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Post by Iceage on Nov 12, 2012 15:38:12 GMT -8
I'm fearful that some SOB will interpret this as a fall off in demand. Hope you don't think I'm an SOB for asking, but how do we know whether reduced shipping times reflect supply increase or demand decrease? I'm just asking the question because no one seems to have the answer to this. It's call working toward "coming into balance" which means "where production meets demand". It's a little bit of both. I think the long shipping times for iPad Mini are more telling. I really feel they will struggle all through the holidays to meet that demand, which could mean a positive surprise on 1Q earnings. In agreement. I went to my local Staples store and ask what was the interest for the iPad mini. The salesperson said that they can't keep up with the demand. This is not going to change before January.
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 12, 2012 15:42:38 GMT -8
What is discouraging is that Kass came out supporting APPL at these price levels and while it ws enough to move the stock up from its -8 price and briefly pushed it into positive territory, it was not enough to sustain a rally. I think that just proves that whatever/whoever moves AAPL doesn't do it based on what they hear on CNBC, and I'm thankful for that.
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Post by lance on Nov 12, 2012 15:46:19 GMT -8
where is TC? is he going to let aapl go down every week this quarter without a single peep? reassuring guidance and investors of supply concerns would flip this dip in one session.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 12, 2012 15:50:37 GMT -8
where is TC? is he going to let aapl go down every week this quarter without a single peep? reassuring guidance and investors of supply concerns would flip this dip in one session. As much as I agree with you - the flip side is that he will be seen as pandering to Wall Street instead of addressing his investors - and then people would be up in arms saying that SJ would never have done that, blah, blah, blah. He's damned no matter what he does - his job is far from easy.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 12, 2012 15:52:15 GMT -8
From Bloomberg news: Shares of Apple are 40% below the average analyst price target of $760.48
It's incredible
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Post by rosie on Nov 12, 2012 16:07:11 GMT -8
this is not political nor was it written to apply to our interests on this board, but it was such a good statement I wanted to share it. one of my favorite authors sends out frequent emails to all of us who have been along for her rise to recognition over the last couple of years and this was part of her latest , written as a guide to aspiring authors. she was an aspiring author not so very long ago and recently had one of her books picked up for movie rights by a very big name. I do digress. Here's her statement .
Please, for the love of all that is good and holy, do not waste your time participating in forums and discussions, and heeding advice (however logical and good it may sound) from people who have not yet achieved what it is that you want to achieve. It might make you feel good—heck, it always feels better to talk and read about the dream than it does to actually do the work—but it is not going to get you any closer to where you want to be.
In whatever field you are in, if you want to reach a level higher than where you are, you don’t do it by getting information and learning from people who are at your level, or God forbid, beneath you. You don’t plot your climb up Mount Everest by talking to the people down at base camp who’ve only watched other people climb the mountain—you hire a guide who’s been there and gotten safely back. If you want to be successful, seek out people who know, listen to people who’ve already walked the path that you’re on.
As it’s been said, “If you run with wolves, you’ll learn how to howl,” so pick your pack wisely. And as I recently read, “Those who never succeed themselves are always first to tell you how.” (Author unknown) Taylor Stevens
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 12, 2012 16:38:30 GMT -8
where is TC? is he going to let aapl go down every week this quarter without a single peep? reassuring guidance and investors of supply concerns would flip this dip in one session. Actually, (how quickly we forget), Oppenheimer met with Apple last week and came away very positive. remember the 620 short term target.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Nov 12, 2012 17:18:33 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 12, 2012 17:45:01 GMT -8
Love the iPad mini commercials - especially the one with Heart and Soul! Gotta love it. This is what my life has come down to - I find myself analyzing AAPL commercials.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 12, 2012 17:52:30 GMT -8
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 12, 2012 18:21:08 GMT -8
Oh goodie, futures are down.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 12, 2012 18:59:14 GMT -8
Oh goodie, futures are down. So what? Futures/PM can't predict a day's action at 9:25AM much less 9:25PM the night before.
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Post by prazan on Nov 12, 2012 19:11:12 GMT -8
I'm fearful that some SOB will interpret this as a fall off in demand. Hope you don't think I'm an SOB for asking, but how do we know whether reduced shipping times reflect supply increase or demand decrease? I'm just asking the question because no one seems to have the answer to this. I'm not too terribly concerned about iPhone5, because Apple should have had enough market data and experience with past iPhone launches to gage the demand. They had to have expected quite a high demand so the fact that they can't fully meet it yet seems to be a very good sign. I think the long shipping times for iPad Mini are more telling. I really feel they will struggle all through the holidays to meet that demand, which could mean a positive surprise on 1Q earnings. We don't know anything for certain until the numbers are released, but we can process the information publicly available and make an educated guess. TC mentioned that demand for the iPhone 5 was robust and that he was confident that supply was ramping to meet demand, though he wouldn't commit that balance would be achieved in the quarter. It also makes sense that production would increase through the quarter as the manufacturer gains experience and yields increase. Then consider that the CEO of Hon Hai/Foxconn mentioned that they were having trouble supplying the demand. They had to know demand would be very strong, based on 37 million units of the 4s sold in Q1 2012, and it would be natural to expect YOY growth in demand. It's difficult to spin this information into a decrease in demand. Not impossible of course, but difficult.
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 12, 2012 19:21:15 GMT -8
Oh goodie, futures are down. So what? Futures/PM can't predict a day's action at 9:25AM much less 9:25PM the night before. Fair to say I'm getting tired of seeing any kind of red. If the TA crowd says we need to retest something, then let's do it and get it over with so we can move on. Forgive me, but my patience is waning.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 12, 2012 19:27:18 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 12, 2012 19:30:30 GMT -8
Prazan, reasonable conclusion that I agree with 100%. You always keep it reasonable. It is not like Apple planned on a flat YOY build rate, it is already higher than last year. When you consider China coming online, I am not concerned about iphone sales. People need to remember, 52 billion. That was a very good revenue guidance number to me. Especially considering the previous year was 46 billion in 14 weeks. If my math is right, that equates to 43 billion for a normal 13 week quarter. Apple guided to over 20% YOY revenue growth using that number. To be honest, I think the 52 might turn out to be the iphone number, TC being funny maybe.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 12, 2012 19:36:36 GMT -8
Honestly, I felt sorry for the guy during the presentation. That was painful to watch and his termination should not really be a surprise. Ballmer had to have a head, it turned out to be a big one.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 12, 2012 19:39:14 GMT -8
No, not if it is more expensive and a competitive disadvantage to less green companies it's not. How about we not let koo koo bird left wing groups decide how my company is run and say we did? TIA.
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Post by kloot on Nov 12, 2012 19:40:12 GMT -8
wow, it's like a carbon copy. weird.
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Post by rosie on Nov 12, 2012 19:43:26 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 12, 2012 19:49:45 GMT -8
mad, I thought you were a technicals guy. Hey, you can wish me luck on my AMZN put play if you want to root for something good to happen...against the odds.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 12, 2012 19:52:09 GMT -8
IMHO, Kass has zero effect on the stock, up or down. M, I don't know what it is going to take for you to start believing the endless stream of FUD does affect Apple negatively.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Nov 12, 2012 19:59:13 GMT -8
Sinofsky of the frozen Surface and the "click".
Not surprising.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 12, 2012 20:06:42 GMT -8
OBTW, pain range is 555-559.99 as of Monday close: Stk Calls Puts 540 4,433 10,729 545 4,674 9,270 550 10,747 13,044 555 7,269 8,257 560 10,717 7,704 565 7,692 5,359 570 13,349 8,974 575 10,368 5,944 I have 10 525 short puts expiring (hopefully worthless) Friday, FYI. I can't emotionally handle another 1000 shares on margin.*
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Post by wolverine on Nov 12, 2012 20:19:59 GMT -8
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Nov 12, 2012 20:28:16 GMT -8
I haven't sent anyone to time-out in a while...I'm too tired... Come sit beside me on the naughty step. Said Betrayus to Broadwell.
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 12, 2012 20:33:11 GMT -8
One possible reason he lists: 3. Could Microsoft be hiring Scott Forstall, the ousted head of mobile software development at Apple? Forstall is a local guy who interned at Microsoft and has family in this area. If he was hired by Microsoft, he'd take a top spot and carve out some of Sinofsky's turf. Wouldn't Apple have some protection in place to prevent Forstall from going to MSFT and compromising Apple's IP? I thought Apple is keeping him on on as advisor or something for a while anyway.
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Post by wolverine on Nov 12, 2012 20:37:51 GMT -8
One possible reason he lists: 3. Could Microsoft be hiring Scott Forstall, the ousted head of mobile software development at Apple? Forstall is a local guy who interned at Microsoft and has family in this area. If he was hired by Microsoft, he'd take a top spot and carve out some of Sinofsky's turf. Wouldn't Apple have some protection in place to prevent Forstall from going to MSFT and compromising Apple's IP? I thought Apple is keeping him on on as advisor or something for a while anyway. Perhaps they're doing a major league trade.
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Post by Xphilos on Nov 12, 2012 20:39:13 GMT -8
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Nov 12, 2012 20:41:51 GMT -8
Little OT: had a chance to check out the 13" Retina MBP at the Apple Store.
Wow.
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