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Post by hellojapan on Nov 8, 2012 9:07:18 GMT -8
To keep things in perspective, I did a quick look at many other big name stocks and found AAPL isn't the only one well off it's 52-week highs. GOOG - down about 15% AMZN - down about 13% PCLN - down about 18% CMG - down about 40% NFLX - down about 41% BIDU - down about 32% LNKD - down about 21% GRPN - down about 86% GMCR - down about 65% SBUX - down about 17% FB - down about 55% etc. AAPL - down about 22% Yes. Google is about $115 off its high but I barely hear a peep about it on CNBC compared to the cacophony of wailing about everything wrong with Apple.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 8, 2012 9:10:02 GMT -8
I'm liking the fight around 550 and would greatly appreciate it holding and then pushing from there this afternoon. please!
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 8, 2012 9:11:51 GMT -8
Not really, because it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. The real low P/E ex cash figures were 7.54 in late 2008 and 6.86 in early 2009. Earnings were understated in 2008/2009 because of the old GAAP rules. Investors knew earnings were being deferred, and analysis was published at the old AFB and elsewhere of how much higher the true earnings were. Finally, Apple restated their earnings once the accounting rules were changed, so we can make very precise comparisons. P/C got as low as 2.5 in late 2008, 2.64 in early 2009, and 3.73 in May 2009. We've talked about this recently regarding how earnings were being calculated. I'm just going based off what was reported at the time. And yes, my mistake on the P/C low. Looked at my chart wrong. On May 13, 2009 we traded at a P/C of 3.73. Every time comparisons are made to 2008/2009, I'm going to point out why it makes sense to look at restated earnings. I want to be clear that it's not directed at you personally. But I do want to make sure our readers get the full perspective.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Nov 8, 2012 9:11:58 GMT -8
I think it would be helpful to have an Exit Strategy thread. Wow that's a pretty strong show of capitulation. The "bullest" board of AAPL investors on the web and a request for a place to talk about getting out.
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icam
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Post by icam on Nov 8, 2012 9:12:43 GMT -8
To keep things in perspective, I did a quick look at many other big name stocks and found AAPL isn't the only one well off it's 52-week highs. GOOG - down about 15% AMZN - down about 13% PCLN - down about 18% CMG - down about 40% NFLX - down about 41% BIDU - down about 32% LNKD - down about 21% GRPN - down about 86% GMCR - down about 65% SBUX - down about 17% FB - down about 55% etc. AAPL - down about 22% Thanks for the chart ... perspective is everything at a time like this. As painful as this last month has been I have to keep looking at Apple's product line and telling myself it has NEVER been this strong going into the holiday quarter. New everything ... iPad, iPad Mini, iPhone, iMac, Macbook . The stores will be packed starting very soon ..... it will help the stock. The stores are packed now! ;D
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Mav
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[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 8, 2012 9:12:55 GMT -8
Yes Pikes, but how do they all compare with AAPL's multiple and record of real growth on really big numbers?
That's the disconnect. AAPL treated like a peer.
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Post by spoonman on Nov 8, 2012 9:16:20 GMT -8
Whenever I start feeling like this i go over to the apple store and just hang there for 20 minutes and everything feels a lot better. It's buzzing and humming with buyers and apple people. Makes all these charts and numbers and ratios tangible. It's like going to church. Clears the head at bit.
If you're on margin or hold short term options i feel your pain. I'm holding a bunch of that too but hopefully all of us have some LEAPS and low cost basis commons to offset this brutal pain.
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 8, 2012 9:19:06 GMT -8
The only good news is that maybe we've lost Nate? But seriously, this isn't much fun. Thankfully this isn't atypical if you look at a 5 year chart. That is not good news, he is one of us! We need to stick together at a time like this.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 8, 2012 9:19:19 GMT -8
We've already crossed the 20M mark. The only good thing going for us today.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 9:19:53 GMT -8
I think it would be helpful to have an Exit Strategy thread. Wow that's a pretty strong show of capitulation. The "bullest" board of AAPL investors on the web and a request for a place to talk about getting out. Depends on the context: 1: WTF I'm loosing all my stuff what do I do OR Wow we've had a great run and what are the options (no pun intended) apart from holding on and risking another trip to the wailing wall like we had in Oct/Nov 12? (as in a future statement.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 9:26:29 GMT -8
The only good news is that maybe we've lost Nate? But seriously, this isn't much fun. Thankfully this isn't atypical if you look at a 5 year chart. That is not good news, he is one of us! We need to stick together at a time like this. That's very true, I don't wish to loose anyone although in perspective Nate was a poor listener and I often asked myself what value the board is/was to Nate given his unwillingness to listen and constantly ask for the elusive answer of what the stock is going to do today or tomorrow.
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Post by alice on Nov 8, 2012 9:28:20 GMT -8
Wow that's a pretty strong show of capitulation. The "bullest" board of AAPL investors on the web and a request for a place to talk about getting out. Depends on the context: 1: WTF I'm loosing all my stuff what do I do OR Wow we've had a great run and what are the options (no pun intended) apart from holding on and risking another trip to the wailing wall like we had in Oct/Nov 12? (as in a future statement. Exit strategy can be what you want it to be to fit your needs and risk levels. A plan could be to sell a percentage when a support level is broken on the way down during this recent downtrend. People talk about buying when a resistance level is broken on a run up. It should be no difference on the way down as well.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 8, 2012 9:32:39 GMT -8
I sold one of my Jan 13 spread positions at a loss versus rolling it. Felt like I could do better. Will see how we are doing tomorrow afternoon before I consider making any moves.
Lesson learned: don't hold out for max value on your spreads even if it seems like an absolute sure thing.
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Post by mstefa on Nov 8, 2012 9:34:22 GMT -8
at what point company starts thinking of taking itself private? I mean.. take that cash, and with 300 bln line of credit you get to keep all the profits after 5,6 years.. I don't see this madness continuing , esp. if 50+ billion in january is beaten. if I was TC I would actually start discussing taking it private with some large pension funds or something like that.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 9:34:53 GMT -8
Ha just found a great phrase to describe a part of the cycle of Apple. In referencing the time in the cycle when the analyst fame seekers come out of the woodwork and point out extreme generalizations on Apple's future demise. "The Loop of Doom" particularly appropriate for a tech company I might add.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 9:35:54 GMT -8
Depends on the context: 1: WTF I'm loosing all my stuff what do I do OR Wow we've had a great run and what are the options (no pun intended) apart from holding on and risking another trip to the wailing wall like we had in Oct/Nov 12? (as in a future statement. Exit strategy can be what you want it to be to fit your needs and risk levels. A plan could be to sell a percentage when a support level is broken on the way down during this recent downtrend. People talk about buying when a resistance level is broken on a run up. It should be no difference on the way down as well. +1
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Post by seabiscuit on Nov 8, 2012 9:37:25 GMT -8
Oppenheimer is trying to talk the stock up... says we can regain $620... let's see if anyone is listening. Where did you see this re Oppenheimer?
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Post by hellojapan on Nov 8, 2012 9:41:28 GMT -8
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 9:41:48 GMT -8
To continue the theme of everything being upside down: Most of Apple's major suppliers blew out their numbers and guidance is up. However, Apple is the target of a supply chain shortage rumor.
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Post by Plato on Nov 8, 2012 9:49:08 GMT -8
One thing is for sure - this stock is the most oversold stock on the NASDAQ
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Post by flyonthewall on Nov 8, 2012 9:57:01 GMT -8
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 10:07:17 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 8, 2012 10:16:30 GMT -8
Jesus...when will this be over already?
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Post by The Big Toe on Nov 8, 2012 10:29:50 GMT -8
STUPID iPHONE 5! Ever since this product came out, this stock has gone down, and it is not too hard to see why. It only has outsold the previous iphone version at launch, and Apple continues to sell each and every one that they produce. Apple managment keeps rolling out this iphone 5 to new markets when all we hear is about supply constraints... how stupid is that?
(Tongue firmly planted in cheek).
Sadly I have to keep reminding myself that there is a difference between Apple, and AAPL.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 10:38:23 GMT -8
Just a small observation and I am we'll up for correction if what I am seeing is wrong: the volume on the drops is less than the volume on rises in the daily graph. Not huge but noticeable. Little like my Chihuahua is bigger than yours though
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Post by rickag on Nov 8, 2012 10:44:32 GMT -8
Just a small observation and I am we'll up for correction if what I am seeing is wrong: the volume on the drops is less than the volume on rises in the daily graph. Not huge but noticeable. Little like my Chihuahua is bigger than yours though Thanks for the observation, I'll take any positive information right now.
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Post by charles on Nov 8, 2012 10:51:40 GMT -8
Man, I wish everyone would quit selling so the price would go up for any buyers that might be out there. I miss the calm confidence of Sponge at times like this. Where has he gone? And BrazilNUts. Can someone contact him and bring him in please? Bought the dip at $650 or so and am feeling much less smug lately
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Post by mcharliem on Nov 8, 2012 10:54:50 GMT -8
On top of the great reports and guidance from QCOM and CRUS, there's also good news in PANL's miss and lowering of guidance. PANL is a small cap that collects royalties on OLED screens, which a lot of other smart phone manufacturers are using, especially Samsung. A warning for them, combined with strong Qualcomm guidance, are two great signs for Apple in its competition with Samsung.
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Post by po1nt on Nov 8, 2012 10:54:54 GMT -8
Just a small observation and I am we'll up for correction if what I am seeing is wrong: the volume on the drops is less than the volume on rises in the daily graph. Not huge but noticeable. Little like my Chihuahua is bigger than yours though Thanks for the observation, I'll take any positive information right now. Positive: Another couple bucks, and AAPL's divy yield will be over 2%!
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Post by fas550 on Nov 8, 2012 10:55:06 GMT -8
The stock is trading on sentiment alone. Unfortunately we are alone in our sentiment.
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