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Post by ibuyer on Nov 9, 2012 7:32:47 GMT -8
Wow, I like the price action so far. And with strong volume. BTW, I picked up another 100 common this morning @ 535. Also, got a Jan 15 600/630 BuCS@ 9.75. All this before the price started moving higher. Whew! Hope this move up is the start of the reversal and not another bull trap. Just wondering, why not Febs? Aapl earnings will be for sure will be out then. Jan Options are a toss up
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 9, 2012 7:34:54 GMT -8
Agian, this article focuses on the fundamentals of Apple, the story of AAPL is irrational. yes, but somewhere along the way fundamentals will take over again ... only question is when Here's a fundamental for you. Suppose the stock tanks to 350, then TC and the BOD announce a $40B buyback, stock doubles after that. (Ive got a wild imagination)
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Post by PikesPique on Nov 9, 2012 7:35:27 GMT -8
Wow, I like the price action so far. And with strong volume. BTW, I picked up another 100 common this morning @ 535. Also, got a Jan 15 600/630 BuCS@ 9.75. All this before the price started moving higher. Whew! Hope this move up is the start of the reversal and not another bull trap. Just wondering, why not Febs? Aapl earnings will be for sure will be out then. Jan Options are a toss up Jan 2015, not 2013.
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 9, 2012 7:38:15 GMT -8
"That comparison kind of ignores the fact that AAPL is still growing" Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. At least that's what Wall Street is wondering. believe that is what this sell off is all about. 90 points straight down since earnings and guidance were released, guidance which predicted earnings reduction for the first time since the iPod era. Yes, they lowball guidance, but not by all that much under Tim C. So, Jan may decrease trailing twelve month earnings-- they're valuing it based in what the PE might be in Feb. fair? Accurate? Doesn't matter, it's based on fear, yes, but fear about apple turning into a negative growth story like HP - so it's reducing Apples PE toward that level. They gave guidance of an earnings decline within the last two years, can't remember the quarter, but of course they blew that guidance out of the water.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 9, 2012 7:38:51 GMT -8
My bad!
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Post by terps530 on Nov 9, 2012 7:42:21 GMT -8
i wanna see this 547 break and ROCKET!
lol its exciting seeing green #s
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Post by adamthompson32 on Nov 9, 2012 7:43:05 GMT -8
Wow, I like the price action so far. And with strong volume. BTW, I picked up another 100 common this morning @ 535. Also, got a Jan 15 600/630 BuCS@ 9.75. All this before the price started moving higher. Whew! Hope this move up is the start of the reversal and not another bull trap. I bought Feb 650's yesterday at the close. So far, so good. I'm still down 90% on my April 750's though. Oh well, I'll close them out if/when we get a nice rally because I'm not sure we'll see the levels I expected by then. Just wondering, why not Febs? Aapl earnings will be for sure will be out then. Jan Options are a toss up
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 9, 2012 7:45:43 GMT -8
i wanna see this 547 break and ROCKET! lol its exciting seeing green #s Oh yes, that double digit (>$10) green looks so good!
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 9, 2012 7:47:27 GMT -8
I bought Feb 650's yesterday at the close. So far, so good. I'm still down 90% on my April 750's though. Oh well, I'll close them out if/when we get a nice rally because I'm not sure we'll see the levels I expected by then. Just wondering, why not Febs? Aapl earnings will be for sure will be out then. Jan Options are a toss up I share your pain. Bullish call spread in feb/June look interesting. Or risk reversals too. For the very bold
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Post by Apple II+ on Nov 9, 2012 7:48:44 GMT -8
yes, but somewhere along the way fundamentals will take over again ... only question is when Here's a fundamental for you. Suppose the stock tanks to 350, then TC and the BOD announce a $40B buyback, stock doubles after that. (Ive got a wild imagination) It won't take a buyback for AAPL to double, and it won't take tanking to 350. Give AAPL two years, and it will have doubled from wherever the low was, if history is any guide.
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Post by rob_london on Nov 9, 2012 7:52:31 GMT -8
RBC Capital calculate that a China Mobile deal could add $3 per share to Apple's annual profit.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 9, 2012 7:52:38 GMT -8
"That comparison kind of ignores the fact that AAPL is still growing" Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. At least that's what Wall Street is wondering. believe that is what this sell off is all about. 90 points straight down since earnings and guidance were released, guidance which predicted earnings reduction for the first time since the iPod era. Yes, they lowball guidance, but not by all that much under Tim C. So, Jan may decrease trailing twelve month earnings-- they're valuing it based in what the PE might be in Feb. fair? Accurate? Doesn't matter, it's based on fear, yes, but fear about apple turning into a negative growth story like HP - so it's reducing Apples PE toward that level. I agree. Sandbag or not, 14 vs 13 weeks, whatever. Guiding an EPS decline was ridiculous. Unless its actually feasible, which is terrifying.
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Post by nkmho on Nov 9, 2012 7:58:11 GMT -8
I read this on another board: Someone picked up 10,000 Feb 600/615 @$3.55 at 10:03am. Quite a bit of money there.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 9, 2012 7:58:35 GMT -8
How many chickies will I have...? Lemme see...1,2,3,4,5,6,7, 700+ by JAN'13 I figure I've called enough bottoms from 585 to here...what's one more? THIS SURE LOOKS LIKE IT!!!!
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Post by adamthompson32 on Nov 9, 2012 7:59:29 GMT -8
"That comparison kind of ignores the fact that AAPL is still growing" Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. At least that's what Wall Street is wondering. believe that is what this sell off is all about. 90 points straight down since earnings and guidance were released, guidance which predicted earnings reduction for the first time since the iPod era. Yes, they lowball guidance, but not by all that much under Tim C. So, Jan may decrease trailing twelve month earnings-- they're valuing it based in what the PE might be in Feb. fair? Accurate? Doesn't matter, it's based on fear, yes, but fear about apple turning into a negative growth story like HP - so it's reducing Apples PE toward that level. I agree. Sandbag or not, 14 vs 13 weeks, whatever. Guiding an EPS decline was ridiculous. Unless its actually feasible, which is terrifying. The key right now is to look at revenue, not EPS. I realize that sounds dumb but it is the key for this Q. History tells us Apple will realize reduced gross margins due to product transitions. The real key is revenue growth because that shows demand for Apple's products globally continues to grow. Margins will normalize in the coming quarters. If revenue continues to ramp (I can't see how it won't with the smart phone market growing significantly still and for the foreseeable future) EPS will increase, perhaps disproportionately to the upside.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 9, 2012 8:00:02 GMT -8
i know people were saying in order for capitulation to be THE capitulation, it has to be followed by a strong upswing with strong volume. What kind of volume are we thinking?
Of course I'm sure we are all very cautious to not get fooled by a 1 day pop (we've seen two 20+pt move days in a day followed by more pain in the past few weeks), but it still is encouraging.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 9, 2012 8:01:00 GMT -8
i know people were saying in order for capitulation to be THE capitulation, it has to be followed by a strong upswing with strong volume. What kind of volume are we thinking? Of course I'm sure we are all very cautious to not get fooled by a 1 day pop (we've seen two 20+pt move days in a day followed by more pain in the past few weeks), but it still is encouraging. Reversing yesterday would be excellent.
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Post by doublerainbow on Nov 9, 2012 8:04:02 GMT -8
$550! never thought I'd see this number again but boy am I happy to see it now considering what's been happening... lol funny how quickly we adapt
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Post by rob_london on Nov 9, 2012 8:04:44 GMT -8
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 9, 2012 8:05:15 GMT -8
Here's a fundamental for you. Suppose the stock tanks to 350, then TC and the BOD announce a $40B buyback, stock doubles after that. (Ive got a wild imagination) It won't take a buyback for AAPL to double, and it won't take tanking to 350. Give AAPL two years, and it will have doubled from wherever the low was, if history is any guide. Pls do not take offense. The debate in the market is whether history is a good guide for the future. The era of unconstrained growth in new markets and new product categories in new geographies with full pricing power is over. With much personal protest, friends are buying Samsung phones to replace iPhones. Nexus, galaxy and kindles are in the conversation in tablets. Damn amazon and nexus can sell for no margin too! The crux of the sell off is the debate whether future revs and margins and EPS is sustainable. FWIW, I am bullish and think rev growth is sustainable but worry when they need to trade off margins and create ipad minis to increase the market reach. Think iPhone mini...
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 9, 2012 8:06:38 GMT -8
i know people were saying in order for capitulation to be THE capitulation, it has to be followed by a strong upswing with strong volume. What kind of volume are we thinking? Of course I'm sure we are all very cautious to not get fooled by a 1 day pop (we've seen two 20+pt move days in a day followed by more pain in the past few weeks), but it still is encouraging. Reversing yesterday would be excellent. On 40m volume would be most excellent
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Post by PikesPique on Nov 9, 2012 8:08:41 GMT -8
I read this on another board: Someone picked up 10,000 Feb 600/615 @$3.55 at 10:03am. Quite a bit of money there. 10,000? Sh*t! I thought I was buying 10. Oh, the margin call is going to hurt. :-)
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Post by fas550 on Nov 9, 2012 8:10:38 GMT -8
When I hear MSFT is a Apple competitor in the smartphone and tablet market it is like me saying I am a competitor to George Clooney for leading roles of major movies. The common factor is I nor MSFT is even a blip on the pie chart of competitors.
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Post by podboy on Nov 9, 2012 8:13:56 GMT -8
Is the shelling over? Can I come out of my bomb shelter now? I haven't seen the sun in 7 weeks, lost a limb. Keep calm, carry on.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 9, 2012 8:14:57 GMT -8
I picked up some Feb '13 425/450 BCSs in an IRA that had some unused cash just sitting there. See how conservative I've gotten during this scare!
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Post by bryanyc on Nov 9, 2012 8:15:44 GMT -8
I read this on another board: Someone picked up 10,000 Feb 600/615 @$3.55 at 10:03am. Quite a bit of money there. 10,000? Sh*t! I thought I was buying 10. Oh, the margin call is going to hurt. :-) LOL ;D giant fat fingers
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 9, 2012 8:16:14 GMT -8
Now THAT is a little AAPL power. iPad, let me know when I start buying back in.
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Post by nkmho on Nov 9, 2012 8:17:54 GMT -8
10,000? Sh*t! I thought I was buying 10. Oh, the margin call is going to hurt. :-) LOL ;D giant fat fingers Rochdale at work again perhaps.
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Post by bryanyc on Nov 9, 2012 8:18:59 GMT -8
When I hear MSFT is a Apple competitor in the smartphone and tablet market it is like me saying I am a competitor to George Clooney for leading roles of major movies. The common factor is I nor MSFT is even a blip on the pie chart of competitors. I'm getting some good laughs here this morning! Must be either green shoots of humor - or the gallows type. Note: Volume is BIG - about the same as yesterday as we approach the 2 hour mark.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 9, 2012 8:20:29 GMT -8
When I hear MSFT is a Apple competitor in the smartphone and tablet market it is like me saying I am a competitor to George Clooney for leading roles of major movies. The common factor is I nor MSFT is even a blip on the pie chart of competitors. Not yet at least. I think it all depends on how MSFT approaches it. They aren't likely to be a real competitor on their own, but if they're willing to partner (including big $$$, marketing, etc) with others, and if they are willing to "stay the course", it is entirely possible that they could become a real competitor in this market. People I trust have told me that their new OS is quite nice and could be very attractive to customers. However, I think it's a greater threat to Android than to iOS, though definitely a threat to both with regards to market share.
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