chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 28, 2017 9:43:23 GMT -8
Happy Chinese New Year, everyone! May the gods bring bountiful success to our favorite fruit company.
Nice start to 2017, with four straight green weeks. Alan Greenspan would be happy that we seem to have avoided any "irrational exuberance," given that the weekly increases ranged from $0.96 to $2.09. Personally, I will be particularly interested in the growth in services revenue, now that the iPhone juggernaut has settled in to being a reliable cash cow. There can be little doubt that the explosive growth of that segment is unlikely to return, excepting perhaps the tenth anniversary model getting an additional boost from the so-called "super-cycle." (how many wheels on that thing? ;-) ) But the loyalty of its customers has always been the strength of Apple, and their ability to extend that beyond their hardware products is certainly the key to future growth.
Obviously, it's all Super Bowl all the time here in the Boston area, especially since the Falcons are led by former Boston College star Matt Ryan. These two weeks always seem interminable when your favorite team is involved.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jan 28, 2017 11:41:20 GMT -8
I feel like it is a mistake to discount future explosive growth. 5G connectivity will provide 10x speeds and full duplex. Quantum computing, new materials, autonomous everything...we are just getting started. I think innovation follows a Rayleigh curve, sort of normal bell shaped curve but skewed to the left with a longer slope to the right. You can find examples easily. One phenomena that can generate this kind of curve is when ,for example in R and D, one discovery leads to a new set of questions whose answers lead to more questions. This branching of questions eventually peaks and there is a period of consolidation, the long right hand side of the curve. I believe that, with our current technologies, we are in that consolidation phase. But, in the same way that 3G and 4G opened up the use of the mobile web, new technologies will open up applications we have not even considered. When we were using the first brick cell phones, not one was thinking about mobile web browsing. When we first got satellite navigation (I worked on that in 1968) no one was considering autonomous cars. If I could see the new applications, I would do something about it, but I cannot make myself believe that we have reached any limits. And if that is true, it seems a stretch to think that Apple will not be a player in many new applications, each of them as significant as the iPhone.
It is not even necessary to have faith that someone somewhere will have a next great idea. I used to work with military applications and then, because of the massive funding of the military, the hardware and software was about 3 years ahead of what was on the market. The military had satellite navigation in the mid 60's. Magellan didn't develop the first commercial units until 1988. Even without the assumption of breakthroughs in basic research, I believe that there is enough technology that is known and working to drive several cycles of revolution in the commercial space.
I think analysis that is focused on the next 2-5 years is probably correct in discounting new breakthrough devices. The focus on services and minor enhancements is probably appropriate, but I have seen enough to convince me that this is just a breathing spell. The revolution is just getting started, and I cannot see how Apple will not be at the center of it.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 28, 2017 12:11:24 GMT -8
I feel like it is a mistake to discount future explosive growth. Please note that in my statement "There can be little doubt that the explosive growth of that segment is unlikely to return" the iPhone was the segment referenced, and I feel pretty confident about that. Smartphones are already ubiquitous in most countries where the average individual income can support them. And as we are seeing in India, the struggle over who will pocket the gain among governments, rich residents, and foreign companies means that progress is likely to be much slower than in the past in the remaining markets. But I certainly do agree that when the "Next Great Thing" comes along Apple is likely either to be the progenitor or to provide the "magic sauce" that vaults it into a runaway success. Thanks for your thoughtful reply.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jan 28, 2017 12:28:08 GMT -8
I should have read more carefully. I agree that the iPhone is in an evolutionary phase right now. But I wonder what the clever lads and ladies of Cupertino will do with ubiquitous connections that are 10x what we have now. with 7 nm process, we should see significant gains in CPU power and memory. Do you think that these will result in changes in degree that add up to a change in kind? How significant are the differences between the 3G iPhone and the iPhone 7+? We are in serious agreement here
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Post by tuffett on Jan 28, 2017 16:44:51 GMT -8
I have no doubt Apple will continue to improve on the iPhone for at least the next several years. The problem is there are only so many people in this world who can afford to pay for a high-end cellphone, and the better the iPhone gets the less often people need to replace them. The smartphone has gone from "I have to have the latest" to "I'll only replace mine when it dies".
The question is not whether Apple will be at the forefront of the technology of the future. The question is whether there will ever be such a perfect storm of variables that allowed (and continue to allow) Apple to make so much money from the iPhone.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jan 29, 2017 0:59:23 GMT -8
The immigration ban is causing public tension and the media is all over it. This had to happen two days before Apple's ER. I hope tech stocks don't take a beating because of this. We know one particular stock that gets beaten up easily and badly at any given chance.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 29, 2017 4:15:54 GMT -8
FROM PED: Apple: What Tim Cook said about Trump's immigration ban Remember, Steve Jobs' biological father was a Syrian refugee. Team, In my conversations with officials here in Washington this week, I’ve made it clear that Apple believes deeply in the importance of immigration — both to our company and to our nation’s future. Apple would not exist without immigration, let alone thrive and innovate the way we do. I’ve heard from many of you who are deeply concerned about the executive order issued yesterday restricting immigration from seven Muslim-majority countries. I share your concerns. It is not a policy we support. There are employees at Apple who are directly affected by yesterday’s immigration order. Our HR, Legal and Security teams are in contact with them, and Apple will do everything we can to support them. We’re providing resources on AppleWeb for anyone with questions or concerns about immigration policies. And we have reached out to the White House to explain the negative effect on our coworkers and our company. As I’ve said many times, diversity makes our team stronger. And if there’s one thing I know about the people at Apple, it’s the depth of our empathy and support for one another. It’s as important now as it’s ever been, and it will not weaken one bit. I know I can count on all of you to make sure everyone at Apple feels welcome, respected and valued. Apple is open. Open to everyone, no matter where they come from, which language they speak, who they love or how they worship. Our employees represent the finest talent in the world, and our team hails from every corner of the globe. In the words of Dr. Martin Luther King, “We may have all come on different ships, but we are in the same boat now.” Tim
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Post by hledgard on Jan 29, 2017 7:41:49 GMT -8
I like what Cook said.
Also keep in mind it just takes one new attack in the US to change things.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 29, 2017 10:12:01 GMT -8
I like what Cook said. Also keep in mind it just takes one new attack in the US to change things. I think - as someone said earlier - tech is going to have major issues. Google has already put out an alert to all their people who are traveling given they have (I'm guessing) lots of employees who are not U.S. citizens and may fall under this new executive order. It's causing a bit of mayhem. I appreciate those who feel they want to be better protected with better vetting and this certainly isn't the first time in history this has been done - you can be for it or against it - don't want to take sides or discuss whether it's a disgrace or it has merits HOWEVER to the extent it is all encompassing and its implementation - like anything else is key and I do not feel that much thought went into possible consequences. Seems they threw the baby out with the bath water instead of having a better thought out plan. This can't possibly be good for markets - in particular tech - and yes, I'm being selfish - this was NOT the damn week that we needed this...ugh. To be clear - not a political statement - please do not take it as such.
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Post by sponge on Jan 29, 2017 10:29:43 GMT -8
Don't want to say much about immigration debate, other then from my own personal experience and knowledge that this issue is critical for national security. The WH made it clear the countries chosen were ones that have weak governments and security.. I am personally involved in customs issues and having returned from Middle East last month, I can assure you we have lots of threats and our allies there are helping a great deal. We will get attacked like Europe and it is only a matter of time. We are catching lots of bad guys or investigation many. What they all have in common is that they are immigrants from the Middle East.
Back to Apple. I think sattilite and 5G technology is critical for future innovation. In the meantime if we can improve screen strength and battery life, we will have millions upgrading. Given how much we use our iPhones, 4 years is tops for functional use before battery gives out. Apple is adding about 80 million new users a year. The base is getting bigger and with the intro of new smaller products, there is plenty of growth left without any major product like the car.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 29, 2017 10:37:44 GMT -8
Home has been the next big thing for years. Apple has failed to make any headway, while Amazon has two home runs.
I agree with the comments re: iPhone and delayed upgrades. I'm riding out my current 6 until September. No reason to upgrade when the phone still works fantastically.
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Post by sponge on Jan 29, 2017 10:45:01 GMT -8
Regarding home, I use iPhone to control thermostat and front door. I could use for alarm but have not upgraded. I know others that use for doorbell and security cams. Not sure what more they can do to make functional at the present time.
Lots of Home potential, but I think Apple TV is key. May take a few more years. Smart appliances and windows comes to mind. Siri needs to improve as well.
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Post by macster on Jan 29, 2017 11:41:49 GMT -8
I finally made the decision to cut the cord of Comcast cable tv, although I still maintain performance internet from them. Rely on tv and subscribe to AT&T direct tv now service. They improved the prime time buffering issues that tainted the service with a bad rap. Just bought a refurb tv 4th gen. for the bedroom as the 2nd generation does not airplay well with direct tv now streaming from the iPhone. Limiting my comment on the temporary immigration ban: www.nationalreview.com/article/444370/donald-trump-refugee-executive-order-no-muslim-ban-separating-fact-hysterialawnewz.com/celebrity/on-trial-lawsuits-against-trump-on-muslim-immigration-ban-will-fail-fast/Coincidence? Six of the seven countries temporarily banned by President Donald Trump’s extreme vetting ban. Iran, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Yemen and Libya all have bans on people from Israel entering their country. These are permanent bans, not temporary bans like the President's executive order. So where’s all the outrage here? And they teach their kids hate and are sponsors of hate. Its about time to call them out before the United Nations assembly. Top 10 Muslim Countries By Population #MuslimBan is FAKE NEWS! Indonesia 204,847,000 - NOT BANNED Pakistan 178,000,000 - NOT BANNED India 172,000,000 - NOT BANNED Bangladesh 145,607,000 - NOT BANNED Nigeria 93,839,000 - NOT BANNED Iran 74,819,000 - TEMP BANNED Turkey 74,660,000 - NOT BANNED Egypt 73,800,000 - NOT BANNED Algeria 40,400,000 - NOT BANNED Sudan 39,027,950 - TEMP BANNED
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Post by mace on Jan 29, 2017 12:28:47 GMT -8
Have not used any home automation. Don't understand the need.
Thermostat set once and don't ever change again. Same for windows blinds and curtains.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 29, 2017 14:28:43 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 29, 2017 16:12:34 GMT -8
Yes, SV wants those H1B's that they can exploit. My ex-GF was an H1B at Oracle, treated her like shit, no recourse, or you're fired and out-of-status and must leave the country immediately or face a 10-year ban. Worst kept secret in SV is how H1B's displace US tech workers. Cheaper and easier to control. We treat illegals better than legal immigrants, stupid & unfair moral hazard that needs to change. Our immigration policy should be tough, like Mexico's and Canada's are.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 29, 2017 16:33:55 GMT -8
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 29, 2017 16:51:07 GMT -8
All very salient points Tuffet .... too bad the people who voted for that moron don't give a rat's ass about FACTS .... not real ones anyway. (Alternative facts ? WTF ? )
This is the biggest threat to our constitution I can remember in my lifetime .... a Federal Judge has already spoken and all but said this executive order won't stand up in a court. Trumps' order reads as if it was written by a clueless 3rd grader.
F Trump.
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Post by macster on Jan 29, 2017 17:10:38 GMT -8
All very salient points Tuffet .... too bad the people who voted for that moron don't give a rat's ass about FACTS .... not real ones anyway. (Alternative facts ? WTF ? ) This is the biggest threat to our constitution I can remember in my lifetime .... a Federal Judge has already spoken and all but said this executive order won't stand up in a court. Trumps' order reads as if it was written by a clueless 3rd grader. F Trump. Obama and Carter did the same. lawnewz.com/celebrity/on-trial-lawsuits-against-trump-on-muslim-immigration-ban-will-fail-fast/
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 29, 2017 17:16:58 GMT -8
Yes, SV wants those H1B's that they can exploit. My ex-GF was an H1B at Oracle, treated her like shit, no recourse, or you're fired and out-of-status and must leave the country immediately or face a 10-year ban. Worst kept secret in SV is how H1B's displace US tech workers. Cheaper and easier to control. We treat illegals better than legal immigrants, stupid & unfair moral hazard that needs to change. Our immigration policy should be tough, like Mexico's and Canada's are.You realize Canada has taken in over 30,000 Syrian refugees, and at 1/10 the population of the US. I agree that people coming in to a country should be appropriately vetted, but not blanket bans on countries (or religions). Refugees undergo a greater level of background checks than any other entrant to a country.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 29, 2017 17:19:17 GMT -8
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 29, 2017 17:36:54 GMT -8
I couldn't wait for this election to be over. Was one of the worst as far as the constant barrage of bickering by everyone from both sides.
Now that its over, and has been for a while, the bickering is worst than ever. Even here. I wish they both croaked on the debate podium.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 29, 2017 17:54:03 GMT -8
WRT Trump's business dealings, would you do business within failed states?
Trump is doing the same thing Obama did in 2011, and these are the 7 countries Obama's DHS put on the state sponsors of terror list.
And building safe zones in their own country/region are like 10X more economical than resettlement.
Everyone needs to chill out. We take 1.5M legal immigrants per year. We're full.
And anyone who says "Muslim ban" is being hysterical or disingenuous. Most Muslim countries aren't on the list.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 29, 2017 18:26:47 GMT -8
Have not used any home automation. Don't understand the need. Thermostat set once and don't ever change again. Same for windows blinds and curtains. I get in bed at night ... hit one button to turn out the house lights, backyard lighting, set the alarm, turn the temp down in the unused portion of the house and make sure all the doors are locked. And I'm just scratching the surface .... Trust me .... it's fantastic . Oh yea ... and Trump is still an Asshole.
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Post by sponge on Jan 29, 2017 18:55:41 GMT -8
I am expecting protests every weekend for a long time. Subjects will change but the focus will be anti-Trump and made up by the same people and covered by the same media.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Jan 29, 2017 19:09:07 GMT -8
I am expecting protests every weekend for a long time. Subjects will change but the focus will be anti-Trump and made up by the same people and covered by the same media. Yeah he does seem determined to drive his historically low approval rating even lower with a rich melange of ignorance and incompetence. So long as that continues I'd also expect the protests to grow.
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Post by macster on Jan 29, 2017 19:41:58 GMT -8
I am expecting protests every weekend for a long time. Subjects will change but the focus will be anti-Trump and made up by the same people and covered by the same media. Yeah he does seem determined to drive his historically low approval rating even lower with a rich melange of ignorance and incompetence. So long as that continues I'd also expect the protests to grow. Depends what poll you were fed. Rasmussen has trumps approval rating at 59%. I saw the poll last week from another notable polling outfit where he was at low 40 some %. The same outfit that over polled democrats previously and were called out on it. The danger of fake news, you didn't get Rasmussen poll. Might be biased also. Just because the population centers on the west coast and east coast give libs advantage doesn't mean trumps electorate doesn't approve of what he campaigned on.
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Post by longsince98 on Jan 29, 2017 20:09:56 GMT -8
Hi - can anyone suggest the best resources that weigh Trump's affect on AAPL, balancing potential pros (tax cuts/repatriation) vs potential cons (border tariffs)?
I'm super long on AAPL, and with the upcoming super-cycle & tax benefits, I would really prefer to stay long for a while - but my fear of an unexpected AAPL targeted tweet has me considering my first sale since early aughts.
I know lots of people are weighing the exact same thing - I've just been trying to get more educated.
Thanks
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 29, 2017 20:29:11 GMT -8
Hi - can anyone suggest the best resources that weigh Trump's affect on AAPL, balancing potential pros (tax cuts/repatriation) vs potential cons (border tariffs)? I'm super long on AAPL, and with the upcoming super-cycle & tax benefits, I would really prefer to stay long for a while - but my fear of an unexpected AAPL targeted tweet has me considering my first sale since early aughts. I know lots of people are weighing the exact same thing - I've just been trying to get more educated. Thanks Trying to guess the ramblings of a lunatic ..... it's pretty tough. Who knows what bullshit will come out of his mouth or twitter account next ? Unfortunately, if you want to be in the market these days it's part of the risk you take ...... wish I had a better answer ... if you get one please let me know. Cheers to the longs ....
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Post by longsince98 on Jan 29, 2017 21:06:44 GMT -8
Hi - can anyone suggest the best resources that weigh Trump's affect on AAPL, balancing potential pros (tax cuts/repatriation) vs potential cons (border tariffs)? I'm super long on AAPL, and with the upcoming super-cycle & tax benefits, I would really prefer to stay long for a while - but my fear of an unexpected AAPL targeted tweet has me considering my first sale since early aughts. I know lots of people are weighing the exact same thing - I've just been trying to get more educated. Thanks Trying to guess the ramblings of a lunatic ..... it's pretty tough. Who knows what bullshit will come out of his mouth or twitter account next ? Unfortunately, if you want to be in the market these days it's part of the risk you take ...... wish I had a better answer ... if you get one please let me know. Cheers to the longs .... Yeah, realize that for sure. I'm just looking for more educated analysis of the ups vs the downs of both eventualities, along the lines of this (subscription reqd): ped30.com/2017/01/13/deep-dive-trump-taxes-apple/We all know the pros of the tax benefits, but I'd like more assessment of that, balanced against the cons of the tariff proposals - from the article: "Assuming only 2% of Apple’s COGS are deductible in the US and 65% of its SG&A is, we estimate a $0.22 EPS hit or 3%. The cash flow impact would likely be greater as less of the tax could be deferred. Many economists believe a border-adjusted tax would cause the dollar to strengthen as imports become relatively more expensive. This could have a more profound impact on Apple as we’ve seen over the past two years."
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