chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Feb 4, 2017 7:12:21 GMT -8
Fifth green week in a row (every week in 2017 so far), and the largest increase since September 16. There certainly seems to have been a shift in attitude among the analyst class, but we all know how quickly that can change. We should be getting some rumored results from Chinese New Year soon, which could go either way AFAIK.
Still waiting for word on new iMacs, but not holding my breath.
Here's a shoutout to volvocoupe to do something to improve the quality of the forum. I am sure that we would all appreciate it.
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Post by Apple II+ on Feb 4, 2017 8:01:54 GMT -8
And we plan to provide investors with our annual update on the capital return program in the spring. This being the fourth consecutive quarter at $.57/share dividend, look for $.62/share next earnings release. Assuming that something major with tax/repatriation doesn't happen in the next month or so. Imagine the buybacks and divy's Apple could do with a permanent foreign tax fix. I suspect we'll get a bigger increase in dividend this year, irrespective of tax policy. It's a major lever Apple has over the stock price, and it can help ensure Tim Cook and the executive team get to fully vest more stock grants. Of course there may be other levers the company prefers to use to boost total shareholder return by August and October. Or maybe they will just vest fewer shares, but I hope not.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 4, 2017 8:39:41 GMT -8
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Post by longsince98 on Feb 4, 2017 9:28:50 GMT -8
Hello - perhaps an ignorant question:
As much as I appreciate the cash I receive from dividends, I view them as wasteful for the company (particularly a large one-time dividend). I don't really see how they improve the long term price of AAPL, since people can simply buy in and sell out during distribution dates. I've viewed acquisitions and buy backs (tho impact on AAPL has been debatable) as considerably more strategically valuable.
There seems to be a lot of support on this board for increased dividends and even a single large dividend upon repatriation. However if my position is correct that dividends can be exploited, and therefore don't help long term share price, what's the reason for so much support. If we view it as "our money", then shouldn't we consider that for every dividend-deserving long-term holders, there are many transient buyers who exploit the dates for just the dividend? In other words for us to receive some pennies, we're throwing away many many dollars to exploiters.
Therefore, it would make more sense if that dividend money is instead used in ways that benefit the company's long term outlook (along with long-term shareholders),
I realize there are traders on this board (and I used to be one nearly 20 years ago), but you can't argue that dividends are intended for traders - so this question is regarding long term holder value.
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Post by rickag on Feb 4, 2017 11:36:38 GMT -8
longsince1ish
You make good points. Though I am not sure how many people buy in for a 57¢ dividend, seems kind of meeger for the risk, but I am not a trader so I have limited knowledge how to exploit the dividend.
I do drip the dividend back into AAPL so the shares bought at much lower prices has worked well so far.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 880
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Post by Ted on Feb 4, 2017 12:26:37 GMT -8
Hello - perhaps an ignorant question: As much as I appreciate the cash I receive from dividends, I view them as wasteful for the company (particularly a large one-time dividend). I don't really see how they improve the long term price of AAPL, since people can simply buy in and sell out during distribution dates. I've viewed acquisitions and buy backs (tho impact on AAPL has been debatable) as considerably more strategically valuable. There seems to be a lot of support on this board for increased dividends and even a single large dividend upon repatriation. However if my position is correct that dividends can be exploited, and therefore don't help long term share price, what's the reason for so much support. If we view it as "our money", then shouldn't we consider that for every dividend-deserving long-term holders, there are many transient buyers who exploit the dates for just the dividend? In other words for us to receive some pennies, we're throwing away many many dollars to exploiters. Therefore, it would make more sense if that dividend money is instead used in ways that benefit the company's long term outlook (along with long-term shareholders), I realize there are traders on this board (and I used to be one nearly 20 years ago), but you can't argue that dividends are intended for traders - so this question is regarding long term holder value. While some companies do put restrictions on their dividends, e.g. one must be a holder of a stock for six months to qualify, most do not. Practically speaking, I don't think many traders/funds try to work the system for the divvies, but maybe . . . I think the bigger issue is the benefits that divs bring to a company's stock ownership and price stability/desirability. Income oriented mutual funds buy mega-cap, stable dividend producers by the millions of shares and don't tend to sell out as quickly during bumpy rides; and, though AAPL surely has lower institutional ownership after three or so years of 'doom,' the typical thinking is that AAPL's ownership would be more stable with a higher divvy. Little guys benefit as well, as the initial purchase cost of a stock doesn't change, but companies' dividends do, keeping up with and usually beating inflation. Also, DRIPping is great for small investors allowing them to benefit from the miracle of compounding - yr div buys more shares every quarter, eventually snowballing into great wealth if one has patience and the right company. See, AAPL is like yr own growth and income fund. I reinvest my divs. I look forward to receiving those and the annual increases. Apple already has plenty of $$, more than it can even put to good use so far. Thus the divs are a great use of the excess cash as are the buybacks IMO, as both increase shareholder value over time. Hope that helps a bit.
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Post by galleybob on Feb 4, 2017 16:45:00 GMT -8
I love my dividends and I am hoping for increases. I am retired and making more on dividends than I made working. I had been taking all in cash but I recently decided to reinvest my IRA in shares so I will only take cash for non sheltered money. My dream would be favorable tax changes for Apple so they can increase dividend to 15% but if they continue at the same rate I would still be thrilled. If they think buybacks are still the way to go, they know more than I do so I'm good with that. I am very long, 17 years now without ever selling a share, very confident of Apple's future and mine. Since I don't sell, dividends are the only way I can make money on my shares. Before the dividends my wife always was saying when are we going to benefit from owning Apple. Now she understands why I never sold shares.
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Post by incorrigible on Feb 4, 2017 17:12:57 GMT -8
An almost $250 billion cash hoard is completely excessive from what the business needs. Return it to shareholders or deploy it some way that brings value to the shareholders. Holding as cash at almost 0% interest is worthless. It's the shareholder's money and not Apple's. If need be, have a vote.
I know it's overseas and a tax repatriation holiday is necessary to avoid excessive taxation.
[/r]
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Post by tuffett on Feb 4, 2017 17:47:19 GMT -8
Hello - perhaps an ignorant question: As much as I appreciate the cash I receive from dividends, I view them as wasteful for the company (particularly a large one-time dividend). I don't really see how they improve the long term price of AAPL, since people can simply buy in and sell out during distribution dates. I've viewed acquisitions and buy backs (tho impact on AAPL has been debatable) as considerably more strategically valuable. There seems to be a lot of support on this board for increased dividends and even a single large dividend upon repatriation. However if my position is correct that dividends can be exploited, and therefore don't help long term share price, what's the reason for so much support. If we view it as "our money", then shouldn't we consider that for every dividend-deserving long-term holders, there are many transient buyers who exploit the dates for just the dividend? In other words for us to receive some pennies, we're throwing away many many dollars to exploiters. Therefore, it would make more sense if that dividend money is instead used in ways that benefit the company's long term outlook (along with long-term shareholders), I realize there are traders on this board (and I used to be one nearly 20 years ago), but you can't argue that dividends are intended for traders - so this question is regarding long term holder value. The stock generally drops by the amount of the dividend on ex-dividend day, so buying in for the dividend and selling isn't a winning strategy. The dividend allows you to maintain your ownership stake in the company and also get paid in the process. That is critical to a lot of people, especially to those who rely on a somewhat steady income stream from their investments.
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Post by tuffett on Feb 4, 2017 17:48:58 GMT -8
An almost $250 billion cash hoard is completely excessive from what the business needs. Return it to shareholders or deploy it some way that brings value to the shareholders. Holding as cash at almost 0% interest is worthless. It's the shareholder's money and not Apple's. If need be, have a vote. I know it's overseas and a tax repatriation holiday is necessary to avoid excessive taxation. [/r] It's crazy to think how much Apple's cash alone would generate if interest rates ever normalize to historic levels. 4% would be $10B/year, which is close to what they pay out in annual dividends...
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 4, 2017 20:12:08 GMT -8
An almost $250 billion cash hoard is completely excessive from what the business needs. Return it to shareholders or deploy it some way that brings value to the shareholders. Holding as cash at almost 0% interest is worthless. It's the shareholder's money and not Apple's. If need be, have a vote. I know it's overseas and a tax repatriation holiday is necessary to avoid excessive taxation. [/r] It's crazy to think how much Apple's cash alone would generate if interest rates ever normalize to historic levels. 4% would be $10B/year, which is close to what they pay out in annual dividends... Ha, the Fed could never allow rates to go back to 4%. The US owes too much debt, and most of it is now in short term notes that are susceptible to rate shocks. $20 trillion at 4% is $1.6 trillion a year just in interest payments, about half of federal tax revenues. Not to mention what it would do to housing prices. Which is why a 4%+ Apple dividend would be so attractive to investors, CD's are stuck in the 1.X% range indefinitely.
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Post by mace on Feb 4, 2017 21:23:03 GMT -8
...people can simply buy in and sell out during distribution dates... Media likes to say so but I don't understand why. Dividends are taxed at 15%-20% for long term and at income tax for less than 1 year. So why do people want to buy and sell just to get the dividends? Moreover, stock price usually decline by the same amount as dividend once ex-dividend. Where is the benefit?
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Post by mace on Feb 4, 2017 21:34:54 GMT -8
...I've viewed acquisitions and buy backs (tho impact on AAPL has been debatable) as considerably more strategically valuable. There seems to be a lot of support on this board for increased dividends and even a single large dividend upon repatriation... I support increased dividends and strategic acquisition of small companies for talents and critical technologies. No to share buybacks and large dividend upon repatriation. I deploy dividends to either purchase other dividend paying stocks or accumulate to buy rental property (mainly in Austin). Is my diversification strategy. So I'm very against share buyback because it forces me to time the sale of shares to raise money for diversification. I understand the tax reasoning behind supporting share buy back and not dividend... I hope Trump would do away with the silly dividend tax as it is double taxation... company paid dividends with after-tax money and then receivers of dividends like us get tax again!
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2017 10:32:59 GMT -8
Their are many reasons to be bullish on Apple. But the iPhone is still the main reason. 10 years ago it cost $600. It is now slightly more to own one. Yet in those years the functional use has increased. So in the bigger picture it's cost of ownership has dropped given its many useful and necessary functions. Consumers get that and that is why we have a record number of switchers despite a drop in growth rates.
I attended a sweet 16 party last night. Everyone of the 20 teenage girls there at an iPhone. 8 years ago only the most affluent teenager owned one.
The internet and social media is driving adoption. But overtime function such as ID, keys, and medical reasons will trump social media, music, and World Wide Web.
Apple can improve the iPhone 100% besides function. Longer battery life, waterproofing, better screens, better camera, making it lighter and thinner, will all help this revolution that is only in the early stages.
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Post by longsince98 on Feb 5, 2017 13:38:19 GMT -8
if my position is correct that dividends can be exploited, and therefore don't help long term share price, what's the reason for so much support. Thanks to all who shared their perspectives
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Feb 5, 2017 14:47:47 GMT -8
I could use some help understanding this paper. Evidently it is the foundation of the Republican plan that Trump is advocating, the plan that is being called a "border tax" www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2010/12/pdf/auerbachpaper.pdfWhat I was able to glean from it seems to imply that Apple would not pay tax on sales outside the U.S. Parts of this seems pretty well thought out and vastly different from how the proposal is being described in the media.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 5, 2017 15:24:42 GMT -8
Shout out to chinacat - GO PATS! This was posted by the Harvard Coop earlier ... seems like there is some divine intervention going on ... was actually seen in the sky today!
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Post by tuffett on Feb 5, 2017 19:30:07 GMT -8
Can anyone explain why teams make such boneheaded moves in the Super Bowl? If the Falcons just ran the ball once or twice and kicked a field goal when they were inside the 30 - game over. Why on earth would they pass and risk a sack or interception?
Also, why on earth were they starting plays with 15-20 seconds left on the play clock? The ineptitude is just mind-blowing.
Epic comeback, but entirely preventable if Atlanta's coaching staff had any sense at all.
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Post by gtrplyr on Feb 5, 2017 20:34:09 GMT -8
Can anyone explain why teams make such boneheaded moves in the Super Bowl? If the Falcons just ran the ball once or twice and kicked a field goal when they were inside the 30 - game over. Why on earth would they pass and risk a sack or interception? Also, why on earth were they starting plays with 15-20 seconds left on the play clock? The ineptitude is just mind-blowing. Epic comeback, but entirely preventable if Atlanta's coaching staff had any sense at all. Hate to play Sunday evening quarterback but ... I gotta agree. The Falcons were clearly hanging on for dear life at the end of the game ....why not put 3 on the board and make the Pats score twice ? Gonna be a LONG offseason for those guys and their fans. As much as I dislike the Pats .... gotta say that was one hell of a comeback and fantastic game.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Feb 5, 2017 20:34:26 GMT -8
Shout out to chinacat - GO PATS! This was posted by the Harvard Coop earlier ... seems like there is some divine intervention going on ... was actually seen in the sky today! Thanks, Phoebes! Divine intervention, indeed, plus a lot of heart.
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