do something at the moment ... this way I would not forget. That function is gone. I'm lost.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Sept 18, 2016 15:24:51 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 18, 2016 16:14:25 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on Sept 18, 2016 18:50:16 GMT -8
Any reaction to Friday's bearish harami? Top of W5, but could extend? Short squeeze above friday high. For now, looks like AAPL is working on MACD neg-D. Say what!?
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Post by mace on Sept 18, 2016 19:24:35 GMT -8
On the daily chart, Bearish harami candlestick pattern Negative bearish divergence, RSI vs price MACD, not yet bearish divergence (neg-D) but if Monday is down, that would be. Stochastic overbought, if Monday down, also bearish divergence. Volume decreasing as price increases for the most recent three trading days.
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