Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 21:59:01 GMT -8
Yep, good ol Cramer, selll, sell, sell. S&P has dropped 90 points from its recent high and AAPl is trading at a 12.6 p/e. Yep, time to sell. It might be (don't rule anything out), but I don't think so, based on watching institutional trading trends.
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 7, 2012 22:00:21 GMT -8
Yep, good ol Cramer, selll, sell, sell. S&P has dropped 90 points from its recent high and AAPl is trading at a 12.6 p/e. Yep, time to sell. It might be (don't rule anything out), but I don't think so, based on watching institutional trading trends. What do you see, Gregg?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 22:18:00 GMT -8
It might be (don't rule anything out), but I don't think so, based on watching institutional trading trends. What do you see, Gregg? I see that day has turned into night, and that again I failed to get pictures of cars I am selling off to prospective buyers (anyone want to buy a 1940 Buick Century 4 door convertible project? Fewer than 200 made. I own 4).
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Post by terps530 on Nov 7, 2012 22:18:17 GMT -8
not sure if this was posted, but Horace Dediu seems to think Apple gave sharp 2billion and that is why there is a discrepancy on the 10k expenses? www.insidermonkey.com/blog/apple-inc-aapl-did-it-post-a-2b-bailout-of-sharp-27858/excerpt "Asymco analyst Horace Dediu looked over the numbers and found a discrepancy. He found that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) posted expenses in 2012 that were $2.3 billion higher than what was forecast, and cash outlays for capital expenditures was $2 billion lower than the expenses, which signified that the expense did not come from cash. He postulated that this money went toward Sharp, which has been an important partner for Apple Inc (AAPL) display screens, and Sharp has been having some financial struggles of late."
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 7, 2012 22:21:07 GMT -8
I see that day has turned into night, and that again I failed to get pictures of cars I am selling off to prospective buyers (anyone want to buy a 1940 Buick Century 4 door convertible project? Fewer than 200 made. I own 4). Why bother responding with that type of answer. Useless.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 22:28:15 GMT -8
It is all in the candle. Which means the wick has to be much longer than the body. I do not see capitulation, I see 2008 all over again. Remember, we didn't have QE in 2008. The markets are no longer "free." Central banks manipulate through monetary policy -- they will inflate before "allowing" markets to crash.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 7, 2012 22:28:43 GMT -8
The day after the elections four years ago, the market tanked 5%. I should have been smart enough to see this one coming. But then, Apple has more than quintupled in the four years since then, even with this price decline. I'm trying to keep my head out of the chaos of the moment, and hoping history repeats itself. And what did it do when Bill Clinton was reelected? :-) Bill Clinton cut capital gains taxes. He didn't raise them.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 22:30:03 GMT -8
(...)Another bid for 2 Apr 13 635/640 BCSs @ $1.26 filled, lowered the overall cost basis for the 12 total BCSs about $0.10 to about $1.91.(...) I like those. Good job.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 22:39:50 GMT -8
maybe the way to play it is think like an Evil Overlord then. (...) Works for me.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 22:41:36 GMT -8
Why bother responding with that type of answer. Useless. My point is that I have been providing a great deal of information for quite some time. I've told where I get my raw data, and what I see in it. I'm tired of repeating myself. But for you I will say this: Call Open Interest bottomed on October 31 at 1,845,219 contracts. Put Open Interest bottomed on the same date at 1,338,557 contracts. Since then both have increased, but Call Open Interest has increased much faster. Current Open Interest: Calls 2,220,204 (up 374,985). Puts 1,620,617 (up 292,060). The above is through the end of today's trading, so includes the big dip today.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2012 22:43:45 GMT -8
maybe the way to play it is think like an Evil Overlord then. (...) Works for me. I was thinking, "walk like an Egyptian".
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 22:50:04 GMT -8
(...)My concern is when does this become a "broken" stock, where the technical damage is almost irreparable? Would it then be up to the fundamentals to fix everything? IMHO, it's broken when they run out of cash. Technicals aren't driving the action...they are just telling us what is happening as it happens. Technicals levels are shorthand for the underlying psychology. Remember Elder...support becomes support because former sellers regret selling there and want a second chance, and former would-have-been-buyers regret not buying there and want a second chance. Resistance becomes resistance because former buyers regret buying there and want their money back...and former would-have-been-sellers regret not getting off the roller-coaster there and want a second chance. Let this last act play out. Let's see where we are in a week.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 22:52:17 GMT -8
I was thinking, "walk like an Egyptian". Great, now that song's stuck in my head!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 22:56:10 GMT -8
Capitulation doesn't happen when everyone is relatively calm like we were over the last couple of weeks. Based on the psyche of the board today, we may close to it now. +1 If you're still buying the dip-that-keep-dipping with a smile on your face, not a shiver down your spine, then it ain't over.
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Post by alice on Nov 7, 2012 22:59:16 GMT -8
Why bother responding with that type of answer. Useless. My point is that I have been providing a great deal of information for quite some time. I've told where I get my raw data, and what I see in it. I'm tired of repeating myself. But for you I will say this: Call Open Interest bottomed on October 31 at 1,845,219 contracts. Put Open Interest bottomed on the same date at 1,338,557 contracts. Since then both have increased, but Call Open Interest has increased much faster. Current Open Interest: Calls 2,220,204 (up 374,985). Puts 1,620,617 (up 292,060). The above is through the end of today's trading, so includes the big dip today. Gregg, calls/puts open interest numbers for Nov17?
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 23:01:27 GMT -8
It would be great to see some concerted buying by the big boys in the last hour... If I was an EO, I'd let the little people sweat it out, fearing "what if...? what if...?" until next week. Our former police officers can correct me on this one: It's like the psychology of cops making an arrest...often their silence makes the perp spill his guts better than interrogation. In the absence of big money buying, weak hands (and margin liquidations) give up the goods.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 7, 2012 23:05:51 GMT -8
In the short term (this quarter) I think Apple can produce as much hardware as it wants. Wether it does will depend on how long it takes to fix iOS. Going into the March quarter I see iOS problems as being mostly corrected. Some interesting thoughts, Gregg. I have to strongly disagree with the part I quoted though. The iPhone 5 is certainly difficult to put together hardware wise. I don't think there's any disputing that. The fact that so many have been scuffed right out of the box (mine was too, so I know it really does happen) is just one concrete indication, in addition to just looking at the build quality. I also don't understand the correlation between producing iPhone 5 units to sell and fixing iOS. If Apple is holding back on iPhone 5 production because of iOS, that makes absolutely zero sense.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 23:07:12 GMT -8
did anyone pick up any Jan14 spreads today? if you look around 700 it seems pretty cheap. getting into the upper 600's not so much. Yes. JAN'14 700/750s.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 23:08:16 GMT -8
Good to see you here, Cap. (Old guy from the old board.) Thank you. And likewise. "Old guy" reminds me of a story. OT, but a little at the close humor won't hurt ... Cary Grant carefully guarded his actual age. A reporter, hoping to catch him at a weak moment, sent him a telegram: "How old Cary Grant?" Grant wired back "Old Cary Grant fine. How you?" ROFL!!!!!! Thank you, I needed that!!!!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 23:12:20 GMT -8
And you can only talk about AAPL, not broader, market moving , events and news. You've created a forum where we get to watch people lose money in a benevolent, mushroom kind of way! It's my sweetness and light. But you can talk about whatever you want, Eric. You just have to direct your talk to the proper thread.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 23:14:37 GMT -8
...you're thinking like Wal-Mart shoppers wanting price guarantees. Exactly! I want my goddamn 10% price match guarantee, and I want it now! LOL!!!
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 7, 2012 23:21:47 GMT -8
(...)My concern is when does this become a "broken" stock, where the technical damage is almost irreparable? Would it then be up to the fundamentals to fix everything? IMHO, it's broken when they run out of cash. Technicals aren't driving the action...they are just telling us what is happening as it happens. Technicals levels are shorthand for the underlying psychology. Remember Elder...support becomes support because former sellers regret selling there and want a second chance, and former would-have-been-buyers regret not buying there and want a second chance. Resistance becomes resistance because former buyers regret buying there and want their money back...and former would-have-been-sellers regret not getting off the roller-coaster there and want a second chance. Let this last act play out. Let's see where we are in a week. Lovey, sometimes I wonder if this is true. I believe it once was, but as the bulk of the trading is now done by the algorithms, the programs have to be based on analysis of the data. That implies to me that the technicals might indeed drive the trading. For example, if the technicals expect a 38% retrace, the programs would kick in at that point and make it so. I just question if the premise of mass psychology as a basis for trading is valid in this automated market. A good example of this is the recent article by Elder. When he attempted to add a fundamental justification for his call for the decline and fall of Apple, his reasons were superficial. Yet the market followed his technical predictions just like it did in April. This looks to me like a self fulfilling prophecy. EO's are a convenient simplification to the apparent irrationality of the market, but I just wonder if it isn't something more subtle, like feedback loops within the algorithms. I guess it doesn't really matter too much. About the only rational strategy I see is buy and hold. (Although Gregg might be onto something)
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 23:27:41 GMT -8
Bud, I always love your posts!! Yes, I think Gregg is definitely on to something... Option activity does provide us with clues. I want to reply to the chicken-egg thing (agree on feedback loops!), but I am so tired and it's way past my bedtime...so raincheck on that one...
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