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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 14, 2012 18:37:23 GMT -8
I'm starting to get worried about my April 13 590-600 BCS. I think I opened the position up too soon when AAPL was at 590. Options can be a scary place when you're in a bear market. I think I am worried just because it was my first options trade. I have APR'13 680/700, 685/705, 690/700 (different accounts). They are decimated, and I'm not at all worried. Because I know even in a bear market, we'll have at the very least a sucker's rally / upwave to 650. If you're still apprehensive then, that's the place to lighten up.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 14, 2012 18:38:44 GMT -8
And what is worse than no accountability - you get sites like Benzinga or Business Insider which just regurgitate the same incorrect articles but with an additional sensationalist twist. It really is disgusting. No fact checking - nothing - terrible. With respect, they do it to the upside too, except that most on here benefit when they do it, so nobody complains. They are equal opportunity spreaders of exaggerated claims. What Birdie said. After JUL'12 earnings, I expected these prices. It's diabolical that they arrive AFTER a run to 705. Similarly, before we ran to 644 (the first time), we all would have been thrilled with 520s post-APR'12 earnings...if only we hadn't seen (and fallen from) those higher levels BEFORE earnings. Yes, the down is relentless. But this year, the up has also been relentless. We just need to get better at mitigating the effects of being on the wrong side of the trend. And the stupid news media just spins whatever crap they can to explain the inexplicable.
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Post by tradermac on Nov 14, 2012 18:43:12 GMT -8
(...)My question for the board, at this point, with peanuts left in my account, is it better to put that 15k into some straight options, maybe an April 600 or should I get a spread like April 640/650. Any other suggestions would be welcome. This whole ordeal is putting a huge mental strain on me and I'm neglecting the family because of it. With the holidays coming up, I don't want to ruin this special time for the kids stressing over the markets. I want to just put on a position and forget it, hopefully after jan earnings, some sanity will come back. I am so, SO sorry to hear of your losses. All MHO: NO on the unhedged options. Down OR endless sideways will bleed them mercilessly. Spreads are stupid cheap here, and if you must, you can always unhedge some portion in a confirmed uptrend...we do not have that now...until proven otherwise, this is still falling-knife mode. That same line of reasoning, I prefer the JAN'14 spreads...if you must, you can always roll those to closer expirations in a confirmed uptrend. Meanwhile, it's far less stressful enduring drawdowns when you know you have 13 months to recover. Thanks for the advice! I'll prolly roll out starting tomorrow. Btw checked out Avi's site. I swear he looks like the Rock. Lol.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 14, 2012 18:43:44 GMT -8
I'm starting to get worried about my April 13 590-600 BCS. I think I opened the position up too soon when AAPL was at 590. Options can be a scary place when you're in a bear market. I think I am worried just because it was my first options trade. You'll be fine. You just need to be 601 to collect, and we'll probably be there in the next 30 days.
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Post by cambrose on Nov 14, 2012 18:51:32 GMT -8
I am now reserved to the fact that I will likely take a large loss on my Jan 13 calls. Still hoping to pull them out of the fire but if not, a good earnings and guidance should allow my Aprils to recover most if not all the losses. If nothing else, I've gained a very expensive education. Makes the cost my University education seem like a year in grade school. Something clicked today so I've been busy writing notes...
I WILL NOT BUY UNHEDGED CALL OPTIONS! I WILL NOT BUY UNHEDGED CALL OPTIONS! I WILL NOT BUY UNHEDGED CALL OPTIONS! I WILL NOT BUY UNHEDGED CALL OPTIONS! I WILL NOT BUY UNHEDGED CALL OPTIONS!
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 14, 2012 18:53:25 GMT -8
My optimistic theory (I have many) is that September front-ran October this year. October was the month everyone wanted to hold except the EOs, as it turned out. Last year, November and December were a soft patch for AAPL. Perhaps December 2012 can front run January 2013? I don't think the institutions REALLY think AAPL is going to lay an egg this quarter, so the real question is timing. Just as the EOs play chicken with each other with AMZN--as in, who starts to sell--they could be playing a different game of chicken with AAPL, as in who starts to buy? I concur.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 14, 2012 18:57:45 GMT -8
(...)Institutions are in no hurry to start buying AAPL again in light of the macro picture. When Apple starts to move north, we may need seat belts. Catalysts are few and far between now and Jan. earnings from Apple. Then again, Apple has shown in the past it can move without catalysts. Concur again.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 14, 2012 19:10:36 GMT -8
For some reason I can take a day like today better than many that we have had in the past 2 months. AAPL gave the signal that the market was going to tank. The DOW has lost 1100 points. 260 more points and it will be a full 10% correction. The question is, does AAPL get dragged down with the market, or does it show some strength and signal the market has just about hit bottom. I hear several talk about AAPL moving fast when all this passes, I don't see it. The math, TA, won't let it move but so far. It won't go from embedded oversold to embedded overbought. I just hope the market gets some strength right now.
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Post by capablanca on Nov 14, 2012 19:22:45 GMT -8
Hmmmm...just a cross-market technical observation here... The USD appears to be putting in the right shoulder for an H&S top. QE3 launches this week, so that would make sense...currency deflation and all. Well...well...well...the counterpart to that, economic-theory-wise: stocks and commodities inflate.
Anyone here want some candy? This was posted yesterday by LMIP. One of the problems that accrues when we have a format where everything is all in one thread is that slowpokes like me have difficulty contributing in a timely fashion The USD is commonly referred to in the media as "up" or "down" based upon its performance relative to a basket of other fiat currencies mostly Euro and Yen (the DSX). (I'll buy your grandson's watercolor for $50 if you will buy my granddaughter's crayon.) To properly understand the dollar's value, it must be compared to something which is not manipulated by the EOs (good luck finding that). Gasoline, gold, food, tuition, and etc. are all better benchmarks than a basket of paper. The USD is weak and will get weaker. But as it relates to Apple in the short term, it is "strong" because the international currencies that Apple accepts for its products are, generally speaking, weak. Historically, stocks have not done well in periods of high inflation, but do OK in periods of low inflation. Commodities do well in both, but in periods of hyperinflation, governments often issue price controls or "excess" profits taxes which create shortages and miss-allocate capital.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 19:31:13 GMT -8
(...)My question for the board, at this point, with peanuts left in my account, is it better to put that 15k into some straight options, maybe an April 600 or should I get a spread like April 640/650. Any other suggestions would be welcome. This whole ordeal is putting a huge mental strain on me and I'm neglecting the family because of it. With the holidays coming up, I don't want to ruin this special time for the kids stressing over the markets. I want to just put on a position and forget it, hopefully after jan earnings, some sanity will come back. I am so, SO sorry to hear of your losses. All MHO: NO on the unhedged options. Down OR endless sideways will bleed them mercilessly. Spreads are stupid cheap here, and if you must, you can always unhedge some portion in a confirmed uptrend...we do not have that now...until proven otherwise, this is still falling-knife mode. That same line of reasoning, I prefer the JAN'14 spreads...if you must, you can always roll those to closer expirations in a confirmed uptrend. Meanwhile, it's far less stressful enduring drawdowns when you know you have 13 months to recover. There are some spreads for Jan 14 above 850 that have max gain potential of 2000%-3000% - I'm getting tempted...
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 14, 2012 19:47:48 GMT -8
Just to pour salt into the wound, Oil was up $1 today. That is messed up. Also, I have not looked, but how many times in the last 2 months has AAPL been up in the PM only to close down? That move in the DOW today was ridiculous from its high it reversed 255 points.
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Post by podboy on Nov 14, 2012 19:49:08 GMT -8
Sorry for the dumb question, here it goes. I play around with the options profit calculator so I can pick spreads to buy, but is there a way to see how much % up or down you are at any given time? I have 23 april 13 590-600 BCS and it says the 590 = $-71000 and the 600 = $66000. How can I tell what % I am down? IF I decided to sell now or anytime how do I figure out the amount I will receive? Sorry for the stupid question but it has been bugging me. Thanks
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 14, 2012 19:56:08 GMT -8
I wandered over to Nick's site today, no pretty. Someone who has been talking to him in the past, it might be a good idea to talk to him now. Just sayin. He is talking about being unloved, that is a bad sign. I don't know the guy so it is not my place, but he needs a friend it sounds like.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 19:56:10 GMT -8
Just to pour salt into the wound, Oil was up $1 today. That is messed up. Also, I have not looked, but how many times in the last 2 months has AAPL been up in the PM only to close down? That move in the DOW today was ridiculous from its high it reversed 255 points. And FB was UP. How screwed up is the market? FUBAR.
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Post by prazan on Nov 14, 2012 19:58:38 GMT -8
2) Nobody I've seen has reported the actual cannibalization rate of iPad Mini on iPad: 4.8%. So, iPad Mini margins are utterly irrelevant. And probably higher than most people think anyway 29% of 16.6% = 4.8%Although this looks like welcome news, the size of the data sample might caution against drawing too firm a conclusion. Cowen & Co surveyed 1,225 people, which sounds like a lot, but the cannibalization figures come from the 147 (12%) who reported interest in buying. The margin of error is about 8% for a sample of this size. Still, even if the cannibalization figure is 12%, that's a small enough figure to be good news.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 20:00:15 GMT -8
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Post by nkmho on Nov 14, 2012 20:01:06 GMT -8
Sorry for the dumb question, here it goes. I play around with the options profit calculator so I can pick spreads to buy, but is there a way to see how much % up or down you are at any given time? I have 23 april 13 590-600 BCS and it says the 590 = $-71000 and the 600 = $66000. How can I tell what % I am down? IF I decided to sell now or anytime how do I figure out the amount I will receive? Sorry for the stupid question but it has been bugging me. Thanks ($66000-$71000)/2300 = $2.17 loss per spread An Apr 590/600 BCS goes for about $2.88 from what I'm seeing right now from my broker, so I'm guessing you paid $5.05 ($2.88+$2.17). That means you are down $2.17/$5.05 = 43% right now.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 14, 2012 20:01:29 GMT -8
And FB was UP. How screwed up is the market? FUBAR. Crap Mercel, I had to look. It was not just up, it was up 12 freakin %. Crapppppppppp!
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Post by nkmho on Nov 14, 2012 20:03:39 GMT -8
And FB was UP. How screwed up is the market? FUBAR. Crap Mercel, I had to look. It was not just up, it was up 12 freakin %. Crapppppppppp! FB lockup expired today, right?
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 14, 2012 20:05:10 GMT -8
I wandered over to Nick's site today, no pretty. Someone who has been talking to him in the past, it might be a good idea to talk to him now. Just sayin. He is talking about being unloved, that is a bad sign. I don't know the guy so it is not my place, but he needs a friend it sounds like. I believe Nate is a good guy and has a good heart. I was sad to see the way he was treated by members of this board. He is trying to lean about Apple and trading. Let's strive to be inclusive and positive to all of the posters on this board.
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Post by nkmho on Nov 14, 2012 20:08:09 GMT -8
I wandered over to Nick's site today, no pretty. Someone who has been talking to him in the past, it might be a good idea to talk to him now. Just sayin. He is talking about being unloved, that is a bad sign. I don't know the guy so it is not my place, but he needs a friend it sounds like. I believe Nick is a good guy and has a good heart. I was sad to see the way he was treated by members of this board. He is trying to lean about Apple and trading. Let's strive to be inclusive and positive to all of the posters on this board. I think you're referring to Nate there, not Nick ( nanseninvestements.com). I don't think Nick has ever posted here.
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Post by applemuncher on Nov 14, 2012 20:09:48 GMT -8
I believe Nick is a good guy and has a good heart. I was sad to see the way he was treated by members of this board. He is trying to lean about Apple and trading. Let's strive to be inclusive and positive to all of the posters on this board. I think you're referring to Nate there, not Nick (http://nanseninvestements.com). I don't think Nick has ever posted here. Yes, Nate. My bad. Thanks for the correction.
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Post by rosie on Nov 14, 2012 20:11:00 GMT -8
I wandered over to Nick's site today, no pretty. Someone who has been talking to him in the past, it might be a good idea to talk to him now. Just sayin. He is talking about being unloved, that is a bad sign. I don't know the guy so it is not my place, but he needs a friend it sounds like. I think he is doing the self reflection thing and advocating patience for all of us. While we sweat it out here I believe he is in Thailand at a resort with his wife for a several weeks long vacation with daily swimming, massages and occasional looks at the market. Not to worry.
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Post by podboy on Nov 14, 2012 20:16:27 GMT -8
Sorry for the dumb question, here it goes. I play around with the options profit calculator so I can pick spreads to buy, but is there a way to see how much % up or down you are at any given time? I have 23 april 13 590-600 BCS and it says the 590 = $-71000 and the 600 = $66000. How can I tell what % I am down? IF I decided to sell now or anytime how do I figure out the amount I will receive? Sorry for the stupid question but it has been bugging me. Thanks ($66000-$71000)/2300 = $2.17 loss per spread An Apr 590/600 BCS goes for about $2.88 from what I'm seeing right now from my broker, so I'm guessing you paid $5.05 ($2.88+$2.17). That means you are down $2.17/$5.05 = 43% right now. Why do you divide by 2300. Damn I lost 43%, I shouldn't have asked lol. Its crazy cause I bought at 595, I guess thats options for ya.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 14, 2012 20:37:24 GMT -8
I think he is doing the self reflection thing and advocating patience for all of us. While we sweat it out here I believe he is in Thailand at a resort with his wife for a several weeks long vacation with daily swimming, massages and occasional looks at the market. Not to worry. Rosie, go to his site. His post today is concerning.
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mark
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Post by mark on Nov 14, 2012 20:41:38 GMT -8
2) Nobody I've seen has reported the actual cannibalization rate of iPad Mini on iPad: 4.8%. So, iPad Mini margins are utterly irrelevant. And probably higher than most people think anyway Irrelevant? If Apple sells 10M iPad minis at an ASP of $350, and a margin of 30%, that means that out of ~56B in sales, 3.5B of that has only a 30% margin. And why would you say it is "higher" than we think? Doesn't the iPad mini have everything the iPad 2 has inside of it? But at a lower sales price.
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Post by bryanyc on Nov 14, 2012 20:51:17 GMT -8
([/quote] AAPL is still a leading indicator for overall market direction. I would bet AAPL makes a turn around before the overall market does. [/quote]
That is a good bet for sure
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Post by Lstream on Nov 14, 2012 20:55:37 GMT -8
I wandered over to Nick's site today, no pretty. Someone who has been talking to him in the past, it might be a good idea to talk to him now. Just sayin. He is talking about being unloved, that is a bad sign. I don't know the guy so it is not my place, but he needs a friend it sounds like. I believe Nick is a good guy and has a good heart. I was sad to see the way he was treated by members of this board. He is trying to lean about Apple and trading. Let's strive to be inclusive and positive to all of the posters on this board. When someone posts the same whiny stuff at least 100 times, of course he is going to be treated badly. Especially when just as many posts offering advice were totally ignored. No surprises there. It was damn tiresome. If all of us bitched and moaned about how much this downturn has hurt us, it would completely ruin the content here.
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Post by bryanyc on Nov 14, 2012 21:02:36 GMT -8
Sellers may be getting tired. Maybe. I am not a seller and I am tired. lol, me too. At least we have seen this freak show before. This is, however, a pretty good one, one of the best for sure! I will be so glad when it is over. If we hit 1000 next year I'll even host in NYC. Forget Vegas.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 14, 2012 21:05:48 GMT -8
When someone posts the same whiny stuff at least 100 times, of course he is going to be treated badly. Especially when just as many posts offering advice were totally ignored. No surprises there. It was damn tiresome. If all of us bitched and moaned about how much this downturn has hurt us, it would completely ruin the content here. My rusty 2 cents: It's not like people didn't try to understand. But you gotta meet somewhat close to halfway. There are experienced traders and investors with decades of investing, thousands of trades or both under their belts, on an individual basis. When their non-advice advice is being completely ignored, something's up. AAPL and the stock market are NOT for everyone. nate's self-deletion (twice) reflects this. I wish him well. Everyone wins this way, including him.
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